Search found 1970 matches

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by speedbored
Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Best way to spend 150k Avois?
Replies: 10
Views: 3229

Re: Best way to spend 150k Avois?

Spend it all on beer, wine and spirits at the BA wine club and have yourself a party :)

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by speedbored
Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership
Replies: 1568
Views: 181088

Re: Breaking: Airbus and Bombardier Announce C Series Partnership

We've discussed on this thread that the 787 seems to have had an easy ride in this respect compared to some peoples view of what might have happened given the first several hundred frames were sold well below cost. COST =/= PRICE Boeing did not PRICE the 787 at unfair levels. If costs exceed price,...

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by speedbored
Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership
Replies: 1568
Views: 181088

Re: Breaking: Airbus and Bombardier Announce C Series Partnership

The most interesting thing is what Bombardier's endgame in all of this? The CSeries under the Bombardier is history. Are they going to sell off the CRJ/Q400 for pocket change? I guess BBD can go back to its business jet roots but that market also seems smaller than in past decades. Bombardier and E...

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by speedbored
Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership
Replies: 1568
Views: 181088

Re: Breaking: Airbus and Bombardier Announce C Series Partnership

There no "issues". There are approvals, and they do not have them. This is not a done deal until it has regulatory approval and is signed. Of course there is contract in place, but it is one of intent, not the transaction itself. Approvals that have not yet been obtained are issues that n...

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by speedbored
Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership
Replies: 1568
Views: 181088

Re: Breaking: Airbus and Bombardier Announce C Series Partnership

One thing we don't seem to have discussed is the genie that Boeing may just have let out of the bottle here, that may never get put back Boeing clearly "dumped" hundreds of the early 787's onto the market well below the cost of production, to the tune of a C-Series dwarfing $32Bn of produ...

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by speedbored
Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership
Replies: 1568
Views: 181088

Re: Breaking: Airbus and Bombardier Announce C Series Partnership

I expect Boeing to come out and offer BBD a much better deal. And I expect that it is too late for any competing offers. There is no way that Airbus would have publicly announced this unless the contracts were already in place. The delay to completion will simply be down to completing the minute de...

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by speedbored
Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership
Replies: 1568
Views: 181088

Re: Breaking: Airbus and Bombardier Announce C Series Partnership

This deal has been in the works for quite a long time. I find it hard to believe that Boeing haven't been aware of the negotiations that have been going on, and I personally suspect that a major part of the purpose of the Boeing complaint to the US Dept. of Commerce might have been an attempt to dis...

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by speedbored
Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AF66 CDG-LAX (A388-F-HPJE) diverts to Goose Bay (YYR) with an uncontained engine failure to #4 engine
Replies: 687
Views: 190368

Re: AF66 CDG-LAX (A388-F-HPJE) diverts to Goose Bay (YYR) with an uncontained engine failure to #4 engine

Some good closeups of GP7200s here Thanks for those - excellent images. And it confirms that the fan hub image I posted on the previous page is from a GP7200. |'ve also found a better side-on schematic (from the manufacturer's site): http://drive.google.com/uc?export=view&id=0B7FonaYXcEzFYTNMY0...

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by speedbored
Sat Oct 14, 2017 7:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AF66 CDG-LAX (A388-F-HPJE) diverts to Goose Bay (YYR) with an uncontained engine failure to #4 engine
Replies: 687
Views: 190368

Re: AF66 CDG-LAX (A388-F-HPJE) diverts to Goose Bay (YYR) with an uncontained engine failure to #4 engine

Whilst I am not going claim to being 100% correct, I have been to the engine build line several times and the fan disk manufacturing facility recently. I suggest your looking to far back into the engine. As per the AD it's the Fan Disc/hub that's failed and you can see the area it failed in red. We...

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by speedbored
Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AF66 CDG-LAX (A388-F-HPJE) diverts to Goose Bay (YYR) with an uncontained engine failure to #4 engine
Replies: 687
Views: 190368

Re: AF66 CDG-LAX (A388-F-HPJE) diverts to Goose Bay (YYR) with an uncontained engine failure to #4 engine

one step further forward afaics? ( ps: probably not ) Well I'm definitely not an engine expert but it doesn't look that way to me, especially when you look at the more side-on photos of the damage. I'm pretty sure that the central shaft has sheared off where I have indicated, and the rest of it app...

