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by Amiga500
Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: So how New is the 777X?
Replies: 157
Views: 18595

Re: So how New is the 777X?

When the 77W retirements start we will see if they choose a smaller aircraft or a 4% larger one. It will be very interesting to see. Of course, we'll need more visibility of where performance of both airframes sit relative to one another. 789 vs A359 would indicate that airlines are happy to take o...

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by Amiga500
Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: So how New is the 777X?
Replies: 157
Views: 18595

Re: So how New is the 777X?

The Engineers on the 777X are NOT the same Engineers on the 737Max. And they won't be the same nor the Management that oversaw the 737Mx program, And? that's if the project management team even still Works FOR Boeing. From what has been uncovered by the 737MAX debacle, the engineers had their hands...

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by Amiga500
Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will an aircraft struggle with demand if its size exceeds the “80 metre box limit”?
Replies: 7
Views: 1824

Re: Will an aircraft struggle with demand if its size exceeds the “80 metre box limit”?

The 777X exceeds the box limit when it doesn't matter - and falls within the box limit when it does.

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by Amiga500
Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: So how New is the 777X?
Replies: 157
Views: 18595

Re: So how New is the 777X?

Doing it for a living, even winning awards, does not mean you're good at it. Plenty of managers win tons of money before high-tailing it ahead of catastrophic failure. Assumptions can be eliminated. Plenty of work in the financial world has proven this over and over again. No, I don't assume the tr...

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DY Financial Discussion - 2020
Replies: 584
Views: 146912

Re: DY about to go bust?

The post above prompted a thought about shrinking to profit. Without turning this into an A vs. B - the risk exposure to Norwegian would have been much reduced if they could have ordered the A321XLR when formulating their business plan. Obviously its irrelevant to DY now - but the XLR might be the a...

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: So how New is the 777X?
Replies: 157
Views: 18595

Re: So how New is the 777X?

VSMUT wrote:
They pushed the 777X into the dead VLA territory by doing that.


I suppose that is ultimately the question - how big is too big?

Its a battle of CASM vs. RASM.

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: So how New is the 777X?
Replies: 157
Views: 18595

Re: So how New is the 777X?

I agree. Most engineers will tell you most automated test suites are garbage. Testers tend to get rewarded in proportion to the number of tests they generate, so they tend to do countless variations on themes rather than doing more themes because that's the easy way to make the numbers look good. M...

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: So how New is the 777X?
Replies: 157
Views: 18595

Re: So how New is the 777X?

Sigh, nope. You, have, it, backwards. Start FROM the goal/outcome, prove the mathematical requirements to reach the goal, and then implement a system aligned/compliant to the math. That leaves no assumptions. That's the difference between a REAL process engineer and an outdated old guard who can't ...

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: So how New is the 777X?
Replies: 157
Views: 18595

Re: So how New is the 777X?

StTim wrote:
I have totally lost track of what he is trying to argue. I follow no logical thread in any of the posts so far.


He's not related to Guy Fawkes anyway.

That fella had his head screwed on. :lol:

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: So how New is the 777X?
Replies: 157
Views: 18595

Re: So how New is the 777X?

Why are you continually going on about random systems?!? There is nothing random about it. Furthermore, you again demonstrate your failure to understand the implications of testing, blind or otherwise. You have ASSUMED that by training someone - they then are able to react as you ASSUME when that tr...

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta A221 Schedule Reliability struggle
Replies: 104
Views: 26104

Re: Delta A221 Schedule Reliability struggle

There almost certainly are issues - but these data are far too coarse to confidently confirm the extent of that.

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: So how New is the 777X?
Replies: 157
Views: 18595

Re: So how New is the 777X?

StTim wrote:
If the system is untestable should it be anywhere near a plane?


Of course it shouldn't.

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: So how New is the 777X?
Replies: 157
Views: 18595

Re: So how New is the 777X?

Faulting Boeing for undertesting an impossible to test system is ridiculous. You have to make some assumptions about human behavior in that scenario, and those assumptions have to be the outcome basis of training. Now, Boeing ROYALLY screwed up pilot training, so you got me there, but the rest of y...

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: So how New is the 777X?
Replies: 157
Views: 18595

Re: So how New is the 777X?

Nope, putting process before maths is a surefire path to failure. You match the process to the math. You match your manufacturing to your design. What a load of ____. If folks don't test to ensure their assumptions are correct - that says more about the standards of their work and the accepted stan...

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by Amiga500
Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: So how New is the 777X?
Replies: 157
Views: 18595

Re: So how New is the 777X?

