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by kalvado
Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

To prove it safe. and if you go up a few messages Alternatively, mistakes in design and certification flow can be examined, all similar situations in design and certification sequence are brought up and investigated by the third party. Yet alternatively, I will be happy to fly MAX once it is proven...

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by kalvado
Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

You will have to expand on what other safety issues you have uncovered? Because the FAA and Boeing would like to know. This is not criminal process, so "innocent until proven guilty" doesn't apply. Plane is proven safe by the proper certification process. Since Boeing insists they did not...

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by kalvado
Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:09 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Since Boeing insists they did nothing wrong during certification, I conclude that the existing process doesn't guarantee the safety of the airplane, and MAX should be grounded until the new process is designed and implemented. You do realize, what you conclude doesn't matter a whit. It's what the F...

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by kalvado
Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:02 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

It's the other way around. I don't see a reason to unground the plane until it is proven safe. Okay, so let's debate that option, how would you like that to happen, what would you like them to do to make the a/c safe? To prove it safe. and if you go up a few messages Alternatively, mistakes in desi...

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by kalvado
Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:29 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

You will have to expand on what other safety issues you have uncovered? Because the FAA and Boeing would like to know. This is not criminal process, so "innocent until proven guilty" doesn't apply. Plane is proven safe by the proper certification process. Since Boeing insists they did not...

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by kalvado
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

This is getting to be really silly. What you described is political showboating under the guise of safety. Or this is trying to involve politics into purely technical matter. Is that glass half-empty or half-full? Boeing did very little to convince me, Kalvado Q. Public, that MCAS was a strictly is...

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by kalvado
Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

You said a lot more than that. You said: If a bi-partisan agreement can't be reached, someone must be opposed to it. Opposed to the concept of improving the certification process, no. Opposed to coming up with the necessary funding, most definitely. You won't find more than a handful of Democrats w...

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by kalvado
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Discussing this topic with friends and family. I told them to expect the delay to be more about politics than safety. The fix seems pretty straight forward. And how MCAS should had been designed out of the gate. But now Boeing and its customers get to sit around while politics takes its course. I w...

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by kalvado
Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

MCAS and the fix is THE problem with respect to ungrounding the MAX. Says who? Two suspiciously similar crashes are the problem with respect to the grounding, and hence ungrounding of the MAXes. Investigation into those uncovered issues with MAX and now other issues. What other issues? Ones that af...

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by kalvado
Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

MCAS and the fix is THE problem with respect to ungrounding the MAX. That and investigating if there were other "additions" to the MAX vs. the NG that weren't disclosed or properly certified. The entire design does not need to be reviewed an that has not been suggested by any authority. M...

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by kalvado
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Delay for the sake of delay isn't going to do anything for safety. With respect to MCAS 2.0, there are only so many tests you can run. Will it make anything safer if the EASA demands that Boeing flight test every degree of AoA disagree from 5 to whatever the max would be to prove that it works at e...

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by kalvado
Mon Jun 24, 2019 4:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Discussing this topic with friends and family. I told them to expect the delay to be more about politics than safety. The fix seems pretty straight forward. And how MCAS should had been designed out of the gate. But now Boeing and its customers get to sit around while politics takes its course. I w...

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by kalvado
Mon Jun 24, 2019 4:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

It appears that the certification test flight with the FAA has occurred without much publicity. The overview on Boeing's website now states: The software was put through hundreds of hours of analysis, laboratory testing, verification in a simulator and two test flights, including an in-flight certi...

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by kalvado
Sat Jun 22, 2019 2:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How much range is too much?
Replies: 30
Views: 4954

Re: How much range is too much?

As for population centers.. There is a fairly interesting concept of ocean and land hemispheres: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_and_water_hemispheres A lot of population and wealth is concentrated in a part of land hemisphere - North America, Europe. Australia/New Zealand, South America and Sout...

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by kalvado
Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

I'm seeing all this Sully stuff floating around everywhere now. I realize he has a long history as a pilot with time in the military, 30 years as a pilot for US Airways, and obviously the "Miracle on the Hudson" but does he have any history or experience flying 737s or did they just plop ...

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by kalvado
Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

According to Sully. "I recently experienced all these warnings in a 737 MAX flight simulator during recreations of the accident flights. Even knowing what was going to happen, I could see how crews could have run out of time before they could have solved the problems. Prior to these accidents,...

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by kalvado
Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: More details on BOOM SST at Paris. SFO to Toyko in 5.5 hours. First flight in 2020...
Replies: 102
Views: 12334

Re: More details on BOOM SST at Paris. SFO to Toyko in 5.5 hours. First flight in 2020...

The mats does not add up for me. Mach 2.2 at FL600 is close enough to 1260 kts, SFO to NRT should be about 3.5 hrs (4500 nm), the maximum endurance of the aircraft. Why the 5.5 hrs SFO to NRT ? That’s more like Mach 1.4. You may need to add some time for acceleration/climb and deceleration/descent,...

