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by Taxi645
Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:20 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2022
Replies: 210
Views: 53628

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2022

Some times it is ok to leave a bit of the market to your competitor. New wing, wingbox on 787 would have been so much effort to gain just 300 more orders? Not, sure that makes business sense. I think your estimate of about 300 additional sales compared to the 77X is quite close to the mark. However...

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by Taxi645
Thu Apr 28, 2022 6:33 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2022
Replies: 210
Views: 53628

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2022

at this point in time Boeing as a company would be better served by a MTOW increase and a larger wing for the 787-10 and top of that a further enforced wingbox for a 290-300T 787-11 and 787-10F than continuing down the 77X path. Airlines will prefer the superior CASM to capacity ratio and on top of...

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by Taxi645
Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2022
Replies: 210
Views: 53628

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2022

Apart from the competition of a potential A350NEO, as is known a larger air plane needs a sufficient CASM advantage over smaller competition. The CASM advantage over even the current 787-9/10 and A350-900 is too small, let alone updated versions of it. Also a 290-300T 787-11 would for most airlines ...

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by Taxi645
Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:01 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2022
Replies: 210
Views: 53628

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2022

I'd foresee more of a renaissance of the ME3 due to new oil and gas wealth. The western world turning away from Russia means it will return to the Middle East driving prices and budgets of middle eastern airlines. They will have all the money to buy the latest and greatest stuff and expand airports...

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by Taxi645
Wed Apr 27, 2022 9:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2022
Replies: 210
Views: 53628

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2022

To me it feels a bit similar to the position Airbus was in with the A340-500/600 a while back. You went down the wrong lane, but how do you justify so much money, resources and effort put in for nothing when you cancel it? Mostly you don't, you just keep going and hope for the best. At that same st...

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by Taxi645
Tue Apr 26, 2022 1:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2022
Replies: 210
Views: 53628

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2022

I've said before, the 77X bet was, in hind sight (also due to MCAS and COVID), probably the wrong gamble: 1 There is too little time left between it's launch and that of a potential A350NEO (where it can't really effectively compete with), to make any return on investment. 2 It is withholding the f...

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by Taxi645
Tue Apr 26, 2022 8:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2022
Replies: 210
Views: 53628

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2022

I've said before, the 77X bet was, in hind sight (also due to MCAS and COVID), probably the wrong gamble: 1 There is too little time left between it's launch and that of a potential A350NEO (where it can't really effectively compete with), to make any return on investment. 2 It is withholding the fu...

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by Taxi645
Thu Mar 31, 2022 7:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Analyzing The Airbus A380’s Premature End
Replies: 226
Views: 55676

Re: Analyzing The Airbus A380’s Premature End

I have a question regarding fuselage width' relation to induced drag. If you widen a fuselage within a fixed span as Matt has done in his proposal, one would expect a negative effect on induced drag as less span is left for the wing itself. So more lift is created from a shorter wing (the added lift...

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by Taxi645
Thu Mar 31, 2022 7:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Analyzing The Airbus A380’s Premature End
Replies: 226
Views: 55676

Re: Analyzing The Airbus A380’s Premature End

I did some calculations on how the A380 would have performed with nominal 787 engines. For this I ran my model with the A380 with standard engines rated with cruise SFC of 0.525lb/hr/lb over a near spec range flight. Then the SFC was dropped to 0.5 to represent a 787 technology level engine. Finall...

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by Taxi645
Fri Mar 25, 2022 8:40 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2022
Replies: 310
Views: 65461

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

What would it take to get Airbus to pull the trigger on the 500 program? How many aircraft orders & how much money in the way of deposits would it take to get things rolling? I think, ideally, Airbus would like to hold off the 500 as long as possible (despite of outspoken demand) until producti...

