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by evanb
Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:33 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: New York Court investigating Etihad debt agreements
Replies: 12
Views: 3324

Re: New York Court investigating Etihad debt agreements

As a point of order -- is any of the entities, named in Reuters article (except Fitch rating agency) actually domiciled in the US, to be subject to US court jurisdiction? The bonds were marketed to US investors in the US. The moment you market financial securities in a country you come under their ...

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by evanb
Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff
Replies: 218
Views: 44075

Re: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff

The old SAA (ie until a few weeks ago) was a bit hit or miss. One of my last flights (in early March) was JNB-LHR in Business. The seating excellent but, again, the onboard service pretty poor. But, to and from JNB (I live in WDH) the regional product in Business is excellent. (Though I wish the A3...

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by evanb
Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff
Replies: 218
Views: 44075

Re: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff

I'm not sure that 23 aircraft for 27 destinations (some of which are long haul) is going to work, unless frequency goes down to maybe 2 or 3 per week. Fine for a purely leisure LCC, but maybe not great when business travellers cover a significant part of the customer base, or when you try to provid...

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by evanb
Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff
Replies: 218
Views: 44075

Re: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff

Williamsb747 wrote:
IAD, JFK, FRA, LHR and PER internationally. CPT, DUR and PLZ domestically.


And ACC, BLZ, DAR, EBB, GBE, HRE, FIH, LOS, LBV, LLW, LVI, LAD, LUN, MPM, MRU, NBO, NLA, VFA and WDH regionally.

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by evanb
Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff
Replies: 218
Views: 44075

Re: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff

I think they are doing the best they can do for now while dealing the corruptible interference: - Reduce long haul to the bare minimum: LHR, FRA, NYC (I would venture for GRU/HKG, I don't think it's needed, maybe SIN) - Keep minimum of african routes under SAA brand (longer than 3hrs): ACC, ADD, CA...

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by evanb
Thu May 21, 2020 11:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60290

Re: SAA Leasing A350

Thank you very much evanb. Do you expect this to change when summer comes around and by how much? JNB is southern hemisphere, so summer months run from October through March (on IATA winter) so they already operated it through summer. The flight has a relatively late departure (scheduled 9:10pm) ex...

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by evanb
Thu May 21, 2020 11:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60290

Re: SAA Leasing A350

AECM wrote:
So payloads were 35 ton up? Full passenger plus some cargo?


Yeah, they were able to carry a nice payload. Not sure they did though. They brought it on the route when they were already suffering from very poor publicity and issues with travel insurance.

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by evanb
Thu May 21, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60290

Re: SAA Leasing A350

While the A359 was on the JNB-JFK routes does anyone have and can share some info about payload and fuel burns? Lifts 270t to 275t (depending on temperature) on the JNB-JFK sector carrying roughly 90t of fuel. 90t of fuel is for the trip or also including reserves? Yes. Carrying 90t, not burning.

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by evanb
Thu May 21, 2020 10:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60290

Re: SAA Leasing A350

AECM wrote:
While the A359 was on the JNB-JFK routes does anyone have and can share some info about payload and fuel burns?


Lifts 270t to 275t (depending on temperature) on the JNB-JFK sector carrying roughly 90t of fuel.

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by evanb
Wed May 20, 2020 4:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff
Replies: 218
Views: 44075

Re: SAA to be liquidated!

You have summed it up completely, what a sad state of affairs. The question is will the government let it die? By dying, so will all the 'commissions' and many jobs for union/ANC voters. That is why we keep hearing about the 'new' company. In a normal situation post-Covid-19, a new airline couldn't...

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by evanb
Wed May 20, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff
Replies: 218
Views: 44075

Re: SAA to be liquidated!

Can you provide more details about the exact sort of government corruption that helped doom SAA? Was it interference in business planning, such as forcing them to fly certain unprofitable routes? Or overstuffing the company with do-nothing patronage jobs for key ANC vote-hustlers? Or outright theft...

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by evanb
Tue May 05, 2020 6:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff
Replies: 218
Views: 44075

Re: SAA to be liquidated!

How was the service of SAA in apartheid compared to Andrews tenure and after his departure? I've heard people complain and say it was betterin apartheid but I find it good(I am not one to complain). Another thing,would you say that SAA should completely leave the domestic market and let Mango take ...

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by evanb
Sun May 03, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff
Replies: 218
Views: 44075

Re: SAA to be liquidated!