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by kalvado
Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-18/boeing-s-mea-culpa-wins-over-operator-of-crashed-ethiopian-jet One wonders what Boeing have said to Ethiopian such that they are BFFs again suddenly? Ray More than likely he has seen there were mistakes all around including in is pilots' performanc...

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by kalvado
Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: More details on BOOM SST at Paris. SFO to Toyko in 5.5 hours. First flight in 2020...
Replies: 102
Views: 12334

Re: More details on BOOM SST at Paris. SFO to Toyko in 5.5 hours. First flight in 2020...

Title seems misleading. Test flight possibly in 2020 is more accurate. Bet that is very optomistic How exactly is it misleading? Nobody ever said anything about first revenue flight, so why would one get confused? For most discussions over here, "First flight" refers to first airborne tes...

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by kalvado
Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-18/boeing-s-mea-culpa-wins-over-operator-of-crashed-ethiopian-jet One wonders what Boeing have said to Ethiopian such that they are BFFs again suddenly? It should not be hard to see their most important interests are in alignment. FYI the key quote wa...

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by kalvado
Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:32 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: What happens to the broken parts on aircraft after accident investigation is done?
Replies: 12
Views: 1729

Re: What happens to the broken parts on aircraft after accident investigation is done?

exFWAOONW wrote:
Did the NTSB compensate TWA? The plane, and presumably, its wreckage belonged to them, or is it a case of salvage rights?

If they would, the scrap metal rate is the best approximation for those pieces. Less the cost of recovery, of course...

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by kalvado
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters: Boeing seeking to reduce scope, duration of some physical tests for new aircraft
Replies: 14
Views: 4610

Re: Reuters: Boeing seeking to reduce scope, duration of some physical tests for new aircraft

A few years ago one of big problems of 787 was a failure to catch an excessive stress in mechanical simulation. Which doesn't add too much confidence to such plans.

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by kalvado
Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 787 issues with the fire suppression system
Replies: 14
Views: 3336

Re: 787 issues with the fire suppression system

another question.. how unique are those switches? 30 days check periods implies it takes more than a month - possibly few months - to get a replacement installed, which seems kind of long...

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by kalvado
Sat Jun 15, 2019 6:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA 757 hard landing at EWR
Replies: 6
Views: 2915

Re: UA 757 hard landing at EWR

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1424819
Can these threads be merged?
-->

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1424819
Can these threads be merged?

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by kalvado
Sat Jun 15, 2019 6:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
NYC is Class B airspace, everybody is under positive control. There’s no need to “clear the airspace”, your comments are just uninformed nonsense

So there are no emergencies or goarounds in NYC?

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by kalvado
Sat Jun 15, 2019 6:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

There will be a NNC to follow with MCAS disabled. Probably something similar to the Yaw Damper disengaged NNC except with parameters to avoid the need for MCAS. For reference, the Yaw Damper disengaged NNC states: An instruction in the MCAS disengaged NNC would probably be something like: Do not ex...

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by kalvado
Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United 757-200 hard landing at EWR
Replies: 158
Views: 34008

Re: What’s the emergency at EWR?

Have no idea, but just noticed a bunch of widebodies from europe holding overhead, UAL 169 from VCE is landing in ALB right now...

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by kalvado
Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

trauha wrote:
Is the determination with which Boeing is fighting unionization, any indication of what it cares about ?

With what I see around concerning unionised workers, this is a very good sign showing that Boeing actually cares.

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by kalvado
Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Did anyone you ever have a need to write lots of posts calling for better pilot training around the world for pilots UNTIL Max crashed ? Be honest ? Remind us again of the Airbus A330 design issues in the Air France fatal crash. Frankly speaking, there are no complex systems without flaws. The diff...

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by kalvado
Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

I would tend to think FAA has little say in this Boeing fiasco. It would unground them day after grounding. However, Boeing wants plane flying in all countries simultaneously. Problem with that theory is that those numbers per some countries may be very small, how many frames does Lion Air have ver...

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by kalvado
Fri Jun 14, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

how is the FAA going to accept a situation of AOA disagree that disables MCAS? planecane has the answer. It will be just one more system that has rules for its use and procedures to follow when it is disabled. Pretty much every system on the airplane may - and does - fail once in a while. Certifica...

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by kalvado
Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

IF the FAA deemed the 737 Max too unstable to be used as a passenger aircraft and requested Boeing to come with a solution that later became the MCAS, how is the FAA going to accept a situation of AOA disagree that disables MCAS? There will be a NNC to follow with MCAS disabled. Probably something ...

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by kalvado
Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

I don't disagree and that is why procedures and training must be developed to deal with the situation. The MCAS off NNC could be something as simple as slow to flaps 1 speed and set flaps 1 and divert to nearest airport. MCAS seems to have been determined not to be needed with flaps deployed since ...

