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by JayinKitsap
Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War
Replies: 241
Views: 25847

Re: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War

From footage I've seen about the A350 fuselage panel construction, this looks like a really time-consuming labor and machining intensive proces. Thus really expansive. Here is an example: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6_R54EVDdf0 And another one that shows another eliminatable logistics step: Examp...

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by JayinKitsap
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: LH will look at A321XLR, but it's no game-changer: CEO
Replies: 109
Views: 12741

Re: LH will look at A321XLR, but it's no game-changer: CEO

I am sure that the A321 is going to dominate the NB market. Has to be.

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by JayinKitsap
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 376
Views: 39074

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

I predict if Boeing brings NMA in 2020 and start delivering 2026/27, Airbus will launch the A320 replacement in 2023 with delivery in 2030. Just that the new Airbus narrowbody will be 320/321/322 sized instead of 319/320/321. The lower end will be covered by 220-500. Thats why Boeing has such a har...

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by JayinKitsap
Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air France delays A380 cabin refit; future of fleet under study
Replies: 145
Views: 20628

Re: Air France delays A380 cabin refit; future of fleet under study

I'm comfortable in 10 abreast on the 777 and I have wider than average shoulders. So it is the default. The A380 should have been 11 across main deck and 9-across top. It's failure wasn't being too big, but not big enough. To those favoring the A380, look at how much space is lost to the two stairc...

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by JayinKitsap
Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:53 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War
Replies: 241
Views: 25847

Re: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War

One thing I am watching the NMA for is to see which new systems on the 787 and 777x follow on, will it have: 1. Bleedless engines / electric architecture as the 787 does, or revert to a full bleed air system. 2. Have CFRP barrels been a good choice or is sections better. For a number of engineering ...

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by JayinKitsap
Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:32 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 376
Views: 39074

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

There appears to be more than enough space between the NB and WB to fit in a NMA at rate 14. The A321 may do excellent at longer ranges that current, but the upper left of the pax / range chart is begging to be filled. If 2 NMA flights replace 3 738 flights that is 2 less pilots, 1 less set of land...

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by JayinKitsap
Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 376
Views: 39074

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

There appears to be more than enough space between the NB and WB to fit in a NMA at rate 14. The A321 may do excellent at longer ranges that current, but the upper left of the pax / range chart is begging to be filled. If 2 NMA flights replace 3 738 flights that is 2 less pilots, 1 less set of landi...

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by JayinKitsap
Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War
Replies: 241
Views: 25847

Re: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War

IMO, it’s just too easy to compare the B789 versus the A359 and ignore the differences. Calling it a red herring, state an opinion as a fact and don’t come with the numbers don’t change that. You can do better. Now we have to put the toys back into the tram, even though there's plenty of numbers in...

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by JayinKitsap
Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:21 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How much range is too much?
Replies: 30
Views: 4969

Re: How much range is too much?

I read recently (can't find the link) that with all other things equal for a specific flight, a plane designed for 2,000 miles less range saves 6% of the fuel cost, due to its lighter weight. The 77W - 77L comparison is excellent. The 77W hit the sweet spot, the 77L has more range at the expense of ...

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by JayinKitsap
Sun Jun 23, 2019 3:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War
Replies: 241
Views: 25847

Re: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War

Those analysis bring the data to make the right decision. They decide if 5,10,20, or 100 of a model make sense - ie what percent increased profit do the reviewed planes have compared to the alternates and how many is the right amount. A huge contender is the existing aircraft in the fleet, the purch...

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by JayinKitsap
Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:44 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: A400M Update Thread 2019
Replies: 165
Views: 22395

Re: A400M Update Thread 2019

You can register for the Financial Times and get a limited number of articles a month. So I read some half dozen a month. I read FT articles from time to time so I must have done that because I did not 'see' a paywall. I actually saw a different article first that was more fly by knight, Google hit...

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by JayinKitsap
Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:58 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War
Replies: 241
Views: 25847

Re: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War

This started as an article about Airbus reducing manufacturing costs, not Boeing accounting. Lets hold this to discussing to the cost of production, why that is important and what is being done by the manufacturers to improve costs. A good one to watch right now is the C Series (A220). I am sure Air...

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by JayinKitsap
Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:38 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement
Replies: 94
Views: 16281

Re: Qatar speeds up A380 retirement

IF someone can figure out how to make a mint running an airline based on used A380's he could become a millionaire, just takes $2B to start it. <snark off> There will be a clearing price for planes coming off lease, maybe TK expands with their new airport or a charter operator. Just no budget for re...

