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by Stitch
Sat Jun 12, 2021 12:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

What's stopping Boeing from XLR'ing the MAX 10? By that I mean installing a larger integrated center tank. There may or may not be the space available to add an "Aft Center Tank" like on the A321XLR and even if there is, without an increase in the Gross Operating Weights (like MTOW) any a...

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by Stitch
Fri Jun 11, 2021 5:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

NameOmitted wrote:
What does this mean from an accounting perspective? Am I correct in that most of the costs involved with the delay have already been accounted for in last year's numbers, making these potentially remarkably profitable now?


"Remarkably" profitable? Probably not.

But it is booked revenue.

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by Stitch
Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:21 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: USAF VC-25B News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 232
Views: 25929

Re: USAF VC-25B News and Discussion Thread

The article mentions Boeing has claimed the delay is due to COVID and the bankruptcy of GDC Technics LLC and is seeking the funds to cover the additional costs of operating under COVID restrictions and I presume seeking a new contractor to continue the interior outfitting originally contracted to GD...

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by Stitch
Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

I think discounts are largely based on supply and demand. Competition, commonality, order size, backlog's, slots, (lack of) alternatives play a roll. Giving 60-70% discounts on A321NEO, A220-300.. why? Maybe not so much at this stage. The A321 is a great plane, but it is not so great that Airbus ca...

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by Stitch
Tue Jun 08, 2021 2:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Bottom line is there still is good money to be made for both A and B even as discounts from list approach 70%. :yes: By the mid-2010s, Airbus and Boeing were routinely starting discussions at half-off list for new customers or small top-up orders and if you were a "Favored Nation" custome...

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by Stitch
Tue Jun 08, 2021 2:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021
Replies: 388
Views: 77005

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

IMO that the regulators caused a multi year slip is far of the mark. I assume the delay occurs because Boeing tried some shortcuts again. It's public knowledge that the certification program for the 777X has changed and is much more expansive and prolonged than Boeing originally planned. Part of th...

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by Stitch
Mon Jun 07, 2021 10:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

I find your explanation rather unlikely. Canceling the frames cut the discount that Boeing gives on delayed frames. The max the airlines can collect from Boeing are the payments with the order and progress payments. All such compensation by Boeing is paid as discount on frames delivered. Delay comp...

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by Stitch
Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

If the airlines having ordered the MAX earlier would speculate to get the MAX later, why cancel and not defer? Because they needed to reduce their near-term capital exposure due to the "COVID collapse" and the grounding of MAX likely triggered clauses in the sales contract that allowed th...

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by Stitch
Sun Jun 06, 2021 6:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

IMO Boeing needs a new narrow body family just to compete. MAX had significant orders prior to the grounding and the "COVID Collapse", and I doubt that was because airlines preferred another ~5000 A320 than Airbus could deliver. Once airline traffic recovers, MAX should start selling agai...

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by Stitch
Fri Jun 04, 2021 1:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Reading the article, it sounds like Boeing is starting to lay the groundwork for the NSA/737RS and starting with where the current pain-point is: above 200 seats. I do hope that a 5000nm Design Range is not the "baseline", but instead what the theoretical maximum is with an "ACT"...

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by Stitch
Thu Jun 03, 2021 7:02 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2021
Replies: 352
Views: 39063

Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2021

Yeah that was awesome to see "Of Course I Still Love You" during the final descent and then actual touchdown on the pad.

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by Stitch
Sun May 30, 2021 5:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FAA Confirms Boeing Halts 787 Deliveries
Replies: 108
Views: 24341

Re: FAA Confirms Boeing Halts 787 Deliveries

Is it safe to say that the last overall trouble free Boeing launch was the original 777 in the mid 90s? Not really. They had to spend double what they planned to get it out the door on time and once they did, the production meltdown destroyed the margins on the initial planes. Some believe Boeing h...

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by Stitch
Sun May 30, 2021 5:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021
Replies: 388
Views: 77005

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

For me the mystery deepens with the information, that the test frame build to collect performance data (apart from other tests), has only flown 48 hours since 08/03/2020. What is happening with the 777-9 test flight program? What mystery? The whole program took a two year slip. It doesn't make sens...

