Search found 9428 matches

by MIflyer12
Thu Jun 17, 2021 1:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Vietnam Airlines is said on the brink of bankruptcy
Replies: 20
Views: 4993

Re: Vietnam Airlines is said on the brink of bankruptcy

LAX772LR wrote:
Nice, sounds like a great time to launch expensive TPAC ultralonghauls in completely unproven markets with tons of low-priced connecting competition....

Oh, and all the posts in early covid about how VN was state backed and primed for robust expansion.

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by MIflyer12
Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: BA to split from IAG ?
Replies: 39
Views: 9795

Re: BA to split from IAG ?

While it's obvious how BA helps IAG overall, I'm still scratching my head on any benefit in the inverse. Anyone? They get some greater economies of scale of fleet/parts/supplies buys. They get reduced price competition on UK-Ireland and UK-Spain routes. That's all I've got. The European carrier gro...

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by MIflyer12
Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order
Replies: 163
Views: 27078

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

There was a rumor last year Boeing would cancel Delta's leases on their 717s in return for acquiring 40 white-tail 737 MAXs. Given the age of Delta's A320s, the 737 MAX 8 made some sense in this space. Instead, as some have pointed out, these could be 737-800s and 900ERs. One can't think of 10-yr o...

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by MIflyer12
Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order
Replies: 163
Views: 27078

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

I am curious how this plays out for their WB future plans. All we hear about is them retiring their smallest WB type and now this rumor about buying more of their largest. Not a very “capacity diligent Delta” thing to do. I could see this leading to a swap of new build 359s for 339s. We shall see… ...

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by MIflyer12
Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SBY Growth
Replies: 17
Views: 2055

Re: SBY GROWTH

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
With 30,000 residents and only 650,000 on the whole of the DELMARVA, not a big catchment area. I’ve driven a number of times, amazingly empty for the east coast.


That, and BWI a 2-hr drive from SBY.

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by MIflyer12
Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order
Replies: 163
Views: 27078

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

737-800s or 900ERs would be fine. Can't imagine they would want -700s at almost any price. They may get some MAX 8s but I doubt the first bunch would be used. It was $62 million, actually, to cancel the order for the four used LATAM A350s. https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton1/2020/05/26/delta-ca...

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by MIflyer12
Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates 5.5bn Loss
Replies: 65
Views: 10752

Re: Emirates 5.5bn Loss

From a quick look at the financials in the annual report the net result is overwhelmingly an operating loss, not due to asset write-downs of aircraft, parts, etc. It looks like only about $128 million (AED 500 million) was from an aircraft impairment charge. So, if they're going to have a significa...

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by MIflyer12
Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates 5.5bn Loss
Replies: 65
Views: 10752

Re: Emirates 5.5bn Loss

From a quick look at the financials in the annual report the net result is overwhelmingly an operating loss, not due to asset write-downs of aircraft, parts, etc. It looks like only about $128 million (AED 500 million) was from an aircraft impairment charge. So, if they're going to have a significan...

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by MIflyer12
Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EU, U.S. Agree to Five-Year Truce in Boeing-Airbus Trade Dispute
Replies: 20
Views: 3184

Re: EU, U.S. Agree to Five-Year Truce in Boeing-Airbus Trade Dispute

This makes no sense to me. If the concern is keeping China out, shouldn't the agreement allow subsidies in equal amount to spur the development of new cutting edge airliners that China couldn't compete with? No, if a Chinese manufacturer attempts to sell airliners in the EU or US, this would allow ...

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by MIflyer12
Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates 5.5bn Loss
Replies: 65
Views: 10752

Re: Emirates 6bn Loss

Boiler905 wrote:
I wish we could see their cargo and charter revenue contribution during the pandemic, because they must have been strong given how much worse the results could have been.


Cargo revenues were up 50+%. See the Annual Report in the OP's link.

