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by Matt6461
Fri May 31, 2019 7:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing YouTube: "Airbus, We're Glad You're Here"
Replies: 41
Views: 8142

Re: Boeing YouTube: "Airbus, We're Glad You're Here"

Total BS. The only voices that matter within Boeing at this strategic level are shareholder voices (more precisely, management anticipation of shareholder voices), who all wish Boeing had a secure monopoly. As an aviation fan, let's all celebrate Airbus and castigate Airbus for instigating the most...

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by Matt6461
Fri May 31, 2019 7:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing YouTube: "Airbus, We're Glad You're Here"
Replies: 41
Views: 8142

Re: Boeing YouTube: "Airbus, We're Glad You're Here"

Total BS. The only voices that matter within Boeing at this strategic level are shareholder voices (more precisely, management anticipation of shareholder voices), who all wish Boeing had a secure monopoly. As an aviation fan, let's all celebrate Airbus and castigate Airbus for instigating the most-...

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by Matt6461
Fri Apr 26, 2019 1:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch
Replies: 109
Views: 15663

Re: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch

So only 22 or 23 quarters to go! Rate 14 started this quarter (2Q), so we should see ~14% earning acceleration from that alone. And the mix will continue to improve as 78X deliveries increase and as the few -8 deliveries incorporate the last round of commonality with -9's. If BA sees, say, $35mn/de...

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by Matt6461
Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 Production/Delivery Thread - 2019
Replies: 66
Views: 15138

Re: Airbus A380 Production/Delivery Thread - 2019

I'm gonna say it: best-looking airliner of all time. That's sarcasm, right? No!!!! The turtle motif fits perfectly with the plane's form; the "eye" of the turtle fills in the otherwise blank gap in the upper part of the forward fuselage. I imagine a big Honu floating crystal waters, viewe...

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by Matt6461
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 Production/Delivery Thread - 2019
Replies: 66
Views: 15138

Re: Airbus A380 Production/Delivery Thread - 2019

I'm gonna say it: best-looking airliner of all time.

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by Matt6461
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Norwegian Q1 - Net loss 1.489B NOK ($172million)
Replies: 43
Views: 8235

Re: Norwegian Q1 - Net loss 1.489B NOK ($172million)

Does anyone think it's possible that Norwegian will cease operations before/during this summer? I.e. should I be considering backup travel plans?

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by Matt6461
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch
Replies: 109
Views: 15663

Re: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch

Thanks for that work @ Momo1435 . I've seen some of the operating numbers for the 787-10 versus its competition and it's a really astounding aircraft performing in line with the best of hype. Market intelligence has airlines complaining about the 78X's price over the last few years, so this plane is...

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by Matt6461
Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch
Replies: 109
Views: 15663

Re: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch

The link is dead. I've read analyst figures of $1.04bn in total deferred reduction (production and tooling), implying $30.7mn per frame. It's basically arbitrary whether Boeing apportions production profit to deferred production or tooling, so it's important to look at the total deferred delta inste...

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by Matt6461
Wed Apr 17, 2019 12:25 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA Launches EWR/CPT
Replies: 107
Views: 19374

Re: UA Launches EWR/CPT

Does anybody have any idea of the current PDEW on this route? Both for NYC-CPT and for CPT-North America generally?

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by Matt6461
Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Package of new/used A380's pitched to BA was uncompetitive: Cruz
Replies: 173
Views: 30640

Re: Package of new/used A380's pitched to BA was uncompetitive: Cruz

BA's calculation shows once again that the A380's lack of meaningful efficiency edge prevented it from selling better. For a 12 year lease, a $30-50mn Capex delta works out to annual payments equivalent to 4-8% of A380's annual fuel burn depending on fuel price and utilization. So a slightly better ...

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by Matt6461
Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is it time for Cockpit Video to aid in crash investigation?
Replies: 126
Views: 8587

Re: Is it time for Cockpit Video to aid in crash investigation?

Yeah. Duh.
With a camera mounted outside the cockpit the pilots would be reality TV stars no more than the passengers and cargo - i.e. not at all.

