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by SESGDL
Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Significant DL DTW cut?
Replies: 87
Views: 9401

Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Can you show a data source for that? I've seen data pointing to MSP and DTW being less than 50% O&D, more reliant on connecting traffic than ORD in particular. Id like to see that data too. Im skeptical. https://orlandoairports.net/site/uploads/O-and-D-Ranking-202112.pdf This was the case befor...

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by SESGDL
Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Significant DL DTW cut?
Replies: 87
Views: 9401

Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Keep in mind that is including all airlines that fly to DTW, it’s not just DL’s traffic. The other airlines will almost exclusively be DTW O&D. What does that have to do with the data I posted? I never said DL’s operation was majority O&D. What you said is the case for every airline at its ...

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by SESGDL
Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Significant DL DTW cut?
Replies: 87
Views: 9401

Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Id like to see that data too. Im skeptical. https://orlandoairports.net/site/uploads/O-and-D-Ranking-202112.pdf This was the case before Covid and remains the case. Not sure why you’d be skeptical of this, all of DL’s hubs apart from ATL are majority O&D. Jeremy Keep in mind that is including a...

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by SESGDL
Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Significant DL DTW cut?
Replies: 87
Views: 9401

Re: Significant DL DTW cut?

Even in 2019, DTW/MSP were the only two interior hubs (among AA/DL/UA) whose O/D operation was larger than connecting pax. The OD % of DL at ATL/SLC, or AA at DFW/ORD/CLT, or UA at ORD/DEN… those hubs were all in the approximate 30% or 40% O/D, with the vast majority of pax connections. DTW/MSP aga...

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by SESGDL
Sun Jul 31, 2022 6:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1743
Views: 334543

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2022

Looks like AA is down to only 55 50-seater flights/day in October (using October 14). That is down to less than 40% of the number they operated in S19. Outside of the 50 seaters markets, ORD seems to be quite weak as well. ATL/SFO-ORD down to 3x daily (50% of pre-covid), 2 out of 3 ATL-ORD flights ...

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by SESGDL
Fri Jul 29, 2022 9:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: DL announce ATL-CPT/TLV, LAX-PPT
Replies: 160
Views: 32186

Re: Updated: DL announce ATL-CPT/TLV, LAX-PPT

The new routes make sense and reflect the sharp pivot to leisure as corporate traffic remains overall muted, and so does demand for Asia service. They've got to use the wide bodies somewhere. Interesting to see DL follow rather than lead here. LAX-PPT on DL offers its customer base an alternative t...

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by SESGDL
Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:53 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Airlines Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1608
Views: 415912

Re: United Airlines Network Thread - 2022

LAXintl wrote:
As part of today's earnings release, United updated its capacity guidance for the remainder of year.

Now looking to be down 13% in 2022 vs 2019. The 2023 Capacity guidance is to be down "no more than 8%" from 2019 levels.


Up no more than 8% over 2019, not down.

Jeremy

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by SESGDL
Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:14 pm
Forum: Trip Reports
Topic: Delta's New A321neo ATL-BOS-FLL-ATL (Pics, Vids)
Replies: 2
Views: 2112

Re: Delta's New A321neo ATL-BOS-FLL-ATL (Pics, Vids)

Thank you! Great, as always.

Jeremy

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by SESGDL
Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: American Airlines Business & Finance Discussion
Replies: 749
Views: 146462

Re: Updated: American Airlines Business & Finance Discussion

You are proving my point, these numbers don't mean much without context. Looking at these numbers you would think G4 & AS are the least profitable. That's not the case, in fact AS is guiding double digit margin in Q2. https://investor.alaskaair.com/static-files/687f32c3-5a86-4380-a268-cc7543131...

