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by tphuang
Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes
Replies: 194
Views: 20682

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Significant? As in SEA, SFO, or DEN (Excluding PHX since its a Hub)? None of those routes to LAX should be high performers for any airline given the competition, but regardless you or I have no idea how much AA makes or loses on a certain route (or hub for that matter) unless they explicitly say it...

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by tphuang
Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes
Replies: 194
Views: 20682

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

You throw around "hugely unprofitable" a lot, and in this case it is not true Name one significant route from lax to west coast that did well. Significant? As in SEA, SFO, or DEN (Excluding PHX since its a Hub)? None of those routes to LAX should be high performers for any airline given t...

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by tphuang
Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 968
Views: 144238

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

May is a rather interesting time to pick. If I had to guess, the next time we see a spike in demand will be Christmas to NY. And after that, I'd anticipate demand to not pick up again until March break. Once April and May comes around, I think JetBlue is expecting there to be a lot of pent up travel...

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by tphuang
Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK
Replies: 304
Views: 53248

Re: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK

keep in mind that most of the past month, bookings have been going up steadily while they have been running the same schedule. Starting next week, their capacity is going to almost double, so their cost is going up quite a bit. At the same time, online booking has declined by 6.2% last week (the fir...

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by tphuang
Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes
Replies: 194
Views: 20682

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

LAX was not a strong performer domestically. Those west coast stuff were hugely unprofitable. Aa is cutting back on all the weaker performing stations. That include mia lax phx and nyc. I don’t know why this is so hard to see. You throw around "hugely unprofitable" a lot, and in this case...

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by tphuang
Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes
Replies: 194
Views: 20682

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

LAX was not a strong performer domestically. Those west coast stuff were hugely unprofitable. Aa is cutting back on all the weaker performing stations. That include mia lax phx and nyc. I don’t know why this is so hard to see.

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by tphuang
Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 968
Views: 144238

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

If demand is still so low by next may that they need to do furlough, the entire industry is in trouble.

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by tphuang
Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes
Replies: 194
Views: 20682

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Possibly, though here is the kicker: If/when the Covid situation resolves, and travel demand starts to increase again, DL can always boost up BOS and LAX flying to whatever level they deem appropriate. That is not necessarily true at SEA. SEA has been, and will continue to be, very much gate constr...

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by tphuang
Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA/NK/F9/HA/OO Reach CARES Act Loan Agreements with Govt
Replies: 24
Views: 3210

Re: AA/NK/F9/HA/OO Reach Loan Agreements with Govt

that $15 billion includes this loan. It's not hard to see how this could turn out disastrously for AA. $30 to 40 million per day burn for rest of the year is about $7 billion. $20 million a day from Jan-May is another $3 billion. Once an airline size of AA is down to $5 billion in liquidity and hav...

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by tphuang
Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 968
Views: 144238

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Well, this is a nice news for everyone https://paxex.aero/2020/07/jetblue-pilots-secure-no-furlough-deal-through-april-2021/ Good for the pilots. Would allow JetBlue to add back capacity faster if demand snaps back in the winter. The question is... what is the union being asked to give up in exchan...

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by tphuang
Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes
Replies: 194
Views: 20682

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

DL can't sustain capacity dumping and yield trashing in SEA, LAX, and BOS at the same time What’s interesting about this statement is that DL severely cut both BOS & LAX to focus on SEA. Also interesting about BOS is that AA has maintained a significant presence given the environment/circumstan...

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by tphuang
Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Agrees Not to Involuntarily Lay Off Pilots Until May 2021
Replies: 38
Views: 4359

Re: JetBlue Agrees Not to Involuntarily Lay Off Workers Until May 2021

Pilots have a union and collective bargaining agreement. As much as this site hates unions, this is proof why having one in this business means a lot more than family and culture. Out clearly now to the airline: no involuntary furloughs for all frontline non-union workgroups, and a caveat that infl...

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by tphuang
Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA/NK/F9/HA/OO Reach CARES Act Loan Agreements with Govt
Replies: 24
Views: 3210

Re: AA/NK/F9/HA/OO Reach Loan Agreements with Govt

Soon Americans will own American. How is that? It's a loan, not an equity interest nor stock warrants. If AA defaults the government can seize collateral, but many on a.net keep denying the possibility of Ch 11. Liquidity of $15 billion and seek Ch-11? With US government lend over $10 billion to AA...

