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by Midwestindy
Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 934
Views: 157686

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton1/2020/07/03/despite-cuts-american-airlines-still-largest-in-los-angeles-for-international-long-haul-after-covid-19-response/#24c11cd26373 "American is perceived as having given up on Los Angeles and dismantling its international hub there after deciding t...

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by Midwestindy
Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 934
Views: 157686

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

https://twitter.com/RossFeinstein
-->

AA posted its busiest day by a wide margin yesterday, around 35% of LYs traffic, but 9% higher than July 1.

Still operating on June schedule levels for the next few days
https://twitter.com/RossFeinstein

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by Midwestindy
Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes
Replies: 194
Views: 20686

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

LAX was not a strong performer domestically. Those west coast stuff were hugely unprofitable. Aa is cutting back on all the weaker performing stations. That include mia lax phx and nyc. I don’t know why this is so hard to see. You throw around "hugely unprofitable" a lot, and in this case...

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by Midwestindy
Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:04 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes
Replies: 194
Views: 20686

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Lol....I told you LAX would be cut. Without TPAC, the importance of LAX drops considerably. With their TPAC experiment gone, expect less feeder flights into LAX as AA focuses on their domestic network next. Funny, aren't you the one who said AA would cut LAX down to DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PH...

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by Midwestindy
Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes
Replies: 194
Views: 20686

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Key takeaways here are less int'l from LAX, and decreasing long-thin routes Should be interesting to watch, especially SEA-PVG CLT down to 3 int'l routes it looks like http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2020/American-Airlines-Resets-International-Network-for-Remainder-of-2020-Through-Summer-2021-...

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by Midwestindy
Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes
Replies: 194
Views: 20686

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Well there we have it, this seems like an obvious move for AA in LAX: International has been a struggle for AA in LAX, however now it is much easier to cut knowing your competitors will likely follow suit & while also knowing that international demand will be suppressed for potentially years to...

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by Midwestindy
Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:55 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes
Replies: 194
Views: 20686

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Maybe someone with more knowledge of LAX can guide me here: Would AA be able to use any of the gates that were being used for Asia & other long-haul, for additional domestic routes/frequencies? From AA pre-covid statements, it appeared that there wasn't much room to grow domestically otherwise ...

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by Midwestindy
Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 212
Views: 22273

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Interesting article: https://i.imgur.com/vDiyyqF.jpg https://forwardkeys.com/us-air-travel-rebounds-with-an-increase-of-travel-for-independence-day/ How could it be so close to normal with capacity reduced so much as it has been over last year? Is this just a proxy data for actual passenger numbers...

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by Midwestindy
Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes
Replies: 194
Views: 20686

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Maybe someone with more knowledge of LAX can guide me here: Would AA be able to use any of the gates that were being used for Asia & other long-haul, for additional domestic routes/frequencies? From AA pre-covid statements, it appeared that there wasn't much room to grow domestically otherwise u...

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by Midwestindy
Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes
Replies: 194
Views: 20686

American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Key takeaways here are less int'l from LAX, and decreasing long-thin routes Should be interesting to watch, especially SEA-PVG CLT down to 3 int'l routes it looks like http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2020/American-Airlines-Resets-International-Network-for-Remainder-of-2020-Through-Summer-2021-O...

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by Midwestindy
Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:07 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 212
Views: 22273

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

"Sources tell me airlines expect a busy July 4th holiday but are seeing an increase in cancellations for the holiday weekend and softening bookings further into July as Covid cases soar" https://twitter.com/krisvancleave/status/1278084882883903489?s=20 "I had noticed that this weekend...

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by Midwestindy
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons
Replies: 224
Views: 34168

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Finally broke 25% on Monday, with 25.5% of LYs traffic

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by Midwestindy
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 212
Views: 22273

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Hard for me to believe that most of the bookings are done for July when the close in fares are as low as what I am seeing. This would seem to contradict a lot of what we have been hearing up until now. Remember, capacity is doubling and bookings are flat for Weeks now. Jonnyc just posted a chart wh...

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by Midwestindy
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 212
Views: 22273

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

It's been just about 4 days since the tr-state quarantine news came out, so not all of last week would've been equally affected. I think a lot of the bookings have been really up close. ULCCs added a bunch of capacities with the expectations that they will be able to continue to get those planes fi...