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by speedbored
Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AF66 CDG-LAX (A388-F-HPJE) diverts to Goose Bay (YYR) with an uncontained engine failure to #4 engine
Replies: 687
Views: 190368

Re: AF66 CDG-LAX (A388-F-HPJE) diverts to Goose Bay (YYR) with an uncontained engine failure to #4 engine

Revelation wrote:
Would be interesting to see where that is in the cut-away drawing I posted above


I think it is probably roughly like this:
Image

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by speedbored
Sun Sep 24, 2017 8:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'
Replies: 1034
Views: 193023

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

max takeoff slot should be restricted to 75% of design goal, and single runway airports up to 80%. I'm sorry to interrupt, but what does it mean? Do they mean, the airport should only assign 75-80% of the available slots? No. It means they should limit the number of slots to 75% of the maximum capa...

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by speedbored
Sat Sep 23, 2017 1:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block
Replies: 270
Views: 27875

Re: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block

$16 million per plane last quarter and that number per plane is increasing. That's not scratching the surface any more. Perhaps, but even at $16m per plane, the amount owed by each frame remaining in the block increases with each delivery. It's expected to get even bigger when 787-10s start deliver...

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by speedbored
Thu Sep 21, 2017 6:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block
Replies: 270
Views: 27875

Re: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block

Deferred costs ARE sunk costs. The 787 cash flow might be free cash flow. Most of what you say is correct, apart from: The 787 cash flow ..... can be used to reduce the deferred costs The deferred costs have already been paid on a cash basis. The only things that can be used to reduce the deferred ...

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by speedbored
Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block
Replies: 270
Views: 27875

Re: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block

'The number of unique city-pair connections exceeded 18,400 in 2016, over 700 more than in 2015 and almost double the connectivity by air 20 years ago.'IATA True. But in the same timeframe, annual passenger traffic has close to tripled from 1.4bn to 3.7bn. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.AI...

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by speedbored
Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block
Replies: 270
Views: 27875

Re: Boeing to accelerate 787 production to 14x per month

I agree. It's way too early to write off the 330neo. In my opinion, the 339 is going to be a great seller. One thing it does for sure, is keep 787 prices in check. Me too. There is no doubt that the 787 rate increase will make it a little harder for the 330neo to compete on availability, but Airbus...

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by speedbored
Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:37 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block
Replies: 270
Views: 27875

Re: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block

The vast majority of it came from their existing cashflows. Wasn't the excess consumed for showing profits all the time? Well the whole point of program accounting is to avoid the high initial production costs from adversely affecting the P&L, causing the company to show a loss (or low profits)...

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by speedbored
Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block
Replies: 270
Views: 27875

Re: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block

It's not a debt. Boeing's already spent the money (the employees don't assemble the 787s for free and the vendors require payment for the materials they provide to allow the employees to do so). They just haven't booked it against their financials yet. That's the definition of debt. Money you owe b...

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by speedbored
Fri Sep 01, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Aviation Photography
Topic: Lens flare killing night shots
Replies: 9
Views: 1068

Re: Lens flare killing night shots

Given that you say you are using a lens hood, no filter, and are avoiding direct sources of light in the field of view then the most likely causes are, imo: a) Direct sources of light that are outside of the field of view but which are still projecting light onto the lens surface. This is more likel...

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by speedbored
Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: RR Builds Next-Gen "Advance 3" Demo Engine
Replies: 44
Views: 18788

Re: RR Builds Next-Gen "Advance 3" Demo Engine

Interesting thread indeed.this demonstration engine does not include the gearbox I assume.ie Simply to test the new core with known 'front and back' parts? I assume this test engine is the one people hope might become a NEO engine for the 380? The Advance engines were never designed to have a gearb...

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by speedbored
Sat Jul 29, 2017 9:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus to cut A380 production to 8 frames in 2019
Replies: 115
Views: 16379

Re: Airbus to cut A380 production to 8 frames in 2019

Point to point is king. Boeing got it spot on with the dreamliner. The A380 was a concept dreamt up in the heyday of tighter squeezed airports that required larger capacity. And whilst that is still true, point to point is taking a lot of that traffic away from the larger hubs. People keep making t...

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by speedbored
Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 323
Views: 26223

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

What market analysts believe that Boeing doesn't have a very good chance of retiring all deferred cost within the life of the program? Do you have a link or source? A simple google search will find you very many links. For example, a number of analysts are quoted in this article: http://www.seattle...

