It also only works if the opposing power is led by someone rational and half-sane. Putin's messianic complex colors almost everything he does. Putin is many things, mostly terrible, but to look at his actions (and the perceptions of many Russian intelligence and military personnel) as anything othe...
Jump to post“Our warriors need more means of destroying Russian missiles, [Iranian-made] ‘Shaheds’ and other combat drones, as well as Russian aircraft,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly address. The president added that he was “grateful to everyone in the world who is already helping and is willing to ramp up as...
Jump to postSome thoughts from General Sir Richard Shirreff, Former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander for Europe On ‘Operational Art’, which he describes as a series of tactical battles to a strategic objective, Sir Richard comments: I think the Ukrainians have given us a real lesson in operational art and desig...
Jump to postbut there's no guarantee that the Russians won't try Plan A (occupation of the whole of Ukraine) again The guarantee is that no one lives forever. This applies to Putin. As soon as he passes. The nex leader will not be as ruthless or competent. Why? Because has has already gotten rid of all the rut...
Jump to postIs there a word like Vranyo anywhere in the West?
Certainly there isn’t in English.
Russia has no monopoly on lies but has made accepting them an art form.
For those interested in what happened regards starlink in Crimea, google Elon Musk all in podcast
Jump to postThe fact that Chomsky is a joke is somehow lost on the left which see him as one of their intellectual leaders. Chomsky is so far left he winds up supporting a nationalist despot. How he’s not laughing at himself is a wonder.
Jump to postNot sure what you mean w the Stalingrad reference. As far as the experiments w new tactics that occurred during WW1 I think both sides find themselves in the same spot. The cavalry was useless in 1914. The tank while not useless is greatly diminished given drones and much easier mine deployment. Wh...
Jump to postWe are seeing a paradigm shift where the defense has gained tge upper hand. We are seeing that without air superiority, artillery still rule. It does not negate Western/NATO doctrine. It's just that Ukraine can not use Western doctrine and have to come up with their own and it still takes time to f...
Jump to postWhile I disagree w Tarom on just about every point he’s correct in that the map hasn’t moved much and certainly less than some expected. Why? Since the end of ww1 tanks and apv have spearheaded offensive movements. Drones like machine gun in Ww1 have greatly impeded armored calvary. Given this Ukra...
Jump to postWhile I disagree w Tarom on just about every point he’s correct in that the map hasn’t moved much and certainly less than some expected. Why? Since the end of ww1 tanks and apv have spearheaded offensive movements. Drones like machine gun in Ww1 have greatly impeded armored calvary. Given this Ukrai...
Jump to postI am hopeful that the crew did survive which got me to thinking about all the Russian crews who have not. How are they possibly replacing all the lost crews let alone armor?
Jump to postA month ago, after the naval drone attack on the Kerch Bridge, the amphibious ship and the tanker, I thought that the destruction of the Kerch Bridge was only days or weeks away. Since then, nothing has happened - except for a failed missile attack and a recent rumor that the Russians have destroye...
Jump to postInteresting news and map, IMO: Interesting if accurate is how quickly they are able to penetrate this line. That give hope that thing can move faster as they gain more experience. It was interesting enough of a claim, from a reputable source, that I have taken some time to look at it closer. I thin...
Jump to postLet’s say a victory takes another 5 years.
A disaster right?
Unless you’re a Ukrainian thinking about the prospect of living under Russian fiat for the rest of your life.
Let’s say a victory takes another 5 years.
A disaster right?
Unless you’re a Ukrainian thinking about the prospect of living under Russian fiat for the rest of your life.
Given Putin's intolerance of dissent, no matter how small, I wonder if Prigozhin will be secretly buried before anyone knows. His funeral otherwise could be a lightning rod of sorts. This is a logical extension of cancel culture. A good reminder for all of us who both enjoy the freedoms and rule of...
Jump to post[quote="GDB"]There was always an albeit somewhat unpopular view, to answer about AD to protect the F-16's, that sufficient layered AD would have to be in place first. High end layer, Patriot or SAMP-T, then systems like IRLS-T, including not as modern but still effective Improved Hawk, Buk...
Jump to postThere's one thing that those who say that Gen 4 fighters are useless are forgetting. Western/NATO doctrine isn't to send over a couple planes at a time. They send a full strike package to suppress air defenses. This includes fighters, attack aircraft, ECM jammers, Wild Weasels, AWACS, etc. It's sor...
Jump to postGDB, I never said you were against 5 th gen. I do believe you overestimate the usefulness of 4 th gen AC. As you said the VKS could not establish air superiority early on and still hasn’t. Ukraine has full demonstrated that 4 th gen AC are super limited in any kind of peer to peer or near peer confl...
Jump to postAnd what I have been saying has been validated. Outnumbered as Ukraine is by the vks has not given Russia a decisive advantage.
Regards what AF’s want the list of countries that have lined up for F35’s needs to be explained by those w your views.
GDB, anyone who expected VKS to be decisive simply hasn’t been paying attention. 4 th gen AC are not decisive and certainly can’t ensure air superiority against modern AD systems. And most AF know this which is why the F35 is so popular.
