Search found 311 matches

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by jagraham
Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Should AB launch A310-300 based on A330NEO
Replies: 45
Views: 6925

Re: Should AB launch A310-300 based on A330NEO

The A310 weighs an amazing 25% less then the lightest A330/340, the A330-200. OEW's - A300-600 : 89t (195k lb) - A310-300 : 79t (175k lb) - A330-200 : 120t (265k lb) http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z160/keesje_pics/A330%20wingroot_zpsysveha9g.jpg It has smaller, lighter, wings, wing-box, landing...

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by jagraham
Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 3017
Views: 361322

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

I do not believe in 2 engine options. If the 2025 EiS is to be achieved, GE/CFM is in the best position to deliver this with a scaled up LEAP. But if a second geared turbo fan engine is allowed in, maybe with a later EiS, the long term outlook for the GE offering is not good. If the market is divid...

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by jagraham
Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 787 In Service Thread 2018
Replies: 96
Views: 13818

Re: 787 In Service Thread 2018

Markup on spare parts is how high? 2X?? 3X??? 4x???? After the 10 year point it makes sense, assuming the used aircraft marketplace is a fair determination of remaining value. The real question is how many spare parts are needed? Air India's earliest 787s are early 2014 (and mid 20 line numbers, so ...

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by jagraham
Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 3017
Views: 361322

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

The only thing that matters is ...are there customers willing to pay real $$ for enough aircraft to start the program? I still have my doubts. Who especially, are the launch customers? I'll set down my marker here, so I can be embarrassed by it later. This is my guess for NMA launch (both carriers ...

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by jagraham
Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Hawaiian going to BOS
Replies: 134
Views: 15697

Re: Hawaiian going to BOS

Schedule is loaded into HA system: HA89 BOS-HNL 8:00am - 1:40 pm HA90 HNL-BOS 1:45pm - 6:00am Leaving and arriving into Terminal E according to the Globe article. Is HA using 2 frames for this flight? only 5 minutes on the ground..........did i miss something? HA is coordinating with their early af...

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by jagraham
Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What the heck is going on with American Airlines?
Replies: 196
Views: 29735

Re: What the heck is going on with American Airlines?

AA SHOULD be the biggest in NYC and Delta shouldn't? Listen dude, Delta made some very smart moves in NYC by doing the slot swap with US back in 2010 and they made wise choices to grow themselves at JFK. They rightfully earned their place in New York. AA had the misfortune of merging with an airlin...

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by jagraham
Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Demise of WN in the PNW
Replies: 40
Views: 6396

Re: Demise of WN in the PNW

The reason for the emphasis on connections is Rapid Rewards. The greatest value any US based frequent flyer program can offer is a reward trip to Hawaii. The US3 does this and about half of Hawaii passengers are on reward trips. WN has known of this effect for some time and invested in American Tran...

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by jagraham
Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American A333s
Replies: 100
Views: 16098

Re: American A333s

When A330neo are starting to come into the market, the price for the current used A330ceo will lower. AA could add used A330 to expedite the removal of 767 out of the fleet. They could also replace the old P&W A330-300 with newer GE or RR A330-300. I look at the 24 A330 at AA as one fleet, as l...

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by jagraham
Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Demise of WN in the PNW
Replies: 40
Views: 6396

Re: Demise of WN in the PNW

Hawaii flying is not primarily O&D. Perhaps LA and Vegas could be made that way, but . . As WN gets started in Hawaii, they need to fly from the places that have the most connections (OAK) or the most O&D (LAX). A case could be made for flying from ONT, but it doesn't make sense to fly from ...

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by jagraham
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American A333s
Replies: 100
Views: 16098

Re: American A333s

The original AA plans (about BK exit time) assumed purchases of large numbers of new planes. Which was necessary in part due to old AA and US narrowbodies, and not many widebodies. But they were also betting on high fuel prices and low interest rates. Interest rates have remained low, so AA is profi...

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by jagraham
Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American A333s
Replies: 100
Views: 16098

Re: American A333s

Don't forget post 22 - there is a statement from AA about what they are going to do through 2020. It appears that AA is keeping aircraft numbers approximately constant. Remaining 45 MD80s, and the 20 E190s are gone between now and 2019. Still 5 767s at the end of 2020. That is where the emphasis is....

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by jagraham
Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Hurricane Florence & Boeing Plant in CHS?
Replies: 42
Views: 5866

Re: Hurricane Florence & Boeing Plant in CHS?