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by MIflyer12
Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EU, U.S. Agree to Five-Year Truce in Boeing-Airbus Trade Dispute
Replies: 20
Views: 3184

Re: EU, U.S. Agree to Five-Year Truce in Boeing-Airbus Trade Dispute

The New York Times quotes Katherine Tai, U.S. Trade Representative: But she said the agreement set limits on the subsidies that the European Union would be allowed to provide to Airbus, and she warned that the United States would reimpose billions of dollars in tariffs if subsidies by European Union...

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by MIflyer12
Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021
Replies: 1372
Views: 245614

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

So interesting email... B6 returning to its hub strategy come fall Fat lady is singing for a lot of these routes if they don’t touch New York/ Newark Boston LA Orlando San Juan or Lauderdale/Miami As I love to point out… They simply don’t have the aircraft for the large scale expansion they launche...

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by MIflyer12
Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: BA to split from IAG ?
Replies: 39
Views: 9795

Re: BA to split from IAG ?

While it's obvious how BA helps IAG overall, I'm still scratching my head on any benefit in the inverse. Anyone? They get some greater economies of scale of fleet/parts/supplies buys. They get reduced price competition on UK-Ireland and UK-Spain routes. That's all I've got. The European carrier gro...

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by MIflyer12
Mon Jun 14, 2021 5:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Airlines in advanced talks on purchasing 100-150 737MAX
Replies: 250
Views: 41591

Re: United Airlines in advanced talks on purchasing 100-150 737MAX

CALTECH wrote:
" United is expecting to take deliveries of 40 MAX jets in 2022 and 54 in 2023. "


Forty in 2022 confirms the declaration in the annual report filed 3/1/2021.

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by MIflyer12
Mon Jun 14, 2021 3:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: GE, Safran announce new airliner engine for the mid 2030s
Replies: 51
Views: 5670

Re: GE, Safran announce new airliner engine for the mid 2030s

So, does this presage the timing for MAX and/or 320neo replacements?

Twenty years for a 20% improvement, and another 15-20 years to replace the prior-gen aircraft: this is why we're going to need a CO2 surcharge on fuel and/or tickets to get to carbon-neutral by 2050.

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by MIflyer12
Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA Expands California->Florida (LAX-TPA/RSW, SFO-RSW)
Replies: 47
Views: 7293

Re: UA Expands California->Florida (LAX-TPA/RSW, SFO-RSW)

LAX-TPA/RSW are interesting. #3 at LAX to #4 (mainline) at TPA for 2019, and not even in the top 5 at RSW. LAX-TPA already has DL and AA non-stops.

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by MIflyer12
Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Airlines in advanced talks on purchasing 100-150 737MAX
Replies: 250
Views: 41591

Re: United Airlines in advanced talks on purchasing 100-150 737MAX

Burning question: How close does 1 average weight passenger in a Polaris seat (given all the walls, marble table and cabinet along with under seat hardware etc) come in comparison to a row or two of PE, E+ and naturally regular Economy? I have never eyeballed it or tape measured the comparisons (th...

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by MIflyer12
Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Steven Udvar-Hazy: 737 needs replacement
Replies: 144
Views: 14926

Re: Steven Udvar-Hazy: 737 needs replacement

It'll probably take a couple of years before investors agree to spend the R&D money... How do you think investors agree to spend money? Boeing isn't going to sell 737 replacement bonds. It isn't going to sell xx% of itself to some state investment fund and give that fund CapEx control. Boeing i...

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by MIflyer12
Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How Are Small Airports Managing Their Post-COVID Boom?
Replies: 28
Views: 3507

Re: How Are Small Airports Managing Their Post-COVID Boom?

https://www.transportation.gov/sites/do ... 20ATCR.pdf
-->

FlyingElvii wrote:
4,5, and SEVEN hour delays for Allegiant in VPS tonight.
Ouch.... That had to hurt.


Bust Allegiant if you want. Jan-March '21 it had a better on-time rate than B6. It had a lower cancellation rate than UA or WN.

https://www.transportation.gov/sites/do ... 20ATCR.pdf

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by MIflyer12
Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How Are Small Airports Managing Their Post-COVID Boom?
Replies: 28
Views: 3507

Re: How Are Small Airports Managing Their Post-COVID Boom?