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by Taxi645
Fri Mar 11, 2022 5:08 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Lockheed reveals new LMXT refueling tanker
Replies: 334
Views: 44425

Re: Lockheed reveals new LMXT refueling tanker

Well recent events might have brought the US and EU closer on the milifary and geopolitical front again. Airbus tanker and some A400M's for the US and new strategic transport from the US for the EU. https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1467371 Efficiency in scale and R&D and ...

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by Taxi645
Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?
Replies: 330
Views: 65544

Re: Airbus pushed for A220-500, replacing A320CEO / 737-800.. ?

IMHO, Airbus bought the CS Series to make sure neither Boeing nor the Chinese got it. One can view the continuing stream of losses on the A220 as insurance premiums: the A320 family is protected from threats below (in seat count). If you can't built enough planes to fullfil demand and you are selli...

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by Taxi645
Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:21 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: NBA single aisle 2023/24 launch EIS 2028
Replies: 155
Views: 31913

Re: Leeham: NBA single aisle 2023/24 launch EIS 2028

This fuselage design with the lowered floor will, within the same wetted area of the A320 series, have an aisle wide enough (with 737 wide seats) to pass each other for very fast boarding. Thanks for an excellent post, Taxi645. I also think this (with your specifications) could be a good way forwar...

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by Taxi645
Sun Feb 20, 2022 3:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: NBA single aisle 2023/24 launch EIS 2028
Replies: 155
Views: 31913

Re: Leeham: NBA single aisle 2023/24 launch EIS 2028

I'll shamelessly continue to promote the wide single aisle proposal. Just wanted to say Keesje much earlier did work out a wider single aisle proposal. The difference is this uses the extra width of a circular fuselage (like the MC21) but a lower floor to get to the required width for a passing ais...

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by Taxi645
Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:28 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: NBA single aisle 2023/24 launch EIS 2028
Replies: 155
Views: 31913

Re: Leeham: NBA single aisle 2023/24 launch EIS 2028

I'll shamelessly continue to promote the wide single aisle proposal. Just wanted to say Keesje much earlier did work out a wider single aisle proposal. The difference is this uses the extra width of a circular fuselage (like the MC21) but a lower floor to get to the required width for a passing aisl...

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by Taxi645
Fri Feb 18, 2022 9:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: NBA single aisle 2023/24 launch EIS 2028
Replies: 155
Views: 31913

Re: Leeham: NBA single aisle 2023/24 launch EIS 2028

I'm hoping for a small widebody as well just so its something new and interesting. This article is just speculation. The funny thing is that at about 29" in aisle width a SA of the same capacity takes up the same floor space as 2 at 17-18" as it would be shorter at 7W (16.66% more seats p...

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by Taxi645
Wed Feb 16, 2022 10:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2022
Replies: 310
Views: 65461

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

I suspect we are in between two rates announcements. The last announced rate target was 14/months. I expect an updated rate announcement perhaps this year already. Perhaps along with a A220-500 launch, but not necessarily. As you say even without the 500 the rate is becoming the bottleneck. But the...

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by Taxi645
Wed Feb 16, 2022 8:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: NBA single aisle 2023/24 launch EIS 2028
Replies: 155
Views: 31913

Re: Leeham: NBA single aisle 2023/24 launch EIS 2028

I would suspect something along these line: https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1465935#p23056031 With choice between a passing aisle mainly for the shoter range version and wider seats for the longer range. Something Airbus can't offer with the A320. Your proposed cross section...

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by Taxi645
Wed Feb 16, 2022 8:28 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2022
Replies: 310
Views: 65461

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

I didn't even have JetBlue on my radar as a possible order (this makes the 2nd 2022 A220 successful sales campaign that blindsided me). To think, I thought the excitement would start with the summer airshow. This year is Farnborough: https://www.farnboroughairshow.com/fia2022/ Let's see the leasing...

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by Taxi645
Wed Feb 16, 2022 3:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2022
Replies: 310
Views: 65461

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

lightsaber wrote:
After in service data, they have bought 30 more A223s. That is a great indicator. It gives creadance to the hope of top off orders from other A220 operators.
Lightsaber


Not only that. It gives airlines that are considering the A220 reason to take another good look.