Your trust and feelings on the matter are immaterial. Can you look at the math and prove it's faulty? Can you look at the materials and manufacturing processes behind the base parameters of the math and prove they don't meet spec? If not, you don't get a seat at the table to say they can't do their...

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by Amiga500
Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Can Pratt & Whitney get on the 787 or A350?
Replies: 18
Views: 3052

Re: Can Pratt & Whitney get on the 787 or A350?

P&W need to get their existing house in order first before looking at adding an extension. GTF problems need to be sorted, and fixes need to prove themselves over time. If Airbus do an A322, or if P&W can do a thrust bump for the 321XLR, then they can creep the existing GTF a little. As for ...

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by Amiga500
Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta A221 Schedule Reliability struggle
Replies: 104
Views: 26104

Re: Delta A221 Schedule Reliability struggle

Etheereal wrote:
Prost wrote:
The DC9-30 was the first plane I worked back in 1989, and dammit, it’ll be the last one I work in 15 years!

What does that mean?


The things go on forever

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by Amiga500
Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta A221 Schedule Reliability struggle
Replies: 104
Views: 26104

Re: Delta A221 Schedule Reliability struggle

There are a number of component problems, which are not unusual with a new program. However, the supply chain is unable to keep up with spares and there does not appear to be a plan to redesign parts to improve reliability. Some fundamental problems that larger, mature programs aren’t facing. There...

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by Amiga500
Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR
Replies: 44
Views: 8541

Re: Leeham News: Alaska Airlines should buy A321XLR

How many city pairs would an XLR open compared to a Max9? If there is no tangible additions, then paying the premium for an XLR doesn't stack up. An A321N might - if it delivers better performance over the existing mission set of Alaska. edit: Can the 737-10 reliably do west coast from ANC? [can the...

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by Amiga500
Fri Feb 21, 2020 5:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: MC-21 Development Thread
Replies: 521
Views: 148786

Re: MC-21 Development Thread

If the slide's figures are accurate (and I'm doing the math correctly), Aeroflot is assuming a higher average speed for the MC21 by about 55 kilometers/hour to get its superior GASK figure. Is that realistic? CFRP wing spar enables thinner wing with lower critical Mach number. Entirely realistic :b...

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by Amiga500
Fri Feb 21, 2020 5:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020
Replies: 708
Views: 95402

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Imagine if another 737 were to crash as a result of a design or manufacturing fault shortly after the RTS? Confidence in the model - and in the company - would be shattered. While the latter would be repairable, the former probably wouldn't. A USA government funded agency charged with safety of the...

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1642
Views: 155156

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Or find a better way to weave the tape to prevent delamination at lower thickness... Good luck with that! Mitsubishi's already working on this for a future MRJ. They're looking to cut 30% off the required thickness. Having worked with Mitsubishi on MRJ - thankfully briefly - I'd advise you don't ho...

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo
Replies: 71
Views: 9394

Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ty-upgrade

GE reckons the gap to -1000 pkC is 3-3.5%.
GE reckons the gap to -1000-TEN is 1.5%.
-->

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... ty-upgrade

GE reckons the gap to -1000 pkC is 3-3.5%.
GE reckons the gap to -1000-TEN is 1.5%.

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo
Replies: 71
Views: 9394

Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Given the GEnx is already 2% more efficient then the Trent 1000 TEN (see Air New Zealand) and is still awaiting PIPs from the GE9X program, it wouldn't be a tough target for GE at all. That's 4-5% better fuel burn in total if not more. Do you have a link please? https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/...

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo
Replies: 71
Views: 9394

Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

Could GE be persuaded to do a smaller GEnx?

Cutting the weight down to <5 Tonne and thrust down to maybe 265 kN or less might allow for a lightened, smaller winged, shorter range A330-500 to be launched.

Is there the market? Not sure its a worthwhile investment or not with the A321XLR.

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1642
Views: 155156

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Airbus is basically forcing Boeing to do something in response to A220 and the 6XW Tube (extra wide) won't cut it. It's just whether or not Boeing forces Airbus to respond by going to 7W for NMA/NSA. If Boeing goes 6W Airbus can stick with A320 tube. I don't think it's as simple as that. If it work...

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1642
Views: 155156

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Completely disagree on the CFRP weight savings. The panels can be made thinner just fine. And Boeing's production process is the equivalent of a unibody, whereas Airbus' is panel on frame, so Boeing achieves greater weight efficiency at the same strength, even if small. Plus, a short/medium-haul pl...

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo
Replies: 71
Views: 9394

Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

TFawkes wrote:
Given the GEnx is already 2% more efficient then the Trent 1000 TEN (see Air New Zealand) and is still awaiting PIPs from the GE9X program, it wouldn't be a tough target for GE at all. That's 4-5% better fuel burn in total if not more.


