Search found 280 matches

by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:52 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska Q2 2020 results
Replies: 43
Views: 7166

Re: AS Q2 results

if you look at their size in terms of revenue pre-COVID, they were 1/5 big 3. Their cash burn is definitely less than 1/5 of big 3. So they are doing well. Maybe better than any other airline out there. AS has much less international exposure, so most of their network hasn’t been as dramatically im...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: American Airlines Business & Finance Discussion
Replies: 354
Views: 65635

Re: Updated: American Airlines Business & Finance Discussion

Seriously, where does everyone think the money to fund a merger will come from? Integrating IT and res systems, standardizing fleets and product offerings, this stuff is all extremely expensive people. And that's on top of all the debt that all the airlines will be carrying for a while.

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by ShinyAndChrome
Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Airlines post Q2 2020 Earnings
Replies: 39
Views: 11628

Re: United Airlines post Q2 2020 Earnings

Some random notes from earning call. > Probably toughest period in the companies history > No doubt will be smaller company come Oct 1st. From day one of the crisis has been transparent and direct in communication with staff > Expect "jagged" recovery > Demand stalled at end of June/early...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Announcement for start of new airline in Nigeria: Rano airlines
Replies: 2
Views: 685

Re: Announcement for start of new airline in Nigeria: Rano airlines

For a second I thought it said "Reno Air" and I had to do a double take.

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by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AS responds to B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion
Replies: 157
Views: 26500

Re: AS claps back at B6, announces LAX and FLL expansion

klm617 wrote:
catiii wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Aren't AS and B6 on the same team now ?


No. They aren't.


Call me naïve but I think these three are working together towards a common goal so in my estimation they are all on the same team at this point. But what do I know.


Either you're naive or AS and B6 are breaking the law.

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership
Replies: 323
Views: 40506

Re: AA & B6 announce Northeast Partnership

Well this is quite the coup. I'd love to have been a fly on the wall when they were negotiating codeshare revenue splits. I have an inkling it was very favorable to B6. Agreed on the earlier point re: JFK vs PHL. When international travel does come back in appreciable numbers, it'll be interesting t...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Data from a time gone by: FAA releases calendar year 2019 enplanement data
Replies: 7
Views: 1158

Re: Data from a time gone by: FAA releases calendar year 2019 enplanement data

I almost forgot how bloody long it takes for the government to publish this data.

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by ShinyAndChrome
Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta airlines Q2 2020 earnings thread
Replies: 128
Views: 14641

Re: DAL Q2 2020 earnings thread

Maybe airlines should consider having a rainy day fund for things like this? Or some type of insurance for downfalls? I do think this downturn will see the survivors having action plans in the future for a similar situation. The problem then becomes the airline has all this money just sitting aroun...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Idea - AA/AS Aircraft Trade
Replies: 10
Views: 2643

Re: Idea - AA/AS Aircraft Trade

I doubt AA would want a bunch of used, leased Airbus frames that they wouldn't even be able to fill in the current environment.

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by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 1944
Views: 337493

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

When something is highly successful, you don’t change it. So lots of churn is usually a sign that something is floundering and needs to be fixed. In an industry where the dynamics are constantly shifting, it's insane to view change as a sign of weakness. One of the primary purposes of metal-neutral...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 1944
Views: 337493

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

The JV partners share revenue and losses. So it can't just work for one side. And typically, DL likes to push marginal routes to the partners with lower costs to improve the economics of the flight. Which is good for both partners. One could argue that by tying planes and slots to the JV the partne...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city
Replies: 329
Views: 35188

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Funny take from Crankyflier “This is stupid,” Snyder told TPG on Thursday. “It’s smart that they’re finally leaving Long Beach. However, instead they’ve decided to go into one of the most competitive airports in the world on routes where they’ll really add little value and I don’t see how this work...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 1944
Views: 337493

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

n9801f wrote:
When something is highly successful, you don’t change it.

So lots of churn is usually a sign that something is floundering and needs to be fixed.


I'm trying to think of new ways to call something a reach but this thread is really pushing me.