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
You should see USAF typhoon evacs—Guam and Okinawa to Honolulu. There’s also issues of parking, support, status of the plane’s modification, post-production, etc.

GF


Problem is there is a tropical storm (at this time) about to hit Hawaii . . interesting times.

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by jagraham
Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:28 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 787 Production/Delivery Thread - 2018
Replies: 893
Views: 221185

Re: 787 Production/Delivery Thread - 2018

Latest photos from CHS. You can see Etihad's first 787-10 in full livery: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DmhNSNlW0AANXbb.jpg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DmhNSOCXsAI1qcr.jpg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DmhNSNmXsAE-FVO.jpg https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DmhNSNlXoAAl3kT.jpg https://twitter.com/BillquinnBill...

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by jagraham
Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019
Replies: 264
Views: 37045

Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

I'm wondering how many Project Sunrise planes are needed when the 789 does PER - LHR everyday with a little cargo, on under 34000 gallons. Even though only 236 seats (I wonder how much of that is the desire to be premium heavy versus a need to save weight?). Not many routes are longer than PER - LHR...

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by jagraham
Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019
Replies: 264
Views: 37045

Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Wouldn't the standard A350-900/-1000 be better for shorter non-ULR route? Compared to the 777-8, yes. But the Qantas Group (QF+JQ) has a decent fleet of 787s that can handle those roles already and they continue to add to it. They also traditionally have not had a role for a long-haul plane sized a...

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by jagraham
Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta uncontained engine failure - ATL-MCO
Replies: 51
Views: 16283

Re: Delta uncontained engine failure - ATL-MCO

Even before knowing the details of the failure, a few things need to be said . . 1) Engine shutdowns are rare. Uncontained failures are even more rare. 2) There are some assumptions made about how engines will come apart. The United DC10 was a particular issue because the fan hub broke in two. The c...

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by jagraham
Sat Sep 08, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta uncontained engine failure - ATL-MCO
Replies: 51
Views: 16283

Re: Delta uncontained engine failure - ATL-MCO

Even before knowing the details of the failure, a few things need to be said . . 1) Engine shutdowns are rare. Uncontained failures are even more rare. 2) There are some assumptions made about how engines will come apart. The United DC10 was a particular issue because the fan hub broke in two. The c...

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by jagraham
Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Production Thread 2018
Replies: 215
Views: 50878

Re: Boeing 777X Production Thread 2018

It has to have the wingtip hinge.

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by jagraham
Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019
Replies: 264
Views: 37045

Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

MZFW is for the 779. 50 more passengers. Where does Boeing say they are taking structure out of the -8 compared to the -9? It is just shorter, hence wing and wing box have the same limitation. The -9 is also only 3 rows longer than the 300, not five, and that would be 30 passengers, 3t. Keep in min...

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by jagraham
Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019
Replies: 264
Views: 37045

Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

It is ridiculous to expect them to stand pat and accept so much OEW increase when there are viable options for doing something about it. It is in no way ridiculous, you can trade fuel savings via weight with fuel savings over efficiency. Boeing traded low OEW for an extremely efficient wing and eng...

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by jagraham
Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019
Replies: 264
Views: 37045

Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

The latest AL-LI should make the fuselage 6% to 7% lighter than the 77L and 77W fuselage. About 3% overall weight reduction, or about 5t. OEW about 155t. Last time i heard Boeing discarded the idea of using AL-Li because it is way expensive and safes only around 2000 pounds of weight, or no more th...

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by jagraham
Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019
Replies: 264
Views: 37045

Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Leeham.net guesstimates the 777-8 will come in with an OEM OEW of around 168,000kg, which is between 8-10,000kg higher than the OEM OEW of the A350-1000. I know. And Leeham is usually pretty good about these things. But once I looked at wing area, and convinced myself that the difference 1) is not ...

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by jagraham
Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019
Replies: 264
Views: 37045

Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

With regards to weight, the current average estimate for the 778 is 165t. ... About 3% overall weight reduction, or about 5t. OEW about 155t. Boeing is preparing a big positive surprise on weight compared to what everybody is expecting. Interesting analysis, and definitely affects the 777-8's marke...

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by jagraham
Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:02 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019
Replies: 264
Views: 37045

Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

With regards to weight, the current average estimate for the 778 is 165t. Versus 145t for a 77L, 167t for a 77W, and 159t for A35J (vs 141t for A359, a 7m stretch and at least 30 to 38 t OEW increase before Project Sunrise changes). The 77W is a 10m stretch of the 77L. So 2t per meter of stretch, wi...