So SAA's failure/demise was systematic? When would you say the decline started exactly? I've heard people say that SAA's problems started when Coleman Andrews started working at SA and sold SAA's aircraft and leased them back from a company he had close ties to. I think it's complicated. Andrews dr...

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by evanb
Sat May 02, 2020 8:05 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff
Replies: 218
Views: 44075

Re: SAA to be liquidated!

Anyways, what I think we will end up seeing is an outside airline brought in under contract to set up a "new" SA, in much the same way as UL did, in fact, EK would probably be the go to IMHO, in normal times EK was flying 2x380, 1 x 777 into JNB, that's a lot of pax taken from SA. While S...

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by evanb
Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What are IAG’s plans for Aer Lingus?
Replies: 12
Views: 3275

Re: What are IAG’s plans for Aer Lingus?

I don't expect that Aer Lingus will be taking over any of IAG's TATL connecting business. I suspect they will add to it though.

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by evanb
Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:34 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air Mauritius enters administration
Replies: 21
Views: 7673

Re: Air Mauritius enters administration

There would be some more A339 as well as A359 available on second-hand market. Truly a nightmare for Airbus. They also sub-lease two A359s to South African. They could be coming back. As long as SA keep operating (in itself unlikely) the sub-lease will just be automatically assigned to the underlyi...

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by evanb
Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff
Replies: 218
Views: 44075

Re: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff

aemoreira1981 wrote:
What about from CPT instead?


Because the regional O&D market to/from South Africa is heavily dominated by JNB (probably more than 80 or 90%).

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by evanb
Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:15 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff
Replies: 218
Views: 44075

Re: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff

Looking through what ET was doing out of ADD, range wise, it has been able to make destinations like DME and OUA work using the MAX8. Likely at a loss. But how can that be explained? JNB LOS 2,803 mi JNB ACC 2,897 mi JNB ABJ 3,051 mi ADD DME 3,200 mi ADD OUA 2,748 mi ADD JNB 2,516 mi As far as I'm ...

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by evanb
Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff
Replies: 218
Views: 44075

Re: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff

FlySafair (which only flies domestic routes in South Africa) was delayed in starting scheduled service (it did so with the B738s coming off lease from South African Airways, which were owned by Safair's parent ASL Aviation Group) because it had to restructure its ownership. Safair's first flight to...

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by evanb
Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:34 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff
Replies: 218
Views: 44075

Re: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff

Ethiopian is one of the rare African carriers that does long-haul that is usually profitable. If Africa ever had an open skies agreement, Ethiopian would be effectively a pan-African carrier. You're missing the key ingredients to ET's success, dramatically low wages compared to the carriers it comp...

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by evanb
Sat Apr 18, 2020 8:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South African Airways lands in Miami after 20+ years
Replies: 28
Views: 8833

Re: South African Airways lands in Miami after 20+ years

Miami wrote:
Stopped after 9/11.. Not failed.


Not quite. SAA exited MIA in 1999 when it switched to ATL. MIA didn't fail for them but they switched their US partner from AA to DL in 1999.

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by evanb
Sat Apr 18, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff
Replies: 218
Views: 44075

Re: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff

Thibault973 wrote:
I have never flown SAA but have Mango and I can say that it was probably the worst service I witnessed in a longggg time (only worse airline I might think of being Surinam Airways).


Having flown Mango many times, I'd take them over any European, Asian or N American LCC.

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by evanb
Sat Apr 18, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff
Replies: 218
Views: 44075

Re: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff

When the lockdown ends in South Africa, I see a good opportunity for Comair to pick up some cheap B738s (from the Mango side) and expand its short-haul operation into central Africa, up to Nigeria or the west African coast (from CPT, primarily destinations like LOS, ACC, and ABJ; JNB is too high to...

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by evanb
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:20 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South African Airways lands in Miami after 20+ years
Replies: 28
Views: 8833

Re: South African Airways lands in Miami after 20+ years

I am surprised the A359 can't do JNB-MIA non-stop. It can do it non-stop (they fly JNB-JFK-JNB non-stop with the A350s). It's just a lot more expensive to do it non-stop and without a high yield revenue it's not necessary. Also, the return leg is operating MIA-DDS-JNB, so the outbound gave the chan...

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by evanb
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia flights to JNB in 2010?
Replies: 3
Views: 727

Re: Virgin Australia flights to JNB in 2010?

Yes, they had some ETOPS issues which increased the flight time. With JNB's hot and high issues, the diversion was also eating into the B77W payload.