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by Midwestindy
Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:33 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Why are AA and UA weak in Africa?
Replies: 18
Views: 1034

Re: Why are AA and UA weak in Africa?

The problem AA has is little O&D at their hubs, & Hub scale to make a thin route to Sub-Saharan Africa work. For example the largest markets to Nigeria are ATL, BWI, ORD, DFW, IAH, LAX, JFK, MSY, MCO, & IAD. PHL & MIA are the logical points for destinations outside of CMN, but neithe...

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by Midwestindy
Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 817
Views: 75327

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2020

Anyone know if AA BNA-LAX was originally 3x daily?

I'm seeing it 3x Thu, Fri, Sat starting in October, and 3x daily starting in April. Is that new?

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by Midwestindy
Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: OAG Changes 6/28/2020:CALMING SKIES;AC Cuts BDL;AS Adds DLG/AKN;B6 Chops August;TK Back to ATL/BOS?;UA Moves PQI to IAD
Replies: 68
Views: 11914

Re: OAG Changes 6/28/2020:CALMING SKIES;AC Cuts BDL;AS Adds DLG/AKN;B6 Chops August;TK Back to ATL/BOS?;UA Moves PQI to

Wide-scale parking of non-widebody aircraft made sense in April when LFs were in single digits & CARES act funding hadn't kicked in, not when airlines are filling 60-70% of planes and labor is paid for and oil is cheap. Which U.S. carriers are reporting systemwide load factors of 60-70%, please...

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by Midwestindy
Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: OAG Changes 6/28/2020:CALMING SKIES;AC Cuts BDL;AS Adds DLG/AKN;B6 Chops August;TK Back to ATL/BOS?;UA Moves PQI to IAD
Replies: 68
Views: 11914

Re: OAG Changes 6/28/2020:CALMING SKIES;AC Cuts BDL;AS Adds DLG/AKN;B6 Chops August;TK Back to ATL/BOS?;UA Moves PQI to

I’m very surprised there isn’t a slew of European route cuts announced. We’re only 4 weeks away from August and as it stands Europeans aren’t allowed into USA & Americans aren’t allowed into Europe & yet there’s still multiple daily Europe - USA flights planned. From DUB alone there’s daily...

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by Midwestindy
Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 934
Views: 157686

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Welp the thread got deleted twice, so I'll try and post it here. I thought I cleared up the issues the first time but alas: Vasu did an interview with Plane Business here are the highlights: -Outside of NYC & LA (their smallest hubs), the rest of the network generates a 112% revenue premium on t...

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by Midwestindy
Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 212
Views: 22273

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Allegiant Air had an industry analyst call last week, shockingly, bookings for them are only down 10-20%

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by Midwestindy
Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 607
Views: 59662

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

IND is opening the economy lot back up, as well as opening up more stores for July in response to increased travel. https://www.ind.com/about/media/media-releases/traveler-updates-on-coronavirus-response Based on most recent numbers, IND had 4,200 TSA screenings on June 5 compared to 2,568 on May 23...

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by Midwestindy
Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 607
Views: 59662

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

The Reserve funds have been spent .. I don’t think Indiana will borrow money to fly to Europe they will have to borrow to pay the unemployment claims ... 2024 or later Mabe it will come back Almost A “ normal schedule “ for UA in Aug so things are moving in the right direction Did you read any of t...

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by Midwestindy
Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 621
Views: 60938

Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2020

AS IND-STL is back starting July 2nd-31st, should nearly bridge the gap til WN starts

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by Midwestindy
Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK
Replies: 304
Views: 53250

Re: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK

https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1276 ... 92928?s=20
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"DP expects 20-30% less FAs needed in Oct, 10-20% less needed for next summer. Also admitted to "No furloughs" goal being much more difficult to achieve than he originally hoped"

https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1276 ... 92928?s=20

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by Midwestindy
Thu Jun 25, 2020 10:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK
Replies: 304
Views: 53250

Re: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK

If the crisis continues into mid to late 2021 I can see a bailout like the auto industry got in 2009, and perhaps the Government taking stakes in the airlines like they did with GM. I highly doubt the taxpayers will go for it Unions are asking Congress for an extension of the PSP through March 2021...