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by Matt6461
Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: MAX certification: new systemic issues identified
Replies: 109
Views: 10998

Re: MAX certification: new systemic issues identified

Is there another hazard/catastrophe around the corner? If the MCAS patch corrects a tendency to pitch up towards stall in high-speed flight then don't we have an unstable aircraft? Is there a danger that, absent 2.5 degree stab authority, the MAX will go into high-speed stall while a cruise captain ...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project
Replies: 235
Views: 32347

Re: Reuters: Rolls Royce withdraws bid for Boeing NMA project

Maybe - hopefully IMO - this is a sign to Boeing to slow down and wait for Ultrafan or not do NMA at all.
"The last direct-drive turbofan ever launched" is a dubious project for 2025 EIS.

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by Matt6461
Fri Feb 22, 2019 12:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
Replies: 870
Views: 104311

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

That, excuse my French, has bugger all to do with my point on the a380-800 wing being a lot lighter than the a380-900 wing would have been. And the wing-weight delta between -900 and -800 has bugger all to do with the point that the wing is too BIG - not that it's too HEAVY. That's why I said your ...

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by Matt6461
Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
Replies: 870
Views: 104311

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

The next VLA will most likely be a BWB. You need a step change in efficiency to make really large airframes attractive to airlines. The crucial question is whether there is a step-change in efficiency due to scale for BWB or any other form. What about the BWB form makes a VLA-BWB better than a 300-...

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by Matt6461
Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
Replies: 870
Views: 104311

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Matt, I'm not going to make this a personal (counter)attack, but sometimes you really need to get off your high horse. Believe it or not some of us here know a lot more about these things than you ever will. IIRC you've admitted in the past not knowing aerodynamics and engineering very well. The ov...

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by Matt6461
Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:01 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
Replies: 870
Views: 104311

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Some bloggers have always had a consistent opinion on the market for big quads. The have all been bashed by all sorts of people. They could potentially say, "I told you so.", But they don't say it. I think you've earned the right to say it. Especially as several VERY ARROGANT AND SMUG A38...

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by Matt6461
Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
Replies: 870
Views: 104311

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Just because a fuselage stretch can be taken doesn't mean that the wing is overweight and overbuilt. The A389 wing would have needed strengthening to increase the MTOW towards 600 tons, this is common knowledge. Indeed - I have had to counter this idea that the A380-800 is flying on a much heavier ...

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by Matt6461
Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
Replies: 870
Views: 104311

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

The A380 uses 116inch diameter trents engines with around 80,000lb of thrust. An optimised A380-800 could have used the 112inch diameter trent engines that power the 787. The A380 could have then piggy backed on any PIPs that the 787 engines received. You're right about the cross section etc. - sou...

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by Matt6461
Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
Replies: 870
Views: 104311

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

We need to ship that professor one of the medals for predicting A380 failure from the start. Not to detract from the good professor but this was the default belief of business folks (outside Airbus) at the time. The too big wing is an airliners.net myth that we read anywhere but people writng that ...

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by Matt6461
Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower
Replies: 224
Views: 42006

Re: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower

A350NEO, especially with a stretch, means Airbus sets the 777X expiration date prior to its EIS. That means long-term planners may opt into the A350 family in the interim rather than ordering 777X. Hopefully this means Boeing launches a new VLA soon. VLAs are dead. Simple as that. The A380 proves i...

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by Matt6461
Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower
Replies: 224
Views: 42006

Re: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower

btw - Keesje's ecoliner is garbage. What a sudden aggression. The Ecoliner was a nice project ages ago. I have no idea why you are suddenly so ferociously trying to downplay the concept on details, as it was hardly specified and basic specs are in line with similar aircraft. Are you fighting your o...

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by Matt6461
Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:36 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower
Replies: 224
Views: 42006

Re: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower

787MAX takes over the heart of the market in the A359 segment (787-10MAX). That IMHO would be a revamp comparable to the 777X. New legs, new Wing, new Engines ( do we really like the way the fuselage is done? ) That assumes a larger fan. With geared fans could you not get away with a smaller core a...

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by Matt6461
Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:53 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates' Business Model without the A380?
Replies: 107
Views: 16539

Re: Emirates' Business Model without the A380?

