Search found 6795 matches

by tortugamon
Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:43 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue doesn't fly LAX-SFO?
Replies: 36
Views: 6060

Re: JetBlue doesn't fly LAX-SFO?

In hindsight it would have been better if the DOJ asked for more from AA/US and WN/FL but they didn't. What could DOJ have asked for with respect to the WN-FL merger? WN didn't serve ATL or DCA at all and had a very small presence at LGA. They vacated FL's gates at BWI (which has ample open gates a...

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by tortugamon
Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:56 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue doesn't fly LAX-SFO?
Replies: 36
Views: 6060

Re: JetBlue doesn't fly LAX-SFO?

No one, and I mean NO ONE saw AS buying VX until it happened, and even then it was barely approved by regulators. They won't approve an airline merger that large again, not given how much consolidation has already happened. What do you mean the AS/VX tie up was 'barely approved'? Practically all th...

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by tortugamon
Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: AirAsia X orders 34 more A330neo
Replies: 164
Views: 30906

Re: Air Asia to order more Airbus aircraft?

A CEO must be unemotional and only think of profit and risk. Price, delivery times, and financing will determine the A330NEO's fate at AirAsia. Money isn't a bias. It isn't a want for price, it is negotiations and if Boeing made the offer they should have, Airbus is in a bind. There is no sale leas...

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by tortugamon
Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing has given the 3 Major Engine Manufacturers until June 27 to submit their 797 engine proposals
Replies: 313
Views: 47289

Re: Boeing has given the 3 Major Engine Manufacturers until June 27 to submit their 797 engine proposals

Doubtful. 7ab at those seating values if two class would be nearing 767-400 length. That is getting structurally inefficient. With a reduced height ovoid cross section the fuselage tube will be more suseptable to bending so optimal finenesd ratio will be less than normal. This points further to an ...

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by tortugamon
Wed Jun 27, 2018 4:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?
Replies: 291
Views: 42992

Re: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?

You don't need to wait five more years, the answer was available five years back. Is 777X a replacement for A380 or 77W, or a tradeoff. A380 sold 300 copies 77W sold 700+ copies. That will remain as most successful targe twin. 777 family sold 1500+ copies, but it is irrelevant to this analysis. At ...

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by tortugamon
Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:10 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will Ryanair order 737-9/10 MAX
Replies: 29
Views: 6220

Re: Will Ryanair order 737-9/10 MAX

I don't think Ryanair has any interest in adding another flight attendant which they would have to if they seated more than 200 passengers. The Max 200 was designed with them in mind and I think they will stick with that for the next decade.

tortugamon

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by tortugamon
Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The Problem With United FAs. Even I'm Fuming At This!
Replies: 240
Views: 69010

Re: THE Problem With United FAs. Even I'm Fuming At This!

"While I’m certainly no stranger to anonymous online criticism, having worked as a journalist my entire career, this particular situation has led to an awful lot of name calling, ranging from “spoiled millennial brat” to “pathetic liberal snowflake.” Those Fox News comments really are something...

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by tortugamon
Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Moxy - News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 409
Views: 61967

Re: David Neeleman Raising Funds for New U.S. Airline

Exciting news. This guy is a pro and there is a definite need/opportunity for this kind of product. Wishing them the best.

tortugamon

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by tortugamon
Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:05 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Dubai Air Show 2017 - Boeing Orders pt2
Replies: 91
Views: 21588

Re: Dubai Air Show 2017 - Boeing Orders pt2

Do you have any explanation as why there is a kind of initial cold welcome for the 787-10 At over 210 orders before Entry Into Service it appears airlines are excited. Other than the 787-8, -9, and A350-9 I am trying to think of an existing widebody model that has entered service with more orders. ...

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by tortugamon
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates places order for 40 787-10's
Replies: 206
Views: 51173

Re: Emirates places order for 40 787-10's

Interesting link as Sir Tim notes an 8 hour range. That implies quite a hit in takeoff performance. That implies the 3500nm range circle I posted earlier, is probably about right. I am just not sure he needs anything more than 8 hours of range. The article I am posting below quotes him saying 8.5 h...

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by tortugamon
Sun Jul 30, 2017 3:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Q2 2017 Results Roundup
Replies: 20
Views: 3700

Re: US Airline Q2 2017 Results Roundup

The disparity between the big 3 and the rest; the gap is so large, there isn't anyway to catch them. So if you are a niche player, they will be confined to that and hopefully do not attempt to go out of it or they will be squished like a bug on the windshield. The larger carriers make solid $ but t...