So it got me thinking, how are all these (for all intents and purposes) small US airports, handling their post-COVID boom? Places like VPS, BZN, FCA, PNS, etc. that have had a ton of capacity, flights, airlines add stuff to, while not being able to catch up facility wise. We also know rental cars a...

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by MIflyer12
Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines invests in up to 350 eVTOLs
Replies: 47
Views: 7544

Re: American Airlines invests in up to 350 eVTOLs

At least the word investment isn't usurped, they're really investing some money. The large order is just PR. UALFAson : eVTOLs are for local transportation, 100 miles is enough. It isn't an investment until money changes hands. What they have is an announced intent to invest $25 million. An intent ...

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by MIflyer12
Fri Jun 11, 2021 12:36 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JFK and the lack of low-cost carriers
Replies: 81
Views: 9075

Re: JFK and the lack of low-cost carriers

Yes, I believe it is exactly a price and slot issue. Slots less so at the height of corona, but JFK is more convenient for domestic flughts for relatively few peole vs LGA, and is much more expensive to fly to for an airline than EWR. EWR is sadly more expensive then JFK. People in return though do...

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by MIflyer12
Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: WN Adds SYR
Replies: 20
Views: 4807

Re: WN Adds SYR

I don't this should be predicted to be a sleazy quid pro quo, of the form 'How 'bout you add a flight to CAE for me?' https://skift.com/2015/09/09/the-chairmans-flight-that-got-uniteds-ceo-fired/ Schumer's primary mechanism for 'helping' a carrier is with legislation. That's public record, and (at l...

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by MIflyer12
Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus focus is on evolving existing jet models, CEO says
Replies: 129
Views: 17241

Re: Airbus focus is on evolving existing jet models, CEO says

Nor do a lot of airlines have billons to invest in new fleets, so the decision to delay the next decade is sensible. If manufacturers aren't giving carriers a compelling financial argument to replace older fleets (forget the 2% PIPs), carriers will just buy for growth and as frames reach end of ser...

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by MIflyer12
Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2021
Replies: 771
Views: 98008

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

I'd love to see utilization data for the 757s and 739s. 757s aren't exactly heavy in TATL, Hawaii, or northern S America at this point. It's not like DL has a lot of 2,600+ sm domestic routes.

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by MIflyer12
Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest COS announcement and performance
Replies: 16
Views: 2178

Re: Southwest COS announcement and performance

BMcD wrote:
Thanks for the numbers. Guessing April would be a bit better than March. What is the target load factor that airlines try to go for?


If you want to measure success with a single number, it's PRASM, not load factor (or yield).

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by MIflyer12
Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AR returns to JFK
Replies: 26
Views: 4799

Re: AR returns to JFK

usdcaguy wrote:
Upon arrival in EZE, they will be able to check in directly at their hotel instead of having to wait for hours as usual.


Have another look at that EZE arrival time.

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by MIflyer12
Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2021
Replies: 771
Views: 98008

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

gsg013 wrote:
At least that I see this week ATL-BNA has gone all 737-900ER

ATL-BNA 8x daily 737-900ER
BNA-DTW 4x daily 717-200


That strikes me as an odd use of 739s. Couldn't they just throw seven (less fuel efficient) 757s at it, and keep the 739s for longer routes where efficiency matters?

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by MIflyer12
Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS
Replies: 96
Views: 15116

Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

Five million is a long way away. (I won't say never.) You don't add flights today for population levels 25 years from now. Ask SJC, BNA, or LAS the value of AA (or HP) commitments 25 years into the future.

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by MIflyer12
Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Airlines in advanced talks on purchasing 100-150 737MAX
Replies: 250
Views: 41591

Re: United Airlines in advanced talks on purchasing 100-150 737MAX

Revelation, just where did the Boeing 737-7 order United couldn't refuse go? Did they refuse? I even remember DoC stepping in to prevent CSeries getting a foothold. Things progressed since then I guess. Your recollection might be a little... selective. The duties proposed by the Dept of Commerce wo...