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by Stitch
Sun May 30, 2021 2:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021
Replies: 388
Views: 77005

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

We can talk about NAMS testing all day long. But nobody will convince me that in all the test flights done, fuel burn would be data not collected. Of course data has been collected and it's been fed back into the computer models, but that data may or may not be that representative of an actual reve...

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by Stitch
Sat May 29, 2021 2:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021
Replies: 388
Views: 77005

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

By that we can conclude that the data in question is below par? I am not sure the 777X has started NAMS testing, which is where Boeing generates the data that is used to validate the performance of the airplane against the agreements laid out in the sales contracts. So at this point, there is likel...

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by Stitch
Fri May 28, 2021 2:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021
Replies: 388
Views: 77005

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

One very interesting question is, how out of spec are the already build ones and who will take them? I would presume the contracted customers will once the frames are brought to the final specification via change incorporation. I guess LH will take the first official delivery now? Will they take th...

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by Stitch
Mon May 24, 2021 8:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Who bought 747-8i LN 1435 LH ntu
Replies: 15
Views: 6704

Re: Who bought 747-8i LN 1435 LH ntu

aristoenigma wrote:
What kind of VIP customer stays unidentified for two plus months?


One that doesn't want to advertise (yet) that it just bought a very expensive airplane?

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by Stitch
Mon May 24, 2021 4:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Who bought 747-8i LN 1435 LH ntu
Replies: 15
Views: 6704

Re: Who bought 747-8i LN 1435 LH ntu

If the USAF bought it, there should be a line-item in the last Defense Budget and one would think somebody in the media would have picked that up.

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by Stitch
Thu May 20, 2021 9:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

A DOW of 132.5 tonnes would suggest an OEW in the region of 128 - 129 tonnes.... I'd guess typical A350 OEW's to be in the region of 136 - 137 tonnes Rgds Fair enough and sounds about right. Turkish publicly posted their weight sheets for various models in their fleet that listed the average OEW an...

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by Stitch
Thu May 20, 2021 4:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Rubbish again...No 330neos are that heavy. https://hifly.aero/public/uploads/2019/06/HiFly_A330-9H-SZN.pdf From that PDF: Typical Dry Operating Weight: 132,505kg And for the record, I did note CS-TKY's lower OEW in my original post: The Hi-Fly A330-900s configured with a small Business Class and th...

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by Stitch
Wed May 19, 2021 3:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

If the A339 OEW is 135t it is dead. It is not the 787 that would have killed it but the A359. A longer aircraft able to take more passengers at the same weight. So let me get this right, Airbus has positioned the A339 at the same OEW as the A359 with less passengers because they feel like it? Hi-Fl...

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by Stitch
Tue May 18, 2021 4:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

...s far as I can tell Boeing pulled a blinder by talking about the 767 and 757 during the development program and what they were actually targeting was the A330 territory, the noise of the "new 767" masked the fact that is was actually a "new A330" The original 7E7 was sized ar...

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by Stitch
Mon May 17, 2021 10:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

I doubt most airlines agree. Especially a big one in Atlanta. My hunch (thats all it is) is that most 787s are used on "longer" routes most of the time. The 787s are supplanting the 767s on the "longer" routes because of their greater efficiency. Only the US3 and JP2 operate 767...

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by Stitch
Mon May 17, 2021 3:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

FluidFlow wrote:
I only see two large 767-300F operators (FedEx and UPS) that really use a lot of 767.


Do not forget Amazon.

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by Stitch
Mon May 17, 2021 3:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

I think the most important factor is that the aircraft needs LD3 capability going forward, especially as this would be a great base for a freighter. LD3s might be important for passenger carriers, but the world's largest freight airlines all have the 767 as a foundation in their fleet so I don't th...

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by Stitch
Mon May 17, 2021 2:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Imho Boeing appeared to try to "force " airline customers to buy the 787, even though it is way too big and heavy to be a 767 replacement, by making it just a smidgen too big to allow the engines to be used for a 767 refresh. The 787 is so much more efficient than a 767 that the extra emp...

