Search found 1799 matches

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by VS11
Wed May 25, 2022 8:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

You keep on introducing macroeconomic considerations like they’re only applicable to F9/NK, but B6/NK would some how be immune. Is the labor market different for ULCCs? No, it is not. I was talking about the diminishing competitive advantage of the ULCC carriers in a tough labor market when they ha...

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by VS11
Wed May 25, 2022 7:33 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

You keep on introducing macroeconomic considerations like they’re only applicable to F9/NK, but B6/NK would some how be immune. Is the labor market different for ULCCs? No, it is not. I was talking about the diminishing competitive advantage of the ULCC carriers in a tough labor market when they ha...

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by VS11
Tue May 24, 2022 10:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

These are average system fares. The entire premise of the ULCC business model is that you stimulate markets and/or pick up spill traffic with lower fares. I would agree that ancillary revenue narrows the gap, but the cold, hard reality is that F9 and NK (plus G4) have significantly lower costs than...

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by VS11
Tue May 24, 2022 9:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Think the basis of the ULCC argument is that they can profitably offer lower fares, e.g. F9 had an average fare of $53 and NK $55 in 2019, compared to $182 for B6. I doubt this is in the same market. If it is, then F9 and NK should fire their revenue managers as they would be able to charge more an...

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by VS11
Tue May 24, 2022 9:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Think the basis of the ULCC argument is that they can profitably offer lower fares, e.g. F9 had an average fare of $53 and NK $55 in 2019, compared to $182 for B6. I doubt this is in the same market. If it is, then F9 and NK should fire their revenue managers as they would be able to charge more an...

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by VS11
Tue May 24, 2022 9:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

The essence of the ULCC model is low costs, which the major carriers do not have. They are not going to offer money losing fares for no reason. Well, the motto of Spirit is "Home of the Bare Fare". Bare Fare = Basic Economy Fare. And nobody is offering money-losing fares. It is very naive...

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by VS11
Tue May 24, 2022 8:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

I'm surprised that no one has posted this, but at least some NK shareholders are not happy. We will see how the June 10th vote goes. If this vote does not go through, I don't see how NK board can stick around. https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2022/05/24/spirit-airlines-faces-shareholder-lawsuit-f...

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by VS11
Tue May 24, 2022 8:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

I'm still confused as to why you think basic economy = ULCC seats. It is not the same thing. The other carriers only offer this in reaction to ULCC presence so I'd the ULCC presence is greatly diminished, why would the other carriers continue to have this offering? It is the same thing. ULCC carrie...

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by VS11
Tue May 24, 2022 8:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

[quote="VS11] "those ULCC seats are offered by every airline on every flight. Fares will be rising one way or another due to inflation, increased demand and reduced supply per crew shortages.[/quote] ULCC is being bandied about so much now that I wonder if some of you know what it actuall...

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by VS11
Tue May 24, 2022 7:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

I'm still confused as to why you think basic economy = ULCC seats. It is not the same thing. The other carriers only offer this in reaction to ULCC presence so I'd the ULCC presence is greatly diminished, why would the other carriers continue to have this offering? It is the same thing. ULCC carrie...

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by VS11
Tue May 24, 2022 1:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

I am not sure there is anyone today that can with a straight face says we have "too much" capacity domestically to warrant the dismemberment of a strong competitor as JetBlue proposes. I think there is a domestic overcapacity situation brewing in the US. In the next couple of years, it wi...

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by VS11
Tue May 24, 2022 1:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

My $0.02 JetBlue acquisition will remove one of their stronger competitors and reduce marketplace competition. A Frontier deal will create a much stonger and viable national ULCC. Todays JetBlue is far from the darling a decade ago and has lost it way. This proposal which has a ton of airline and f...

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by VS11
Tue May 24, 2022 8:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

I am not sure there is anyone today that can with a straight face says we have "too much" capacity domestically to warrant the dismemberment of a strong competitor as JetBlue proposes. I think there is a domestic overcapacity situation brewing in the US. In the next couple of years, it wi...

