Search found 301 matches

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by timtam
Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020
Replies: 182
Views: 22128

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Those shareholders that took up the Qantas share offer are having the last laugh - they are sitting on a nice 22c/share profit as of today. Thats the difference between mum and dad investors who dont really know what they are doing and professional investors. Everyone agrees shares are best treated...

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by timtam
Mon Aug 10, 2020 5:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020
Replies: 182
Views: 22128

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Those shareholders that took up the Qantas share offer are having the last laugh - they are sitting on a nice 22c/share profit as of today. Thats the difference between mum and dad investors who dont really know what they are doing and professional investors. Everyone agrees shares are best treated...

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by timtam
Mon Aug 10, 2020 2:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020
Replies: 182
Views: 22128

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Those shareholders that took up the Qantas share offer are having the last laugh - they are sitting on a nice 22c/share profit as of today.

Thats the difference between mum and dad investors who dont really know what they are doing and professional investors.

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by timtam
Sun Aug 02, 2020 7:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020
Replies: 182
Views: 22128

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2020

Any ETA on when restrictions on Sydney, Melbourne & Brisbane end? Is AU successfully controlling the coronavirus? I have Chinese and American friends that want to visit. Your best option would be to go visit them and to make it a one way ticket. Melbourne will be in lock-down till the end of Se...

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by timtam
Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2020
Replies: 366
Views: 55103

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2020

The other thing I’m curious about with VA 2.0 is what will happen to the slot they were awarded at HND? Is that something they can sub-lease or resell or does the airport take it back? Cheers, C1973 My understanding is that HND slot will be returned to the IASC who will then make decision about awa...

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by timtam
Fri Jun 26, 2020 6:09 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020
Replies: 495
Views: 68368

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

QF saying its outlook is that the international borders will not open for at least the next 12 months. Australian PM responding to this outlook that he hopes the border to NZ may open earlier than that. The situation can change quickly. But the current outlook is pointing to the borders remaining cl...

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by timtam
Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020
Replies: 495
Views: 68368

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Its not just about international travel. Domestic travel is going to be tough. Just opening the interstate borders does not mean travel will return back to near normal levels. Hard to imagine too many corporates allowing non essential travel. It seems possible that the corporate travel market could ...

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by timtam
Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:28 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020
Replies: 495
Views: 68368

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Very brave of anyone to buy into VA at this time. The level of risk is off the charts on this acquisition. How can they predict the outlook for the next 6 months? No one knows where this is really going. Will there be a second wave? Third wave? Will there be a vaccine? When? The odds are increasing ...

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by timtam
Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020
Replies: 495
Views: 68368

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

The situation demonstrates that the various states have been correct to resist the calls to prematurely open their borders. When a state opens its borders its controls are only as good as the weakest link in the chain wherever that may be. Throughout this pandemic, the passage of time has shown that...

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by timtam
Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020
Replies: 495
Views: 68368

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Gael23 wrote:
Is there any indication to when European citizens will be allowed holiday in Australia?


Mid 2021

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by timtam
Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Jetstar Pacific Is No More, Now Renamed Pacific Airlines (Updated)
Replies: 156
Views: 22497

Re: Jetstar Pacific: QF reportedly transferring its stakes to Vietnam Airlines

The put option allegedly had a price of $US50m payment to QF.

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by timtam
Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Jetstar Pacific Is No More, Now Renamed Pacific Airlines (Updated)
Replies: 156
Views: 22497

Re: Jetstar Pacific: QF reportedly transferring its stakes to Vietnam Airlines

Wonder if QF still has the put option that allows it to put the airline back to the Government and recieve its $50m investment back?

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by timtam
Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Jetstar Pacific Is No More, Now Renamed Pacific Airlines (Updated)
Replies: 156
Views: 22497

Re: Jetstar Pacific: QF reportedly transferring its stakes to Vietnam Airlines

The venture has been living on borrowed time ever since the 70% stake was transferred to VN. QF has its brand on an airline it doesnt control, is not making any money, has lots of competitors and there is substantial regulatory risk. Plus VN has different objectives to QF. Doesnt make sense for QF a...

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by timtam
Fri May 29, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68535

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Back onto aviation, an elephant in the room, does Covid-19 change what is acceptable spacing in an aircraft? Will the current seating arrangements be deemed unsafe and will changes be required. All the best air filters are useless at preventing the spread of a virus if your stuck in a middle seat o...

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by timtam
Thu May 28, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68535

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

SA is a mendicant state relying on significant cross-subsidisation from other states particularly NSW, Victoria and WA. Its economy and state revenues rely on GST revenues and therefore economic activity in the donor states. Last time I checked, all the state governments were dependent on the GST i...

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by timtam
Thu May 28, 2020 7:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68535

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

SA has an objective of having zero cases. That is the target and it is a realistic and achievable target in SA. Complete eradication is neither realistic nor achievable. The Queensland CMO said so, pretty much verbatim, and the AHPPC has basically said that there is no medical evidence to support s...