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by tortugamon
Tue Jul 18, 2017 2:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Snares Big 787 Order From Emirates, Aerospace Analyst Says
Replies: 5
Views: 2348

Re: Boeing Snares Big 787 Order From Emirates, Aerospace Analyst Says

Thanks Revelation. I share the sentiment. I had not seen that earlier thread. I agree that if it based on Strat Aero; its a nothing burger and we should move on. BizJournal Seattle isn't aviationweek or flightglobal or anything but they aren't terrible so I am just wondering if it is the same source...

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by tortugamon
Tue Jul 18, 2017 2:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Snares Big 787 Order From Emirates, Aerospace Analyst Says
Replies: 5
Views: 2348

Boeing Snares Big 787 Order From Emirates, Aerospace Analyst Says

The article linked below states: "It's a 'done deal' says the analyst who suggested the Dreamliner order may be unveiled at this fall's Dubai Air Show." - but the rest is behind the paywall. It does reference 75 aircraft however. http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2017/07/17/boeing-sn...

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by tortugamon
Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:15 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit
Replies: 40
Views: 5361

Re: Qantas reports first half results, $852 million profit

What is their net profit after tax? As that a truly comparable figure.. I get frustrated by that to. Here you go: "Qantas has posted a 25 per cent profit slide, amid competitive pressures and ongoing redundancy payments as part of its "transformation program". The airline posted a fi...

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by tortugamon
Sat Jan 28, 2017 5:36 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA Plans LAX Push in Comeback Effort
Replies: 226
Views: 58031

Re: UA Plans LAX Push in Comeback Effort

Okay, it may just have been publicized in the public realm, but the discussion of a potential LAX T-9 began on this website 2 years ago. And I'll give a hat tip to ldvaviation . It was he who intimated the UA angle, IIRC, 6 to 9 months ago. Time flies: http://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t...

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by tortugamon
Sat Jan 28, 2017 5:33 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue reports 4th quarter - Expenses up, profits down
Replies: 24
Views: 3593

Re: JetBlue reports 4th quarter - Expenses up, profits down

I am tempted to start a new thread that states: "New York-based JetBlue Airways earned a full-year 2016 net profit of $759 million, up 12% over net income of $677 million in 2015. The airline’s full-year operating margin increased 0.8% year-over-year to 19.8%. JetBlue’s 2016 revenue grew 3.4% t...

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by tortugamon
Sat Jan 28, 2017 4:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA Plans LAX Push in Comeback Effort
Replies: 226
Views: 58031

Re: UA Plans LAX Push in Comeback Effort

Anyone have a depiction of terminal 9? Most of the stuff I have is super dated. Too little too late. Why would UA now decide to build up LAX after years of decline? To compete with 2 other airlines? They have a giant, uncontested hub up the road and will maintain an O and D-based (sans JFK) operatio...

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by tortugamon
Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:58 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL announces record 2016 profit $6.1 Billion USD
Replies: 74
Views: 12801

Re: DL announces record 2016 profit $6.1 Billion USD

The fact is that Delta is a very well run airline and part of the reasons for their profits over the years is that they are experts at right sizing aircraft to a market... paying down their debt so they are not paying much interest (and interest payments reduce profit) Well said and another point w...

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by tortugamon
Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL announces record 2016 profit $6.1 Billion USD
Replies: 74
Views: 12801

Re: DL announces record 2016 profit $6.1 Billion USD

In the current environment one can no help but turn a profit. Tell that to Alitalia. Regardless, the point isn't that most airlines are profitable; its that DL made $6.1 Billion ($4.4 Net) in Profit (Income) in 2016 which is comparable to the combined profit of all European and the Middle Eastern a...

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by tortugamon
Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing defines 737 MAX 10
Replies: 678
Views: 114592

Re: Boeing defines 737-10MAX

If they did a big stretch then I would have doubted the MoM's viability. A full stretch would have been in 752 country which meant that a clean sheet MoM would have started in 753 territory and that makes it a one-member family because I don't think something the length of a 754 would work with one ...

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by tortugamon
Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:56 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus cuts A380 production for the 2nd time
Replies: 120
Views: 15740

Re: Airbus cuts A380 production for the 2nd time

Compare the two programs post-2000. The A380 has done pretty well vs the 747. The A380 is a $20 Billion program and the 748 was ~$5 Billion. Both had over runs. One will deliver less than 300 and the other less than 200. Both were mistakes but one is an order or two of magnitude worse than the othe...