Do you have a link please?

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo
Replies: 71
Views: 9394

Re: Report: GE may offer engine for a330neo

No chance.

RR will have a watertight contract on that - and Airbus will have had no interest in making sure there was a hole in that boat.

Furthermore, the Trent 7000 is beating fuel burn targets. RR have a way to go on other little issues, but GE would have a tough target.

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020
Replies: 708
Views: 95402

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

Just another sign of Boeing's endemic cultural problems. Shareholder value is priority first, second, and third at the expense of cheapening everything else like safety and quality. It is a really dangerous game Boeing are playing. Imagine if another 737 were to crash as a result of a design or man...

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1642
Views: 155156

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

And bang a fancy new CFRP wing on the A321 and it claws both of those 2% increments back again, whilst still retaining huge commonality with the massive stock of existing A321's.... I doubt that. The Boeing NSA carbon/lithium fuselage tube and tail would be 1000kg lighter than the A321. Disagree th...

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by Amiga500
Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UPDATED: Bombardier Sells Remaining Stake in A220 Program
Replies: 249
Views: 33129

Re: UPDATED: Bombardier Sells Remaining Stake in A220 Program

Pierre tried to outdo his father by starting 3 Part 25 programs simultaneously and running transport business. With the crash of 2009, the bizjet division had to support the whole enterprise amid falling orders for the CRJs. He might have gotten away with one Part 25 program, maybe two in the best ...

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by Amiga500
Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Bamboo Airways Plans To Buy 12 Boeing 777Xs Worth $5 Billion
Replies: 89
Views: 12657

Re: Bamboo Airways Plans To Buy 12 Boeing 777Xs Worth $5 Billion

Ah, same as that big order for the CSeries in Africa.

When they are delivered I'll believe it.

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by Amiga500
Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A321 wing area enlargement
Replies: 5
Views: 2405

A321 wing area enlargement

Just had a thought.... The A321 wing area is 122.4 sqm, the flap area is 21.1 sqm[1] and the flaps have a span of ~0.78 of the overall wing span. Which works out at an average chord (not MAC) of around 0.8m. If: - the flap track were adjusted such that the first 20% of aft travel were at 0 deg angle...

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by Amiga500
Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:04 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 777X vs A350 CASM
Replies: 259
Views: 27955

Re: 777X vs A350 CASM

OP deserves more respect as if pundits here are not aware that airlines and industries uses normalized cabin for calculating CASM. What a shame! Do they ____. Airbus and Boeing both pull all sorts of shenanigans when it comes to comparing performance per "seat". There is no single figure ...

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by Amiga500
Mon Feb 17, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UPDATED: Bombardier Sells Remaining Stake in A220 Program
Replies: 249
Views: 33129

Re: UPDATED: Bombardier Sells Remaining Stake in A220 Program

I believe with about 130 deliveries per year the Business Aircraft unit could slowly reduce the remaining debt. It will need a lot of discipline, obviously. I partially agree with the premise. But where does the money for investment in mid-life upgrades or in the next product come from? That is an ...

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by Amiga500
Mon Feb 17, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UPDATED: Bombardier Sells Remaining Stake in A220 Program
Replies: 249
Views: 33129

Re: UPDATED: Bombardier Sells Remaining Stake in A220 Program

Yeah, unfortunately its hard to see a future for a standalone EMB (who just may be the best run of all four big OEMs - Airbus, Boeing & Bombardier). If they had a runaway success in E2, then it'd be a different matter - but for whatever reason, its not gaining much market traction. It will be i...

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by Amiga500
Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UPDATED: Bombardier Sells Remaining Stake in A220 Program
Replies: 249
Views: 33129

Re: UPDATED: Bombardier Sells Remaining Stake in A220 Program

Yeah, unfortunately its hard to see a future for a standalone EMB (who just may be the best run of all four big OEMs - Airbus, Boeing & Bombardier).

If they had a runaway success in E2, then it'd be a different matter - but for whatever reason, its not gaining much market traction.

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by Amiga500
Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: CFM Leap engine option for A220
Replies: 20
Views: 4581

Re: CFM Leap engine option for A220

Maybe it is better idea for Airbus to go shopping again and buy Pratt and solve problems with GTF inhouse. I believe that would be illegal. I believe aircraft manufacturers are not allowed to manufacture their own engines. Correct me if I’m wrong. Why would that be illegal? Auto manufacturers make ...