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by timtam
Thu May 28, 2020 2:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68535

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

There is a significant difference in the objectives of individual states. SA has an objective of having zero cases. That is the target and it is a realistic and achievable target in SA. There is a both a health and economic benefit of achieving this target for SA. By achieving this target, SA can op...

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by timtam
Wed May 27, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68535

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

The dangers of opening the borders were highlighted yesterday with the first Covid-19 case in SA in almost a month - an overseas traveller. A person who is not a resident of South Australia (or Australia), flew into Victoria from the UK and was supposed to spend 14 days in quarantine. She spent less...

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by timtam
Mon May 25, 2020 6:56 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68535

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

It doesnt dissapear, it is replaced by the new lease liability at the revised lease rates. It goes down - it may go down, it doesnt dissapear unless they have no leased aircraft.

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by timtam
Wed May 20, 2020 6:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68535

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Taking a light hearted view - maybe we can have 2 bubbles in Australia..... Bubble one for people who think their jobs are more important than peoples lives. Let them move between themselves freely. Bubble two for people who think their lives are more important than their jobs. Let them keep the bor...

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by timtam
Wed May 20, 2020 6:38 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68535

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

These intra/inter state closures now have become a chest thumping exercise by state premiers to prove to everyone how much better they are than other state premiers. The country was asked to flatten the curve. We put our lives and livelihoods on hold, in the name of flattening the curve, we did tha...

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by timtam
Wed May 20, 2020 6:33 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68535

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

70% of revenue activity in the North Qld and Broome tourism sectors happens between June and September. If you wait because you are overly cautious you may find there is very little left to bother reopening. Its a pretty simple question. Do you put peoples lives first or do you put the economy firs...

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by timtam
Wed May 20, 2020 2:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68535

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

They have advised that travel within Australia is basically OK but there is politics at play restricting this. . Just to counter that comment - there is politics at play in seeking to open up travel early - in advance of the expert medical advice being provided to some of the states. But some state...

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by timtam
Tue May 19, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68535

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Very poor form of one state to take another state to task over seeking to protect its population from the spread of Covid-19 based upon its own expert medical advice. Especially considering the involvement of one state's officials in the Ruby Princess disaster. When a state opens its borders, it bec...

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by timtam
Mon May 18, 2020 2:21 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68535

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Would administrators usually divulge who has put in a bid? I'd think there should be some kind of confidentiality clause prohibiting that kind of information being leaked. All the listed bidders are deal makers managing other peoples funds so they would be happy to have their name out in the public...

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by timtam
Mon May 18, 2020 2:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68535

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

You never know but have to wonder if Brookfield are serious bidders. Almost as wacky as QIC bidding for the airline. Indian investors will be looking for a low price and goverment support. Maybe hoping to win by being the last bidder remaining. So its probably down to 2 serious bidders plus a wildc...

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by timtam
Sun May 17, 2020 6:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68535

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Being reported via ET that Delta may be poised to place the A350 on the LAX-SYD-LAX route once restrictions start to subside. Limited services are currently set for June, although this may likely change. Personal Speculation/Scenario: Based on the scenario that the DL/VA JV remains in a post-admini...

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by timtam
Thu May 14, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68535

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

You never know but have to wonder if Brookfield are serious bidders. Almost as wacky as QIC bidding for the airline. Indian investors will be looking for a low price and goverment support. Maybe hoping to win by being the last bidder remaining. So its probably down to 2 serious bidders plus a wildca...

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by timtam
Wed May 13, 2020 12:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68535

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

VA is not an infrastructure asset. QIC has no idea how to run an airline and it would become a disaster investment for them if they try. But it doesnt really matter, QIC wont win the bid. The risks in VA will be too high for their risk appetite and so they wont be able to mount a competitive bid. Th...

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by timtam
Mon May 11, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68535

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

First round bids for VAH due this Friday. The usual suspects of Bain, BGH/Temasek, Twiggy, Indigo Partners, et al should get a move on. https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/friday-deadline-for-virgin-australia-s-billion-dollar-buyers This is the start of the process. This is where they work out ...

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by timtam
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 116800

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

The strategy was long term. It wasn't about making profits straight away. It was a transformation which in my view was successful. The profit was going to come until COVID-19 came. Luxon wanted to sacrifice long-term for short-term. Of course, knowing what we know now VA should have done that but t...

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by timtam
Sun Apr 19, 2020 2:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 116800

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

https://scontent.fper4-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p640x640/93426699_10156900076011689_3996311075715809280_o.jpg?_nc_cat=109&_nc_sid=ca434c&_nc_ohc=9gusjaghJrUAX-mOKjv&_nc_ht=scontent.fper4-1.fna&_nc_tp=6&oh=5ae9465145726618d62a34211236fbba&oe=5EC3B8A3 This photo was taken by a...

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by timtam
Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 116800

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Threatening to move the HQ is a common move - but the restructuring experts are tight on time so instead of doing it behind closed doors as would normally happen, they are using the media to pressure a faster response. They are seeking a hand out from the State Government. They are pulling every lev...

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by timtam
Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 116800

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

There is a good example of the VA restructuring experts using their media contacts to apply pressure in the AFR. "Clock is ticking on Virgin's survival The government should be careful not to let ideology get in the way of helping to keep two viable full-service carriers operating in Australia....