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by tphuang
Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA/NK/F9/HA/OO Reach CARES Act Loan Agreements with Govt
Replies: 24
Views: 3210

Re: AA/NK/F9/HA/OO Reach Loan Agreements with Govt

Interesting, I wonder why not more airlines are getting this loan if it's going to be pretty low interest rate compared to open market. What kind of stipulations are being given by federal gov't?

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by tphuang
Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons
Replies: 224
Views: 34164

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

I could be wrong - but I doubt we’re going to see any more lockdowns in the US. Would be nice if everybody wore masks, but the truth is people are over it, plain and simple. Closing bars and gyms is not “lockdown” either. Now, I definitely agree that it does reduce the demand for air travel. If som...

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by tphuang
Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons
Replies: 224
Views: 34164

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

If you’re going to start including case count in your thread, may want to track deaths as well, which are still continuing to decline. In before someone says “yeah but wait two weeks”. How many two weeks do we have to wait until we collectively acknowledge that? They are not relevant, new cases are...

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by tphuang
Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 968
Views: 144238

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

As we turn into July, a look at how many flights JetBlue is bringing back at each of the major focus cities vs competitors JFK: B6 at 85, DL at 48, AA at 11 BOS: B6 at 77, DL at 25, AA at 29 FLL: B6 at 39, WN at 39, NK at 57 - NK is definitely bringing things back really fast in July vs June AA appe...

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by tphuang
Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:58 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes
Replies: 194
Views: 20682

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Well there we have it, this seems like an obvious move for AA in LAX: International has been a struggle for AA in LAX, however now it is much easier to cut knowing your competitors will likely follow suit & while also knowing that international demand will be suppressed for potentially years to...

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by tphuang
Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:29 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes
Replies: 194
Views: 20682

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

I don't get adding SEA to PVG either for AA. I think AA may have really lost its way deciding to go up against DL at SEA. The key point here is that DL is not some behemoth at SEA. They have struggled sustaining long haul to Asia to even large markets like HKG and KIX. Except for ICN and possibly P...

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by tphuang
Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:58 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes
Replies: 194
Views: 20682

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Well there we have it, this seems like an obvious move for AA in LAX: International has been a struggle for AA in LAX, however now it is much easier to cut knowing your competitors will likely follow suit & while also knowing that international demand will be suppressed for potentially years to...

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by tphuang
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020
Replies: 2372
Views: 407269

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

It's interesting that UA is only adding 350 flights for August from July. This is indeed a pretty cautious increase compared to what DL had announced 2 weeks ago. The big change since DL announcement is that the recent COVID surge has entered everyone's mind again. I wonder if UA was planning a lar...

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by tphuang
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 968
Views: 144238

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

https://paxex.aero/2020/07/jetblue-pilo ... pril-2021/

Good for the pilots. Would allow JetBlue to add back capacity faster if demand snaps back in the winter.
-->

Well, this is a nice news for everyone
https://paxex.aero/2020/07/jetblue-pilo ... pril-2021/

Good for the pilots. Would allow JetBlue to add back capacity faster if demand snaps back in the winter.

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by tphuang
Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes
Replies: 194
Views: 20682

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

It is all a giant chess match, and this move by AA basically solidifies the proverbial “your move, Delta.” Up until the AS to OneWorld move, Delta was winning the long term battle for SEA. Yes AS still had a much larger presence and was not going away, but Delta was quickly becoming the go-to airli...

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by tphuang
Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The Future of Long Island MacArthur Airport - KISP
Replies: 56
Views: 3685

Re: The Future of Long Island MacArthur Airport - KISP

I think F9's burgeoning presence will prevent WN from adding back most of the leisure stuff. Just be BWI for the most part from now on.

I thought JetBlue might be interested, but JFK is no longer slot constrained so, it will be a while before they look at ISP.

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by tphuang
Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes
Replies: 194
Views: 20682

Re: American adds more Asia to SEA, and other long-haul changes

Again, AA is way too optimistic here. 25% lower capacity compared to 2019? Demand will be way down next year.

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by tphuang
Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020
Replies: 2372
Views: 407269

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

It's interesting that UA is only adding 350 flights for August from July. This is indeed a pretty cautious increase compared to what DL had announced 2 weeks ago. The big change since DL announcement is that the recent COVID surge has entered everyone's mind again. I wonder if UA was planning a larg...