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by SESGDL
Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: American Airlines Business & Finance Discussion
Replies: 749
Views: 146462

Re: Updated: American Airlines Business & Finance Discussion

The consensus is that DL's earnings with be about equal to UA's and AA's combined and close to twice each. As I just said earnings are based on margin or EPS. DL is not 2x UA in either. Earnings are not based on margin. Margin is based on earnings. These are the present analysts' estimates for Q2 e...

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by SESGDL
Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: American Airlines Business & Finance Discussion
Replies: 749
Views: 146462

Re: Updated: American Airlines Business & Finance Discussion

I'd be pretty surprised if AA filed in the next 12 months, barring a further global meltdown/additional pandemic etc. As everyone has stated long term debt is a problem, but it's not really that unmanageable. Cash flow they are able to sustain, and while stock price at $13 (under $10 billion in cap...

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by SESGDL
Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: American Airlines Business & Finance Discussion
Replies: 749
Views: 146462

Re: Updated: American Airlines Business & Finance Discussion

In the long run I do think there is room for only two large legacies. United will be one of them. The fight to be had is between AA and DL. It has commenced pre-covid. IMO. Huh? Why United? DL has been the healthier carrier for more than a decade. Operational meltdowns and DL’s still making twice t...

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by SESGDL
Wed Jun 15, 2022 12:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1282
Views: 254251

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

The second major point is that I believe having a lackluster network operation at DTW/MSP will eventually catch up to Delta, if they can’t get it corrected in time before AA/UA are able to capitalize on it. And it has nothing to do with DTW or MSP point of sale. DTW/MSP flyers are going to remain l...

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by SESGDL
Tue Jun 14, 2022 4:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1282
Views: 254251

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

I don't disagree with most of what you've said but I still feel DL now has DTW and MSP operating at a bare minimum of flights to continue to be viable. If they are forced into a decision between the two...what happens? I've looked at the 2020 operations of major US airports recently. The true hubs ...

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by SESGDL
Mon Jun 13, 2022 1:56 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1743
Views: 334543

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2022

Athens and Tel Aviv are not going anywhere even if the JetBlue partnership goes away. AA has more than enough JFK slots to keep those routes. They are always full full full. Transatlantic load factors are through the roof for everyone right now. The key is profits. In this environment with fuel and...

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by SESGDL
Fri Jun 10, 2022 3:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: JetBlue Agrees to Buy Spirit Airlines for $3.8 Billion After Frontier Deal Dies
Replies: 2278
Views: 301679

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Or maybe it’s because AUS is over-served and the yields are garbage at the moment. Also, you do realize B6 getting a lot bigger at LAX and South Florida (both of which are pretty much certain under a combined B6/NK) poses a much bigger threat to AA than a big B6 at AUS ever would, right? Very true....

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by SESGDL
Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Airlines Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1608
Views: 415912

Re: United Airlines Network Thread - 2022

https://thepointsguy.com/news/us-dropping-return-covid-testing-requirement-air-travel/ Looks like the US is dropping the COVID testing requirement for international arrivals. I wonder if that will boost summer demand for United or if it's already too late. I would imagine all the airlines will bene...

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by SESGDL
Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Covid testing requirements for international air travel into the USA ending
Replies: 74
Views: 10855

Re: Covid testing requirements for international air travel into the USA ending

Just means more infected people will travel and increase the chances of infecting their fellow travelers be it at the airport or onboard. The testing was a barrier that at least let people know and made them wait until they could test negative. Even though there are tens of millions more domestic p...

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by SESGDL
Mon Jun 06, 2022 11:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1743
Views: 334543

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2022

JL also likely needs to serve TYO nonstop from SEA to remain relevant to AS's FF base in Greater Seattle, and TYO is a business destination for some global companies headquartered in Greater Seattle such as Amazon, Costco, Microsoft, and Starbucks. Just keep in mind, a couple of those companies you...