Add to that, at the time SAA and Qantas had a bilateral codeshare between JNB-PER and SYD-JNB which didn't leave much of a market.

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by evanb
Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:20 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: TAP launches PDL-YYZ, AGA, CPT, and CUN
Replies: 45
Views: 9928

Re: TAP launches PDL-YYZ, AGA, CPT, and CUN

I think there is often a misnomer about CPT being low yield simply because it's a tourist destination while JNB is high yield because it's a business destination. I would agree that JNB is higher yielding than CPT, and probably because of business links, but it doesn't mean CPT is low yielding. A st...

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by evanb
Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA 2224 - CPT-GRU
Replies: 3
Views: 1415

Re: SAA 2224 - CPT-GRU

It's real. Repatriation flight chartered by the Brazilian government.

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by evanb
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southern African & Indian Ocean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 115
Views: 11506

Re: Southern African & Indian Ocean Aviation Thread - 2020

If demand for flights picks up after the corona is all over. I would venture that SAA would at the very least return to LHR,JFK,PER and FRA I think it's impossible to predict how and when we come out of it and what it looks like in other countries, but yes, you're right out these routes. I think an...

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by evanb
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta 201 Diversion....
Replies: 5
Views: 3281

Re: Delta 201 Diversion....

crownvic wrote:
Does anyone know why Delta 201 JNB to ATL diverted to Orlando MCO this am? 777 sat here for about an hour and half and continued on to the short hop to ATL..


It took a particularly heavy load out of JNB last night and left fuel behind to carry the load.

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by evanb
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:20 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southern African & Indian Ocean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 115
Views: 11506

Re: Southern African & Indian Ocean Aviation Thread - 2020

SAA’s Covid19 route cuts. Frankfurt completely gone. Other international destinations cut quite a bit as well. https://www.flysaa.com/documents/51855150/658748322/Flight+Cancellations+due+to+COVID19/dc341fce-ddf1-4655-903c-9bbe0349c9f5 Just a point of clarification. This schedule is only until the ...

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by evanb
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: East African Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 80
Views: 7426

Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2020

I'm of the feeling that the Ethiopian govt will only sell a stake in ET as a last resort. They are currently planning to privatise banking and telecoms I agree. It's a strategic asset fort Ethiopia. But also, it would require them to open their books to a significant due diligence look and I'm not ...

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by evanb
Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: West and Central African Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 138
Views: 12704

Re: West and Central African Aviation Thread - 2020

AWA are mostly set up as a point-to-point operator. There would either need to be much higher frequency operations (rather than larger aircraft) or to focus on a banked up type model to really make themselves work in providing long haul connections more efficiently and consistently. However, there ...

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by evanb
Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: West and Central African Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 138
Views: 12704

Re: West and Central African Aviation Thread - 2020

Flying 7 hours to Europe, staying on the ground for 3 hours and flying 8 hours to JFK is not efficient. The direct flight from Accra is 12 hours so even with the same amount of ground time connecting in ACC you would be in the air for a lot less time. Which also means fuel costs and emissions are l...

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by evanb
Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:40 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: West and Central African Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 138
Views: 12704

Re: West and Central African Aviation Thread - 2020

The trouble is that West Africans are still going to Europe/North Africa to get to North America. Why is this troubling? European hubs are more efficient and lower cost. That's how hubs work. Nothing makes the case for Africa World Airlines' growth more than this scenario. Each city cannot grow lon...

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by evanb
Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:28 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: East African Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 80
Views: 7426

Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2020

OK, but can South African G. let the airline go for good ? Who forced them to do so? No pride in keeping SAA afloat? Absolutely they can let it go. There is plenty of foreign capacity in/out of South Africa and a general and liberal open skies policy. There is already healthy competition in the dom...

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by evanb
Sun Mar 08, 2020 7:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: East African Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 80
Views: 7426

Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2020

eastafspot wrote:
What are the diffrence about KQ and SAA, now?


Functionally nothing, just that the South African government has chosen to or been forced to stop supporting the vanity project. They're both massively corrupt and mismanaged, running massive losses and requiring consistent bailouts to keep flying.

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by evanb
Sun Mar 08, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: West and Central African Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 138
Views: 12704

Re: West and Central African Aviation Thread - 2020

Wonder if DL will expand in Western Africa to counter AA entry and Royal Marco joining One World Alliance. AA already have substantial capacity into Africa through the JV with BA. Granted, West Africa isn't the strongest part of BA's network, but they do have ABV, ACC and LOS. CMN will complement t...