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by JayinKitsap
Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Paris AIr Show 2019: Other Manufacturers and Engine News and Orders Thread
Replies: 163
Views: 25864

Re: Paris AIr Show 2019: Other Manufacturers and Engine News and Orders Thread

Why would Delta have a clause like that in the contract? Because that’s what has been agreed with their pilots. V/F No I mean why would Delta's contact with SkyWest stop SkyWest from operating aircraft of a certain characteristics for airlines that aren't Delta? That's none of their business. It do...

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by JayinKitsap
Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 376
Views: 39074

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

... I don't see in my scenario NSA having all new gen engines - maybe a 1/4 to 1/2 generation over the LEAP or GTF. The performance delta may be less than that between the NG and the MAX (meaning the transition should be even easier) The four reasons for doing the NSA are strategic ones... 1. Boein...

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by JayinKitsap
Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air France delays A380 cabin refit; future of fleet under study
Replies: 145
Views: 20628

Re: Air France delays A380 cabin refit; future of fleet under study

This is a good example of the best data on a model's performance is by who is buying and the size of the backlog. Once an airline has a dozen in service they know quite well if they want more or really really want more and the models they wish they didn't have. The A380 had very few orders since 201...

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by JayinKitsap
Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air France delays A380 cabin refit; future of fleet under study
Replies: 145
Views: 20628

Re: Air France delays A380 cabin refit; future of fleet under study

It has been announced internally that Air France will hold off on cabin refit of A380 fleet as previously planned to commence in 2020. Last November, AF announced it would reduce A380 fleet from 10 to 5 frames starting W19/20 season while launching overdue cabin refit project on remaining frames st...

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by JayinKitsap
Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:46 am
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: KC-46 Production and Delivery Thread 2019
Replies: 213
Views: 35713

Re: KC-46 Production and Delivery Thread 2019

Boeing, get your act together :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :talktothehand: :talktothehand: :talktothehand: It really shouldn't be that hard. Have a couple 767 hangers, bring in the KC's that are the most complete, vacuum and clean every space one by one, also finishing out any punchlist items a...

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by JayinKitsap
Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United 757-200 hard landing at EWR
Replies: 158
Views: 34053

Re: What’s the emergency at EWR?

The 757 and 767 land just like all airplanes that I have flown. I have not flown the -300, so there maybe some unique stick and rudder skills required??? There was an article many years ago in the Boeing Airliner that talked to the derotation issue that can effect all airliners. I'll try to find it...

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by JayinKitsap
Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019
Replies: 465
Views: 126375

Re: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019

I wonder if that is a FAA-approved rubber band on the gold throttle lever? :biggrin: Maybe I will start a thread on grandfathering of rubber bands. :white: I think this is the same rubber band I saw being used during 737-200 flight testing in 1967. Special rubber with a paper trail to the exact tre...

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by JayinKitsap
Sat Jun 15, 2019 6:24 am
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: A400M Update Thread 2019
Replies: 165
Views: 22395

Re: A400M Update Thread 2019

https://www.ft.com/content/ed8682bc-8ea ... 2f641eca37
-->

There has been a new accord on the program, reducing the rate to 8 per year. Terms were not disclosed.

https://www.ft.com/content/ed8682bc-8ea ... 2f641eca37

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by JayinKitsap
Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?
Replies: 103
Views: 14838

Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

In the A330 / A350 / B787 competitions there may be engine preference occurring. Per 2018 data the 787 is 53% GE, 33% RR, and 14% undecided. The A330 and A350 are both RR 100%. So the airlines that prefer GE trend toward 787 and those that prefer going RR are favoring the A330/350 but are still buyi...

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by JayinKitsap
Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?
Replies: 103
Views: 14838

Re: FG: How are the all-new Airbus (A350) and Boeing (787) widebodies faring?

The deliveries chart looks odd at the year 9 for the 787. The line rate increased to 14 recently, which should be an uptick in deliveries, but the chart went flat.

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by JayinKitsap
Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will Boeing Brasil let the E175-E2 just fall off the table?
Replies: 58
Views: 8328

Re: Will Boeing Brasil let the E175-E2 just fall off the table?

Scope clauses are artificial, but it is a definition that is set in contracts. With the 3 US majors having similar clauses in their pilot contracts it really will not change. If just one, it might, but it would take substantial concessions in trade - with 3 it just isn't happening. It seems surprisi...