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by jagraham
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019
Replies: 264
Views: 37045

Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

. Joyce said Qantas was seeking more details from Boeing on the weight of the 777-8, which has not yet entered production, but added he was confident both manufacturers could meet the range challenges. It seems both types can meet the range challenges, which is good. But Qanats is seeking more deta...

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by jagraham
Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why Delta outearns UA & AA - dominating its largest hubs - market share data by US network hubs
Replies: 88
Views: 8730

Re: Why Delta outearns UA & AA - dominating its largest hubs - market share data by US network hubs

DL is a lot farther along in the RJ restructuring. The 50 and 37 seaters have horrible CASM.
UA is within shouting distance because of its 77A domestic aircraft and more international flying

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by jagraham
Tue Sep 04, 2018 4:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What the heck is going on with American Airlines?
Replies: 196
Views: 29735

Re: What the heck is going on with American Airlines?

Is the fact that AA Trans Atlantic growth being flat inherently indicative of some large failure? Remember BA and AA share revenue and cost on some of those routes. A draw down out of ORD may actually increase revenue for the JV without raising cost. This point is important. I would suggest that th...

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by jagraham
Tue Sep 04, 2018 4:20 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What the heck is going on with American Airlines?
Replies: 196
Views: 29735

Re: What the heck is going on with American Airlines?

If you take the sum total of the populations of the 14 states where AA has difficulty serving intra-region traffic (WA, OR, ID, MT, UT. CO, KS, NE, ND, and SD), you've got 33 million people - or about the population of Texas alone. Think about that for a bit.... Subtract Washington state (7.4 milli...

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by jagraham
Tue Sep 04, 2018 4:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What the heck is going on with American Airlines?
Replies: 196
Views: 29735

Re: What the heck is going on with American Airlines?

The MD-80 issues don't help, but AA is getting past that. What MD-80 issues? Isnt the fleet being drawn down as we speak? The fleet is being drawn down rapidly. But that was not the original plan. AA has a lot of sub-2hr flights, and like DL, found after running the numbers that MD-80s were very co...

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by jagraham
Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Widebody Thread - 2018
Replies: 728
Views: 106937

Re: Delta Widebody Thread - 2018

Noteworthy Aircraft Activity 8/22 763ER-low J: MNL-NRT rescue flight following cancellation on 8/20 (N189DN) 763ER-low J: scheduled additional DTW-ATL flight (N193DN) 763ER-low J: scheduled upgrade from M90 on ATL-MSP route (N193DN) 763ER-low J: JFK-DTW ferry flight - aircraft repositioning (N1201P...

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by jagraham
Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)
Replies: 327
Views: 29343

Re: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)

Boeing has not been willing to pay the engine OEM in the last 3 projects, instead it expects them to make a contribution towards the development costs of the airframe There is no indication this has changed. . The financial position of all three engine OEM's has changed. Senior management / board c...

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by jagraham
Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What the heck is going on with American Airlines?
Replies: 196
Views: 29735

Re: What the heck is going on with American Airlines?

With regards to hubs, AA has hubs in 7 of the top ten metro areas (JFK/LGA, LAX, ORD, DCA, PHL, DFW, MIA), and focus cities in 2 (SFO, BOS). HOU is the only one of the top ten metro areas where AA is not represented. They also have hubs at PHX #14 (the rest of 11 thru 15 are SEA and 3 DL fortress hu...

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by jagraham
Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019
Replies: 264
Views: 37045

Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

OPs starting post reports that QF is satisfied that either the Boeing or Airbus proposals they now have can do SYD - LHR both ways.

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by jagraham
Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)
Replies: 327
Views: 29343

Re: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)

Tesla has purchased 2 automation vendors. So far . .

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by jagraham
Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)
Replies: 327
Views: 29343

Re: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)

This will have to be the most automated production ever. True, but be careful of what you wish for. Tesla found that they went too far with the automation. If Boeing goes too far they might end up spending a lot more time and money than if they just used humans for certain tasks. Automation require...

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by jagraham
Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)
Replies: 327
Views: 29343

Re: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)

I believe the engine manufacturers are lukewarm because of Boeing's terms.

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by jagraham
Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)
Replies: 327
Views: 29343

Re: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)

I should also say that this market should be addressed by a 787 derivative for cost reasons. New smaller but not shorter wing; enlarged A320NEO engines. Call it a day. Same for Airbus; put a smaller but not shorter composite wing on an A332 and enlarged A320NEO engines. It won't be quite optimum, bu...