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by VS11
Tue May 24, 2022 7:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

My $0.02 JetBlue acquisition will remove one of their stronger competitors and reduce marketplace competition. A Frontier deal will create a much stonger and viable national ULCC. Todays JetBlue is far from the darling a decade ago and has lost it way. This proposal which has a ton of airline and f...

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by VS11
Mon May 23, 2022 9:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Spirit has filed another presentation as a response to jetBlue's recent one and before their call today. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001498710/000149871022000187/secfiling-jetblueoffersz.htm Admittedly I am not an institutional investor, but the tone of the Spirit presentation seems a ...

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by VS11
Mon May 23, 2022 7:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... ffersz.htm
-->

Spirit has filed another presentation as a response to jetBlue's recent one and before their call today.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... ffersz.htm

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by VS11
Mon May 23, 2022 2:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Jetblue files another presentation with SEC on their view of the benefits to B6/NK vs F9/NK and other details. http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20220523/AN22TG2DZZ2R4ZZU22J42ZYRK989EZ22Z242/?fbclid=IwAR0jHjchymbwTZYAI7Ym1Kat-sHTeaz32a4bhng8ZQasj-3x7Da6tsvQis8 This is a great presentation. Very compreh...

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by VS11
Sun May 22, 2022 1:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Well, we should not take it for granted that the F9 offer will be accepted on June 10th, just because the BoD recommends it. There will be shareholders that could have already sold their shares to jetBlue, and jetBlue could very well have been buying Spirit shares in the open market. jetBlue could ...

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by VS11
Sun May 22, 2022 1:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

- And for those that are not underwater they might not want a distribution and taxable event today, By going with Frontier they gain tax shielding benefits, particularly the large institutional investors Hence why jetBlue should have structured their offer in a similar way - cash and stock. The fac...

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by VS11
Sun May 22, 2022 6:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

- And for those that are not underwater they might not want a distribution and taxable event today, By going with Frontier they gain tax shielding benefits, particularly the large institutional investors Hence why jetBlue should have structured their offer in a similar way - cash and stock. The fac...

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by VS11
Thu May 19, 2022 7:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

I have not (to the post directly above). But I think there is good reason for there to be no comparisons written: will not be definitive to sway any argument imo. If there is a claim that prices have gone up on average fares then just maybe they have not gone up as much as they would have gone up h...

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by VS11
Thu May 19, 2022 3:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirithe

What type of quantitative backing is missing? If I am an investor in Spirit who sees merit in both transactions and considers the regulatory risk to be equal in each proposed merger, the very least is to compare impact of each transaction and what a possible remedy might look like: number and size ...

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by VS11
Thu May 19, 2022 2:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirithe

As was expected: "Spirit Airlines Board of Directors Urges Stockholders to Reject JetBlue Tender Offer" https://ir.spirit.com/news-releases/news-details/2022/Spirit-Airlines-Board-of-Directors-Urges-Stockholders-to-Reject-JetBlue-Tender-Offer/default.aspx Very well written, structured and...

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by VS11
Thu May 19, 2022 1:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

As was expected: "Spirit Airlines Board of Directors Urges Stockholders to Reject JetBlue Tender Offer" https://ir.spirit.com/news-releases/news-details/2022/Spirit-Airlines-Board-of-Directors-Urges-Stockholders-to-Reject-JetBlue-Tender-Offer/default.aspx Very well written, structured and...

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by VS11
Wed May 18, 2022 4:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit

Individual flight attendants might feel that way, but the AFA itself supports F9 because they (most likely) lose representation, and therefore members dues, if NK merges with TWU represented B6. TWU opposes the B6 hostile bid, calling B6 a “hostile employer.” https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2022...

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by VS11
Mon May 16, 2022 4:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes New Offer for Spirit

a) The fares on 1-2-3-4-5-e.t.c. routes does not determine the overall makeup of the market b) You accidentally raised a valid counterargument: Basic economy fares were introduced for the expressed intention to compete with NK (and other ULCCs)..... https://www.npr.org/2016/12/12/505015248/united-s...

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by VS11
Mon May 16, 2022 4:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes New Offer for Spirit

Eliminating a competitor is not really a true argument here. All airlines essentially offer the Spirit/Frontier product as a basic economy fare - this has been going on for years. Just a random search BOS-FLL for Sat June 25 gives you: Non-stops: Spirit - $217 Delta - $234 jetBlue - $199 1-stop Uni...