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by MIflyer12
Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA and Airline Staffing Levels
Replies: 39
Views: 4710

Re: AA and Airline Staffing Levels

In a way, I struggle to understand the staffing issues, and not just at AA either. I thought the billions given to them by the government were to essentially maintain their payrolls. I'm not saying there were no staff reductions, but I can't wrap my arms around the apparent magnitude of the reducti...

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by MIflyer12
Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus, Air France want EU green funds used for jets
Replies: 6
Views: 551

Re: Airbus, Air France want EU green funds used for jets

I wouldn't bet against Airbus and AF here. It will be a fine example of regulatory capture with commercial interests leveraging the French state. As you note, the environmental failings of this approach have already been called out.

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by MIflyer12
Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS
Replies: 96
Views: 15116

Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

AA overall would have a bigger FF base than DL. I think they will protect AUS aggressively. It is a 5 million population city in the future, among the wealthiest. So it is a major strategic prize, even if it loses money right now. I won't say the losses are irrelevant, but AUS is such a big strateg...

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by MIflyer12
Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS
Replies: 96
Views: 15116

Re: AA launches 13 new routes from AUS

I can't figure out if this is part of a larger strategy to develop AUS into a DFW-Satellite/Annex type of a focus city or is specifically related to Austin O/D in general. Some of these recently announced routes are relatively underserved (like AUS-JAX/IND/CVG) and lack daily, year-round service on...

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by MIflyer12
Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA and Airline Staffing Levels
Replies: 39
Views: 4710

Re: AA and Airline Staffing Levels

I was skeptical at first but was able to confirm via a colleague who was flying out on the same flight but just to MIA. Sometimes, stuff happens. Someone calls in sick, someone no shows etc. Perhaps only one person had the requisite training. The original source was reputable and the colleague is a...

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by MIflyer12
Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:07 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA at FAI (Fairbanks) operational issues
Replies: 33
Views: 7445

Re: AA at FAI (Fairbanks) operational issues

The OP took pains to lay out the scope of underperformance in detail. (Thanks for that!) This would be a very improbable run of bad luck if it's just 'AA being AA'. It seems more likely these routes are poorly structured for crew or aircraft utilization, where delays lead to timing out. We'll see if...

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by MIflyer12
Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:58 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Airlines in advanced talks on purchasing 100-150 737MAX
Replies: 250
Views: 41591

Re: United Airlines in advanced talks on purchasing 100-150 737MAX

It seems to confirm the dominance of the A321 and the good economics of the -8. While Airbus can secure the highly profitable A321 sales, Boeing can place large volume of 737-8s. It also shows why Boeing thinks about a new large single aisle. The MAX-10 is just not competitive with operators that u...

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by MIflyer12
Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021
Replies: 2238
Views: 283856

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Not to stir the pot but with Breeze launching XNA, how much longer do we think WN will stay out of that market? Let's turn the question around. What routes XNA-xxx could WN operate to yield a station with 12+ flights a day? There's little demand to DEN, CHI, or WAS. 1X LAS, 1X DAL and 1X MCO doesn'...

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by MIflyer12
Wed Jun 09, 2021 3:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL Bastian presentation 3 June '21
Replies: 4
Views: 2177

DL Bastian presentation 3 June '21

Regrets if this saw significant discussion elsewhere. On June 3, 2021, Ed Bastian, Chief Executive Officer of Delta Air Lines, Inc., will present at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference. The presentation to be used in conjunction with Mr. Bastian’s remarks is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to thi...

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by MIflyer12
Wed Jun 09, 2021 12:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Spirit to Launch MIA with 30 Routes
Replies: 126
Views: 18945

Re: Spirit to Launch MIA with 30 Routes

If WN decided to turn MIA into the next DEN... We've got somebody upthread wondering how NK will be able to run even 30 flights/day, and now you're positing that 50 gates are just going to fall from the sky. Yeah, right. WN can't turn MIA into DEN-sized operation - it doesn't have the ops, the fore...