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by speedbored
Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 323
Views: 26223

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

They already have data to support an increase to at least 1500 Do they? If they did then they should already have extended the block. You obviously do not realise that they cannot simply increase the accounting block to cover orders that they hope to get at some point in the future. They can only i...

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by speedbored
Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 323
Views: 26223

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

mffoda wrote:
All in all, the numbers are heading in the right direction wouldn't you say?

Yes and no.

The total deferred costs are reducing (so yes) but the amount per frame left in the accounting block is still increasing (so no).

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by speedbored
Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 323
Views: 26223

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

You need profitability to generate cash to pay dividends and buy back stock. No you don't. Especially if you have a huge pile of deferred costs under program accounting. You can't be profitable unless you're building good products and selling them at a competitive price. Yes you can. There are very...

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by speedbored
Sat Jul 22, 2017 6:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 323
Views: 26223

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Under accrual accounting, Boeing can't sell airplanes for less than the accrued costs. Boeing can compete aggressively and sell zero margin airplanes, but not below that. Full stop. End of story. Boeing can't sell airplanes below cost without triggering reach forward losses. You keep saying "B...

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by speedbored
Fri Jul 21, 2017 9:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 323
Views: 26223

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Cash and accrual/accounting losses are different. Sometimes they are and sometimes they are not - it depends on what you are accounting for. But I was not making any claim about the numbers. I was rebutting your assertion that the definition of a loss is different when talking about cash and accoun...

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by speedbored
Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 323
Views: 26223

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

I think there's different definitions of loss depending on whether you talking about it from a cash or accrual (accounting) basis. Nope. I'm pretty sure that a loss is a loss whether you are talking cash or accounting. However, on an accrual basis, a sale can't be below the per-airplane costs deter...

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by speedbored
Fri Jul 21, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 323
Views: 26223

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

That is one thing I haven't got my head around. The book costs in money value at the time but pay in back 1:1 with current value money. Effectively this deflates the deferred costs naturally. Yes. That is a function of the fact that the cash is spent now and the costs are only deferred for accounti...

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by speedbored
Fri Jul 21, 2017 3:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 323
Views: 26223

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

I would suspect that it may take a hit as the first production -10's come down the line as these will be more costly to build as early examples. I'm sure you are right. But Boeing do seem to have got the distributed supply chain under control now, and I know that they have been selling 787s at far ...

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by speedbored
Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 323
Views: 26223

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Under program accounting rules, Boeing can't sell 787s at a loss and add that amount to deferred production costs. Total deferred production costs have increased because of other development programs. The 787 deferred production costs have not increased for quit a while, even with the development c...

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by speedbored
Fri Jul 21, 2017 12:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 323
Views: 26223

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

I have previously been advised by A.Net Programming Accounting experts that the Accounting Block number is tied to the number of frames that Boeing realistically believes they can sell, and the number can only be increased when they get close to the current number or market forecast for future sale...

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by speedbored
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 323
Views: 26223

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Well there was a $847 million write-off in 2016 , so perhaps more write-offs may follow in the coming years. True but this was for specific frames when they really had no other option but to write them off. Even these write-offs should, arguably, have been made many years sooner than they were. I s...

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by speedbored
Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:40 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 323
Views: 26223

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

In the end it makes little difference in that the 787 deferred production costs, like the A380 development costs, are sunk costs. True if you are only looking at cash flow. The big difference between these two is that the A380 costs have already hit Airbus profits. The ~$30bn of deferred 787 costs ...

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by speedbored
Fri Jul 21, 2017 5:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: British Airspace Full?
Replies: 29
Views: 5027

British Airspace Full?

Article on the BBC suggests that UK air traffic controllers think that our skies are pretty much "full" to capacity. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40669144 Looks like we really need to make some serious progress on re-organising things - we seem to have been talking about it for years...

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by speedbored
Tue Jul 18, 2017 7:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: LGW - main runway closed by burst tyre on TO
Replies: 22
Views: 5925

Re: LGW - main runway closed by burst tyre on TO

If I am not mistaken, the northern taxiway that feeds 8L is too close to 8L and does not allow two wide bodied aircraft to pass each other without possibly clipping their wings together. So for landing or departing wide bodies, the taxi way has to be clear of other wide bodied aircraft, which furth...