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by JayinKitsap
Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:08 am
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K
Replies: 138
Views: 45103

Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

A FG article on Boeing soon to be testing a CH-47 with the T-408's which the King Stallion has 3 of, the CH-47 just 2 but a horsepower increase of 2,500 HP over the current T55. Maybe it was decided that this should be added to the Block II https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/boeing-to-test-c...

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by JayinKitsap
Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Did the a380 plus get any orders, and if not, why?
Replies: 14
Views: 2059

Re: Did the a380 plus get any orders, and if not, why?

I believe that RR did not want to play along with doing a major PIP to the engines. - one issue the plus probably would have cost 1 to 2B to develop, say 1B expensed over 100 planes, an added $ 10M per plane. No airline wanted to sign the contracts - so it died. Airbus's press release of the plus ba...

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by JayinKitsap
Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:39 am
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: F-35 news thread
Replies: 1095
Views: 116420

Re: F-35 news thread

It seems to be the "beat on Airplane Manufacturer's Month", between these reports on the F-35 as well as Boeing's travails. Most reports have a snippet of information blown out of proportion. It seems that perfection is suddenly demanded, well no plane is perfect.

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by JayinKitsap
Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FedEx 757’s
Replies: 41
Views: 5568

Re: FedEx 757’s

767's make good sense.

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by JayinKitsap
Tue Jun 11, 2019 1:41 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Why can’t aircraft maximize fuselage space by using ceiling space?
Replies: 34
Views: 3532

Re: Why can’t aircraft maximize fuselage space by using ceiling space?

Fuel tanks could go up there.

What could possibly go wrong ?! ?! !! :cry2:

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by JayinKitsap
Tue Jun 11, 2019 1:20 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Tecnam P2012 vs Cessna Caravan vs Cessna Skycatcher vs Twin Otter
Replies: 77
Views: 7176

Re: Tecnam P2012 vs Cessna Caravan vs Cessna Skycatcher vs Twin Otter

I suspect that FedEX already went thru the choices and went with the SkyCourier which seems to be specifically designed for short distance freight - 3 LD3's is a lot of cube for 6,000 lb payload. Fixed wheels, few thrills, no bells or whistles. The engine PT6A-65SC is a variant that has been around ...

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by JayinKitsap
Sat Jun 08, 2019 5:53 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: More Point-to-Point The Path Forward?
Replies: 36
Views: 4638

Re: More Point-to-Point The Path Forward?

If there is enough traffic from an O to a D, including the regionals feeding O & D, to fill a NB profitably it will happen. Alaska flies from SEA to the following East Coast non-stop: ATL, BOS, BWI, DCA, IAD, TPA, FLL, MCO, EWR, JFK, LGA, PHL, PIT, and CHS. There are 3 cities in this group that ...

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by JayinKitsap
Sat Jun 08, 2019 5:30 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What does WN do about NK?
Replies: 69
Views: 9100

Re: What does WN do about NK?

A sign that Spirit is bothering WN is when WN starts selling tickets outside of its own site. Imagine an airline that doesn't cater to Orbitz et al. A traveller has to know to go on Southwest.

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by JayinKitsap
Fri Jun 07, 2019 9:46 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: F-35 news thread
Replies: 1095
Views: 116420

Re: F-35 news thread

There has been a period of DOD ineptness that fortunately seems to be receding. For the navy the DDG-1000, the LCS series, and the Ford carriers show the worst of it. The DDG-1000 cost over 8B apiece including development and clearly do less than Arleigh Burke's, systems like its 5 inch gun was desi...

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by JayinKitsap
Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: More safety issues for Boeing...
Replies: 37
Views: 5418

Re: More safety issues for Boeing...

You have to be kidding, since when has it become okay to say AD's are normal, they are not, they are issued to rectify serious design flaws or procedures or any abnormalities that affect flight safety. Maybe you're getting confused with SB's. It's time you guys accept the fact that Boeing has stuff...

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by JayinKitsap
Wed Jun 05, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Confirmed: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to Acquire CRJ Program from Bombardier
Replies: 282
Views: 23377

Re: Mitsubishi to buy the CRJ program?

CRJ would get Mitsubishi’s foot in the door and buy it time for the MRJ/Spacejet. Remember Mitsubishi is effectively relaunching that jet (or at least the smaller variant) and looking at moving production over to the US. That will likely delay the smaller variant (the CRJ competitor) a few years. W...

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by JayinKitsap
Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How did Airlines Fill up Large Widebodies in the Old days?
Replies: 95
Views: 14834

Re: How did Airlines Fill up Large Widebodies in the Old days?