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by MIflyer12
Wed Jun 09, 2021 2:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Spirit to Launch MIA with 30 Routes
Replies: 126
Views: 18945

Re: Spirit to Launch MIA with 30 Routes

I'm very interested in AA's response to this, and that's if they even have the means to. Adding MIA-MYR/BGA, FLL-AUS/LAS/LGA/RDU/BNA/BDL/IND/CLO/BOG/MDE :stirthepot: Sure, that will work great - go chase the customers of the low yield airline with your high cost airline. One might hope AA Rev Mgmt ...

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by MIflyer12
Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Spirit to Launch MIA with 30 Routes
Replies: 126
Views: 18945

Re: Spirit to Launch MIA with 30 Routes

Yes they are getting attacked by WN in MIA also elsewhere. I think they carriers are trying to ruin AA Some would argue that AA is perfectly capable of ruining themselves. I wasn't going to put it that way, but in any market it's good to be the low-cost producer or to get the highest yields, and sy...

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by MIflyer12
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Aer Lingus Relaunches Miami
Replies: 30
Views: 5420

Re: Aer Lingus Relaunches Miami

Very surprising, had heard this was a very marginal route , probably more suited to an A321XLR once it has the legs ...good luck to EI This is a bulk tourist route. The A321LR would be an absolute disaster. They need the A330s capacity for the lower yields. Anybody have CASM comparison between an E...

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by MIflyer12
Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest Tops Up 737 MAX Order -
Replies: 64
Views: 10602

Re: Southwest Tops Up 737 MAX Order -

So in 2022, WN will take 34 more in addition to the original 30 Max7 deliveries, for a total of 64? Three lavs, no more lavs in the rear galley, unlike on the JetBlue A220. That is some progress. I'll take Southwest and their 32' seat pitch anytime. I guess you never fly on WN 737-700s, then, which...

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by MIflyer12
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021
Replies: 2238
Views: 283856

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

Wn should get however many gates they want and yes everyone I know there common use but WN could get priority to a lot of gates to expand there operation, so it sounds like E might become the WN concourse as you could call it. You REALLY need to review FAA requirements for non-discriminatory access...

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by MIflyer12
Mon Jun 07, 2021 10:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: XWA, Williston, ND new service announcement 6/8
Replies: 48
Views: 5880

Re: XWA, Williston, ND new service announcement 6/8

It's also not like they overbuilt the new airport/terminal. I thought the entire thing was pretty reasonable. That was my impression as I watched the buildout and final reveal. Of course, I also thought Branson Missouri was done quite reasonably too for a smallish airport. It's hard to size airport...

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by MIflyer12
Mon Jun 07, 2021 2:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Porter Airlines Engaged In A Dispute With Owner Of Toronto City Airport
Replies: 39
Views: 8096

Re: Porter Airlines Engaged In A Dispute With Owner Of Toronto City Airport

If Porter is not profitable when operating at "full force", i.e. pre-COVID, then one obvious solution is to shrink to a profitable core of operations while relinquishing some (or many) of their YTZ slots. Shrink to profitability doesn't work outside of bankruptcy. It's too costly to get r...

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by MIflyer12
Mon Jun 07, 2021 11:40 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2021
Replies: 771
Views: 98008

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2021

At this point, I think people are just trying to understand what Delta constitutes as an official 'focus city'. It seems like most airlines' focus cities resemble the airline's expanded route network, but I guess Delta sees it differently. After all, PDX has 4 long-haul international routes from De...

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by MIflyer12
Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:53 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: "Delta's 757s are their biggest liability"
Replies: 100
Views: 20915

Re: "Delta's 757s are their biggest liability"

The orphan pilot group line is rubbish when DL has so many 757, 753, 763 and 764. Check back in 2027. U.S. carriers - all carriers subject to market investor forces - are going to be flying a lot of 15-25 year old planes. They are not economically obsolete. I wouldn't be surprised if DL converted 25...

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by MIflyer12
Sat Jun 05, 2021 2:47 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: R/T PHL-MCO in F - $3,297
Replies: 13
Views: 1332

Re: R/T PHL-MCO in F - $3,297

I'm not going to obsess over a few algorithm-generated edge case fares. I don't expect AA to conduct indidually overseen prices on 200 million segments a year.

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