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by jagraham
Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)
Replies: 327
Views: 29343

Re: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)

If a plane can take 270 people across the Atlantic for 10000 gallons or less, there will be a large market. Especially if it has a reasonable business class section with lie-flat seating. This is why airlines are expressing interest. An A320NEO starts with 7000 gal of fuel. To cross the Atlantic, 3 ...

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by jagraham
Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)
Replies: 327
Views: 29343

Re: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)

understandable. Understanding would collide with your task. ... in the ( distant ) past. There were over 1000 767s built and the freigther version is still in production. The 767 proved that a small widebody is viable Just that it was not small at the time and the market was totally different. The ...

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by jagraham
Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)
Replies: 327
Views: 29343

Re: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)

Boeing pushed it with the NSA, then Airbus kicked their butts with the A320NEO . . Boeing needs to get their act together. Fortunately for Boeing, Airbus has indigestion with the A320NEO and A350 programs right now. Seems like Boeing has the "same" issues now. https://www.seattletimes.com...

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by jagraham
Fri Aug 31, 2018 4:07 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)
Replies: 327
Views: 29343

Re: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)

Boeing pushed it with the NSA, then Airbus kicked their butts with the A320NEO . . Boeing needs to get their act together. Fortunately for Boeing, Airbus has indigestion with the A320NEO and A350 programs right now.

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by jagraham
Fri Aug 31, 2018 4:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL Orders Shades Down for Taxi and Takeoff
Replies: 59
Views: 12122

Re: DL Orders Shades Down for Taxi and Takeoff

In the last 2 weeks I have taken 10 Delta/Skywest/GoJet branded flights. Every single flight on taxi to the gate ‘To better serve our next guests feel more comfortable we kindly ask you open your air vents and close your window shades’ or something to that wording. That’s on every flight, not one d...

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by jagraham
Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:28 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 2nd longest non stop MAX flight begins today
Replies: 109
Views: 20024

Re: 2nd longest non stop MAX flight begins today

....not the least of which being that 7hr50min is the same whether you're in a 737 or an SST. I dont mind a narrowbody for longer segments as long as I get an aisle seat towards the rear of the plane! :) But these new gen "slimline" seats are.....Ugh! I just cant seem to find that sweet s...

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by jagraham
Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:15 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus formally list 251t A330neo
Replies: 119
Views: 19475

Re: Airbus formally list 251t A330neo

ehaase wrote:
jagraham wrote:
I agree DL will keep the 763s running until the NMA is available.


Will Delta just order more 339's if Boeing doesn't develop the NMA?


Probably. Unless DL really likes AA's price on 788s . .

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by jagraham
Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus formally list 251t A330neo
Replies: 119
Views: 19475

Re: Airbus formally list 251t A330neo

DL ordering the A330-800neo makes no sense, either to replace the 767 fleet or otherwise. It is looking more and more as if the market has spoken and it seems the market does not want the A330-800neo. Like many people on this board, I am fully expecting DL to place a very large 797 order as replace...

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by jagraham
Mon Aug 27, 2018 5:21 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019
Replies: 264
Views: 37045

Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

With the prevalent winds doesn't going "the other way round" become attractive the closer you have an antipodes route? earth circumference is 20,000nm. you only need ~30..35kn headwind to turn the tables afaics. Leeham in their series last year reported a Qantas source as saying that the ...

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by jagraham
Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019
Replies: 264
Views: 37045

Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

The 777-200LR has 247t...Do you have a quote for Eric Lindblad declaring to lift the MTOW of the 777-8 over 351t? How would they manage it, an extra center MLG? The 777-200LR MTOW is 347t (which I expect you meant and mis-typed). And looking at the article, it was actually 777X chief project engine...

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by jagraham
Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019
Replies: 264
Views: 37045

Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

There are rumours of MTOW increases on the -9 also to meet performance guarantees. Sadly, you’ll do/say anything to disparage a Boeing product. Not once has this been rumored at this point on here or anywhere else that I’ve seen. Zeke knows more about those details by flying the things. RE 777X MTO...

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by jagraham
Sun Aug 26, 2018 4:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus is considering A350-1000ULR
Replies: 135
Views: 31540

Re: Airbus is considering A350-1000ULR

The 777-8 is not more a purpose build ULH than a possible A350-1000ULR. The 777-8 started out as a 777-200, redone to a 777-200ER, redone to a 777-200LR and now stretched and rewinged as the 777-8. Up to now the numbers for the 777-8 swirling around here on a net are mainly guesses, based on the 77...

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