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by tortugamon
Thu Dec 29, 2016 9:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus cuts A380 production for the 2nd time
Replies: 120
Views: 15740

Re: Airbus cuts A380 production for the 2nd time

The first RR powered A380 is currently on its way to DXB. Right. And as EK and Rolls came to commercial and technical terms with Rolls regarding the engine we can assume that this is not an issue between them that caused the delay being discussed. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-07/e...

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by tortugamon
Thu Dec 29, 2016 4:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus cuts A380 production for the 2nd time
Replies: 120
Views: 15740

Re: Airbus cuts A380 production for the 2nd time

JetBuddy wrote:
There seems to be a lot of bashing and negative posts coming from our American friends.


Judge not according to the appearance, but judge righteous judgment - John 7:24

tortugamon

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by tortugamon
Wed Dec 21, 2016 9:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: First Boeing 787-10 enters final assembly
Replies: 150
Views: 41674

Re: First Boeing 787-10 enters final assembly

From the article: The gear change enables the aircraft to rotate about an axis of the set of aft wheels rather than at a central point of the bogie beam where the main strut is located. The configuration, which was developed for the 777-300ER to ensure adequate field performance for very long-haul o...

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by tortugamon
Wed Dec 21, 2016 7:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DOT Proposes remedies for Aeromexico - Delta ATI JV
Replies: 96
Views: 13262

Re: DOT Proposes remedies for Aeromexico - Delta ATI JV

These JVs must be super valuable to agree to give up as much as they did.

Who do we think will get them: Volaris, Interjet, JetBlue, and Southwest seem like the most likely. AS probably as well.

tortugamon

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by tortugamon
Wed Dec 21, 2016 9:04 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: James Hogan CEO EY to go
Replies: 61
Views: 9788

Re: James Hogan CEO EY to go?

Absolutely makes sense thought I thought they would give him longer to show the merits of their moves. Most of those Euro investments have been dogs and that is hard to escape. Especially when you see EK right across the way.

Wish him well, he seemed like a good chap.

tortugamon

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by tortugamon
Wed Dec 21, 2016 7:20 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: First Boeing 787-10 enters final assembly
Replies: 150
Views: 41674

Re: First Boeing 787-10 enters final assembly

The proportions look great. To be honest I think the 789 and the A359 have similar proportion appearances. The 78X is a rather modest stretch of the 789. Its only 5.6m longer vs 10m+ for the 772/3. If those windows above the cargo door were exposed it would make a big difference. Behind the wind the...

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by tortugamon
Tue Dec 20, 2016 12:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: First Boeing 787-10 enters final assembly
Replies: 150
Views: 41674

Re: First Boeing 787-10 enters final assembly

They should be good for close to 5500nm/12hrs . That covers a lot of territory. Indeed. What does DL cover out of ATL, 150 destinations? 175? I think I count 3 current destinations that would push a 78X to its limit. Which kinda makes sense as they have never been a large 777 operator. I don't know...

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by tortugamon
Thu Dec 15, 2016 8:04 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta LAX terminal plans updates and discussion thread
Replies: 474
Views: 130757

Re: Delta LAX Terminal Plans Revealed

And where will these flights depart from??? I thought they had new gates they were constructing in terminal 4. This whole Delta thing makes no sense. Its a whole lot of inconvenience for several other airlines, just to benefit one airline. At the moment, ALL T1-T8 gates are used. This means that if...

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by tortugamon
Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing announces new 777 production rate cut
Replies: 59
Views: 9267

Re: Boeing announces new 777 production rate cut

keesje wrote:
Over the last 10 years most large 777 operators bought XWB instead of 777X.

Over the last 10 years most large A330 operators bought 787 instead of A330neo

Both statements are of similar low value.

tortugamon

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by tortugamon
Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DOT Proposes remedies for Aeromexico - Delta ATI JV
Replies: 96
Views: 13262

Re: DOT Proposes remedies for Aeromexico - Delta ATI JV

Pretty clear that they don't want to approve this ATI but if DL goes through with it then we will have an idea of just how valuable these arrangements are. Personally I would be surprised if they accept the MEX divestitures. B6, WN, and AS would be elated if they did I bet.

tortugamon

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by tortugamon
Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future 787 variants?
Replies: 171
Views: 20732

Re: Future 787 variants?