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by SESGDL
Fri Jun 03, 2022 11:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1743
Views: 334543

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2022

AA is strong in OneWorld gateway markets and beyond in the Pacific: SYD, MEL, AKL, NRT/HND, ICN, HKG, PVG and SIN. PVG/PEK/HKG will resume from SEA/DFW when this Chinese lockdown mess is over as there's lots of CX FF's in PVG/PEK/HKG. OneWorld is KING in HKG. Australia has already opened up and NZ ...

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by SESGDL
Tue May 24, 2022 9:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: KQ7515 GVA TO NBO, 8 hours in a 737NG!
Replies: 28
Views: 4348

Re: KQ7515 GVA TO NBO, 8 hours in a 737NG!

Not sure how this is different for passengers than a similar length flight on a 757 or 321LR/321XLR.

Jeremy

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by SESGDL
Fri May 20, 2022 5:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1282
Views: 254251

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Yet another schedule reduction on the way likely this weekend. Not demand based whatsoever. Crew shortages are the culprit. Schedule too ambitious for the crew hours available starting in July, I believe it is. Gotta love it, or not, if you as a customer are caught up in it every single time they'v...

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by SESGDL
Fri May 20, 2022 11:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1282
Views: 254251

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Yet another schedule reduction on the way likely this weekend. Not demand based whatsoever. Crew shortages are the culprit. Schedule too ambitious for the crew hours available starting in July, I believe it is. Gotta love it, or not, if you as a customer are caught up in it every single time they'v...

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by SESGDL
Mon May 16, 2022 1:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1743
Views: 334543

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2022

Certainly becoming clear some AA hubs like CLT, DFW and MIA are going bonkers while others LAX, PHX, ORD are a drag. Will be interesting to see if the strong ones can financially make up for the ones that are struggling as the recovery continues to be uneven domestically and in AA's international m...

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by SESGDL
Fri May 13, 2022 7:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Jetblue Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1040
Views: 207295

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2022

Watch JetBlue get bought they just cut and cut and seem to be in desperate need of another airline. To be fair every airline cut, Jetblue just was way over bullish on their growth of +10-15% more ASM's above 2019 while everyone else except for the ULCC's are still well below 2019 levels. They will ...

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by SESGDL
Fri May 13, 2022 1:53 pm
Forum: Trip Reports
Topic: {Video Only} Delta Airbus A330 from Minneapolis to Hawaii
Replies: 1
Views: 1889

Re: {Video Only} Delta Airbus A330 from Minneapolis to Hawaii

Great report, thanks for sharing!

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by SESGDL
Thu May 12, 2022 2:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1282
Views: 254251

Re: DL in SBN

Over the past week I’ve noticed a decrease in Delta‘s flying out of South Bend. They have normally had multiple flights a day to each of their hubs but, for example, today they only had one flight to Detroit and the same is true for tomorrow. Any ideas why the sudden decrease in flying in/out of So...

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by SESGDL
Wed May 11, 2022 5:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Airlines Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1608
Views: 415912

Re: United Airlines Network Thread - 2022

I tend to claim that the much smaller Continental back then had Europe covered better than United now. I don't think that's accurate. UA flies more people across the Atlantic than they did 10 years ago. They have a very aggressive schedule this summer and could end up as the #1 US TATL carrier. (No...

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by SESGDL
Tue May 10, 2022 12:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1743
Views: 334543

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2022

SEA is probably JL's weakest North America station looking at their loads, plus it only launched in 2019, and was suspended entirely for one-year so it hardly has strong feet to stand on. Let them figure out this route before folks start daydreaming about a KIX flight. Plus lets also not ignore the...

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by SESGDL
Tue May 10, 2022 2:43 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1282
Views: 254251

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Here is some data I found regarding DL's hub operations at ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC, LGA, JFK, BOS, SEA, and LAX. Data is broken up by each individual hub. All flights are based on a random Thursday in July (21st). *NOTICE: These numbers were pulled from about three weeks ago and they are subject to chan...

