You are proving my point, these numbers don't mean much without context. Looking at these numbers you would think G4 & AS are the least profitable. That's not the case, in fact AS is guiding double digit margin in Q2. https://investor.alaskaair.com/static-files/687f32c3-5a86-4380-a268-cc7543131...
Jump to postThe consensus is that DL's earnings with be about equal to UA's and AA's combined and close to twice each. As I just said earnings are based on margin or EPS. DL is not 2x UA in either. Earnings are not based on margin. Margin is based on earnings. These are the present analysts' estimates for Q2 e...
Jump to postI'd be pretty surprised if AA filed in the next 12 months, barring a further global meltdown/additional pandemic etc. As everyone has stated long term debt is a problem, but it's not really that unmanageable. Cash flow they are able to sustain, and while stock price at $13 (under $10 billion in cap...
Jump to postIn the long run I do think there is room for only two large legacies. United will be one of them. The fight to be had is between AA and DL. It has commenced pre-covid. IMO. Huh? Why United? DL has been the healthier carrier for more than a decade. Operational meltdowns and DL’s still making twice t...
Jump to postReally enjoyed this one, thank you!
Jump to postThe second major point is that I believe having a lackluster network operation at DTW/MSP will eventually catch up to Delta, if they can’t get it corrected in time before AA/UA are able to capitalize on it. And it has nothing to do with DTW or MSP point of sale. DTW/MSP flyers are going to remain l...
Jump to postI don't disagree with most of what you've said but I still feel DL now has DTW and MSP operating at a bare minimum of flights to continue to be viable. If they are forced into a decision between the two...what happens? I've looked at the 2020 operations of major US airports recently. The true hubs ...
Jump to postAthens and Tel Aviv are not going anywhere even if the JetBlue partnership goes away. AA has more than enough JFK slots to keep those routes. They are always full full full. Transatlantic load factors are through the roof for everyone right now. The key is profits. In this environment with fuel and...
Jump to postOr maybe it’s because AUS is over-served and the yields are garbage at the moment. Also, you do realize B6 getting a lot bigger at LAX and South Florida (both of which are pretty much certain under a combined B6/NK) poses a much bigger threat to AA than a big B6 at AUS ever would, right? Very true....
Jump to posthttps://thepointsguy.com/news/us-dropping-return-covid-testing-requirement-air-travel/ Looks like the US is dropping the COVID testing requirement for international arrivals. I wonder if that will boost summer demand for United or if it's already too late. I would imagine all the airlines will bene...
Jump to postJust means more infected people will travel and increase the chances of infecting their fellow travelers be it at the airport or onboard. The testing was a barrier that at least let people know and made them wait until they could test negative. Even though there are tens of millions more domestic p...
Jump to postJL also likely needs to serve TYO nonstop from SEA to remain relevant to AS's FF base in Greater Seattle, and TYO is a business destination for some global companies headquartered in Greater Seattle such as Amazon, Costco, Microsoft, and Starbucks. Just keep in mind, a couple of those companies you...
Jump to postAA is strong in OneWorld gateway markets and beyond in the Pacific: SYD, MEL, AKL, NRT/HND, ICN, HKG, PVG and SIN. PVG/PEK/HKG will resume from SEA/DFW when this Chinese lockdown mess is over as there's lots of CX FF's in PVG/PEK/HKG. OneWorld is KING in HKG. Australia has already opened up and NZ ...
Jump to postNot sure how this is different for passengers than a similar length flight on a 757 or 321LR/321XLR.
Jeremy
Yet another schedule reduction on the way likely this weekend. Not demand based whatsoever. Crew shortages are the culprit. Schedule too ambitious for the crew hours available starting in July, I believe it is. Gotta love it, or not, if you as a customer are caught up in it every single time they'v...
Jump to postYet another schedule reduction on the way likely this weekend. Not demand based whatsoever. Crew shortages are the culprit. Schedule too ambitious for the crew hours available starting in July, I believe it is. Gotta love it, or not, if you as a customer are caught up in it every single time they'v...
Jump to postCertainly becoming clear some AA hubs like CLT, DFW and MIA are going bonkers while others LAX, PHX, ORD are a drag. Will be interesting to see if the strong ones can financially make up for the ones that are struggling as the recovery continues to be uneven domestically and in AA's international m...
