Search found 12797 matches

by keesje
Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 372
Views: 38667

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

A twin aisle NMA is not a path to NSA, no matter how much you wish it to be so. Most definitely Boeing will do it no matter how much you don't wish it to be so. :roll: Any new 130-200 seat NB would have to be real lean, mean, quiet, flexible and cheap. CASM unbeatable under 3 hours. Hard to combine...

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by keesje
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 372
Views: 38667

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

I have heard from my source that they anticipated the A321XLR and are not worried about it. Cold day in hell before they would admit. We heard the same on the NEO, Boeing wasn't worried Airbus was just catching up on the NG. In reality they underestimated and were panicking / rushing the MAX. They ...

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by keesje
Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 372
Views: 38667

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

Euro 3-3 has mostly convertable 3-3 2-2 business class. So you can optimize the cabin per flight. LH used to have 3-3 to 2-3 convertables. But now mostly 3-3 to 2-2, moving armrest, inbetween table and more pitch.

Image

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by keesje
Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 372
Views: 38667

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

Guess which large 757, 767 operator, NMA promotor and recent A321 operator will jump on the XLR train next. http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=HNL,+HAM,+Lin,+RIO,+SCL,+Bud,+CMN,+EZE,+OSL,+OPO&R=3500nm%40ATL,4700nm%40ATL%0d%0a&MS=wls2&MC=OPO&MR=1800&MX=720x360&PM=* 3500NM & 4700NM...

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by keesje
Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 372
Views: 38667

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

SYD to SIN, HKG, BKK, KUL, SGN, FUK, KIX, TYO, all seem within easy reach for the XLR. More interestingly, perhaps, secondary destinations all over southeast Asia become within reach of MEL and SYD on a narrowbody airplane for the first time. Interesting times. Also defensively. E.g. Guangzhou, Chi...

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by keesje
Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3311
Views: 328431

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Look on how the Lionair crash was handled. - the media was succesfully put on a track (pilot, Lionair operational record, aircraft airworthy) - any disruptive conclusions moved out a year (let's not speculate, but wait for the final investigation report (late 2019) - Boeing got away with it, stock r...

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by keesje
Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 372
Views: 38667

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

I see an A322 based on the XLR, same MTOW, trading capacity for range. A 3700NM+ range would still be extremely usefull for a 250 seat (single class) aircraft. why would it sacrifice range when it has wings better suited for its size and more efficient engines? I think there will be both a regular ...

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by keesje
Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 237
Views: 38174

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

I think we see a fleet rationalization. EK needs the 777-9, but maybe not 100 anytime soon, the 777-8 seems a red herring now they commited to the A350 with its proven much leaner ULR capabilities. https://i2.wp.com/alphaaviator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/wzf7UExyDwWK6frB_Airbus_A350_900_Emirate...

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by keesje
Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:35 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Why doesn’t UA fly an Airbus Widebody?
Replies: 45
Views: 5338

Re: Why doesn’t UA fly an Airbus Widebody?

Yes the way to show you don't want an aircraft is to keep increasing the order. Started at 25 and now it stands at 45.. Not quite. They had 25 A359-1000 on order but decided to go with the 787-10 instead. Instead of simply deferring the 359-1000, they stuck an agreement with Airbus to change the or...

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by keesje
Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:54 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Why doesn’t UA fly an Airbus Widebody?
Replies: 45
Views: 5338

Re: Why doesn’t UA fly an Airbus Widebody?

I think replacing the 772ER by a 787s you end up giving payload in the growing Asian markets. And the 777X is is very nice but top heavy & unproven.

They'll probably order A223 and A321XLR regardless. Like AA, Jetblue, Delta, Frontier etc.

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by keesje
Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 372
Views: 38667

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

The biggest business threat to the NMA will be the next step after the 321XLR: the 322XLR. I think it's highly likely we'll see a ~240pax 5000+nm 321XLR derivative with optimised wings and new generation engines similar to the 797, around the same 2026/2027 timeframe. It will take the lower half of...

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by keesje
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:05 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Why doesn’t UA fly an Airbus Widebody?
Replies: 45
Views: 5338

Re: Why doesn’t UA fly an Airbus Widebody?

Continental honored the 1997 contract with Boeing not to buy Airbus for 20 years. United launched the 777 in the early nineties. Most will be replaced by A350s?