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by tphuang
Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons
Replies: 224
Views: 34164

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

We should get pretty good bump for this weekend. Will be interesting to see where the numbers are after that.

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by tphuang
Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 877
Views: 110888

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

What you are saying about overall demand in the US is spot on, I agree 100%. I think where we disagree is DL’s commitment to BOS. Based on your posts, you clearly articulate (based on speculation and your own bias) that DL is not ambitious towards certain focus cites and I don’t fully agree.. I mea...

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by tphuang
Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:15 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 877
Views: 110888

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

Don’t know where to start... you cannot compare AS at SFO to DL at BOS -DL at BOS is running a larger, more international and more profitable operation. It may not be a profitable route at this time but DL is going to run it (just like B6 is going to run ATL or IAH) because it’s one of the biggest ...

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by tphuang
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 877
Views: 110888

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

DL's Skyteam partner KE can offer connection from Boston to Asia via ICN. No need to fly the wrong way for 6 hours. Besides, BOS-SFO has been a bloodbath for economy fares. As has cut BOS-SFO for July. August is still too far out to know what their final schedule looks like. DL has cut BOS-SFO for ...

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by tphuang
Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 968
Views: 144238

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

So Cuomo and tri state have increased quarantine list to 16 states. He is making at least some threats of adding some teeth to enforcement which would be a problem for JetBlue, especially since demand to places like California have been recovering. With these announcements, I'm not too optimistic ab...

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by tphuang
Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 877
Views: 110888

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2020

DL's SkyTeam partners CI and MU also serve SFO, and DL can offer connections onto CI SFO-TPE and MU SFO-KMG/TAO/PVG flights from its BOS-SFO nonstop flights. DL's Skyteam partner KE can offer connection from Boston to Asia via ICN. No need to fly the wrong way for 6 hours. Besides, BOS-SFO has been...

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by tphuang
Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 968
Views: 144238

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Good point, San Juan is looking very good. I'm seeing 30 flights on July 26th out of SJU and 31 flights on Aug 23rd. That's about 2/3 to 3/4 of what they had scheduled into SJU pre-COVID.. I wonder if there will also be more leisure demand to PR if Florida loses its appeal from closing stuff down. O...

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by tphuang
Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 212
Views: 22270

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

This is an interesting article on CF regarding AS pulling back in July with reduction on their repviously announced capacity (so I guess they will be flying 40% instead of 50% schedule) https://crankyflier.com/2020/06/30/alaska-pulls-back-in-july/ A lot of airlines added capacity really close-in in ...

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by tphuang
Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020
Replies: 284
Views: 40274

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2020

https://crankyflier.com/2020/06/30/alas ... k-in-july/

I assume that part of this is due to certain market not being open while other markets are showing declining demand due to recent COVID surges.
-->

This is an interesting article showing that AS cut back 20% of schedule close-in.
https://crankyflier.com/2020/06/30/alas ... k-in-july/

I assume that part of this is due to certain market not being open while other markets are showing declining demand due to recent COVID surges.

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by tphuang
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 212
Views: 22270

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Hard for me to believe that most of the bookings are done for July when the close in fares are as low as what I am seeing. This would seem to contradict a lot of what we have been hearing up until now. Remember, capacity is doubling and bookings are flat for Weeks now. Jonnyc just posted a chart whe...

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by tphuang
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots
Replies: 227
Views: 35740

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

WN to Hawaii from LGB makes ZERO sense when LAX is up the street; that's the EASIEST airport for them to do Hawaii from and they didn't plan on doing it pre-pandemic so you can pretty much count that out now Why people think LGB is some kind of gold mine is beyond me, and most others here I Don't k...

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by tphuang
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 212
Views: 22270

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

It's been just about 4 days since the tr-state quarantine news came out, so not all of last week would've been equally affected. I think a lot of the bookings have been really up close. ULCCs added a bunch of capacities with the expectations that they will be able to continue to get those planes fi...

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by tphuang
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 212
Views: 22270

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

It's been just about 4 days since the tr-state quarantine news came out, so not all of last week would've been equally affected. I think a lot of the bookings have been really up close. ULCCs added a bunch of capacities with the expectations that they will be able to continue to get those planes fil...