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by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city
Replies: 329
Views: 35188

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

I wonder how Jetblue will fair there. LAX is highly competitive. IMO they should've just sucked it up and outbid AS for VX. SFO is a better fit for them. To be fair, AS had the deeper pockets and the better credit. If there was at least a shred of truth in what AS management said about the value of...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Jul 10, 2020 3:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 1944
Views: 337493

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

If so, what is the proof that the JV was working well for them? If anything, SRB not selling stake to AF/KL after all the equity swap hoopla never struck the right tone... After having a JV exclusively with DL for a few years, VS then worked with DL to be added to the much larger DL-AF-KL JV. If th...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city
Replies: 329
Views: 35188

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Wonder when these will come on sale.

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by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:56 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 1944
Views: 337493

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

It can also be argued VS was on the road to recovery, bolstered mostly by the gained efficiencies from their DL - AFKL JV for transatlantic traffic. They were estimating to turn a profit in 2021 before the corona-virus. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-virgin-atlantic-results/virgin-atlantic-targ...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:47 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 1944
Views: 337493

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

but no one has actually offered a reason why LA or AM or VS, assuming they come out the other end of this would have any reason to walk away from JVs that, by all accounts, work well enough. The reason these carriers are easy to flip is that Delta wasn't a great network fit for them to begin with a...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 1944
Views: 337493

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Yeah, you are right - the JVs work so well that almost every single one of those JV partners are not able to make profits even in the best of times. Certainly more than they would without access to DL code, feed, and FF members. And when things were "the best of times", airlines like AM, ...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 1944
Views: 337493

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

A lot of that will depend on what shape LATAM emerges from bankruptcy. It is highly doubtful that UA considers AV to be an asset anymore - their Peruvian operations (they even had a Brazilian operation, although separate) were the major component that set the apart form Copa’s network. I don’t see ...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:20 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 1944
Views: 337493

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

I can definitely tell you one that is easy to flip - LATAM - they came to DL for the money, they will definitely go wherever there is more money. Why would LATAM be easy to flip? A joint venture with AA was already rejected, so that seems like an unlikely choice for them to return. United is in the...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway
Replies: 1192
Views: 134143

Re: AS to join OneWorld / AA to make SEA an Intl gateway

I wonder if AS will have to give up some of their current international alliances like SQ, FI and EK when they join OneWorld. Nope, they won't. And these days, that would put them under anti-trust scrutiny. For example, the Korean Air and Delta JBA included a condition that Delta cannot interfere w...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK
Replies: 275
Views: 33996

Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

So theoretically how big can B6 grow to in EWR? I can definitely see possibly UA subleasing their T1 gates to B6 to make a quick penny. (UA has confirmed they have gate and lounge space in T1) I know Kirby's been the most pessimistic person in the US business since this started, but I don't see the...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.
Replies: 92
Views: 15509

Re: Emirates wants to partner with a US3 airline.

No matter how theoretically beneficial some sort of tie up might be, there's no getting around how it would heavily cannibalize US airlines' existing European JVs. I don't see how anyone squares that particular circle.

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu May 28, 2020 11:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA staff layoffs coming
Replies: 86
Views: 13304

Re: AA staff layoffs coming

Election is in November. Could there be another aid package to the airlines to prevent furloughs in October? As others have mentioned in other threads, with unemployment approaching something like 25% airline furloughs likely won't be that salient of an issue even on the heels of the election. That...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu May 28, 2020 10:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Frontier launches 18 new routes for Summer 2020
Replies: 35
Views: 5503

Re: Frontier launches 18 new routes for Summer 2020

TWA772LR wrote:
I would love to be a fly on the wall of Frontiers network planning department


That would be a fun experience no matter what's going on with the world.