Jump to postWatch JetBlue get bought they just cut and cut and seem to be in desperate need of another airline. To be fair every airline cut, Jetblue just was way over bullish on their growth of +10-15% more ASM's above 2019 while everyone else except for the ULCC's are still well below 2019 levels. They will ...
Jump to postGreat report, thanks for sharing!
Jump to postOver the past week I’ve noticed a decrease in Delta‘s flying out of South Bend. They have normally had multiple flights a day to each of their hubs but, for example, today they only had one flight to Detroit and the same is true for tomorrow. Any ideas why the sudden decrease in flying in/out of So...
Jump to postI tend to claim that the much smaller Continental back then had Europe covered better than United now. I don't think that's accurate. UA flies more people across the Atlantic than they did 10 years ago. They have a very aggressive schedule this summer and could end up as the #1 US TATL carrier. (No...
Jump to postSEA is probably JL's weakest North America station looking at their loads, plus it only launched in 2019, and was suspended entirely for one-year so it hardly has strong feet to stand on. Let them figure out this route before folks start daydreaming about a KIX flight. Plus lets also not ignore the...
Jump to postHere is some data I found regarding DL's hub operations at ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC, LGA, JFK, BOS, SEA, and LAX. Data is broken up by each individual hub. All flights are based on a random Thursday in July (21st). *NOTICE: These numbers were pulled from about three weeks ago and they are subject to chan...
Jump to postDL has recently pushed back the resumption dates of CVG-ORD/DFW to 11/6/2022 and the resumption date of CVG-SFO nonstop service to 11/7/2022. Does DL really need to keep CVG-ORD/DFW/SFO nonstop service in its schedules with DL having been off of these three routes for more than 2 years (apart from ...
Jump to postA319 N805UA is scheduled to exit GYR storage and ferry to BFM For heavy MX and return to service. Down to 5 319’s in storage Not even close. There are still 14 CFM’s in storage plus 2 on order. And another 13 IAE aircraft in storage. So nearly 30 United A319’s yet to be put into service or parted o...
Jump to postUnited posted its Q1 numbers. Net loss of $1.4 billion on $7.6 billion revenues. (-21% vs 2019) https://ir.united.com/node/29456/html Earnings call tomorrow. That appears to be worse than what was originally forecasted. The call will be interesting. Jeremy Going back to the first post, the analysts...
Jump to post:old: The numbers don't lie “The demand environment is the strongest it’s been in my 30 years in the industry,” Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby said in the statement. "The carrier’s operating margin in the second quarter will be about 10%, according to a statement Wednesday. Fueled by boom...
Jump to post:old: The numbers don't lie “The demand environment is the strongest it’s been in my 30 years in the industry,” Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby said in the statement. "The carrier’s operating margin in the second quarter will be about 10%, according to a statement Wednesday. Fueled by boom...
Jump to postLAXintl wrote:United posted its Q1 numbers.
Net loss of $1.4 billion on $7.6 billion revenues. (-21% vs 2019)
https://ir.united.com/node/29456/html
Earnings call tomorrow.
You're skewing the facts to try to fit your narrative. Not sure where anyone stated that DL has always maintained a sizeable presence at LAX since the WA merger - although I'll go out and say now that DL HAS always maintained a sizeable presence at LAX since the WA merger, always remaining one of t...
Jump to postThey didn't. MCO & TPA were the only routes moved to Song; FLL was added as a Song route, but didn't last long. Wrong. Song also operated LAX-BOS, JFK and BDL among the above listed routes. And the whole Song experience didn’t last long so not sure why it’s relevant to say that LAX-FLL didn’t l...
Jump to postAdding a bit more context here, DL's presence at LAX really fluctuated in the 90s and early 2000s. Service had been significantly drawn down in the early 2000s, but then DL made another push at LAX circa 2006 using a lot of capacity from ExpressJet flying intra-west and niche routes into regional M...
Jump to posthttps://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/airlines-costs-are-going-up-and-fares-are-going-up-analyst-says/ar-AAWbac0?ocid=BingNewsSearch "We think airfares are going up on average about 7% a month for the next three or four months," she said. "Then, of course, on the other side is the co...