The best of all, EK passengers will not have to contend with 9-abreast 787s that is even tighter than the 77W I’m pretty sure that is not true. Everything I see has EK 777’s at 17”. Most 787’s are slightly bigger than that. 777 cabin is 231in wide; 787 is 216in wide. That's 15in difference. Arithme...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower
Replies: 224
Views: 42006

Re: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower

Do you think it's impractical to use an Ultrafan-like engine on the 777X, beyond the issue you raised above that you wouldn't expect such a beast to be competitive with the A350? Probably not impossible but might require higher landing gear. And as you say, a metal 777X can't compete against a plas...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower
Replies: 224
Views: 42006

Re: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower

Is any current aircraft built to accommodate such large bypass ratios and fans though? If you're talking about Ultrafan BPR, I addressed that above: new "slim-line" nacelles mean that the on-wing engine shouldn't should be much larger, if any, than current engines. TXWB's nacelle diameter...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower
Replies: 224
Views: 42006

Re: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower

The other option Boeing have is to cut the asking price for the 77X so much that they sell it for a substantial loss or at best break even on a recuring cash flow basis. But that is no viable option either. "Market intelligence", IIRC, says Boeing can build the 77W for less than $100mil r...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower
Replies: 224
Views: 42006

Re: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower

I think we are making a ton of assumptions. The first is that the ultra fan will be ready by 2025, the second being that it will be significantly better than the engines on the 777X after a PIP or two. I'm not assuming 2025 but even a slight slippage means the 777X has only 6-7 years at the top. Re...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower
Replies: 224
Views: 42006

Re: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Whatever makes you feel good after the whale's death, man.


It's funny that, depending on a particular point, I can be called an A380 hater in one thread and a mourning A380 fanboy in another.
Hard for some to imagine that one can have clear views independent of any team allegiance.

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower
Replies: 224
Views: 42006

Re: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower

Now, with the possibility of the A350Neo getting quite a bit better engines than the B777X from maybe as early as 2025 I cant see any new airline placing an order for the B777X with delivery after the time when an A350Neo would be available. It's not quite that dire; 5 years of availability is subs...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?
Replies: 94
Views: 10462

Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

I think people in Seattle and Cincinnati may see this threat coming. They probably can't head it off at the pass but they know the threat is existential (at least for that segment of the market) and may have to make extraordinary efforts to remain viable. Or they may decide the VLA sector has as mu...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
Replies: 870
Views: 104311

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

idp5601 wrote:
even a well-designed A380 is still too much plane for most airlines in the world.


blerghhh.

A380's fuel consumption and terrible design had nothing to with its terrible performance on the market. Keep telling yourself that.

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:20 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?
Replies: 94
Views: 10462

Re: Boeing monopoly on the VLA market?

A350-2000 with Ultrafan engines will absolutely destroy the 777-9 and give Airbus the monopoly on the VLA market (insofar as such market makes any conceptual sense - it doesn't). Except this time the Airbus monopoly will be profitable, unlike with A380.

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower
Replies: 224
Views: 42006

Re: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower

A clean-sheet, double-decker VLA might be the best and last hope for the return of quad engine airliners. At some point, ETOPs and one-engine out/takeoff requirements may become so onerous for something with 450++t MTOW that it might be more cost-effective to go with something like 4 * 50k engines ...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:05 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower
Replies: 224
Views: 42006

Re: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower

Well for a long time his pretty picture was all we had. Yeah I get that. But it also shouldn't take long for true enthusiasts to grok concepts like L/D, weight, and SFC and realize that Keesje's proposal was based on ridiculous numbers. Pictures are great - they're what motivate us into the space -...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:32 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower
Replies: 224
Views: 42006

Re: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower

Time to start pondering what that VLA might look like. Keesje’ EcoLiner or perhaps something larger? Way ahead of you. https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=776333 I've been somewhat unique in believing (1) the imminent death of A380 and (2) the superiority of double-deckers for y...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower
Replies: 224
Views: 42006

Re: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower

Ah, but Boeing can also stretch the 779 to a 777-10Max and the game continues. Only if Boeing wants to play the same game that Airbus played with the A380. A heavier, older-tech plane will never deliver the economies of scale required for a larger plane (777-10MAX) to beat a smaller plane (A350-200...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower
Replies: 224
Views: 42006

Re: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower

A350NEO, especially with a stretch, means Airbus sets the 777X expiration date prior to its EIS. That means long-term planners may opt into the A350 family in the interim rather than ordering 777X. Hopefully this means Boeing launches a new VLA soon. And anyone who bets their farm on yet another RR...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:02 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower
Replies: 224
Views: 42006

