Search found 207 matches

by DoctorVenkman
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest grounds 130 Boeing jets due to "weight data discrepancies"
Replies: 51
Views: 9141

Re: Southwest grounds 130 Boeing jets due to "weight data discrepancies"

A single obese passenger walking to the rear lavatories would have more of an impact on the flight characteristics than this. How is it worth grounding all these aircraft over 75lbs?

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 713
Views: 78168

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Not bookings, but a really good visual of where demand is (or at least consumer interest is). 0.16 = +16%: https://i.imgur.com/OKJJinj.png https://www.sojern.com/covid-19-insights-us#report That visual is pretty bad for two reasons: 1) No clear delineation between positive and negative (which shade...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020
Replies: 2940
Views: 530872

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

I can’t believe how little coverage this is getting on an aviation website. 16,000 plus employees gone in one month is a big deal. You guys are talking about Customer Service? Very sad These layoffs were announced months ago, everyone knew this was coming. In fact, the number is actually better tha...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020
Replies: 2940
Views: 530872

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

I can’t believe how little coverage this is getting on an aviation website. 16,000 plus employees gone in one month is a big deal. You guys are talking about Customer Service? Very sad These layoffs were announced months ago, everyone knew this was coming. In fact, the number is actually better tha...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 713
Views: 78168

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

There's also no reason to travel if everything is going to be closed when you get there. For example, why would I go to Vegas if all the bars, restaurants, and shows are closed? It has none of the energy and debauchery that one normally associates with Vegas. If I'm just going to sit in a seat and p...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 713
Views: 78168

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

"Although domestic leisure bookings have improved to about half their year-ago levels (-51.2%), corporate bookings remain down nearly 90% (-~88%), according to Bank of America." https://www.kten.com/story/42573711/the-airline-industry-could-shrink-by-half-to-survive-united-airlines-chairm...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Mon Aug 31, 2020 2:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 713
Views: 78168

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

It's really not surprising the numbers are going down. The vast majority of travel right now is leisure, summer is basically over, and most kids will be back in school by next week. The bump in the numbers in early August could end up being just a temporary blip as people tried to get some last-minu...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Mon Aug 31, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UNITED: investments stopped and continuing
Replies: 14
Views: 6209

Re: UNITED: investments stopped and continuing

The US3 are burning somewhere on the order of $20M-$30M in cash per day. This construction project is probably somewhere in the range of $50M-$100M over the course of a couple years. It's insignificant compared to their other expenses like fuel and payroll.

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Sun Aug 30, 2020 11:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 713
Views: 78168

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

UA is heavily reliant on demand from NYC, ORD, WAS, & SF, places where demand hasn't grown significantly. Consumer sentiment in these areas is markedly different than the middle of the country, the south, & PNW. Airlines with large presences in the PNW, Mountain West, Florida, e.t.c are see...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 713
Views: 78168

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

I'll eat my hat if corporate travel volume gets above 25% before 2021. It's not going to happen for many of the reasons outlined before - Fortune 500 travel bans, no trade conventions, empty offices, etc. Just because you saw a few business travelers on your flight doesn't mean it's coming back in a...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 713
Views: 78168

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

TSA numbers are down for all 3 days of the weekend vs last weekend. Not a great sign. Last weekend was back to school weekend for a lot of people, not a huge surprise... Yeah. It seems like most of the recent uptick has been vacation travel rather than work related. In that case, since summer is en...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 713
Views: 78168

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Trends look "okay" lately, with the bookings and TSA data (last Sunday at 862,949 was the post-Covid highest day), but at which point do you think that airlines will be able out of the woods? By that I mean, for airlines to be able to function without "life support", even with t...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FedEx 767 makes emergency landing at LAX
Replies: 132
Views: 25428

Re: FedEx plane makes emergency landing at LAX

FlyingViking wrote:
Sounds like the gear didn't deploy.


Now I'm no expert, but the video of the plane skidding down the runway on its engine seems to confirm that.

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 713
Views: 78168

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Just echoing here what others are posting. I work for a company in the Fortune 100 list that had a nine-figure annual travel budget, with a good chunk of that being for internal travel between our global offices. It was just announced that all offices will remain closed until next year at the earlie...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Thu Jul 23, 2020 2:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA 2020 Q2 results
Replies: 56
Views: 11527

Re: AA Q2 results

I think looking at the June cash burns to project forward is a bit disingenuous since that was by far the best post-covid month. The situation in Q3 is significantly worse than in June. A better metric to compare across airlines is the guided Q3 burn rate. AA still appears to be significantly higher...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA 2020 Q2 results
Replies: 56
Views: 11527

Re: AA Q2 results

Brickell305 wrote:
Their average cash burn for Q2 seems high IMO @ $55M. IIRC, it was $40M for DL and $30M for UA.