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by SESGDL
Tue May 03, 2022 2:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1282
Views: 254251

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

DL has recently pushed back the resumption dates of CVG-ORD/DFW to 11/6/2022 and the resumption date of CVG-SFO nonstop service to 11/7/2022. Does DL really need to keep CVG-ORD/DFW/SFO nonstop service in its schedules with DL having been off of these three routes for more than 2 years (apart from ...

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by SESGDL
Tue Apr 26, 2022 1:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022
Replies: 1611
Views: 422371

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

A319 N805UA is scheduled to exit GYR storage and ferry to BFM For heavy MX and return to service. Down to 5 319’s in storage Not even close. There are still 14 CFM’s in storage plus 2 on order. And another 13 IAE aircraft in storage. So nearly 30 United A319’s yet to be put into service or parted o...

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by SESGDL
Wed Apr 20, 2022 10:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Projected Q1 U.S. Airline Earnings -- Big Losses
Replies: 95
Views: 20592

Re: Projected Q1 U.S. Airline Earnings -- Big Losses

United posted its Q1 numbers. Net loss of $1.4 billion on $7.6 billion revenues. (-21% vs 2019) https://ir.united.com/node/29456/html Earnings call tomorrow. That appears to be worse than what was originally forecasted. The call will be interesting. Jeremy Going back to the first post, the analysts...

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by SESGDL
Wed Apr 20, 2022 10:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 2638
Views: 374408

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

:old: The numbers don't lie “The demand environment is the strongest it’s been in my 30 years in the industry,” Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby said in the statement. "The carrier’s operating margin in the second quarter will be about 10%, according to a statement Wednesday. Fueled by boom...

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by SESGDL
Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 2638
Views: 374408

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

:old: The numbers don't lie “The demand environment is the strongest it’s been in my 30 years in the industry,” Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby said in the statement. "The carrier’s operating margin in the second quarter will be about 10%, according to a statement Wednesday. Fueled by boom...

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by SESGDL
Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Projected Q1 U.S. Airline Earnings -- Big Losses
Replies: 95
Views: 20592

Re: Projected Q1 U.S. Airline Earnings -- Big Losses

https://ir.united.com/node/29456/html

Earnings call tomorrow.


That appears to be worse than what was originally forecasted. The call will be interesting.

Jeremy
-->

LAXintl wrote:
United posted its Q1 numbers.

Net loss of $1.4 billion on $7.6 billion revenues. (-21% vs 2019)

https://ir.united.com/node/29456/html

Earnings call tomorrow.


That appears to be worse than what was originally forecasted. The call will be interesting.

Jeremy

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by SESGDL
Wed Apr 20, 2022 3:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1282
Views: 254251

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

You're skewing the facts to try to fit your narrative. Not sure where anyone stated that DL has always maintained a sizeable presence at LAX since the WA merger - although I'll go out and say now that DL HAS always maintained a sizeable presence at LAX since the WA merger, always remaining one of t...

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by SESGDL
Wed Apr 20, 2022 1:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1282
Views: 254251

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

They didn't. MCO & TPA were the only routes moved to Song; FLL was added as a Song route, but didn't last long. Wrong. Song also operated LAX-BOS, JFK and BDL among the above listed routes. And the whole Song experience didn’t last long so not sure why it’s relevant to say that LAX-FLL didn’t l...

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by SESGDL
Wed Apr 20, 2022 3:05 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1282
Views: 254251

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Adding a bit more context here, DL's presence at LAX really fluctuated in the 90s and early 2000s. Service had been significantly drawn down in the early 2000s, but then DL made another push at LAX circa 2006 using a lot of capacity from ExpressJet flying intra-west and niche routes into regional M...

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by SESGDL
Thu Apr 14, 2022 2:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 2638
Views: 374408

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/airlines-costs-are-going-up-and-fares-are-going-up-analyst-says/ar-AAWbac0?ocid=BingNewsSearch "We think airfares are going up on average about 7% a month for the next three or four months," she said. "Then, of course, on the other side is the co...