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by Taxi645
Tue Feb 15, 2022 12:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: NBA single aisle 2023/24 launch EIS 2028
Replies: 155
Views: 31913

Re: Leeham: NBA single aisle 2023/24 launch EIS 2028

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1465935#p23056031

With choice between a passing aisle mainly for the shoter range version and wider seats for the longer range. Something Airbus can't offer with the A320.
-->

I would suspect something along these line:

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1465935#p23056031

With choice between a passing aisle mainly for the shoter range version and wider seats for the longer range. Something Airbus can't offer with the A320.

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by Taxi645
Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Discussion on Potential 777XF Specs
Replies: 489
Views: 54552

Re: Discussion on Potential 777XF Specs

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1456489&p=22594551
-->

Well, seemed they went a bit longer on the 8 afterall:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1456489&p=22594551

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by Taxi645
Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Airbus and Quebec invest a further $1.2B in the A220 program
Replies: 145
Views: 23531

Re: A220 Program Seeks Further Taxpayer Investment

Well I suppose some peoples enthusiasm for the A220 needs to be counter balanced....

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by Taxi645
Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10
Replies: 401
Views: 68298

Re: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10

Well - you still haven't explained why the Ultrafan would be 350 only, other than Airbus would finance it. Effectively that would mean Rolls is forgoing any future 787 orders. That's a big thing to give up. The deal would be; in return for Airbus assistance in finance they would get a few years (4-...

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by Taxi645
Sun Jan 23, 2022 9:29 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2022
Replies: 310
Views: 65461

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Something I haven't seen discussed in this or last years sales campaign thread is sales price. The notion seems to be that currently Airbus is losing money on every A220 sold and only after production has sufficiently increased in efficiency the start making a profit on each sales. Airbus currently ...

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by Taxi645
Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing and Airbus slowly gravitating towards single cross-section WB product ranges?
Replies: 51
Views: 9607

Re: Boeing and Airbus slowly gravitating towards single cross-section WB product ranges?

There's a very big problem with moving towards such simplified fleets. That being: what happens if a type gets grounded? Fleet simplification improves economics, but in a worst case scenario, it could result in the long term grounding of a substantial segment of a fleet. Diversification allows airl...

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by Taxi645
Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing and Airbus slowly gravitating towards single cross-section WB product ranges?
Replies: 51
Views: 9607

Re: Boeing and Airbus slowly gravitating towards single cross-section WB product ranges?

I disagree strongly. Going forward Airbus will have the largest gap in their line up between the A321 and the A359. We will see a new generation of engines on the A350 making it even more capable making the gap even bigger. Yes we might see a stretched A321 or a rewing or even a replacement but I a...

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by Taxi645
Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing and Airbus slowly gravitating towards single cross-section WB product ranges?
Replies: 51
Views: 9607

Boeing and Airbus slowly gravitating towards single cross-section WB product ranges?

Boeing and Airbus slowly gravitating towards single cross-section WB product ranges? Are we seeing a slow but steady evolution of Boeing’s and Airbus’s widebody passenger ranges into a single cross-section? The following passenger widebody planes are not for sale anymore: A300/A310, the 767, the A3...

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by Taxi645
Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10
Replies: 401
Views: 68298

Re: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10

Further expanding on why Airbus would launch a A350NEO: I think most will agree that it is most likely that Boeing will be the first to do a new NB cleansheet. Airbus then will have to respond. Would Airbus want to respond to a cleansheet Boeing NB with an equal situation in the widebody segment or...

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by Taxi645
Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10
Replies: 401
Views: 68298

Re: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10

I could not edit my post any more but as a further explanation: If you allocate $3 billion of that $10 billion to the "1050", then you have $7 billion left for addressing part of the A350 that competes more head to head with the 787. Sure $7 billion is a lot more than $1 or $2 billion lead...