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by Amiga500
Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1642
Views: 155156

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

If boarding time was the be-all and end-all, then the A321 cabin-flex would have been optimised around boarding at a revised L2 door (they could have moved it a bit further ahead of the wing LE). Instead they got rid of the L2 door. Which should show exactly where priorities lie. Isn't that overlay...

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by Amiga500
Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1642
Views: 155156

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

I’m sorry if this has already been suggested but I am finding this one of the more difficult threads to follow logically. Assuming (yes I know, a dangerous start already), that the concept will be a single aisle design, why could they not allow for it to use dual aerobridges at the front like a wid...

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by Amiga500
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: We don't actually fully understand how planes can fly!.- Who knew?!
Replies: 87
Views: 10677

Re: We don't actually fully understand how planes can fly!.- Who knew?!

I do not understand your comment about the velocities. In still air the velocity on the downside is more or less the velocity of the aircraft and on the top of the wing it’s the speed of the aircraft plus the extra velocity necessary to compensate for the longer way. But maybe I misunderstood your ...

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by Amiga500
Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UPDATED: Bombardier Sells Remaining Stake in A220 Program
Replies: 249
Views: 33129

Re: Official: Bombardier sells remaining stake in A220 program

Nicely played by Quebec, who managed to increase their share at no cost (not sure how... Did they take on some of the debt?) and secured local jobs. This was their main goal all along. Congrats to Airbus. $591 million for an aircraft that cost $7b to develop is a good deal, I would say... It will o...

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by Amiga500
Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UPDATED: Bombardier Sells Remaining Stake in A220 Program
Replies: 249
Views: 33129

Re: WSJ: Airbus in Advanced Talks to Acquire Bombardier Stake in A220 Program

Someone said it would be 500 million dollars. This deal is a little bit more than 500 million dollars, but as a bonus Airbus (via Stelia) got more than Bombardier's stake in Airbus Canada Limited Partnership. The guy was not too wrong in his estimation. Broken clocks are right twice a day. Why aren...

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by Amiga500
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UPDATED: Bombardier Sells Remaining Stake in A220 Program
Replies: 249
Views: 33129

Re: WSJ: Airbus in Advanced Talks to Acquire Bombardier Stake in A220 Program

Here is the plan. 1. Transform the partnership into a limited liability corporation 2. Airbus acquired BBD's part at 500 million dollars 3. The new company *Airbus Canada Inc." increases its capital by creating new shares offered at NYSE and TSE. The dilution of capital puts Airbus' stake at 4...

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by Amiga500
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UPDATED: Bombardier Sells Remaining Stake in A220 Program
Replies: 249
Views: 33129

Re: WSJ: Airbus in Advanced Talks to Acquire Bombardier Stake in A220 Program

So why oh why we only hear about the A220-500 on A.net? Why has Airbus already not jumped on the bandwagon and started offering the extension? I'll leave the other as a difference of opinion. But with regards this: https://simpleflying.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Screenshot-2019-11-05-at-19.36.5...

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by Amiga500
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UPDATED: Bombardier Sells Remaining Stake in A220 Program
Replies: 249
Views: 33129

Re: UPDATED: Bombardier Sells Remaining Stake in A220 Program

BBD spent, what $6 Billion in development costs? It has now divested its ~32% stake in that, and its 32% share of all A220 profits going forward not just the current backlog of ~600, for USD 591 million and not having to fund further shortfalls. That is how poor they see prospects for even long-ter...

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UPDATED: Bombardier Sells Remaining Stake in A220 Program
Replies: 249
Views: 33129

Re: WSJ: Airbus in Advanced Talks to Acquire Bombardier Stake in A220 Program

The 220 is a good plane, we all know that. Whether or not it will be a great seller is still, excuse the phrase, up in the air. They should do whatever it takes to get Southwest to make an order for 500x -300s assembled in Alabama. Southwest seems comfortable with the smaller seat counts compared t...

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: We don't actually fully understand how planes can fly!.- Who knew?!
Replies: 87
Views: 10677

Re: We don't actually fully understand how planes can fly!.- Who knew?!

... and there was me thinking the starting vortex (which obviously then expands to include the other 3 in the system, bound vortex and two trailing vortices) with Kutta condition was well understood... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvV7-9wAXc0 Perhaps Mr McLean is searching for an explanation of w...

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by Amiga500
Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UPDATED: Bombardier Sells Remaining Stake in A220 Program
Replies: 249
Views: 33129

Re: WSJ: Airbus in Advanced Talks to Acquire Bombardier Stake in A220 Program

Is it worthwhile reworking an A320XLR for a few corporate orders?

Otherwise the ACJ320 will have a significant range shortfall compared to the ACJ319. It makes conversions difficult.

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