Search found 161 matches

by 3AWM
Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Why didn't/doesn't VS fly to SIN?
Replies: 19
Views: 1530

Re: Why didn't/doesn't VS fly to SIN?

Absolutely no proof or knowledge of this but I woudld like to speculate it's to do with SQ's agreements to transit passengers onwards to east cost US - ie VS stay out of UK-SIN but get onwards TFR PAX.

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by 3AWM
Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SQ signs MOU with MH to expand codesharing, among other areas of co-operation
Replies: 18
Views: 4877

Re: SQ signs MOU with MH to expand codesharing, among other areas of co-operation

Fastasy airline stuff here but.. IMO the key areas where MH loses to AK is not on cost but not flying direct. It doesn't matter which route you are flying it's better, and you'd pay a premium to go direct. Perhaps a re-imagined MH would de-hub KUL and build mini regional hubs in all it's key airport...

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by 3AWM
Fri Jul 05, 2019 10:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Flybe update
Replies: 111
Views: 21024

Re: Flybe update

Anyone can take them over but like remedy routes at LHR anyone without the competitive advantages of the incumbents (ie a hub on the other end) will find it difficult to get a foothold. You are right when you indicate not clear who would come in. Easyjet maybe due to presence at AMS and CDG but neve...

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by 3AWM
Fri Jul 05, 2019 9:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Flybe update
Replies: 111
Views: 21024

Re: Flybe update

Effectively confirms that VS AF/KLM buyin will get approval otherwise why woudl they rule that.

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by 3AWM
Fri Jul 05, 2019 9:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Flybe update
Replies: 111
Views: 21024

Re: Flybe update

Not really sure what difference that makes as AF & KLM can just upguage service on their existing flights and still have a monoply.

Presumably the CDG and AMS slots can just be used by AF & KLM to fly somewhere else. BHX isn't slot constrained any new operator could have a go.

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by 3AWM
Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:47 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SQ signs MOU with MH to expand codesharing, among other areas of co-operation
Replies: 18
Views: 4877

Singapore Airlines And Malaysia Airlines Sign MOU For Wide-Ranging Co-Operation

Not seen this anywhere else: https://www.singaporeair.com/en_UK/sg/media-centre/press-release/article/?q=en_UK/2019/April-June/jr1019-190627 Any thoughts on what this does for SQ? Does it give them access to bilaterals that they don't currently have through Singapore? Good news for MH or further ero...

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by 3AWM
Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Atlantic demands 150 slots at expanded Heathrow airport
Replies: 136
Views: 19446

Re: Virgin Atlantic demands 150 slots at expanded Heathrow airport

The thing is the growth potential for VS of eating into BA's share at LHR is much, much, bigger that the growth potential as MAN. If more slots become available they are going to want to hub as much traffic through there as possible, the same as BA do. Advent of the A321XLR will help as they would b...

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by 3AWM
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Confirmed: Virgin Atlantic ordering/leasing 14 A330-900neo's plus 6 options
Replies: 178
Views: 32719

Re: Confirmed: Virgin Atlantic ordering/leasing 14 A330-900neo's plus 6 options

One point that has flown under the radar is their plans at Gatwick. I assume their intention is to consolidate their London flying at LHR, but this is my speculation. Virgin are very quiet in Gatwick and they don't have that many departures from there but their head office is also I think (at) Gatw...

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by 3AWM
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Confirmed: Virgin Atlantic ordering/leasing 14 A330-900neo's plus 6 options
Replies: 178
Views: 32719

Re: Confirmed: Virgin Atlantic ordering/leasing 14 A330-900neo's plus 6 options

Virgin are going to expand where it's commercially viable and the CEO seems to think that is LHR. "Virgin Atlantic Set to Double Capacity at Heathrow Says CEO" "The carrier, founded by billionaire Richard Branson, would like to use Flybe to roll up more airlines into an expanded shor...

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by 3AWM
Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Confirmed: Virgin Atlantic ordering/leasing 14 A330-900neo's plus 6 options
Replies: 178
Views: 32719

Re: Confirmed: Virgin Atlantic ordering/leasing 14 A330-900neo's plus 6 options

Virgin are going to expand where it's commercially viable and the CEO seems to think that is LHR. "Virgin Atlantic Set to Double Capacity at Heathrow Says CEO" "The carrier, founded by billionaire Richard Branson, would like to use Flybe to roll up more airlines into an expanded short...

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by 3AWM
Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Confirmed: Virgin Atlantic ordering/leasing 14 A330-900neo's plus 6 options
Replies: 178
Views: 32719

Re: Confirmed: Virgin Atlantic ordering/leasing 14 A330-900neo's plus 6 options

Plan B is not expanding. The last thing VS want to do is treble size overnight. They want to add network destinations a few at time.