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by Stitch
Sun May 16, 2021 9:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

I’m just saying that what decision Boeing makes about the standard config. Passenger comfort will be second thought Well even Boeing is starting to realize that airlines don't always have passenger comfort in mind and are addressing that to some effect by allowing for wider seats on the 737 MAX and...

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by Stitch
Fri May 14, 2021 2:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

They would get an premium/higher margin over the A321 and have first mover advantage in an segment where there is no competition yet. But that is kind of the point - there is no competition for Airbus in that market segment right now. The A321 might not be the best option (hence Boeing studying NMA...

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by Stitch
Fri May 14, 2021 4:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

744SPX wrote:
Perfect opportunity for Airbus to launch a re-winged A322 using slightly uprated versions of the GTF and LEAP-X...


Until Boeing actually launches NMA, I don't see the need to. They would just be spending money developing a plane to secure sales they already would have had with the A321.

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by Stitch
Thu May 13, 2021 10:42 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Jet engines in the 2020s and 2030s.
Replies: 14
Views: 3716

Re: Jet engines in the 2020s and 2030s.

What kind of "a little extra armor" is going to contain a blade-off event like that? Considering the nacelle of a GE9X can handle one of those massive blades coming off, I would think something similar would be sufficient to protect the aft fuselage. Especially if they are mounted like Bo...

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by Stitch
Thu May 13, 2021 5:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Sounds like maybe UltraFan is currently dimensioned for around 70-80,000 pounds of thrust for use with large widebodies like the 787 and A350 as a re-engine option to replace the existing Trents.

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by Stitch
Mon May 10, 2021 8:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021
Replies: 388
Views: 77005

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Western727 wrote:
Thank you, Polot. That makes a lot of sense. I didn't know 779s with only 4 sets of doors existed, either.


You only need the fifth door if you intend to have more than 440 seats. Adding the fifth door allows up to 495 seats.

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by Stitch
Mon May 10, 2021 8:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 747 Production/Delivery Thread - 2021
Replies: 127
Views: 37279

Re: Boeing 747 Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

I doubt it would show as unidentified on Boeing's public orders page if the USAF had taken it. honestly it makes perfect sense because 1- OPSEC 2- Something that the public wouldn't know about until after it has happened. The E-4B replacement program is not a "black project" so a purchase...

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by Stitch
Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing aims to evenly spilt narrowbody aircraft market share
Replies: 234
Views: 20032

Re: Boeing aims to evenly spilt narrowbody aircraft market share

There is a fallacy that Boeing is not capital constrained, or that it may not have issues raising capital for a new program. Take a $15-20B loan/bond on top of the current debt and this company is done. Yet, this is what they need to do. Well evidently the capital markets are dumb enough to allow B...

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by Stitch
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:38 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: A few questions about Boeing's old rumor 757-Plus and 767X
Replies: 3
Views: 623

Re: A few questions about Boeing's old rumor 757-Plus and 767X

Regarding the "757-Plus", best guess based on aerospace media reports is that Boeing has added a third member to the proposed NMA family - NMA-5 - which will seat around 225 in two classes and would be sized around the A321-200/757-200 with a maximum range of around 5000nm. We've been disc...

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by Stitch
Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 747 Production/Delivery Thread - 2021
Replies: 127
Views: 37279

Re: Boeing 747 Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Not sure what date you would consider it ‘first delivered’ since it’s an NTU (no snark, just wondering if there was a contractual date or something because my memory doesn’t go back that far lol). A7-HHE (LN1439) seems to be the first 748i/BBJ delivered, while 9K-GAA is the earliest 748i/BBJ based ...

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by Stitch
Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

If they can't pay for airports, they also can't pay for airplanes. Personally I think it'll all end up in tears for the Chinese. They'll keep making lots of loans that won't get repaid. They'll have lots of influence over a really poor and unstable place. It might help secure raw materials, but tha...