Boeing being somewhat experienced in freighter and conversion engineering has probably included some light weight provisions for that day, if it ever comes.. personally I won't hold my breath I am interested in why people think a 787-based freighter is so unlikely. There has been a freighter progra...

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by tortugamon
Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Iran Air and Boeing announcing agreement to order 50 Boeing 737's and 30 Boeing 777's
Replies: 214
Views: 46657

Re: Iran Air saying deal signed to order 50 Boeing 737's and 30 Boeing 777's

Please. He called it a "deal"; a deal doesn't have to be a firm order. Please, no he called it an order. I boldened it for you both: The order already placed with Airbus is larger than the Boeing deal. The Airbus deal was for 21 A320ceos, 24 A320neos, 27 A330ceos, 18 A330-900neos, 16 A350...

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by tortugamon
Tue Dec 13, 2016 7:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing announces new 777 production rate cut
Replies: 59
Views: 9267

Re: Boeing announces new 777 production rate cut

Obviously sad news but great timing. The Iran order is now over 4.25 months of production at that time. That is a decent amount of motivated and concerned citizens. tortugamon I agree, political timing. One issue about being as technical as I can be is I forget about political opportunity. If the I...

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by tortugamon
Tue Dec 13, 2016 7:47 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What happened to the 777X orders?
Replies: 323
Views: 37691

Re: What happened to the 777X orders?

But both these models are failures compared to the A320 and 787 launches. Rather a high bar? Again we are talking about whether or not a program is a failure not a runaway success (sales-wise) like the A350/787-are. I think the A380 has sold much better than the 77X so far relative to the market po...

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by tortugamon
Tue Dec 13, 2016 7:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Iran Air and Boeing announcing agreement to order 50 Boeing 737's and 30 Boeing 777's
Replies: 214
Views: 46657

Re: Iran Air saying deal signed to order 50 Boeing 737's and 30 Boeing 777's

Iran-can-buy-planes-in-euros]Iran can buy planes in euros Its probably wise not to quote Iran news. Even if we did, later in the same article: "“We’re going to have to figure out a way collectively for them to be able to finance the assets,” Bentrott said. “It’s no different for us that it is ...

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by tortugamon
Tue Dec 13, 2016 12:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Clark: The World Needs More A380's
Replies: 255
Views: 49085

Re: Clark: The World Needs More A380's

I'd want to quibble with the $10bn and argue for a 777x-like ~$5-7bn, but I'm mostly guessing there. Good reasons to believe it would be harder to match A380 with an optimal wing than 777 (root chord would be smaller for optimal wing, requiring belly fairing and/or fuselage rework. 777x root chord ...

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by tortugamon
Mon Dec 12, 2016 10:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing announces new 777 production rate cut
Replies: 59
Views: 9267

Re: Boeing announces new 777 production rate cut

Obviously sad news but great timing. The Iran order is now over 4.25 months of production at that time. That is a decent amount of motivated and concerned citizens.

tortugamon

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by tortugamon
Mon Dec 12, 2016 10:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Iran Air and Boeing announcing agreement to order 50 Boeing 737's and 30 Boeing 777's
Replies: 214
Views: 46657

Re: Iran Air and Boeing announcing agreement to order 50 Boeing 737's and 30 Boeing 777's

I'm curious about a "what if" scenario - I'm sure some of you would know the answer: What if the incoming administration nixes this deal and then a leasing company based in Europe or Asia comes in and places an identical order and then promptly leases the planes to IR when they take deliv...

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by tortugamon
Mon Dec 12, 2016 10:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Iran Air and Boeing announcing agreement to order 50 Boeing 737's and 30 Boeing 777's
Replies: 214
Views: 46657

Re: Iran Air saying deal signed to order 50 Boeing 737's and 30 Boeing 777's

Whether or not they're firm orders, the difference between them is only nine frames as 80 frames will be directly ordered from Boeing and another 29 will be leased from third-parties, resulting in the total being 109 for Boeing to 118 for Airbus. I would argue that we do not yet know what the Airbu...