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by VS11
Mon May 16, 2022 3:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Makes Hostile Takeover Offer for Spirit
Replies: 407
Views: 51840

Re: JetBlue Makes New Offer for Spirit

Eliminating a competitor is not really a true argument here. All airlines essentially offer the Spirit/Frontier product as a basic economy fare - this has been going on for years. Just a random search BOS-FLL for Sat June 25 gives you: Non-stops: Spirit - $217 Delta - $234 jetBlue - $199 1-stop Unit...

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by VS11
Fri May 13, 2022 1:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Russia’s UAC to begin restoration work on Il-96, Tu-204 and An-124 aircraft
Replies: 41
Views: 9042

Re: Russia’s UAC to begin restoration work on Il-96, Tu-204 and An-124 aircraft

It's a dilemma: Rebuilding soviet aircraft is costly and creates outdated products while designing and building new airliners is even more costly and requires western participation that has been terminated and embargoed now. They can use what they have but the more they use it the earlier they will...

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by VS11
Fri May 13, 2022 1:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Russia’s UAC to begin restoration work on Il-96, Tu-204 and An-124 aircraft
Replies: 41
Views: 9042

Re: Russia’s UAC to begin restoration work on Il-96, Tu-204 and An-124 aircraft

They should resurrect the TU-144 while they are at it… :D

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by VS11
Mon May 09, 2022 9:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit
Replies: 992
Views: 152695

Re: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit

If NK ends up staying independent, it would not be the worst outcome. They have an established brand, a low cost structure and a modern fleet. If they merge up with either competitor, the sum will end up being less than the parts and the acquiring airline will be saddled with debt required to make ...

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by VS11
Mon May 09, 2022 9:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AerCap CEO says “Boeing will Bounce Back”
Replies: 48
Views: 5937

Re: AerCap CEO says “Boeing will Bounce Back”

Boeing just needs to move ahead with products. Get the management, investors and strategy to support this and you are good. It's time to end the wait. It's hard to watch this phlegma. They are moving ahead but they cannot force the FAA, which is a large bureaucracy, to act faster. Covid created sta...

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by VS11
Fri May 06, 2022 10:36 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit
Replies: 992
Views: 152695

Re: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit

jetBlue should just offer some equity for existing Spirit shareholders, just like the Frontier offer and then its offer will surely constitute a superior offer. Goldman Sachs is their financial advisor - they sure can make it interesting for the existing Spirit equity holders. The issue is not the ...

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by VS11
Fri May 06, 2022 6:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit
Replies: 992
Views: 152695

Re: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit

jetBlue should just offer some equity for existing Spirit shareholders, just like the Frontier offer and then its offer will surely constitute a superior offer. Goldman Sachs is their financial advisor - they sure can make it interesting for the existing Spirit equity holders.

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by VS11
Wed May 04, 2022 2:52 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: What should JetBlue do now?
Replies: 82
Views: 7498

Re: What should JetBlue do now?

flyby519 wrote:
Is there a path forward for B6 that includes a successful outcome with the NEA lawsuit?


Yes! If they can prove that the NEA has not been anti-competitive. Both airlines seem very confident that they can make their case.

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by VS11
Wed May 04, 2022 8:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit
Replies: 992
Views: 152695

Re: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit

As for NK, I think the Spirit board/management just really want Indigo ahead of JetBlue. Maybe it's because they know that JetBlue will just shred the network they've been building up and probably sending the entire NK management packing after a merger. Maybe it's because they think they will get t...

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by VS11
Wed May 04, 2022 6:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit
Replies: 992
Views: 152695

Re: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit

A hostile takeover by an airline that has operational problems in its current state, what could go wrong here? Sounds like a nightmare scenario Technically, they do not have to integrate both airlines. If jetBlue controls Spirit, B6 could gradually transfer assets from Spirit to jetBlue and wind do...

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by VS11
Wed May 04, 2022 6:25 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: What should JetBlue do now?
Replies: 82
Views: 7498

Re: What should JetBlue do now?