UA will be down to $25M/day once they get through their voluntary separation program. A cash burn of $55M/day is egregious. How much of that is debt servicing vs.operations?

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city
Replies: 329
Views: 35542

Re: JetBlue makes LAX West Coast focus city

Why keep token flights out of BUR and ONT but not LGB? BUR serves as the Valley's primary gateway, and areas as far north as Santa Clarita. Also domestic pax coming from the likes of Camarillo, Calabasas, Woodland Hills, Tarzana, Encino, etc can shave a good 30min+ off their already traffic-laden d...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Airlines sends WARN ACT Layoff Notices to 36,000
Replies: 13
Views: 3215

Re: United Airlines sends WARN ACT Layoff Notices to 36,000

You can’t lay-off an employee you didn’t warn but you can warn an employee you don’t lay off. As I expected major airlines appear to be trying to keep as many pilots as possible. That is true, but I don't believe these are grossly inflated numbers just to scare people (employees into taking leave, ...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 1724
Views: 237120

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

I wonder if UA will take the opportunity to expand their international presence at LAX now that AA is pulling out. Routes like LAX-HKG and LAX-PEK seem like obvious picks where they could be the only US carrier flying there. If they launched those they would be far and away the biggest international...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK
Replies: 275
Views: 34205

Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

UA isn't going to like Mint on EWR-LAX/SFO, plus all the new EWR flying. Going right at DL as well with JFK-DTW/MSP Interesting to watch.... I (used to) fly LAX-EWR a lot and I don't think I'd switch to Mint over UA's widebody flights with polaris seats. UA has a very competitive product on those r...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: LATAM shuts down LATAM Argentina
Replies: 54
Views: 8946

Re: LATAM shuts down LATAM Argentina

LATAM Argentina was hardly hit by the local market deregulation that began in 2016 - they lost market share and accrued their biggest losses since then. In the present circumstances, HQ can no longer cover those losses and without any forthcoming support from the government, the outcome could hardl...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: First electrical airplane in the world certified !
Replies: 53
Views: 7081

Re: First electrical airplane in the world certified !

About a 120 feet... Not bad considering the first internal combustion engine airplane flew about 120 feet. I don't know why they can't integrate solar panels on the surface of the wing and allow it to charge inflight during daytime? Even assuming perfect panel alignment, 100% sunshine, no extra dra...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: First electrical airplane in the world certified !
Replies: 53
Views: 7081

Re: First electrical airplane in the world certified !

Until someone develops a battery with comparable energy density to jet fuel commercial electric planes are going nowhere. And even equal energy density will not do the trick; conventionally fueled aircraft get lighter as they burn fuel, but electric ones do not. On top of that electric planes are o...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: First electrical airplane in the world certified !
Replies: 53
Views: 7081

Re: First electrical airplane in the world certified !

My main concern is true battery life. Anyone who has any kind of battery powered electronic device can tell you that sometimes 20% battery left doesn't quite always mean that. Certainly, this battery is more advanced than my iPhone, but my phone has died at 20% before. Lithium ion battery tech has ...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: First electrical airplane in the world certified !
Replies: 53
Views: 7081

Re: First electrical airplane in the world certified !

Nothing in the article mentions flight time, range and/or speed. How long can this bird fly?

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United announces Voluntary Separation Program
Replies: 55
Views: 14206

Re: United announces Voluntary Separation Program

If you take this deal you better be ready to go into a different industry. It's not like there's anyone hiring out there. That's not necessarily true. I work for a consulting firm and all our manufacturing clients are still going strong. Construction is especially still active. I'm on brief Medical...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Fri May 29, 2020 4:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United announces Voluntary Separation Program
Replies: 55
Views: 14206

Re: United announces Voluntary Separation Program

If you take this deal you better be ready to go into a different industry. It's not like there's anyone hiring out there.