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by Taxi645
Thu Jan 20, 2022 9:32 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10
Replies: 401
Views: 68298

Re: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10

Very simply you are not comparing Apples to Apples. I'm not comparing apples to apples because it is not my intention to compare apples to apples (not everything in life is). As you could have understood from my earlier post, it is a possible sequence of decisions and events that identifies a possi...

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by Taxi645
Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10
Replies: 401
Views: 68298

Re: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10

I have no doubt RR/Airbus will PiP. The difference is it enables 787-10 missions. For the A350, it improves economics and ULH, but not really any new missions. As already noted, no new engine. There is no business case to destroy the TrentXWB economies of scale and for RR to spend $10+ billion USD ...

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by Taxi645
Mon Jan 17, 2022 4:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10
Replies: 401
Views: 68298

Re: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10

Sometimes I hate the western preference of debate over dialogue... I'm not going to cover off every possible avenue of misunderstanding of what I'm saying just because people are more motivated to (dis)proof a point rather than to make an effort to read and understand what someone has actually been ...

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by Taxi645
Mon Jan 17, 2022 3:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10
Replies: 401
Views: 68298

Re: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10

How GE could acheive 10% in ten years: 1. 3.5: 1 GTF, about 6.5% fuel burn reduction 2. Higher match # high pressure compressor (needs better bearings and seals), about 1% fuel burn reduction 3. Fan improvements, about 0.2%(yes, just a fraction of a percent) 4. CMC inlet guide vanes to high turbine...

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by Taxi645
Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10
Replies: 401
Views: 68298

Re: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10

AFAIK this is these are the EU blend requirements from mid 2021: "Starting in 2025, the aviation fuel made available to EU airports should contain 2% SAF, increasing to 5% by 2030, 32% by 2040 and 63% by 2050." https://skynrg.com/news-and-inspiration/expert-opinions/a-summary-of-the-propo...

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by Taxi645
Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10
Replies: 401
Views: 68298

Re: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10

I think RR designs excellent engines. Unfortunately, until fuel is back over $140/bbl, no one will develop a new widebody or new widebody engine, in my opinion. Lightsaber" The big question is how fast will SAF fuels costs drop and what will the required percentages be over time? $140 could be...

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by Taxi645
Sat Jan 15, 2022 5:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10
Replies: 401
Views: 68298

Re: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10

Yes, and to do anything but the low hanging fruit they will need a huge financial investment to make it happen. This won't happen any time soon since the long haul sector of the airline industry is sucking wind (see what I did there?) for the last two years and will need several years of positive c...

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by Taxi645
Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:29 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: EU SATOC - Strategic Air Transport for Outsized Cargo
Replies: 88
Views: 8558

Re: EU SATOC - Strategic Air Transport for Outsized Cargo

I agree but you'd have to have the political reform now. Belgium and Netherlands have gotten rid of their MBTs because they "don't need them". Yet, Russia still has thousands. There has indeed been a lot of naivety in the post cold war period and even now national politicians don't dare t...

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by Taxi645
Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:01 am
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: EU SATOC - Strategic Air Transport for Outsized Cargo
Replies: 88
Views: 8558

Re: EU SATOC - Strategic Air Transport for Outsized Cargo

So basically, you want us to bail out the EU because they didn't have the foresight to buy hardly any C17s during all the years that they were in production? In the meantime, for the next 15-25 years, we're short of strategic airlift, something that we use more than anyone else. It indeed it would'...

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by Taxi645
Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:45 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: EU SATOC - Strategic Air Transport for Outsized Cargo
Replies: 88
Views: 8558

Re: EU SATOC - Strategic Air Transport for Outsized Cargo

As part of that deal the time to that point could perhaps be bridged with say 40 C17's from US inventory and in return say 80 A400M's to compensate and cover part of the C17 capability then missing at the USAF. Why would the USAF want to buy 80 A400s? That's almost as many as the major Airbus partn...