But why would they need to do anything other than what they have been doing until now? Why not just keep on growing organically and slowly expanding their coverage to new markets. Because currently there is a unique opportunity to capture a great deal of growth in the airline industry. Per Doug Par...

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by VS11
Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeings 1Q22 Earnings
Replies: 146
Views: 16561

Re: Boeings 1Q22 Earnings

Has anyone done a back of the envelope of what shape Boeing could be in when the sell those some 400 planes already produced? I don't know how many bad quarters the company can continue to post and still survive. Boeing has not been able to make lots of deliveries because the Chinese and the FAA ha...

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by VS11
Fri Apr 08, 2022 1:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit
Replies: 992
Views: 152695

Re: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit

B6 will seek valuation opinions from a couple of investment banks so they can say they're not overpaying. They'll seek opinions from a law firm (or two) that says this can get DOJ approval - if perhaps with limited concessions. They'll craft a public argument about how the added debt is going to be...

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by VS11
Fri Apr 08, 2022 10:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit
Replies: 992
Views: 152695

Re: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit

Does anyone think this could lead into a bidding war? I would assume Frontier would consider raising it's offer? I can't imagine the people at Allegiant are just sitting there watching this without discussing options. I would assume NK board could ask both F9 and B6 to submit final and best offer, ...

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by VS11
Fri Apr 08, 2022 6:02 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit
Replies: 992
Views: 152695

Re: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit

So when could we expect a decision by the NK board now that they are evaluating the B6 offer?

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by VS11
Wed Apr 06, 2022 8:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit
Replies: 992
Views: 152695

Re: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit

And you’re basing this on what exactly? You have route P&L access to know? And it’s not NK’s route network. It’s a combined route network, with the inherent synergies that come. B6's 2021 costs (CASM) are roughly 41% higher than NK's, not adjusted for stage length. Adjusted for stage length and...

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by VS11
Wed Apr 06, 2022 5:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit
Replies: 992
Views: 152695

Re: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit

Does anyone else think B6 is out of their mind for thinking that they can keep NEA if this acquisition is allowed to go through? I feel like they will have to give up some portions of the NEA at the very least. The arguments for the NEA is that it brought more destinations and frequencies without i...

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by VS11
Wed Apr 06, 2022 5:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit
Replies: 992
Views: 152695

Re: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit

Other airlines implementing Basic economy fares doesn’t negate the consumer value provided by NK. Yes, other airlines implemented a basic fare but by eliminating a ULCC competitor frees them up to elevate those fares in a way that wouldn’t be possible if they continued to compete with said ULCC. Al...

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by VS11
Wed Apr 06, 2022 4:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit
Replies: 992
Views: 152695

Re: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit

It would seem that a B6+NK merger is more likely to get DOJ approval than Spirt+Frontier. A merger with Frontier takes the two big players in the ULCC, and combines them into one. Given the lost competition and essentially leaving one large carrier that dominates that market… its hard to argue that...

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by VS11
Wed Apr 06, 2022 3:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit
Replies: 992
Views: 152695

Re: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit

Just because B6 has come in with a higher bid that doesn’t mean it’s a better value to the NK shareholders. Which deal has the potential for real growth and long term profits? Quick cash now or real long term money? It's tough. The Spirit board has a duty to seek out the best available sale price. ...

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by VS11
Wed Apr 06, 2022 2:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit
Replies: 992
Views: 152695

Re: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit

This doesn’t pass the stink test. If this was such a good deal and match for B6 why did they wait for F9 and NK to announce their intent to merge? They could’ve pursued their own deal with NK before now. When F9 and NK announced their merger so many on this board immediately started wondering where...

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by VS11
Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit
Replies: 992
Views: 152695

Re: JetBlue bids 3.6B for Spirit

Smart move by jetBlue - hopefully it works out for them. And who knows, down the road they imbibe Frontier too…

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by VS11
Fri Mar 18, 2022 5:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta in talks to purchase 100 737MAX-10's
Replies: 343
Views: 87327

Re: Delta in talks to purchase 100 737MAX-10's

It is a very logical step.

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