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by tortugamon
Mon Dec 12, 2016 8:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Iran Air and Boeing announcing agreement to order 50 Boeing 737's and 30 Boeing 777's
Replies: 214
Views: 46657

Re: Iran Air saying deal signed to order 50 Boeing 737's and 30 Boeing 777's

I don't believe I ever said that they "ordered the A380". Here: The order already placed with Airbus is larger than the Boeing deal. The Airbus deal was for 21 A320ceos, 24 A320neos, 27 A330ceos, 18 A330-900neos, 16 A350-1000s, and 12 A380-800s. This order is worth more than $25 billion a...

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by tortugamon
Mon Dec 12, 2016 7:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What happened to the 777X orders?
Replies: 323
Views: 37691

Re: What happened to the 777X orders?

Can we assume that now that the 77X has more orders (4 years before EIS) than the A380 has had in the 16 years since its launch that whoever thinks the 77X is going to be a failure also believes the A380 (a program that cost about 3 times more) is an even bigger failure? Unfortunately I am not opti...

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by tortugamon
Mon Dec 12, 2016 7:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Clark: The World Needs More A380's
Replies: 255
Views: 49085

Re: Clark: The World Needs More A380's

Perhaps not, if they want to retain maximum discounts. I think you will see top up orders from a few of the current 777X customers not limited to EK. I was not doubting that these 777X customers would place follow on orders, just the timing. 4 years before EIS and there hasn't exactly been a flurry...

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by tortugamon
Mon Dec 12, 2016 6:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What happened to the 777X orders?
Replies: 323
Views: 37691

Re: What happened to the 777X orders?

Can we assume that now that the 77X has more orders (4 years before EIS) than the A380 has had in the 16 years since its launch that whoever thinks the 77X is going to be a failure also believes the A380 (a program that cost about 3 times more) is an even bigger failure? Unfortunately I am not optim...

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by tortugamon
Mon Dec 12, 2016 5:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Iran Air and Boeing announcing agreement to order 50 Boeing 737's and 30 Boeing 777's
Replies: 214
Views: 46657

Re: Iran Air saying deal signed to order 50 Boeing 737's and 30 Boeing 777's

If the US Congress blocks aircraft sales to Iran, it will affect Airbus too for sure, as there are US parts in practically all aircraft. In the case of the bill passed in the House, it hurts Boeing immensely by not only losing market share, but it effectively hands a more massive sales to Airbus. I...

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by tortugamon
Mon Dec 12, 2016 5:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Iran Air and Boeing announcing agreement to order 50 Boeing 737's and 30 Boeing 777's
Replies: 214
Views: 46657

Re: Iran Air saying deal signed to order 50 Boeing 737's and 30 Boeing 777's

If the US Congress blocks aircraft sales to Iran, it will affect Airbus too for sure, as there are US parts in practically all aircraft. From what I've read.... You should read more atcsundevil. Saying that Iran has ordered the A380 is irresponsible. They haven't. There is plenty of information out...

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by tortugamon
Sun Dec 11, 2016 9:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future 787 variants?
Replies: 171
Views: 20732

Re: Future 787 variants?

I personally doubt we'll ever see a tanker bigger than the 767...By the time the 767 shuts down, I think the USAF will be primarily unmanned so there won't be very much of a demand for KC-10 stage lengths. You could be right but I am less optimistic at the growth of such programs and the military's...

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by tortugamon
Sun Dec 11, 2016 1:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future 787 variants?
Replies: 171
Views: 20732

Re: Future 787 variants?

Boeing has already confirmed a 789F. It would be a mistake to have new freighters at additional lengths in the family. Some version of the 787-10ER is inevitable. Whether it is slow and steady changes like the A333 or a more substantial improvement like the 773 vs 77W is up for debate. It will happe...

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by tortugamon
Sat Dec 10, 2016 11:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Clark: The World Needs More A380's
Replies: 255
Views: 49085

Re: Clark: The World Needs More A380's

I find the 2026 time frame much more interesting. I don't understand the note about 2026 personally. The Bloomberg article states: " It’s due to take 25 aircraft through 2019 and 25 more from 2021." I personally believe it would take an extremely foolish airline to take delivery of an A38...

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by tortugamon
Sat Dec 10, 2016 8:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airline profits to drop, oil prices to rise in 2017
Replies: 38
Views: 5532

Re: Airline profits to drop, oil prices to rise in 2017

I agree that higher oil prices are unlikely to bankrupt any major World airline. It could be very uncomfortable for many but it seems very apparent that $100/barrel oil is in the past and even if it came back many airlines are better prepared to handle it. That being said AAL and UAL have increasing...

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