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by tphuang
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - June 2020
Replies: 182
Views: 17675

Re: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - June 2020

https://globalnews.ca/news/7120324/port ... august-31/

Is Porter in danger of not making it?
-->

Porter extends suspension of operation again until August 31 https://globalnews.ca/news/7120324/port ... august-31/

Is Porter in danger of not making it?

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by tphuang
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots
Replies: 227
Views: 35740

Re: Long Beach (LGB) increasing number of air carrier slots

As I posted on the JetBlue thread, I think the axe is going to drop on LGB pretty soon. August is showing 2x weekly on JFK-LGB and nothing to BOS. That's even less frequency than to RNO/ONT/BZN. I'm not sure the point of keeping LGB around if B6 considers it to be even lower yielding on transcon tha...

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by tphuang
Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 736
Views: 64068

Re: Philadelphia Aviation Thread - 2020

Based off the OAG post today B6 BOS route is being trimmed to 2 daily flights B6 BOS-PHL AUG 8>2[7] Not surprised. But at least it's two daily. I'm wondering if B6 will have to push back the start dates one month or even two? Also thanks for posting the article yesterday. I really hope the incentiv...

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by tphuang
Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 968
Views: 144238

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Wasnt EWR running close to 40 flights before? The most I've ever counted was 31. They scheduled in 35 for May and 29 for Summer before this. JetBlue trying to run 40 flights on 4 gates would not be a pretty sight. I think LGB as a B6 focus city is toast. I think once B6 makes its final cuts on LGB,...

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by tphuang
Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 968
Views: 144238

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

The initial August cuts are in. They are bringing back most of the stations. LGA/HPN/SWF/BWI/SJC/RNO/SMF/HYA/BUR/ONT/SRQ/BZN are all coming back. I'm sure there are more in there that I'm missing right now. This is from late July to give a point of reference JFK - 99 BOS - 83 FLL - 41 EWR - 23 Now f...

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by tphuang
Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: OAG Changes 6/28/2020:CALMING SKIES;AC Cuts BDL;AS Adds DLG/AKN;B6 Chops August;TK Back to ATL/BOS?;UA Moves PQI to IAD
Replies: 68
Views: 11914

Re: OAG Changes 6/28/2020:CALMING SKIES;AC Cuts BDL;AS Adds DLG/AKN;B6 Chops August;TK Back to ATL/BOS?;UA Moves PQI to

DL ATL-TPA SEP 13>12[12] Is anyone else surprised by this. I mean I am super happy if true, but is it possible they just have not loaded all the cuts. they have no loaded their cuts for september. In fact, they have not loaded their final cuts for August, even. AA/UA haven't even made their initial...

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by tphuang
Sun Jun 28, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 934
Views: 157682

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Everyone's swarming to Florida. New routes added by JetBlue and Frontier are to Florida. Why is this? Makes absolutely no sense to me, especially with the COVID explosion happening there, I would think that it should be cratering now, again, regardless of any short-term bubble in weeks past. I mean...

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by tphuang
Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - June 2020
Replies: 182
Views: 17675

Re: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - June 2020

What EU is doing is nothing out of ordinary. Most countries have similar restrictions put into place. It’s not aimed at just America. In fact, they are only opening themselves to a smaller list of nations. Again, nothing out of ordinary at current environment.

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by tphuang
Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020
Replies: 2372
Views: 407269

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

JMO on this. blocking middle seat doesn't solve a lot of problems, but it will make things safer. Wear a mask + seat in front of you and behind you means you most likely can't infect the guys in front or behind you through droplet. So then, it's about the people to the left and right. If you are in ...

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by tphuang
Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK
Replies: 275
Views: 33344

Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

I don’t think JetBlue will be hurt more than airlines with more significant operations in sunbelt states like aa or nk. I do expect them to cut back on their planned increases for August. And I think this assures dl and ua will be small in ny until February and March. So at most, this just pushes Je...

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by tphuang
Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:26 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK
Replies: 275
Views: 33344

Re: Major Expansion B6 at EWR and JFK

I think the tristate announcement was really disastrous for airlines this week. Not that the quarantines themselves have any meat, but now people perceive it to be dangerous going to Florida/Texas/Arizona. My guess is all the JFK stuff goes ahead as planned. I think a few EWR routes still get launch...

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