If this order was about trebling in size they would have 100 options not 6.

Whichever way you want to look at it his stated intent is to grow at LHR.

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by 3AWM
Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Confirmed: Virgin Atlantic ordering/leasing 14 A330-900neo's plus 6 options
Replies: 178
Views: 32719

Re: Confirmed: Virgin Atlantic ordering/leasing 14 A330-900neo's plus 6 options

That growth is dependent on Runway 3 being built. With more legal challenges in the wings, potential anti-R3 prime minister in BoJo coming online and the growing anti Greenhouse Gas lobby particularly targeting aviation, I'll put good money on that runway not being ready by Shai's 2026 target. And ...

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by 3AWM
Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Flybe update
Replies: 111
Views: 21024

Re: Flybe update

However, if you believe the vast number of quotes in the public domain (including comments by the VS CEO and statements made in court documents) that make it clear the BE network inherited is going to be changed significantly. Well this is the line I took issue with. I don't see a "vast number...

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by 3AWM
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Flybe update
Replies: 111
Views: 21024

Re: Flybe update

I’ve pointed out express statements that clearly Set out that changes will be made to the inherited FlyBe network to achieve the synergies they want to achieve. If you expect Connect to set out the detail of its network plans before they have received regulatory approval I’d say that view is misgui...

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by 3AWM
Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Flybe update
Replies: 111
Views: 21024

Re: Flybe update

But where does it say they are going to change the network? All of these things are achieved by buying Flybe as is. I think the phrases “ enhance its European footprint ” and “ improved connectivity at Manchester Airport and London Heathrow ” and “ enhanced presence at Manchester Airport , London H...

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by 3AWM
Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Flybe update
Replies: 111
Views: 21024

Re: Flybe update

Not sure how SEN fits in. Are VS planning to fly from there or transfer passengers across from LHR. Stobart own SEN - so this is really about what Stobard want from the transaction - to build up services at SEN. What is interesting in all of the press releases is no mention of LGW. Flybe was also a...

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by 3AWM
Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Flybe update
Replies: 111
Views: 21024

Re: Flybe update

But where does it say they are going to change the network? All of these things are achieved by buying Flybe as is.

"The Combined Group will maintain Flybe’s current UK regional focus"

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by 3AWM
Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Flybe update
Replies: 111
Views: 21024

Re: Flybe update

However, if you believe the vast number of quotes in the public domain (including comments by the VS CEO and statements made in court documents) that make it clear the BE network inherited is going to be changed significantly. Can you quote any sources to substantiate this? I don't see VS making an...

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by 3AWM
Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Flybe update
Replies: 111
Views: 21024

Re: Flybe update

The problem with the Q400s is there overhead bin is too small for a standard cabin bag and there isn't much room under the seat. To add to the mix a lot of people getting those flights are only doing the trips for a few days and just want carry-on anyway. It just doesn't lend it self to the baggage ...

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by 3AWM
Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia and Virgin Atlantic propose deeper partnership
Replies: 40
Views: 6551

Re: Virgin Australia and Virgin Atlantic propose deeper partnership

No doubt of benefit to both parties but surely small beans unless other connections or mid-points are added on the Australia side. Any likelyhood of this?

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by 3AWM
Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EK launches unbundled Business: to charge for seat assignment, lounge, etc
Replies: 78
Views: 9000

Re: EK launches unbundled Business: to charge for seat assignment, lounge, etc

Based in the link initially it appears what is being unbundled is the lounge access and the car to the airport. Both of these I could live without. Looking a bit further it appears that seat selection is unbundled - so sounds a bit of a crafty way to sell the middle seat than no-one wants, this woul...

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by 3AWM
Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread
Replies: 278
Views: 42280

Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

I think what is on sale here is really closer to a sale and lease back transaction. Thomas Cook needs cash now so they sell the rights to operating their holiday flights for x number of years to the buyer who when sells the flights back to them a seat at a time. They would like continuity, the airli...

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by 3AWM
Mon May 20, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread
Replies: 278
Views: 42280

Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

There are creative ways around ownership rules. Indigo have a share in Wizz, so Indigo have could take 49% and Wizz take 51%.

Most of the routes are also EU routes so Wizz could just operate from EU bases.

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by 3AWM
Mon May 20, 2019 8:58 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread
Replies: 278
Views: 42280

Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

The £1.1bn right down is really not that important to trading but it is important to shareholder (and share price) value. It also tells you something about the direction the package holiday market is going and how quickly. What is more worrying to me is the £400million trading loss and the need to s...