Fares were higher and load factors far lower. And much money was lost. Lightsaber How to become a millionaire in aviation, start with $20 million watch it disappear. The 744 entered service in 1989 - the total produced of the 747 then was around 750. The DC-10 had 446 by 1989, the MD-11 had not sta...

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by JayinKitsap
Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:21 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: A400M Update Thread 2019
Replies: 165
Views: 22395

Re: A400M Update Thread 2019

The USN has a top 10 priority list that maybe 7 items are getting the support needed, I really doubt getting into the transport business is one of them. They do need a supply plane that can land on carriers, but that could be a follow on drone after the MQ-25 is in service. Speaking of Riverine boa...

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by JayinKitsap
Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:27 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: F-35 news thread
Replies: 1095
Views: 116420

Re: F-35 news thread

http://www.airforcemag.com/Features/Pag ... Hours.aspx
-->

A big milestone. 400 delivered and 200K flight hours.

http://www.airforcemag.com/Features/Pag ... Hours.aspx

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by JayinKitsap
Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:07 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: A400M Update Thread 2019
Replies: 165
Views: 22395

Re: A400M Update Thread 2019

Sales of the A-400 have been so brisk that there is a decade long backlog, how could any be available for the USN.

<< Hasn't actual orders been stuck at 174 since 2005? Since 2013 it appears that 79 are delivered. That is nearly 1 per month. >>>

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by JayinKitsap
Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: De Havilland Aircraft of Canada Returns to the Skies
Replies: 86
Views: 11852

Re: De Havilland Aircraft of Canada Returns to the Skies

First big step is stabilizing the Q400 production, need a good bit of orders like now. Does production stay in Mirabel or move out west. Viking Air has done decent supporting the previous DHC models, but it has been tough. It appears they have a plan, hope it is profitable. Production has never bee...

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by JayinKitsap
Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:55 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Should Airports Stop Building for 380 sized Aircraft?
Replies: 56
Views: 7206

Re: Should Airports Stop Building for 380 sized Aircraft?

Any current airport project that has entered the bidding stage or further will probably keep the A380 features in its design as taking it out once priced is a $.60 on the dollar kind of thing. The big costs with A380 is separation distances between runways, taxiways and planes parked at the gates. I...

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by JayinKitsap
Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: De Havilland Aircraft of Canada Returns to the Skies
Replies: 86
Views: 11852

Re: De Havilland Aircraft of Canada Returns to the Skies

First big step is stabilizing the Q400 production, need a good bit of orders like now. Does production stay in Mirabel or move out west.

Viking Air has done decent supporting the previous DHC models, but it has been tough. It appears they have a plan, hope it is profitable.

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by JayinKitsap
Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Wing Issue?
Replies: 21
Views: 6033

Re: Boeing Wing Issue?

So Boeing caught and self reported an issue with the flap tracks, when it got to the FAA an AD was issued with a 10 day window to fix. Boeing is already shipping parts and being quite on it. But some articles read that the FAA caught this and the wings could fall off in a light breeze. This is a hug...

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by JayinKitsap
Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: AA agrees to order 50 Airbus A321XLR's
Replies: 325
Views: 51960

Re: RUMOR: American to order A321LR

Please stop the 757 shoulda coulda dance. It stopped production nearly 15 years ago after the backlog ended with no orders in the prior 3 years. It is a wonderful plane, possibly my favorite, but it probably has less than 5 remaining years in pax service. The low hour /low cycle ones will continue o...

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by JayinKitsap
Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s
Replies: 31
Views: 7517

Re: Emirates to Retire A380s by Mid 2030s

Clark is probably gasping at the lease rates for the upcoming deliveries. Suddenly the lease has costs over the 12 year term, not 20+. The residual value has tanked to parts level. But parts are worthless the moment the last ones are in the air.

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by JayinKitsap
Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:06 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: A400M Update Thread 2019
Replies: 165
Views: 22395

Re: A400M Update Thread 2019

The USN has a top 10 priority list that maybe 7 items are getting the support needed, I really doubt getting into the transport business is one of them. They do need a supply plane that can land on carriers, but that could be a follow on drone after the MQ-25 is in service. Speaking of Riverine boat...

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by JayinKitsap
Mon Jun 03, 2019 4:59 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: USAF Considering New Build F-15X
Replies: 661
Views: 63339

Re: USAF Considering New Build F-15X

Sort of a counterpoint article about the F-15EX, I have some differences with it but it also has some good information. https://warontherocks.com/2019/06/f-15ex-the-strategic-blind-spot-in-the-air-forces-fighter-debate/ Some reasons I support going to the F-15EX are: a) the risk of having all one ty...

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