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu May 28, 2020 10:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions
Replies: 236
Views: 38906

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Do you have any link on this? New schedule release through January 4, 2021. Full schedule planned by December. Yeah, "On Thursday, the Dallas-based carrier extended its schedule through Jan. 4, 2021. The plans call for about as many flights as it flew at the end of 2019 by the end of this year...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu May 28, 2020 4:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 1944
Views: 337493

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

I think what we will see coming out if this is Delta pretty much the same size at DTW, SEA, SLC and NYC while MSP and ATL getting reduced 15 to 30%. ATL, MSP and BOS were all connection heavy markets or low yielding transfer points while DTW, SEA, SLC and NYC being more O/D based. What I don't see ...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu May 28, 2020 4:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA staff layoffs coming
Replies: 86
Views: 13304

Re: AA staff layoffs coming

So for 20+ years some people have been saying a pandemic is coming, so airlines should have been better prepared? Which means they should have sat on 10's of Billions in cash for the last 20+ years for when the "predicted" pandemic hit? Yes, they should have been more prepared, especially...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu May 28, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest wins JD Power award in both categories for US carriers
Replies: 51
Views: 3936

Re: Southwest wins JD Power award in both categories for US carriers

Congrats to WN. Agreed that the short-haul/long-haul split seems pretty arbitrary, especially the 800mi cutoff. I did some double checking on GCM and by JD Power's standards, something like DCA-MIA or BOS-ORD would count as long-haul. It's all subjective of course, but I'd personally put the cutoff ...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu May 28, 2020 3:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA staff layoffs coming
Replies: 86
Views: 13304

Re: AA staff layoffs coming

No one could have predicted a Global Pandemic. That's exactly why don't say it... I presume that’s also exactly why it is not justifiable that DL made a ‘brilliant’ move investing billions into a loss-making carrier like LA? And here I thought we'd make it to the second page before someone tried tu...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu May 28, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA staff layoffs coming
Replies: 86
Views: 13304

Re: AA staff layoffs coming

No one could have predicted a Global Pandemic. Complete nonsense!!! I really wish people would stop saying that. Virologists, epidemiologists, biologists, and various research institutions have been predicting this for the past two decades at least. Thr truth is the airlines had poor business conti...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu May 28, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA staff layoffs coming
Replies: 86
Views: 13304

Re: AA staff layoffs coming

Is there a reason why they'd state the severance as '3-6 months at 1/3 pay' instead of just '1-2 months pay'?

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by ShinyAndChrome
Tue May 26, 2020 10:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Pays $62m to Cancel purchase of 4 used A350s from LATAM
Replies: 105
Views: 19713

Re: Delta Pays $62m to Cancel A350 Purchase from LATAM

AA was always a better fit until the Chilean government nixed their JV application. Ultimately, what LA needed was a JV and all of the additional US network and point-of-sale access that would have entailed. And there's no reason to believe just yet that those same competitive issues the Chilean au...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Tue May 26, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Pays $62m to Cancel purchase of 4 used A350s from LATAM
Replies: 105
Views: 19713

Re: Delta Pays $62m to Cancel A350 Purchase from LATAM

Interesting argument, Kavok. Although maybe it’s simpler? Here’s my thought: None of the three airlines (Delta, LATAM, Qatar) wants the 4 A350’s right now. QR dumps them back to LA at lease end. DL sheds its obligation to buy them by paying a $62M break fee. Now LA can probably get rid of them in C...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sun May 24, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions
Replies: 236
Views: 38906

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Does anyone think Southwest will put the squeeze on a weakened Delta in ATL? If the last five years have been any indication, ATL isn't a big priority for them. It would make more sense for them to focus on areas they've already been focusing on: DEN, DAL, Southern California, Hawaii whenever the l...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sun May 24, 2020 7:09 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package
Replies: 502
Views: 62098

Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

Last thursday was a religious national holiday (Ascension of Christ) that many people used to "bridge" including the weekend. Some perfect quiet time to finally get this deal done. That makes sense. I looked up German holidays before asking the question and saw it, but thought it was too ...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sun May 24, 2020 6:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package
Replies: 502
Views: 62098

Re: Lufthansa: 10B EUR bailout - Update

mxaxai wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Any update on the Airbus condition today?

Not expecting any decision or even public debate on a holiday weekend.


Which German holiday is going on this weekend?