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by speedbored
Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model
Replies: 1000
Views: 203397

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Revelation wrote:
Yeah, but:

I'm sure that picture would have been very different if the German engineers had been able to get on with it without the interference of German politicians.

German politicians seem to be equally as bad as politicians everywhere else (except, perhaps, the USA right now).

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by speedbored
Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'
Replies: 1034
Views: 193023

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

The 497 seat layout is the pre-change 4-class layout.
The 544 seat layout adds in the 11 abreast "enhancement".
The 575 seat layout adds the front & rear staircase and crew rest changes.

Nothing underhand going on.

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by speedbored
Thu Jun 29, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Runway 25R "Short"
Replies: 7
Views: 1734

Re: Runway 25R "Short"

I wish I new how to read that lol... is there a quick explanation? Runway 07L/25R Western 1300ft closed. Declared distances: Runway 7L take-off run available 9665ft take-off distance available 9665ft accelerate-stop distance available 9255ft landing distance available 0ft (i.e. closed for landings)...

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by speedbored
Thu Jun 29, 2017 10:26 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Where would EK fly if they could
Replies: 115
Views: 20161

Re: Where would EK fly if they could

Everywhere, of course :)

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by speedbored
Wed Jun 28, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Airbus beefs up A350-1000, A350-900
Replies: 117
Views: 27079

Re: Airbus beefs up A350-1000, A350-900

http://www.aircraft.airbus.com/support-services/airport-operations/aircraft-characteristics/ The A350 ACAP seems to be missing entirely on the Airbus website... possibly being updated. Well it seems to be back now but ..... it's back to the old one from last year. I wonder whether some over-enthusi...

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by speedbored
Sun Jun 25, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus a320 Spolier faulty?
Replies: 1
Views: 755

Re: Airbus a320 Spolier faulty?

Most likely some dirt preventing it seating properly. Could also be an actuator slightly out of adjustment. If you fly enough, you'll see this sort of thing (and often a lot worse than that) surprisingly regularly. It's not a safety of flight issue - the only real impact is a very small amount of ad...

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by speedbored
Sun Jun 25, 2017 8:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 787 Walls moving in turbulence
Replies: 54
Views: 18378

Re: 787 Walls moving in turbulence

I doubt it is shoddy workmanship or poor maintenance. Improvements in computer modelling, and the never ending drive for weight savings, mean that cosmetic structures such as these have been becoming ever more flimsy over the years. A certain amount of flexibility is also designed in, in order to re...

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by speedbored
Sun Jun 25, 2017 7:44 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: 737 MAX 10 and its levered landing gear
Replies: 14
Views: 9787

Re: 737 MAX 10 and its levered landing gear

77west wrote:
So it is not really levered at all, semi or otherwise. It is just telescopic.

I believe it is both.

Telescoping to fit the wheel well and levered to move the rotation point rearwards.

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by speedbored
Fri Jun 23, 2017 7:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10
Replies: 362
Views: 64016

Re: Boeing officially launches 737 MAX 10

I am sure Boeing would prefer a higher BPR engine for the 737 family, but raising the gear introduces a raft of other system changes, all of which need to be designed to current regulations and then certified. Beyond a certain point, the cost of the changes negates the benefits. That's my understan...

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by speedbored
Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'
Replies: 1034
Views: 193023

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

BA said the A380 is too expensive new, which is another way of saying it would buy more if the plane were more efficient. Not necessarily. Even if you ignore the affects of things like interest or inflation, just the different tax treatment of operating costs and capital expenditure can make enough...

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by speedbored
Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 2017 Paris Air Show - Airbus News And Orders
Replies: 264
Views: 74188

Re: 2017 Paris Air Show - Airbus News And Orders

I can understand JL's annoyance - the 737-10 has cost Airbus a not-insignificant number of potential A321 orders from current MAX customers who wanted a 230-seat frame as well as putting downward pressure on future ASPs now that there is real competition (in terms of capacity). I disagree. The A321...

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by speedbored
Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 2017 Paris Air Show - Airbus News And Orders
Replies: 264
Views: 74188

Re: 2017 Paris Air Show - Airbus News And Orders

Why do we have to have the same old AvB "we sold more than you sold" argument after every airshow? Who cares, as long as both manufacturers are selling product? It ought not to be a big surprise if Boeing did sell more than Airbus, given that (a) they have launched a new model and (b) they...

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