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by timtam
Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 116800

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Just to put VA' s request in perspective, the Federal Government declined to provide a subsidy of $300m per year to save 5000 direct and 45000 indirect jobs in the car manufacturing industry. All 3 car manufacturers closed up. VA cannot expect the Federal Government to save them. VA needs to save it...

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by timtam
Tue Apr 14, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 116800

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

I'd add a few more battles - particularly if you assume that VA will likely want to be a bit smaller if it re-emerges Aircraft Lessors Negotiation on lease price on some aircraft, ability to return others without penalty Secured Aircraft Debt As above Airports Same on gate space, lounges etc Employ...

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by timtam
Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 116800

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

So here is a hypothetical of the VA situation: VA in its current form is finished. It has called in the restructuring experts and is now in a desperate fight against time to restructure and survive. It has to fight a battle on multiple fronts at the same time in order to pull off the deal for the ne...

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by timtam
Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 116800

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

It is going to be very difficult for VA to survive. A rescue could have been possible but there are a few factors that make it difficult. It needs a capital injection but its current shareholders have indicated they are not willing to inject any capital. In the current environment its hard to see an...

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by timtam
Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 116800

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Most landlords of commercial property are providing rent relief to their distressed tenants. Airports, being monopolies, plus also suffering a significant loss in non rental revenues, are probably not providing any rent relief. Its a pity legislation has not been passed making some form of rent reli...

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by timtam
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:58 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 116800

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

JQ32 said "Their poor management really is the reason for their current predicament. If they were well managed they would have cash reserves for times like this. Ansett Mrk 2 died due to 9/11, so why can't virgin die the same way it rose to this position. poor management and not planning for un...

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by timtam
Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020
Replies: 987
Views: 99223

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

Not sure why the Australian Government would rescue the foreign owned VA.

VA has been poorly run for a long time.

If VA falls, another will replace it.

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by timtam
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020
Replies: 987
Views: 99223

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

ACCC does have the power to split a company, so essentially they could break JQ off from QF if they wanted to. The Australian Government is better off offering money to Air NZ to run a competitor. VA is experiencing what a lot of companies and people are going through when you don’t have reserves o...

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by timtam
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020
Replies: 987
Views: 99223

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

From another forum. Anyone know what QF and VAs hedging exposure is? Presumably they will need to settle contracts for fuel they aren't using. QF HY said 100% hedged for remainder of FY (till June) with 45% downside protection with a footnote about $10/bbl. QF make extensive use of options. So a si...

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by timtam
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020
Replies: 987
Views: 99223

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2020

QF is in a relatively strong position. Going on 2018 data, only 14% of the fleet is leased and lease costs represent less than 2% of its overall costs. Fuel represents 21% of its cost base with international flying being 50% of the fuel cost. So this is a variable cost that will reduce along with th...

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by timtam
Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020
Replies: 613
Views: 66075

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2020

With the benefit of hindsight, the biggest winner out of the non grant of an operating license to Jetstar Hong Kong in 2015 was Qantas. Based on its plans and other ventures, it would probably have been at about 25 aircraft by now. Jetstar Hong Kong would be in a world of pain right now if it had go...

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by timtam
Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:33 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: BA retires first 777
Replies: 58
Views: 18129

Re: BA retires first 777

ArchGuy1 wrote:
I would like to see the first BA 777 preserved in a museum.


Then you should buy it and donate it to a worthy museum :)

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by timtam
Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:32 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qantas schedules one-time A380 service to Orlando
Replies: 81
Views: 23731

Re: Qantas schedules one-time A380 service to Orlando

timtam: Fallout from the industrial action that grounded the entire fleet in 2011. Rubbish! Maintance in LAX started LONG before 2011, it stared long before the A380 was on the property. It is mainly schedule driven, other factors certinaly contribute but schedule factors are the bigge. Gemuser Sig...

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by timtam
Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:09 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qantas schedules one-time A380 service to Orlando
Replies: 81
Views: 23731

Re: Qantas schedules one-time A380 service to Orlando

I’m sure the aircraft would go back to LAX straight away. They sit on the ground in LAX for most of the day. Suprised QF don’t do more charters around the US with them - I supposed there isn’t huge demand for large scale 380 charters out of AU, that would avoid cabotage issues NOTE: qantas has a la...

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by timtam
Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian bushfires -why is the "global supertanker" not used
Replies: 38
Views: 6987

Re: Australian bushfires -why is the "global supertanker" not used

FYI. Update from the ADF: "The bushfire crisis is the Australian Defence Force’s main effort. ADF personnel have been working with state and territory authorities since September 2019 to respond to Australia’s bushfire crisis. This support will continue for as long as needed. More than 5000 ful...

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by timtam
Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian bushfires -why is the "global supertanker" not used
Replies: 38
Views: 6987

Re: Australian bushfires -why is the "global supertanker" not used

Leave it to the experts who know what they are doing.

Bushfires are a part of life in Australia - always have been - always will be. Everyone does their best to minimise their impact but every so often, the conditions are such that they cannot be stopped.

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