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by kalvado
Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Perhaps the Paris Air Show will have Boeing make announcements of a tentative schedule for RTS for the 737MAX. Almost certainly not. I just posted a statement yesterday from an FAA spokesman saying they will not put a timeline on the return to service. Boeing almost certainly would not risk damagin...

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by kalvado
Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

The only times one would possibly need MCAS and not have it available is either: 1) There is an AoA disagree that disables the system. This will now have a warning message and some NNC procedure to follow. Not so fast. AoA failure and MCAS disabling are a relatively frequent scenario to require dou...

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by kalvado
Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

The only times one would possibly need MCAS and not have it available is either: 1) There is an AoA disagree that disables the system. This will now have a warning message and some NNC procedure to follow. Not so fast. AoA failure and MCAS disabling are a relatively frequent scenario to require dou...

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by kalvado
Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

As for engine failure at takeoff, at least from the formal perspective, what is the probability of failure within those 3-5 critical minutes? Optimistically, I assume less than 1e-6 - although 1 in 100k hours for ETOPS180 means just about 1e-6. If you will, there are 2.5k flights daily at ATL and 2...

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by kalvado
Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

What kind of fatal error engine shutdown can cause? Shutting down wrong engine is surely one thing; and it have happened before. You probably know better than me what are precautions to avoid that. What else can be done what cannot be undone? What other actions are critical to be performed right aw...

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by kalvado
Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

We would have a hard time justifying a human based control having a PFD of less than 0.1. If the safety case has a low initiating event frequency, multiple layers of protection, and you end up with an acceptable residual risk then that’s fine - in other words, in the NG case, people can be a long w...

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by kalvado
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumour: 777X First Flight Likely Delayed Due GE9X Issues
Replies: 186
Views: 31859

Re: Rumour: 777X First Flight Likely Delayed to Year End Due GE9X Issues

And there are plenty of reasons 779 is not A380: o 20% fewer passengers than A380 so easier to fill without trashing yields 787-9 has fewer passengers than 779 so easier to fill without trashing yields A321 787-9 has fewer passengers than 787-9 so easier to fill without trashing yields .... ..... B...

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by kalvado
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumour: 777X First Flight Likely Delayed Due GE9X Issues
Replies: 186
Views: 31859

Re: Rumour: 777X First Flight Likely Delayed to Year End Due GE9X Issues

And there are plenty of reasons 779 is not A380: o 20% fewer passengers than A380 so easier to fill without trashing yields 787-9 has fewer passengers than 779 so easier to fill without trashing yields A321 787-9 has fewer passengers than 787-9 so easier to fill without trashing yields .... ..... B...

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by kalvado
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

The thumb switch has priority over automatic trim. If what you say is likely then using manual electric trim wouldn't be part of the procedure on the NG or earlier. The way the procedure is written, it seems to me that Boeing believes most runaway stabilizer events would be caused by automatic trim...

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by kalvado
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

The Software patch is there, it's only the certification that takes longer then Boeing expected. I think that the technical issues of the MAX and the issues surrounding the certification are 2 different processes. The fix for the software is there, and will probably be working as it should making t...

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by kalvado
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

This is not true. First, it is possible and likely that the thumb switch can be used to electrically trim before cutting off electric trim. This is part of the NG (and MAX) procedure. Second, although described differently the "roller coaster" procedure is still in the NG training manual....

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by kalvado
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Preferably with pilots that are trained properly and can handle runaway stabilizer on both. Unless trim is accomplished only with the manual trim wheel, the incidence of runaway stabilizer will never be zero. If I'm on the 1 in 100,000,000 flight where it happens, I pray the pilots have the skill a...

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by kalvado
Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

So we need the incidence or having to use trim on Max 737 to be as low as on the NG to be able to maintain safety levels? Preferably with pilots that are trained properly and can handle runaway stabilizer on both. Unless trim is accomplished only with the manual trim wheel, the incidence of runaway...

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by kalvado
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:37 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA Will Now Hold Flights for Connects
Replies: 68
Views: 9675

Re: UA Will Now Hold Flights for Connects

depending on implementation, this can become the greatest thing since sliced bread, a total nightmare, or anything in between. Departure hold has to be accommodated either by delay down the line or by block time engineering. If it is about short delays, when pax run to the gate to see the pushback, ...

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by kalvado
Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

I believe A320 fuselage is about same size and handles same size engines as MAX without extra issues. I think you are nitpicking. You know what the problems is. Nader talks to masses and he needs to simplify the problem to the level of general folk. Problem is with meaningless use of word, which co...

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by kalvado
Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Can you explain how a plane with engines too big for the fuselage that needs software to fix issues with stability etc Can be as safe as the same plane with the right sized engines for the fuselage that doesnt need software to fix stability issues etc Somehow 737NG, with engines so big that nacelle...

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by kalvado
Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3293
Views: 326762

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Can you explain how a plane with engines too big for the fuselage that needs software to fix issues with stability etc Can be as safe as the same plane with the right sized engines for the fuselage that doesnt need software to fix stability issues etc Somehow 737NG, with engines so big that nacelle...

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