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Tue May 19, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Denver airport seeks to accelerate concourse projects by up to $560 million
Replies: 21
Views: 3300

Re: Denver airport seeks to accelerate concourse projects by up to $560 million

A city builds wealth off transportation. In my opinion it is time to employ people and stop the payments for no work. During the great depression, my grandfather grabbed a shovel and went out to build roads. For Kaiser in fact. An amazing thing about road work, people scramble to get any other empl...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Mon May 18, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Future of Star(*) Alliance?
Replies: 18
Views: 3051

Re: Future of Star(*) Alliance?

All the alliances are relics anyways, becoming less important as airlines go for more and more JV’s instead. Covid-19 is not going to change that, in fact it will probably accelerate JV formations. The alliances are very useful when traveling internationally from a tier-2 city since they open up so...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Long-er haul narrowbody crewing economics.
Replies: 13
Views: 2668

Re: Long-er haul narrowbody crewing economics.

IMHO, any requirement for augmented crew is going to kill it. That's the cost of a 3rd pilot spread over ~160 seats vs. ~250 seats of a 787-8 (or larger). I don't think so. Let's be generous and assume an A321 captain's salary of $300k. Let's also be generous and assume only 500 flight hours per ye...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again
Replies: 310
Views: 64293

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

How do loans against secured assets work in bankruptcy? Because most of what is owed by AA is for aircraft purchases (presumably secured against said asset) so I was curious how that is handled. Assuming you are talking about chapter 7 BK (i.e. liquidation) instead of chapter 11 (i.e. reorganizatio...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again
Replies: 310
Views: 64293

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

[url][/url] How do loans against secured assets work in bankruptcy? Because most of what is owed by AA is for aircraft purchases (presumably secured against said asset) so I was curious how that is handled. Assuming you are talking about chapter 7 BK (i.e. liquidation) instead of chapter 11 (i.e. re...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Time for UA to step up?
Replies: 241
Views: 29950

Re: Time for UA to step up?

I'm wondering if the people complaining about EWR Terminal C have been there in the last 5 years? It's been massively updated and is generally quite nice. Yes, there are some inconveniences as the renovations are finishing up, but overall I think it's one of the best terminals in any major US airpor...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Time for UA to step up?
Replies: 241
Views: 29950

Re: Time for UA to step up?

Please tell me how they are “weak” outside of their hubs.... I would like to see some examples here. Granted about they only place they don’t compete well is east coast/Midwest to Florida and Caribbean to the extent that DL and AA do. DL would love to have SFO and DEN over Sea and SLC on the flip s...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Time for UA to step up?
Replies: 241
Views: 29950

Re: Time for UA to step up?

I agree with the posters saying they could beef up their LAX presence. They don't even fly to SJC from LAX which seems crazy to me. I understand they have their hub nearby in SFO, but LAX-SJC is an extremely popular business route with cash-rich companies on either end. Other big holes off the top o...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Kobe Bryant killed in a helicopter crash
Replies: 778
Views: 115357

Re: Kobe Bryant killed in a helicopter crash

If they were going to Thousand Oaks, why did they fly all the way up to Porter Ranch / Granada Hills and then turn south? Seems like an odd routing.

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777-9 first flight 25 January 2020
Replies: 970
Views: 80727

Re: Boeing 777-9 first flight 25 January 2020

What could possibly be the catastrophic failure caused by the wingtips folding up in flight? Would they cause a loss of control by somehow disrupting the airflow? I can't imagine there's enough lift generated by the wingtips for that to be the issue.

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A DL 772, Flying LAX-PVG, Makes Emergency Landing And Dumps Fuel On School
Replies: 565
Views: 56842

Re: A DL 772, Flying LAX-PVG, Makes Emergency Landing And Dumps Fuel On School

Being a 777, the captain and FO were probably very experienced, making this all the more strange if it was a mistake. This forum often assumes that an experienced flight crew cannot make mistakes, but at the end of the day even very-experienced flight crews are human. Mistakes happen. At this stage...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:32 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A DL 772, Flying LAX-PVG, Makes Emergency Landing And Dumps Fuel On School
Replies: 565
Views: 56842

Re: A DL 772, Flying LAX-PVG, Makes Emergency Landing And Dumps Fuel On School

I doubt the vapors touched unprotected skin are of any measurable quantity, assuming kids were playing outside in a short and t-shirt. The fumes might have scared them. The kids were soaked per news reports. People on the ground said "it was raining fuel". This is not just people smelling...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:25 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A DL 772, Flying LAX-PVG, Makes Emergency Landing And Dumps Fuel On School
Replies: 565
Views: 56842