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by Stitch
Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

China will now be the future big player number three. At least for their own domestic aircraft requirements. Quite relevant for the 737 market. Because, of course, Airbus doesn't sell, much less assemble, A320s in China. :) Seriously, COMAC will be a threat, especially for Chinese domestic operatio...

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by Stitch
Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Again IMU the A350XWB was a bit of stealth project. Everybody talked up the disadvantages vs the Dreamliner ( to be made from goldplated promises, unbeatable :-) What the pundits missed was that it really targeted bigger fish. IMU, the failure of the A340NG to find any serious customer interest and...

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by Stitch
Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

I wonder how much wider you would have to go than the MC-21's fuselage to do 2-2-2. There may be a sweet spot where it would be viable against a spacious 3-3 like the -21 because of the massive decrease in turnaround times (assuming the fuselage is on the longer side). Using the McDonnel-Douglas DC...

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by Stitch
Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

I thought the NMA-6 was 225 seats and 5K range. The NMA-7 was 265 seats and 4.5K range, presumably a 6m stretch trading for 500 nm less range. Has Boeing indicated what the NMA-5 is? Calhoun says a closer competitor to the A321. That could be 200 seats and 4K range with a smaller engine and wing th...

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by Stitch
Mon Apr 19, 2021 2:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777 Production/Delivery Thread - 2021
Replies: 223
Views: 61050

Re: Boeing 777 Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

seahawks7757 wrote:
Wait, that's the last 77W ever? Truthfully I'm shocked at that. Thought they still had a few more on the books


There are outstanding orders for Pakistan International Airlines, but it is presumed they will not take delivery so Boeing will not build them.

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by Stitch
Thu Apr 15, 2021 4:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Boeing can't offer "just another NB craft" and make it stick that this offer is so much better than an A321xyz. And yet we have posters suggesting they do just that.... :scratchchin: Boeing might finish with a turnabout like on the Sonic Cruiser and just carry over the "Super Duper&q...

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by Stitch
Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

keesje wrote:
A NMA OEW of 72t is an ambitious target, if it was much lighter Boeing would have specified lower thrust engines.


I would expect MTOW has a much greater impact in gauging engine thrust than OEW.

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by Stitch
Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

While I agree that in 40 years much has changed, the weight differences are not that much on OEW when comparing old vs new (A330NEOvs787 or 737vsA220). When looking at the differences, 10% seems quite ambitious already... The A350-1000 is not as large as the 777-300ER, but still generally can hold ...

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by Stitch
Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

(I assumed a NMA 72t OEW, because Boeing send out an RFQ for 45-52k lbs engines. The 3900NM, 767-200 weighed 80t.. 72t OEW is an ambitious assumption.) It is sounding like NMA will not be a clone of the 767 in terms of dimension and modern design and production (3D printing, new materials) can redu...

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by Stitch
Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing 2021 orders
Replies: 116
Views: 23651

Re: Airbus and Boeing 2021 orders

Oh that’s strange, they have a lot of 737-800’s that will eventually need replacing! That they have kept their options implies they are still interested in the MAX as a replacement for those frames, but I expect due to COVID their current traffic does not support expansion, which is what the orders...

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by Stitch
Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:04 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

1. Boeing got it right with the 777 because of how smooth the launch went. They got it right with the 777 because they spent twice as much as they planned. And they still had a production meltdown in 1997 and there are claims the program might have gone into a Forward Loss position during that time...

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by Stitch
Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

But the A321 can also field the GTF and GTF and LEAP will see PiPs in the 2020ies. Well Pratt has been willing to offer GTF for multiple OEM platforms so no reason they could not also offer it on NMA. Pratt says it can scale so they should be able to create a GTF dimensioned for NMA and that would ...

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by Stitch
Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2115
Views: 218239

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Bigger with an advance of a half-generation in tech suggests to me something bigger than LEAP-1A and sized for the needs of the platform, rather than a throttle pushed LEAP-1A. Okay - then a LEAP-2B incorporating GE9X technology and a larger fan would give NMA-5 a propulsive advantage over the A321...

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