Jump to postOnly on A.nethas the Russian AF underperformed. S300 and patriot in Ukraine are to any SU non 5 th gen AC as Sa 2 were to F4 et al in Vietnam. Modern AD has made 4 th gen obsolete including any in the west that Ukraine acquires. Crunch time will be when Russian forces start to collapse. The danger o...
Jump to postTaromA380, I’m curious, what are your hopes for Russia?
Jump to postAgree, Germany made courageous decision on gas. If they hadn’t it is very likely that the war would have been won by Russia and the future of NATO in doubt.
Jump to postSupport UA! Yes!
The problem is in so many ways it’s too little too late because for years the mantra of why bother, there’s no threat ruled most NATO members especially Germany.
Russia could collapse any day or a few years from now. UA is playing it smart minimizing casualties while applying pressure.
Jump to postWe are making this way too complicated; RU has one of the most advanced 4 th gen fleets and despite this has not achieved air superiority.
Ergo, while UA will be better off w the F 16 the advantages will be marginal
It seems you are making our point.
Jump to postMy assertions over several threads has been that air superiority w/o 5th AC is impossible against countries like China and Russia who possess capable AD systems. Btw, what I heard in multiple threads was 5 th gen is unnecessary because there is no threat( read, we don’t have the capability for 5 th ...
Jump to postAgree, AD is a core competency for RU. To the extent it has been overcome by Israel and the US technology has been the root cause . Both countries have invested heavily in stealth which is not now available to UA.
Huge quantities of the rocket launched SDB would be more beneficial to UA than F16
We’ll see a lot more than a few F16 losses.Russia’s AD is very competent at hitting F16 like targets. If they can hit missiles what chance does any 4 th gen ac have given 70-90 mile standoff weapon range?
Jump to postI’m in the camp that doesn’t think the F16 or any 4th gen fighter that UA acquires will fare well against Russia.
Jump to postThe F16 can help w defense but unless Russia runs out of AC and AD, on offense it will be limited to launching lr weapons. After all we can see that AD systems are routinely successfully taking down missiles
Jump to postHow will the f16 do this in the face of Russian ac and ad?
Jump to postOverall I think the UA is trying to keep up the pressure while minimizing casualties. As has been stated the Russians are struggling w many issues and so no one would be surprised if they collapsed even though there are no signs of such an event. If the UA can keep degrading their logistics and arti...
Jump to postYep, nobody looks over their shoulder more than him. Not even his troops. The interesting thing about Europe is that while the terrain makes defense super difficult, this applies to dictators which do not last long. Louis the 14th had the longest hold on power. You’d think nukes would help Putin sta...
Jump to postWhile it’s good that European governments have changed course for the last 15 or so years the constant refrain in response to requests for larger defense outlays in Europe has been, why bother, there’s no threat. Hopefully we learned our lesson is just how fast security Dynamics can change in Europe.
Jump to postI know it’s hard to quantify but missing from the various equipment lists detailed above( thanks everyone) is the intelligence and combat management software which has played a significant role in leveling the playing field.
Jump to postThe roots of all the wars in Europe is that the 2nd and 3 rd ranked nations had no trust in the first power, who strong as they might be did not have the power to hold off all who became Allie’s in reaction to aggression. The postwar peace largely rested on the trust by Europe in the US who was far ...
Jump to postI agree, Russia will fester and be a trouble spot just as post WW1 Germany was which will require very sophisticated statesmanship if we are to avoid the mistakes of our ancestors. Just as Hitler made the Kaiser look like Boy Scout I have no doubt there is much worse than Putin waiting for their opp...
Jump to postI couldn’t follow all the points you made but the primary dynamic that has made security in Europe so tricky is the man in the middle problem. France, Germany and Austria all played that role at various times up until 1945. Now Russia is between China and the west and is struggling to build enough s...
Jump to postTo truly change Russia ( for the better) something akin to the way post war Germany was handled would be required. The problems in Russia are just as intractable. But not going to happen.
Jump to postDecided to re read War and Peace in light of the current war. The similarities between the and now are so many it will give pause to those that believe Russia can have a better future. Hope I’m wrong.
Jump to postBe careful what you wish for. Eliminate moral standards and the worst becomes acceptable.
Jump to postSorry, sent too soon.
If China is the prime outlet it is very likely Siberia will attempt to break away. Russia can add value if Europe resumes its trading agreements w Russia.
While I want a free Ukraine I don’t wish to see a massive civil war in the aftermath.
Sorry for not being more clear but I’m thinking past the current conflict. I expect the Ukraine to prevail and as distasteful as it may be we may have to repair relations w a Putin lead Russia or risk a massive civil war. Moist of Russia’s natural resources are not in Russia proper but are in Siberi...
Jump to postDictatorships no matter the type are very brittle.
I think it’s worth remembering that as bad a Putin is there’s much worse waiting in the wings.
Russia has no chance of surviving unless it can supply Europe w raw materials so some very tricky stuff ahead.
Good questions, been wondering if the units involved have suffered high casualties. If so and they feel like they have been misused combined with all the new ways there are to be killed mutiny makes sense. Certainly wouldn’t be the first time.
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