Jump to postSightseer wrote:MIflyer12 wrote:
Actually DL had been flying the route for over 3 years by that point, and it started at 4x daily in 2010.
When in the world is DL going to add SEA-DFW? Such a massive hole. There’s no reason DL can’t through a couple A220s to satisfy the frequent flier base. Odd that DL continues to avoid this market (LAX-ORD is another). Jeremy They don't add flights for non-revs. DL will need to compete on SEA-DFW/DA...
Jump to postThe Seattle metro area has more money than DTW. Not sure why you’re trying to argue that. You’re quick to “fanboy” every other city thread but are constantly trying to prop up DTW to be something it’s not. SEA is a significantly larger economy than DTW, and the gap will only continue to grow. Findi...
Jump to post#2) Metro Detroit -- including Detroit city -- consistently ranks near the top in discretionary income. Show us your data source. The article hyperlinked below shows metro Detroit having a 15th percentile discretionary income, and Seattle 80th percentile, among the 75 largest U.S. metro areas. No, ...
Jump to postWhen in the world is DL going to add SEA-DFW? Such a massive hole. There’s no reason DL can’t through a couple A220s to satisfy the frequent flier base. Odd that DL continues to avoid this market (LAX-ORD is another).
Jeremy
"All these people" flying from all over into SLC, yet SLC competes with CLT for generating the least local traffic of any trunk hub... and pre-COVID, over 40% of local enplanements were to/from SoCal & LAS. RIC, SBN, BHM, CHS, SYR, etc. will happen when DL launches the 380NEO and turn...
Jump to postI don't believe so. I thought we would see an additional Australian city before more than daily LAX-SYD, but glad to see an increase nonetheless. I will add this is funny in that so many people were convinced DL would drop LAX-SYD when the Virgin Australia deal ended. The current industry environme...
Jump to postAnd you’re basing this on what exactly? You have route P&L access to know? And it’s not NK’s route network. It’s a combined route network, with the inherent synergies that come. B6's 2021 costs (CASM) are roughly 41% higher than NK's, not adjusted for stage length. Adjusted for stage length and...
Jump to postThe cost of living in Utah has sky rocketed in the last few years, mostly driven by high home prices and that is keeping businesses from relocating to Utah and instead choosing to go to places like Texas. I'd say it's skyrocketed in the last year. I was in consideration for a job in SLC in March of...
Jump to postNK’s route network won’t be profitable with B6’s costs. And you’re basing this on what exactly? You have route P&L access to know? And it’s not NK’s route network. It’s a combined route network, with the inherent synergies that come. B6's 2021 costs (CASM) are roughly 41% higher than NK's, not ...
Jump to postNK’s route network won’t be profitable with B6’s costs. This is purely another WN/FL situation, a merger to eliminate a competitor. In this instance the largest ULCC in the US. I hope this fails.
Jeremy
I agree SLC has pretty decent location for a hub - it certainly isn't bad. But, I think the major things holding it back is it isn't a huge city (ATL, DFW, etc.) / large city with outsized business presence (e.g., CLT with banking) and that DL has two coastal hubs (LAX and SEA) that siphon a lot of...
Jump to postI don't buy the geographic argument. Isn't SLC very well situated to serve the Northeast to California? Two big population centers. No...ORD/MSP/DEN/DTW/PHX are all more geographically suited to connect those traffic flows...connecting in SLC adds roughly 150-250 miles to the trip. It's often actua...
Jump to postHello, everyone I had a conversation recently with a fellow student concerning the already retired 757's that belonged to American Airlines, both pre-merger AA birds and those inherited from US Airways. Both from personal perspectives and YouTube videos, there seems to have been a change in sound. ...
Jump to postThe article you linked says UA is the largest airline between the US and Europe. Which sounds about right...UA has a massive transatlantic presence. This is a recent shift, a result of UA not retiring any of its widebody aircraft and being for aggressive with bringing back Transatlantic capacity (a...
Jump to postnotgranola wrote:First 321N routes have been announced
Inaugural BOS-SFO May 20
SEA DEN SAN start in August
That is purely playing with words for effect. Falling and descending (which means going down) are essentially the same thing. When you descend down the steps, do you tell people you just fell down the steps? I doubt it. Falling implies uncontrolled. Descending suggests controlled. Again, playing wi...
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