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by keesje
Sun Jun 23, 2019 7:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: China Southern eyes world domination and puts Oneworld plans aside
Replies: 25
Views: 6027

Re: China Southern eyes world domination and puts Oneworld plans aside

I think the World Domination" is dreamed by someone to feed latent developing China fobia.

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by keesje
Sun Jun 23, 2019 3:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 372
Views: 38667

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

I have seen nothing but hope and visions to make believe a twin aisle could come close to NB OEW / efficiency for the same seat capacity. No breakthroughs in sight IMO.

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by keesje
Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: 6 abreast A220 seating - Channel Airways style
Replies: 34
Views: 2833

Re: 6 abreast A220 seating - Channel Airways style

I looked at staggered 6 abreast a while ago, to make it a 150 seater, when the A220-300 was named still C130.

https://s191.photobucket.com/user/keesje_pics/media/CSeriesC130150seater.jpg.html?t=1217779572

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by keesje
Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:30 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Operational Weak Spots of the Airbus A321NEO/LR Discussion Thread
Replies: 83
Views: 32323

Re: Operational Weak Spots of the Airbus A321NEO/LR.

1) One problem I do see, that was not raised here is the MTOW of 97 tonnes with two wheel bogies, which will probably not allow this aircraft to have the short runway performance that the 757 had. I was wondering if Airbus would re-activate the 4 wheel bogie for this option as they had for the earl...

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by keesje
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:29 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A321LR Versus XLR
Replies: 83
Views: 11678

Re: A321LR Versus XLR

What could be really interesting is that low-cost airlines could increase their footprints and their networks might start to overlap. I did notice that Air Arabia is now flying to Kuala Lumpur with their first new A320LR (a 7.5 hour flight) and the XLR will increase this even more. This could be a ...

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by keesje
Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:47 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Sukhoi SU-57
Replies: 120
Views: 20415

Re: Sukhoi SU-57

The Su-57 looks a bit more elegant, maybe because it doesn't need the huge tail surfaces.

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by keesje
Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:55 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Operational Weak Spots of the Airbus A321NEO/LR Discussion Thread
Replies: 83
Views: 32323

Re: Operational Weak Spots of the Airbus A321NEO/LR Discussion Thread

Has any sketch / drawing / cutaway been published on the new A321XLR fuel tank configuration?

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by keesje
Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 372
Views: 38667

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

I see a 15-20t gap between same seat capacity A321-A322 version and the discussed NMA' configurations. And I have not seen anything that motivates me from lowering that gap. No materials, structures or space use step changes. SUV's are not for efficiency. https://07185918574543712684.googlegroups.co...

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by keesje
Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War
Replies: 233
Views: 24892

Re: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War

Airbus better address costs quickly.. They should be able to do it as they were able to get A330 costs down dramatically. But until then Boeing will continue to win the battle.. The 787 and A350 are very close performance wise so cost is going to be the deciding factor in most RFPs. Airbus sold 900...

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by keesje
Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 372
Views: 38667

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

I think People are still thinking the NMA is a lot bigger than it actually will be. I think it will be a 7W Ovalish (Half a big Circle on top of 1/3 of a bigger circle) cross section where the Nose/Cross Section is reused on NSA - something like an 160-165W" x 185-190"H Cross section. I r...

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by keesje
Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:01 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A321LR Versus XLR
Replies: 83
Views: 11678

Re: A321LR Versus XLR

It seems the XLR is, apart from more range, implementing improvements valuable for any A321. To make money on the capabilities, Airbus will probably create paper versions for different MTOW's again. A lower MTOW / engine requirements improves time on wing / MRO costs if you never fly them longer the...

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by keesje
Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Paris Air Show 2019: Boeing News and Orders Thread
Replies: 310
Views: 85600

Re: Paris Air Show 2019: Boeing News and Orders Thread

They may have got such a good price that they can just lease them out to airlines in Asia and Africa that need them for a decent margin. I think this is the strategy of indigo partners airlines, buy big and fill where needed, if not lease them out. Another debate is that why do IAG need to place th...

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by keesje
Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements
Replies: 361
Views: 65627

Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

The 321 was already outselling Boeing by far. They were in no need to rush things as they were making plenty of money. the a320 leads the nb market, but only by like 8%. why not hit boeing while they're down and further the lead? Are you referring to the A320neo family as a whole as I calculate rou...