Re: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower

A350NEO, especially with a stretch, means Airbus sets the 777X expiration date prior to its EIS. That means long-term planners may opt into the A350 family in the interim rather than ordering 777X. Hopefully this means Boeing launches a new VLA soon. A VLA in lieu of what - the NMA or NSA? I can’t ...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower
Replies: 224
Views: 42006

Re: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower

A350NEO, especially with a stretch, means Airbus sets the 777X expiration date prior to its EIS. That means long-term planners may opt into the A350 family in the interim rather than ordering 777X. Not sure I agree with this. The 777X has a weight problem, but it also has a wing advantage over the ...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:43 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
Replies: 870
Views: 104311

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Seriously can we just discuss the topic without the flamebait, it’s totally unnecessary To what are you referring? Earnestly seeking clarification here. Probably deleted posts. Makes sense. I just hope "flamebait" doesn't include anything saying the A380 was and is a poorly-conceived wast...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:36 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible
Replies: 880
Views: 137664

Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Next up will likely be the expiration of the 787-10 MoU and an increase of their 777X order by 20 or more frames. How important is it for EK to throw B a bone like that? They have 150 on order already - do they really need to order a few dozen more to appease Boeing? EK's business model relies on s...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:32 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
Replies: 870
Views: 104311

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

qf789 wrote:
Seriously can we just discuss the topic without the flamebait, it’s totally unnecessary


To what are you referring?
Earnestly seeking clarification here.

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:41 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: 2025ish A380-900NEO
Replies: 177
Views: 25895

Re: 2025ish A380-900NEO

A rumor I heard this past weekend was that -800 production was ending. Too many changes to use a lot of the tooling and production/manufacturing methods for the new variant. But that's just a rumor and I have my doubts. No longer a rumor, but officially confirmed by Airbus in a press release: https...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:05 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower
Replies: 224
Views: 42006

Re: Airbus A350 to have RR Ultrafan Engines from ~2025, Ostrower

A350NEO, especially with a stretch, means Airbus sets the 777X expiration date prior to its EIS.
That means long-term planners may opt into the A350 family in the interim rather than ordering 777X.

Hopefully this means Boeing launches a new VLA soon.

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
Replies: 870
Views: 104311

Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Many experts, and arm-chair experts, have criticized the business case for the 380, but from an aviation enthusiast's view -- jeez, Airbus built the damn thing -- a double decker aircraft the size of a fricken apartment building! It is an astonishing bit of engineering getting something that big in...

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
Replies: 870
Views: 104311

Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Given the amount of time and work I've put into it, I feel entitled to a victory lap. Here's my analysis of A380CEO and NEO posted here 5 years ago: WHAT TODO WITH THE A380. If I am correct that a NEO won't change the competitive position of the A380, then Airbus has decide between three options: 1....

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by Matt6461
Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:05 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: 2025ish A380-900NEO
Replies: 177
Views: 25895

Re: 2025ish A380-900NEO

Eyad89 wrote:
The massive weight overshadowed that great advantage it had.


Not just weight, also (wing/tail/engine) drag.

Eyad89 wrote:
Ending the A380 production must've left you gutted, after all the time you've invested in this thread


You have no idea.

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by Matt6461
Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:47 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: 2025ish A380-900NEO
Replies: 177
Views: 25895

Re: 2025ish A380-900NEO

A380 is about 2.2x larger than a 787-9 though. Plus it isn't clear from Joyce's comment that he was including the acquisition cost of the aircraft, as he cited fuel, pilots, and airport fees. Plus Leeham's analysis - as well as others - shows that the A380 is still more efficient than 789. As I alwa...

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by Matt6461
Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: QF officially cancels final 8 A380s.
Replies: 217
Views: 37501

Re: QF officially cancels final 8 A380s.

I think the MD-11, A340-200, A340-500, A340-600, A330-800, 747-8i, 767-400, 757-300, MD-90, MD-95/717, ARJ, 328JET, C919, A318, 737-600, and CRJ-1000 are all yelling "Hold my beer!" As already said, these are all derivatives of successful designs (except C919). A340NG is the only one in t...

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