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by 3AWM
Sun May 19, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread
Replies: 278
Views: 42280

Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

I take your point but Thomas Cook is still the major customer on all routes. Are there any routes that would still be profitable if you took all of Thomas Cook's seats out?

Also half of the seats might still only add up to 35% of Load Factor if existing Load Factor is only 70%.

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by 3AWM
Sun May 19, 2019 1:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread
Replies: 278
Views: 42280

Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Difficulty for any airline buying into TCX is seat sales rely on Thomas Cook the travel business continuing to be in existence. It makes a lot more sense to be sold as bits as this spreads the risk around buyers of different parts. The fact that everyone knows Thomas Cook need to sell the airline to...

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by 3AWM
Sun May 19, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will DL return to Hong Kong anytime soon?
Replies: 111
Views: 13534

Re: Will DL return to Hong Kong anytime soon?

DL were struggling to be a competitor into London before they bought into VS and now they are a major player. Strikes me that it might be a similar transaction if the bought Hong Kong Airlines. This would give them a local partner with their own FFer community and contracts to sell DL's US network i...

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by 3AWM
Sun May 12, 2019 5:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread
Replies: 278
Views: 42280

Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Not familiar with TCX's operations but according to to Wikipedia they have 7 A330s on lease, 3 operating for Condor. Any info on how accurate this is? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Cook_Airlines If so we are talking about VS taking over 4 A330 leases (some serving LGW) which is relatively sma...

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by 3AWM
Sat Apr 20, 2019 4:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans
Replies: 131
Views: 23823

Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

For new destinations, in Europe I could see BHX, but it would likely require a reduction in LHR because of how close they are and the leakage that exists from BHX to LHR Hell would freeze over before CX give up valuable slots at LHR in favour of adding a BHX flight. Agreed. Never gonna happen. No e...

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by 3AWM
Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Atlantic posts another annual loss for 2018
Replies: 47
Views: 8775

Re: Virgin Atlantic posts another annual loss for 2018

Yes it's correct. DL won't consolidate full trading results of VS only it's share of the JV + it will book additional ticket sales on it's own network. Any investment in VS will be shown elsewhere on the accounts (under balance sheet investments). The may charge an impairment to the investment - but...

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by 3AWM
Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Atlantic posts another annual loss for 2018
Replies: 47
Views: 8775

Re: Virgin Atlantic posts another annual loss for 2018

You're not comparing apples with apples. BA is a major operating division of a listed company and has to consolidate it's results in the annual statements. They need to make a profit in a certain range to satisfy shareholders and keep the share price on track. VS is a minority investment for DL so t...

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by 3AWM
Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Atlantic posts another annual loss for 2018
Replies: 47
Views: 8775

Re: Virgin Atlantic posts another annual loss for 2018

Bongodog49 wrote:

DL get feed into their domestic network, SRB gets a royalty payment, but what benefit under your analysis accrues to AF/KLM for their shareholding ?


Same.

Right now Virgin is UK salesman for Delta. Post AF/KLM partnership it will also be UK salesman for AF/KLM networks.

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by 3AWM
Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Atlantic posts another annual loss for 2018
Replies: 47
Views: 8775

Re: Virgin Atlantic posts another annual loss for 2018

Delta sell a lot of flights on their domestic network though the partnership with VS - but it doesn't show in VS's accounts. Virgin group charge a royalty on sales to the airline for the use of the brand - so SRB get's his profit out whether or not VS makes a profit.(you would have to add that royal...

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by 3AWM
Mon Mar 25, 2019 4:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Malaysia Mulls Shutting Down or Selling MAS
Replies: 151
Views: 31290

Re: Malaysia Mulls Shutting Down or Selling MAS

I can see some advantages of this-

- a route around the restrictive Qatar - Australia air service agreement
- taking out he extensive Emirates codeshare for a similar deal with Qatar

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by 3AWM
Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Thomas Cook Airlines “strategic review”
Replies: 64
Views: 13930

Re: Thomas Cook Airlines “strategic review”

The problem for any buyer of TCX is most of the seat sales come from the Thomas Cook holiday business so without those sales it's not really worth anything. You could agree that contractually that all Thomas Cook sales are going with the airline for a fixed amount of time but any buyer would then be...

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by 3AWM
Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions
Replies: 113
Views: 20263

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

3AWM is saying is that it the MAN-India market is less attractive for VS if they have no partner in India (which assumes 9W collapse) and/or if Pakistan airspace remains closed (which means a longer flight time). What 3AWM is not acknowledging is that Pakistan airspace is unlikely to remain closed ...