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by keesje
Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements
Replies: 361
Views: 65627

Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

The list of airlines that could buy/convert to A321XLR keeps growing,
It could be more than 3-4. Mentioned are:
- Airasia
- Jetblue
- AA
- MEA
- United
- IAG
- Indigo
- Azul
- Air Malta
- LEVEL
- Lufthansa Group
- Icelandair
- Wizz Air
I remember A spread NEO's out over the week

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by keesje
Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?
Replies: 257
Views: 48366

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Everybody needs to remember that while Boeing really can't talk about its strategy until the MAX is back in the air, it doesn't have to stop executing on the strategy. We don't know what is happening with NMA. Everything that has been used as evidence in this thread, including the articles, is spec...

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by keesje
Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will Boeing Brasil let the E175-E2 just fall off the table?
Replies: 58
Views: 8327

Re: Will Boeing Brasil let the E175-E2 just fall off the table?

Most OE's publicly stand solidly behind their long term strategy moving forward, until the moment they changed it. I believe Boeing Brasil / Embraer can retain their healthy marketshare US domestic, but not with the E175-E2 Like MHI on the MRJ70 and Boeing with the 737-7, they probably need to adjus...

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by keesje
Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?
Replies: 257
Views: 48366

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Nothing new really. We have known about Boeing’s dilemma for over a decade now. We are still waiting for Boeing’s move. Everything changed. - 737 lost marketshare since MAX launch - 737-7 & 737-9 had to be upgraded to keep customers - Airbus bought A220 & started selling, working toward 14/...

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by keesje
Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:38 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?
Replies: 257
Views: 48366

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Pressure is building on Boeing to come with a credible NB strategy for the next 10-15 yrs, according to Bloomberg. The 737MAX will do just fine until 2030- and -the 5000 MAX backlog is solid- are disputed assumptions at this stage. The cat-and-mouse game over jets to be rolled out during the next de...

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by keesje
Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:29 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will Boeing Brasil let the E175-E2 just fall off the table?
Replies: 58
Views: 8327

Will Boeing Brasil let the E175-E2 just fall off the table?

It seems Boeing Brasil has some choices to make on their <100 regional portfolio / market strategy. :arrow: 40% of regional aircraft demand is in the America's :arrow: E175 has been succesfull with US regionals in recent years :arrow: E175-E2 doesn't meet scope clause MTOW for 76 passengers restrict...

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by keesje
Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:42 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Sarah Huckabee Sanders to resign; return to Arkansas for possible governor's run
Replies: 71
Views: 3047

Re: Sarah Huckabee Sanders to resign; return to Arkansa for possible governor's run

A person can only take so much humiliation from having to try to defend the indefensible. She tried her best and was a nasty as she had to be to try to defend trump but I think she may have had about enough of looking like a complete lying fool. It also could have been that after trumps horrific co...

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by keesje
Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?
Replies: 257
Views: 48366

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Aisle seats produce revenue if people pay a direct premium for them. People may indirectly pay for 2-2-2, just like they pay for free bags, by choosing a consistent preferred product versus a competitor. Also, there are indirect saved costs from turnaround times, customer relaxation, crew relaxatio...

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by keesje
Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1327
Views: 226325

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

2 years later, well that should hardly make a difference for QF :slaphappy:

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by keesje
Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3311
Views: 328431

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

We can try to divert, distract, generalize, ask for proof of a undetermined schedule, but the FAA boss said a return to service for the 737MAX by the end of 2019 sounded correct. So far Boeing has been quiet about that. If they expect / believe something else, they would have responded. And lets st...

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by keesje
Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3311
Views: 328431

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

While the FAA is “under a lot of pressure,” he said the Max will be returned to service “when we believe it will be safe,” following reviews of the design, flight testing and other checks. Bahrami was reluctant to provide a timeline, but asked whether the plane would resume service this year or nex...

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by keesje
Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3311
Views: 328431

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

China (CAAC) put another $30B on the table. The 737MAX and 777X are on the table. Maybe EK, FAA and UA can join for a few wines at the chalet next week. An opportunity for everyone to show how tough they are at this stage. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3013289/boeing-and-chinese-airlines-t...

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by keesje
Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3311
Views: 328431

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Has this been posted already? 7 hrs ago.. Boeing 737 Max to be flying again by December, FAA official says https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/boeing-737-max-be-flying-again-december-faa-official-says If that will be the case w'll see further production cuts. Unless you can build and store 400 a...