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by Taxi645
Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:17 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: EU SATOC - Strategic Air Transport for Outsized Cargo
Replies: 88
Views: 8558

Re: EU SATOC - Strategic Air Transport for Outsized Cargo

It would be easier to restart the 757 line, at least the buildings still exist and it is somewhat similar to the 737. I recall he government didn't pay Boeing to store the tooling, all that is gone, the buildings are gone, everyone that worked on it are spread here and far. All the contracts are lo...

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by Taxi645
Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:05 am
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: EU SATOC - Strategic Air Transport for Outsized Cargo
Replies: 88
Views: 8558

Re: EU SATOC - Strategic Air Transport for Outsized Cargo

Say C-17 production could be restarted, what if a deal along the following lines was closed: It would be easier to restart the 757 line, at least the buildings still exist and it is somewhat similar to the 737. I recall he government didn't pay Boeing to store the tooling, all that is gone, the bui...

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by Taxi645
Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:16 am
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: EU SATOC - Strategic Air Transport for Outsized Cargo
Replies: 88
Views: 8558

Re: EU SATOC - Strategic Air Transport for Outsized Cargo

Say C-17 production could be restarted, what if a deal along the following lines was closed: - EU (along with a separate US order) order ~70 C-17's. - In turn the US order ~140 A400M Advantages being: - Both the EU and US strengthening their combined strategic and tactical airlift capability. - Very...

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by Taxi645
Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10
Replies: 401
Views: 68298

Re: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10

I think I recall that the wing is good for 280T - I think that came from Lightsaber? You have what the wingbox can bare and what provides efficiency at the higher end of TOW capability. It may be able to carry 280T, but doesn't mean you will be competitive against a 65m wing with significant wingle...

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by Taxi645
Thu Jan 06, 2022 4:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10
Replies: 401
Views: 68298

Re: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10

I think I recall that the wing is good for 280T - I think that came from Lightsaber? You have what the wingbox can bare and what provides efficiency at the higher end of TOW capability. It may be able to carry 280T, but doesn't mean you will be competitive against a 65m wing with significant wingle...

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by Taxi645
Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10
Replies: 401
Views: 68298

Re: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10

It also pushes the 787-10 closer to the 777-200ER range that BA & UA are both interested in. BA has to be interested in the -10 . It will be able to cover all their current 777-200ER routes they have in operation at lower cost. With the A350-1000 being able to replace the older 777-300ER it cou...

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by Taxi645
Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:43 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10
Replies: 401
Views: 68298

Re: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10

Economics on the engines is why you aren't hearing about it. I expect they are still paying off the costs in designing and certifying the engines for the 787. Certainly not looking to dump a billion or more into capturing the market they already have. That said, continuous improvements that can be ...

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by Taxi645
Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10
Replies: 401
Views: 68298

Re: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10

Again why are we hearing about a HGW version (which is obviously good news against the A350), but nothing about future proof engines? It's about the right time in the 787 life cycle to start hearing rumblings about it, it would fit in with the 77W replacement cycle, the 787 lower weight could make e...

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by Taxi645
Wed Jan 05, 2022 10:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10
Replies: 401
Views: 68298

Re: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10

https://leehamnews.com/2022/01/05/hotr- ... more-38199

According to LNA:
- 787-9HGW as well
- no increase in empty weight or thrust.

Seems MTOW increase will be limited but welcome none the less.
-->

https://leehamnews.com/2022/01/05/hotr- ... more-38199

According to LNA:
- 787-9HGW as well
- no increase in empty weight or thrust.

Seems MTOW increase will be limited but welcome none the less.

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by Taxi645
Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10
Replies: 401
Views: 68298

Re: Boeing confirms higher gross weight 787-10

I find it very intesting that after the earlier hugely successful US made narrowbody GTF engine there is absolutely zero talk about any US WB GTF. All this when the 787 is moving into it's re-engining window and is ideally position to optimize it's payload range capability. Furthermore the 787 and ...

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