Re: A DL 772, Flying LAX-PVG, Makes Emergency Landing And Dumps Fuel On School

I doubt the vapors touched unprotected skin are of any measurable quantity, assuming kids were playing outside in a short and t-shirt. The fumes might have scared them. The kids were soaked per news reports. People on the ground said "it was raining fuel". This is not just people smelling...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A DL 772, Flying LAX-PVG, Makes Emergency Landing And Dumps Fuel On School
Replies: 565
Views: 56842

Re: A DL 772, Flying LAX-PVG, Makes Emergency Landing And Dumps Fuel On School

The other day I spilled fuel on my hands, I was not happy as it smelled for a while. I did not call for a press conference or go to hospital. Good grief. Spilling some fuel on your hands and being soaked from gallons falling out of the sky are slightly different situations. But good for you for not...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A DL 772, Flying LAX-PVG, Makes Emergency Landing And Dumps Fuel On School
Replies: 565
Views: 56842

Re: A DL 772, Flying LAX-PVG, Makes Emergency Landing And Dumps Fuel On School

I really, really can't wait to see the reason that this couldn't have occurred over water, or the justification that dropping fuel over a heavily populated area was deemed a better choice than landing heavy. I'm seeing unverified reports on Twitter that it was a compressor stall. Not sure if that w...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A DL 772, Flying LAX-PVG, Makes Emergency Landing And Dumps Fuel On School
Replies: 565
Views: 56842

Re: A DL 772, Flying LAX-PVG, Makes Emergency Landing And Dumps Fuel On School

https://twitter.com/LACoFDPIO
-->

Thankfully, the LAFD is saying now that only minor injuries were sustained. Still, you're not having a great day if gallons of jet fuel get dumped on you from 2000 feet in the air.

Per twitter: https://twitter.com/LACoFDPIO

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A DL 772, Flying LAX-PVG, Makes Emergency Landing And Dumps Fuel On School
Replies: 565
Views: 56842

Re: A DL 772, Flying LAX-PVG, Makes Emergency Landing And Dumps Fuel On School

While definitely a sticky situation, you do what you gotta do when there is an emergency situation. I’m assuming they are not hospitalized for real injuries, just a precaution in case gasoline was ingested somehow? Sidenote: Must’ve been really darn low for the gasoline to not evaporate before hitt...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A DL 772, Flying LAX-PVG, Makes Emergency Landing And Dumps Fuel On School
Replies: 565
Views: 56842

A DL 772, Flying LAX-PVG, Makes Emergency Landing And Dumps Fuel On School

This is spreading around the local internet pretty quickly. Apparently a 772 flying from LAX-PVG declared emergency shortly after takeoff and had to dump fuel to make the landing. The approach was over a school and over 30 kids have been hospitalized as a result of the fuel dump: Flightaware Flight ...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DAL Q4 2019 earnings thread
Replies: 44
Views: 6437

Re: DAL Q4 2019 earnings thread

It always made me laugh that pundits and some industry executives thought China is "the key to profitability" or something like that. Delta makes its money the old fashioned way. Cities like CHS, JAX and RDU, IND, DSM, BHM, FAR, these are the cities that are essential to the large P&L...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DAL Q4 2019 earnings thread
Replies: 44
Views: 6437

Re: DAL Q4 2019 earnings thread

It always made me laugh that pundits and some industry executives thought China is "the key to profitability" or something like that. Delta makes its money the old fashioned way. Cities like CHS, JAX and RDU, IND, DSM, BHM, FAR, these are the cities that are essential to the large P&L...

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752
Replies: 2728
Views: 296517

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

What sort of mechanical failure could cause a midair explosion like that? The only thing I can think of is an uncontained engine failure piercing and igniting the fuel tanks. Is there any other known issue that could have caused this?

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Iran admits to accidentally shooting down Ukraine Flight 752
Replies: 2728
Views: 296517

Re: Reports of Ukrainian 737 Crash in Tehran,Iran

What are the odds of an uncontained engine failure? From what I can gather online it's about one in every million flight hours, does that seem right? If so the chances of a one-in-a-million event happening within hours of an armed escalation in the region seems astronomically low.

Jump to post
by DoctorVenkman
Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: why 2L boarding door on DL 75's?
Replies: 44
Views: 7595

Re: why 2L boarding door on DL 75's?

It's a much more pleasant boarding experience for F passengers. The cabin is much calmer and the flight attendants are able to easily hand out drinks. I'd much rather have that at the expense of an extra 30-60 seconds deboarding upon arrival.

Jump to post