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by keesje
Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3311
Views: 328431

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

[ I think you need a lot of text & colour to explain the scandalous FAA / AA media differences between end year and December. :bigthumbsup: December is all over the place & Boeing keeps quiet. Did you even check? https://www.google.com/search?q=737MAX+boeing+FAA+december&rlz=1C1GCEA_enN...

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by keesje
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3311
Views: 328431

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

What part of "the aircraft will be ready by Aug 19", "a highly likely possibility (...) that we’d be able to provide that service by Sept. 3" and "that decision merely reflected monthly scheduling plans for crew" doesn't make sense? Maybe Parker will sign off release t...

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by keesje
Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3311
Views: 328431

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

His explanation for canceling fights till Sep 3 makes zero sense. What part of "the aircraft will be ready by Aug 19", "a highly likely possibility (...) that we’d be able to provide that service by Sept. 3" and "that decision merely reflected monthly scheduling plans for c...

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by keesje
Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements
Replies: 361
Views: 65627

Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

ILNFlyer wrote:
I predict there will be no 737 Max 8 orders. :crazy:


Indeed FAA is mentioning december now, a bad sign. Not good for the admosphere in the marketplace / Paris.

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by keesje
Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3311
Views: 328431

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Has this been posted already? 7 hrs ago.. Boeing 737 Max to be flying again by December, FAA official says https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/boeing-737-max-be-flying-again-december-faa-official-says If that will be the case w'll see further production cuts. Unless you can build and store 400 ai...

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by keesje
Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements
Replies: 361
Views: 65627

Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

I think for the Paris Airshow, at this stage, communication/ perception management is extremely important. Specially for an OE in the corner. I expect to see some news leaking friday / the week-end as part of an effort the grab headlines, avoid topics, deflect attention, move goal posts, pre-empt th...

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by keesje
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Operational Weak Spots of the Airbus A321NEO/LR Discussion Thread
Replies: 83
Views: 32323

Re: Operational Weak Spots of the Airbus A321NEO/LR Discussion Thread

The XLR will be a good test of Airbus’s ability to make incremental improvements without disrupting production, sales or commonality for operators. Wing improvements are one or several big unanswered questions. Just a MAX-style wingtip treatment? Or something more substantial? We haven’t really had...

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by keesje
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: Site Related
Topic: Throwing all subtopics on a big, chaotic heap with x00.000 views, 1000 posts . Centralizing..
Replies: 13
Views: 2022

Re: Throwing all subtopics on a big, chaotic heap with x00.000 views, 1000 posts . Centralizing..

I am sorry. When threads get to 5K and weeks old I lose interest in engaging or even reading. These monster threads are unbelievably complex. I vote to return to at least some subdivision threads. I can't believe the majority of the community likes these Godzillas. And lately, some of these monster...

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by keesje
Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:01 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Confirmed: 777X First Flight Delayed Due GE9X Issues
Replies: 191
Views: 33238

Re: Rumour: 777X First Flight Likely Delayed to Year End Due GE9X Issues

How can the CASM be on par with an A380, which has four relatively old (15 years) engines, vs two relatively modern dryers on the 777-9X. If it turns out to be similar then that is quite bad surely. CASM is a playing tool for marketing. You can use the published seatcount that helps your end coclus...

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by keesje
Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:44 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: RNZAF chooses C130Js to replace its C130Hs
Replies: 29
Views: 2204

Re: RNZAF chooses C130Js to replace its C130Hs

Maybe too early for the KC-390 to be a serious option.

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by keesje
Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements
Replies: 361
Views: 65627

Re: Paris Airshow 2019, Expectations, Gossip, Announcements

A BLOW FOR BOEING 797? AMERICAN CONSIDERS A321XLR Source American Airlines is considering to buy the A321XLS to replace its last 34 Boeing 757-200. If that happens it will be a blow for Boeing and its 797. The order might be announced at the Paris Airshow, or it might be too soon. This was discusse...

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by keesje
Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:25 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Longest flight where same aircraft turns around in the same calendar day?
Replies: 6
Views: 1986

Re: Longest flight where same aircraft turns around in the same calendar day?

I remember KL747s doing AMS-IAH-AMS in a day, the same aircraft 7 days a week.
Just enough time inbetween flights to off-load, check-fix, drain, clean, refuel, cater, load cargo, pax, crew.
Pretty efficient operation :)

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