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by 3AWM
Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions
Replies: 113
Views: 20263

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

I would say that the viability of VS connections to India somewhat depends on the relationship with Jet to capitalise on connections on each end and to sell Virgin flights with a Jet code. So a MAN India flight probably looks less likely now. Also Pakistan overfly issues are likely to hinder rather ...

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by 3AWM
Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: MH an opportunity for IAG?
Replies: 27
Views: 4472

Re: MH an opportunity for IAG?

MH already has a HEL codeshare - although it's with KL via AMS, which is somewhat inexplicable. Same goes for MAD, MH has codeshares to MAD but it's with EK & EY. In fact, what's weird is that MH has codeshares with many of the oneworld airlines BUT IAG, even from the beginning. The codeshare M...

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by 3AWM
Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:40 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: VS new destination
Replies: 40
Views: 7377

Re: VS new destination

In that case I guess we will also see an announcement of a codeshare with GOL.

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by 3AWM
Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: MH an opportunity for IAG?
Replies: 27
Views: 4472

Re: MH an opportunity for IAG?

What I heard anecdotally from QF passengers changing in DXB was: -Didn't like the airport (too crowded) -Didn't like the flight timings as much as changing in Asia I suspect also factors were: -Just offering some differentiation to passengers -Being able to transfer connections to Jetstar Asia in SI...

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by 3AWM
Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: MH an opportunity for IAG?
Replies: 27
Views: 4472

Re: MH an opportunity for IAG?

AFAIK the UK has a comprehensive open skies agreement with Malaysia which whilst it would not allow IAG to own MH it would allow BA or any other UK airline to operate their routes and any other routes in or originating from Malaysia. https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/breaking-news/205903/malaysia...

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by 3AWM
Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: MH an opportunity for IAG?
Replies: 27
Views: 4472

MH an opportunity for IAG?

It was reported on an earlier thread that Malaysian government were considering options for MH. It strikes me that MH would like to be competing with SQ but are actually competing with Air Asia. I was looking at flights around SE Asia and for every Air Asia or Scoot flight there seems to be a simila...

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by 3AWM
Fri Mar 15, 2019 6:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air India suspends Madrid and Birmingham
Replies: 44
Views: 10125

Re: Air India suspends Madrid and Birmingham

BHX is the only European route out of ATQ.

You only need to look at a map to see why that route would be uniquely and significantly effected by not being able to overfly Pakistan.

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by 3AWM
Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Malaysia Mulls Shutting Down or Selling MAS
Replies: 151
Views: 31290

Re: Malaysia Mulls Shutting Down or Selling MAS

I've got no beef with MAS but closing it down makes a ton of sense to me. Malaysia already has a strong an profitable airline in the shape of Air Asia and it doesn't need a subsidised national carrier. If MAS shut down Air Asia could just acquire whatever routes, frames, slots they wanted and contin...

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by 3AWM
Tue Mar 05, 2019 10:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: VS, AF, DL, KL announce extensive codeshare
Replies: 41
Views: 9508

Re: VS, AF, DL, KL announce extensive codeshare

Other than making it look neat what has VS or it's investor/ partners DL/AF/KLM got to gain from VS joining Skyteam? I can't see where it would sell them more tickets or provide them with much in the way of distribution outside of the existing partners. They might have to give up some of their exis...

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by 3AWM
Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: VS, AF, DL, KL announce extensive codeshare
Replies: 41
Views: 9508

Re: VS, AF, DL, KL announce extensive codeshare

Other than making it look neat what has VS or it's investor/ partners DL/AF/KLM got to gain from VS joining Skyteam? I can't see where it would sell them more tickets or provide them with much in the way of distribution outside of the existing partners. They might have to give up some of their exist...

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by 3AWM
Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: VS, AF, DL, KL announce extensive codeshare
Replies: 41
Views: 9508

Re: VS, AF, DL, KL announce extensive codeshare

With Virgin codes going on some AF / KL services from the UK regions to AMS and CDG, it doesn't look so good for some of the Flybe services that have been in competition. I can't see the VS / KL / AF partnership having a VS code on KL / AF services and operating its own services too. Consolidation ...

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by 3AWM
Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:56 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions
Replies: 113
Views: 20263

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

Like you say Manchester has a reputation for being a yield cesspool, I think that's a bit unfair there is no smoke without fire andt it's clearly not a high yield destination, I'm just offering an explanation for that. Its also clear that Manchester picks up traffic from locations outside of it's na...

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by 3AWM
Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions
Replies: 113
Views: 20263

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

3AWM, You have not read my post correctly at all, and in fact, the points you make reinforce the fact that many people really do not know the market and demographics at all, yet reply with a sense of authority on the subject. I was pointing out MAN is NOT a yield cesspool, yet you seem to claim it ...

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