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by Midwestindy
Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 607
Views: 59662

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

I don’t think IND-CDG will ever return as the State of Indiana is now broke they spent their 2billion dollar reserve funds in Covid 19 expenses .. and the Unemployment payments are underfunded. So unless a private company can subsidize the flight there will be no state money spent On it Incentives ...

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by Midwestindy
Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 607
Views: 59662

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2020

I had a random question about IND, so I thought this would be the place to ask. Let’s say that DL’s IND-CDG route resumes and eventually uses equipment other than a 763: 764, A330, etc. Or BA comes with a 787. Are gates A4 and A5 ready to handle aircraft larger than a 767? A 763 has a significantly...

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by Midwestindy
Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 934
Views: 157686

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1275907848594128896
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AA Loads yesterday, incredibly high given the circumstances, and the cap of 85%

CLT 76% (international only 51%)
ORD 72% (international only 31%)
DFW 75% (international only 45%)

Tuesdays are reduced schedules however
https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1275907848594128896

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by Midwestindy
Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 934
Views: 157686

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Big announcement today about NY/NY/CT requiring a 14 day quarantine for flyers from the state of FL (among other states such as TX and SC). Although most of this is probably "self policing" I do see it putting a big crimp on AA and FL. Lots of paxs going to FL come from these 3 states. I ...

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by Midwestindy
Wed Jun 24, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020
Replies: 221
Views: 29325

Re: Allegiant News and Discussion Thread - 2020

http://ir.allegiantair.com/static-files/4863c7ea-44ab-4be7-be18-6b26dd129677 "Our economic justification for flying flights was based on the flight contributing positively to our cash balances, namely covering the direct expenses of fuel and airport costs" "In the coming months we exp...

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by Midwestindy
Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 212
Views: 22273

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

One thing to keep in mind is that things can change really fast in COVID. I remember back in early March, New York went from life going on like normal to nothing open in the space of a week. And I just saw home as cases and positive rate going up everyday. That looks to be what's happening right no...

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by Midwestindy
Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 212
Views: 22273

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Image
Image

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by Midwestindy
Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020
Replies: 2372
Views: 407290

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Q. Please explain why American and Southwest are flying heavier schedules than United. What do they know that we don't know? A. All airlines see a very consistent set of data around demand, so our competitors are not seeing anything that we cannot. We may differ from them in how we view the recover...

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by Midwestindy
Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 934
Views: 157686

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

LGA-SRQ starts July 11, Saturday only https://www.sarasotamagazine.com/news-and-profiles/2020/06/airlines-bring-back-add-flights-at-srq-airport I thought they had ran this before, but I guess not Both LAA and LUS have run LGA/TPA before. I can't remember if any of them ever tried LGA/RSW. Since aro...

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by Midwestindy
Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020
Replies: 284
Views: 40277

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

https://investor.alaskaair.com/static-f ... 34a7d7a1f2
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50% of ASMs for August
Image

https://investor.alaskaair.com/static-f ... 34a7d7a1f2

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by Midwestindy
Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons
Replies: 224
Views: 34168

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

FWIW, we did not hit 600,000 over the Friday, Saturday, Sunday weekend. We came somewhat close (590,456 on Sunday being the highest number). I'm not trying to be negative, but there may be a cause for concern. For 13 consecutive days, from June 4 to June 16, our week-over-week increase was 21.8% or...

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by Midwestindy
Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 212
Views: 22273

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

"Neither carrier (WN or G4) reported a demand impact from rising coronavirus cases, despite their exposure to Florida," according to BofA https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/20/06/16334594/bofa-bullish-on-allegiant-southwest-says-leisure-travel-recovering Despite this cl...

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by Midwestindy
Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 934
Views: 157686

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

https://www.sarasotamagazine.com/news-a ... rq-airport

I thought they had ran this before, but I guess not
-->

LGA-SRQ starts July 11, Saturday only
https://www.sarasotamagazine.com/news-a ... rq-airport

I thought they had ran this before, but I guess not

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by Midwestindy
Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK
Replies: 304
Views: 53250

Re: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK

I don't know to what extent the S&P estimates are realistic. The article states: Looking at Q1 alone, they posted a net loss of $2.2 Bn ($0.5 Bn depreciation, $0.3 Bn interest expense). So we are looking at a negative EBITDA of $1.4 Bn in Q1 alone. Q1 Financials: https://americanairlines.gcs-we...