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by SESGDL
Wed Apr 13, 2022 3:47 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1282
Views: 254251

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

https://news.delta.com/delta-launches-l ... co-shuttle


Actually DL had been flying the route for over 3 years by that point, and it started at 4x daily in 2010.


DL has operated LAX-SFO continually since the 80s.

Jeremy
-->

Sightseer wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
When DL started LAX-SFO it was 14x daily.

https://news.delta.com/delta-launches-l ... co-shuttle


Actually DL had been flying the route for over 3 years by that point, and it started at 4x daily in 2010.


DL has operated LAX-SFO continually since the 80s.

Jeremy

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by SESGDL
Wed Apr 13, 2022 3:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1282
Views: 254251

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

When in the world is DL going to add SEA-DFW? Such a massive hole. There’s no reason DL can’t through a couple A220s to satisfy the frequent flier base. Odd that DL continues to avoid this market (LAX-ORD is another). Jeremy They don't add flights for non-revs. DL will need to compete on SEA-DFW/DA...

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by SESGDL
Tue Apr 12, 2022 12:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Detroit (DTW) Aviation Thread - 2022
Replies: 597
Views: 83700

Re: Detroit (DTW) Aviation Thread - 2022

The Seattle metro area has more money than DTW. Not sure why you’re trying to argue that. You’re quick to “fanboy” every other city thread but are constantly trying to prop up DTW to be something it’s not. SEA is a significantly larger economy than DTW, and the gap will only continue to grow. Findi...

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by SESGDL
Mon Apr 11, 2022 10:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Detroit (DTW) Aviation Thread - 2022
Replies: 597
Views: 83700

Re: Detroit (DTW) Aviation Thread - 2022

#2) Metro Detroit -- including Detroit city -- consistently ranks near the top in discretionary income. Show us your data source. The article hyperlinked below shows metro Detroit having a 15th percentile discretionary income, and Seattle 80th percentile, among the 75 largest U.S. metro areas. No, ...

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by SESGDL
Mon Apr 11, 2022 10:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1282
Views: 254251

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

When in the world is DL going to add SEA-DFW? Such a massive hole. There’s no reason DL can’t through a couple A220s to satisfy the frequent flier base. Odd that DL continues to avoid this market (LAX-ORD is another).

Jeremy

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by SESGDL
Sat Apr 09, 2022 4:31 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1282
Views: 254251

Re: Delta’s long term SLC plans

"All these people" flying from all over into SLC, yet SLC competes with CLT for generating the least local traffic of any trunk hub... and pre-COVID, over 40% of local enplanements were to/from SoCal & LAS. RIC, SBN, BHM, CHS, SYR, etc. will happen when DL launches the 380NEO and turn...

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by SESGDL
Wed Apr 06, 2022 11:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1282
Views: 254251

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

I don't believe so. I thought we would see an additional Australian city before more than daily LAX-SYD, but glad to see an increase nonetheless. I will add this is funny in that so many people were convinced DL would drop LAX-SYD when the Virgin Australia deal ended. The current industry environme...

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by SESGDL
Wed Apr 06, 2022 4:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit
Replies: 992
Views: 155265

Re: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit

And you’re basing this on what exactly? You have route P&L access to know? And it’s not NK’s route network. It’s a combined route network, with the inherent synergies that come. B6's 2021 costs (CASM) are roughly 41% higher than NK's, not adjusted for stage length. Adjusted for stage length and...

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by SESGDL
Wed Apr 06, 2022 4:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Network Thread - 2022
Replies: 1282
Views: 254251

Re: Delta’s long term SLC plans

The cost of living in Utah has sky rocketed in the last few years, mostly driven by high home prices and that is keeping businesses from relocating to Utah and instead choosing to go to places like Texas. I'd say it's skyrocketed in the last year. I was in consideration for a job in SLC in March of...

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