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by evanb
Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:09 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FlyBe LHR slots: who will buy them?
Replies: 15
Views: 5937

Re: FlyBe LHR slots: who will buy them?

If they were remedy slots they will be made available first to anyone who can take over the conditions. If nobody can only then will they either go back to BA or back into the slot pool.

I'm not sure that remedy slots are transferable until the original conditions have been met.

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by evanb
Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: East African Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 80
Views: 7426

Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2020

Is Kenya Airways going down the same path that South African went? I'd argue that they went down the SAA path a long time ago. The difference is that Kenya doesn't quite have the same institutional oversight to push back at it, and the broader fiscal situation has allowed the government to continue...

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by evanb
Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines
Replies: 173
Views: 32708

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

It depends, given LHR has an additional 3x weekly daytime flights those planes have a quick turnaround. Also some flights from ADD arrive late afternoon into LHR, so those planes have a shorter turnaround as well. I don't think they run this anymore. They've managed to reorganize to get 6 out of 7 ...

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by evanb
Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: "Open Skies" in a World of Slot-Controlled Airports
Replies: 49
Views: 5553

Re: "Open Skies" in a World of Slot-Controlled Airports

"Open Skies" sound great: Any airline can start any route between two countries, federation, or unions. For instance, between the US and Europe. In practice, this is obviously complete nonsense as several (many?) airports in e.g. Europe are slot-controlled, and have no spare slots availab...

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by evanb
Mon Feb 17, 2020 8:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 777X vs A350 CASM
Replies: 259
Views: 27789

Re: 777X vs A350 CASM

Anyone have any data on the cost per seat per mile(CASM) for the 777X and the A350? Searching the internet does not reveal much, and it does not seem to have been discussed on airliners.net since 2017!!? The 777X is heavier per seat, but has more efficient engines. Anyone know how this balances out...

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by evanb
Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Latam increasing JNB
Replies: 10
Views: 3189

Re: Latam increasing JNB

Interesting. IIRC they used to be a big player in the BOM-GRU market, but of course both are dropped/getting dropped now. Indeed, BOM, HKG and connections on SQ to SIN too. However, JNB-BOM yields were horrific (mostly due to strong competition from ET, KQ, EK, QR, EY and TK). As BOM and HKG were d...

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by evanb
Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Latam increasing JNB
Replies: 10
Views: 3189

Re: Latam increasing JNB

From what I remember, until recently GRU was not severely loss making for SA, but just around the breakeven point. Sad to see SA pull out of GRU completely. Several years ago, they even had a second daily frequency on some days of the week. About 10 to 15 years ago it was, but that was before LATAM...

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by evanb
Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Latam increasing JNB
Replies: 10
Views: 3189

Re: Latam increasing JNB

This is most likely due to SAA cutting GRU completely. Although I would have thought LA would add more than daily flights as this route was previously flown 12 weekly between the two carriers. Why would they want to replace all the capacity rather than use their now monopoly power of non-stop servi...

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by evanb
Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:15 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s
Replies: 125
Views: 30592

Re: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s

LAXintl wrote:
Likely due to lack of interest, the tender bid deadline has been extended by a month till 28 February. (was 30 January)


Not a lack of interest. Some respondents asked for additional time to inspect aircraft and records. Inspections took place on site last week.

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by evanb
Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s
Replies: 125
Views: 30592

Re: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s

Actually maybe... Two A340s to replace those 40 year old B747sp. I wouldn’t want that to happen because that would mean those queens go straight to the scrap yard. It’s possible for it to happen but I have my doubts. ACMI or private operators are likely going to look for frames with low hours and c...

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by evanb
Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s
Replies: 125
Views: 30592

Re: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s

Ethiopian aren’t paying anything back. They owe zero dividends back to government. That’s their subsidy. And don’t forget the state policies which help keep labour costs extremely low. SAA will not fail. But extreme changes are in the horizon and it is a very uncomfortable time for all involved. I ...

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by evanb
Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s
Replies: 125
Views: 30592

Re: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s

I want to have sympathy, but how can Ethiopia who in the same 41 years as your wife managed to run their airline through revolutions and famine? Comparing Ethiopia to South Africa is a distraction. Ethiopia is an authoritarian state which enable massive implicit subsidies to the airline with stagge...

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by evanb
Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s
Replies: 125
Views: 30592

Re: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s

Wow I would have thought DC was profitable for them especially with the Accra stop.. Star Hub plus there's a large Ghanaian DC population that loved the direct flight. And it certainly still is. They're cutting 2 flights during the whole month to manage capacity. Doesn't mean it isn't making money....

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