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by Midwestindy
Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK
Replies: 304
Views: 53250

Re: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK

If you are so sure of imminent bankruptcy for the airlines, then explain to me why credit agencies, industry analysts, investors, and so on are estimating a return to positive EBITA by 2021. Even AA, which I would say is in the worst financial position, S&P estimates having an EBITA of at least...

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by Midwestindy
Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK
Replies: 304
Views: 53250

Re: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK

It’s alarming the amount of cash airlines are trying to raise. The industry is in dire straights and because airlines are missing out on the profitable summer season, I would expect several BK’s early next year, if not sooner. At some point over the next several months, the financial composition of...

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by Midwestindy
Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK
Replies: 304
Views: 53250

Re: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK

It’s alarming the amount of cash airlines are trying to raise. The industry is in dire straights and because airlines are missing out on the profitable summer season, I would expect several BK’s early next year, if not sooner. At some point over the next several months, the financial composition of...

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by Midwestindy
Sun Jun 21, 2020 9:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK
Replies: 304
Views: 53250

Re: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK

https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/american-airlines-announces-proposed-offering-senior-secured https://www.reuters.com/article/us-american-airline-offering/american-airlines-seeks-to-raise-1-5-billion-in-stock-convertible-notes-sale-bloomberg-news-idUSKBN23S0QA ...

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by Midwestindy
Sun Jun 21, 2020 9:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 212
Views: 22273

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Only a small % of US companies aren't planning to resume in the near future. My company personally is among the top 50 in corporate travel spend, and we began client related travel last week, although internal travel is still restricted. It’s important to remember that travel being permitted is a l...

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by Midwestindy
Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 212
Views: 22273

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Something to keep in mind for July numbers is there was already sizable amount of booked in pax for summer, up until around March 14. For about a week or two in March, airlines released tons of low fares & were able to massively increase bookings for a short period of time. This is Gary Kelly ta...

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by Midwestindy
Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: OAG Changes 6/21/2020:August Under Fire;AA Adds DFW-MYR;F9 Builds CVG;DL Drops LAS-LGB/PDX/SAN/SJC/SNA;UA Out of SMX
Replies: 64
Views: 12785

Re: OAG Changes 6/21/2020:August Under Fire;AA Adds DFW-MYR;F9 Builds CVG;DL Drops LAS-LGB/PDX/SAN/SJC/SNA;UA Out of SMX

Thanks again enilria as always I appreciate all the hard work you put into these threads every Sunday. I think the European reductions are to be expected because it would seem as though most of Europe is on a downward trend with COVID, while here in the US we are seeing cases rise in certain states...

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by Midwestindy
Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: OAG Changes 6/21/2020:August Under Fire;AA Adds DFW-MYR;F9 Builds CVG;DL Drops LAS-LGB/PDX/SAN/SJC/SNA;UA Out of SMX
Replies: 64
Views: 12785

Re: OAG Changes 6/21/2020:August Under Fire;AA Adds DFW-MYR;F9 Builds CVG;DL Drops LAS-LGB/PDX/SAN/SJC/SNA;UA Out of SMX

Last week: *DL ATL-BCN AUG 0>0.4[1.0] SEP 0>0.4[1.0] OCT 0>0.3[0.8] *DL ATL-DUB AUG 0>0.4[1.0] SEP 0>0.4[1.0] OCT 0>0.3[0.8] *DL ATL-FCO AUG 0>0.4[2] DL ATL-GIG AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0] OCT 1.0>0.3[1.0] *DL ATL-MAD AUG 0>0.4[1.0] SEP 0>0.4[1.0] OCT 0>0.3[0.9] This week: *DL ATL-BRU AUG 1.0>0[1...

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by Midwestindy
Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons
Replies: 224
Views: 34168

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

I think we will see growth slow down for a bit, until carriers switch over to their July schedule.

There isn't much capacity being added week over week, outside of WN, and most carriers are getting close to LF caps.

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