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sun May 24, 2020 6:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions
Replies: 236
Views: 38906

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

WN isn't really an LCC because their *costs* are not really *low*. However, thanks to its different business model and operational style, here WN has more liquidity. Result? Possibly, WN can distribute its fleet over a bigger network... fully replacing, say, American Airlines' domestic network. Jus...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sun May 24, 2020 5:04 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions
Replies: 236
Views: 38906

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Does anyone think Southwest will put the squeeze on a weakened Delta in ATL? If the last five years have been any indication, ATL isn't a big priority for them. It would make more sense for them to focus on areas they've already been focusing on: DEN, DAL, Southern California, Hawaii whenever the l...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sat May 23, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions
Replies: 236
Views: 38906

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Playing devil's advocate, how applicable is the "Southwest Effect" over the next few months? I get that passenger numbers are on their way up, but how much latent traffic is there to actually be stimulated? I can only talk about one route that I fly a lot: Dallas / Chicago Looking at July...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sat May 23, 2020 3:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions
Replies: 236
Views: 38906

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Playing devil's advocate, how applicable is the "Southwest Effect" over the next few months? I get that passenger numbers are on their way up, but how much latent traffic is there to actually be stimulated?

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by ShinyAndChrome
Tue May 19, 2020 4:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines And Qatar Airways Sign Codeshare Partnership + AA Exploring DOH Flights
Replies: 133
Views: 18882

Re: American Airlines And Qatar Airways Sign Codeshare Partnership + AA Exploring DOH Flights

It's not as though Qatar (the airline or the country) has gotten out of this unscathed. I doubt there's much appetite for big ticket purchases anywhere in the Gulf right now. Qatar is actually in a unique situation. Its energy export is more in natural gas than oil. So it is relatively less scathed...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Tue May 19, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines And Qatar Airways Sign Codeshare Partnership + AA Exploring DOH Flights
Replies: 133
Views: 18882

Re: American Airlines And Qatar Airways Sign Codeshare Partnership + AA Exploring DOH Flights

Heck, I imagine a US carrier can be purchased with change found in a Qatari sofa cushion at this point. I wish them all well, however they choose to proceed It's not as though Qatar (the airline or the country) has gotten out of this unscathed. I doubt there's much appetite for big ticket purchases...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sat May 16, 2020 3:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20
Replies: 60
Views: 11539

Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

I highly doubt they were given less than a months notice. I believe it’s closer to a furlough with rights to come back according to seniority. Just going off the article. Maybe there was internal communication earlier on to that effect but I'd be surprised if it was communicated to workers beforeha...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sat May 16, 2020 3:04 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20
Replies: 60
Views: 11539

Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Cripes almighty I feel for these AC workers. I can't imagine how chaotic it would be, laying off half your workforce with less than a month's notice. There may be some differences in terminology between Canada and the US but when the article says layoff, is it a full severance or something closer l...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sat May 16, 2020 1:43 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20
Replies: 60
Views: 11539

Re: Air Canada to layoff 20K workers effective 7 June '20

Cripes almighty I feel for these AC workers. I can't imagine how chaotic it would be, laying off half your workforce with less than a month's notice. There may be some differences in terminology between Canada and the US but when the article says layoff, is it a full severance or something closer li...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu May 14, 2020 10:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall
Replies: 176
Views: 23752

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

AA has already published a September vacancy/displacement. E190-75/76-a330 pilots all being displaced. New positions CLT 737/777 and MIA 787. Whoa!! That appears to deserve its own thread? AA E190, 757, 767, A330 all being retired semi-permanently? Is that correct? It's believable, so I am asking. ...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu May 14, 2020 10:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall
Replies: 176
Views: 23752

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Two famous quotes from Robert Crandell, former President and Chairman of American Airlines. I've never invested in any airline. I'm an airline manager. I don't invest in airlines. And I always said to the employees of American, 'This is not an appropriate investment. It's a great place to work and ...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu May 14, 2020 8:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Korean Air Chairman: business conditions poor, looking to divest assets, form more JVs
Replies: 69
Views: 16315

Re: Korean Air Chairman: business conditions poor, looking to divest assets, form more JVs

Is it possible that how Korea dealt with Covid-19 could mean KE will be in a favorable position once traveling becomes normalized again? For what it's worth, with places like Australia/NZ talking about "travel bubbles" between themselves, South Korea could be in a decent place to establis...

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