Search found 40 matches

by Hornberger
Sat Aug 15, 2020 9:40 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020
Replies: 705
Views: 46982

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

Russia is to start mass production of the first approved - by Russia - vaccine. The problem of course with this vaccine is that it is not properly tested. Phase 1 trials are complete, but not the larger ones. And yet they start mass production and want to begin vaccination of Russians. it hasn't be...

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by Hornberger
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Trump Wants to Postpone Election
Replies: 107
Views: 5919

Re: Trump Wants to Postpone Election

Will be interesting (and very scary) to see what happens if Trumpet loses and refuses to leave. Doubt the Secret Service will do anything to physically remove him, they're just concerned about his safety. US Marshals? Or just leave him in the White House, cut off the communications (and the Twitter...

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by Hornberger
Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020
Replies: 705
Views: 46982

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

I still think we are to see the worst of Fl, Texas, California and AZ to come in the following weeks for death counts before they taper off. Cases peaked in Arizona (as measure by % positive tests) around the 10 July. I would expect deaths in Arizona to be at its peak now. Cases peaked in Texas aro...

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by Hornberger
Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:31 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020
Replies: 705
Views: 46982

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

USA deaths will certainly hit 150,000 this weekend. Despite the claims of some here, the death count has inevitably started climbing. On that tack, I have been logging world positive test numbers and deaths since March. I have noticed that while the number of positives has risen dramatically over t...

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by Hornberger
Sat Jul 18, 2020 3:40 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020
Replies: 705
Views: 46982

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

I'm refusing to accept reality by REPORTING THE ACTUAL NUMBERS? You people are beyond help. Enjoy unemployment. The actual numbers show nine deaths for the first week of July, and sixty-nine for the second. That's not business as usual. The actual numbers show 30 deaths on 18 June, and 89 deaths on...

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by Hornberger
Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:11 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020
Replies: 705
Views: 46982

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2020

You keep ignoring trends, I'll keep mentioning them. Death rate per positive case in Arizona has dropped from a late April high of 9.2% to under .5% now. But yeah, deaths finna surge! Give me a break. For the week ending 28 June, Arizona reported 246 deaths. For the week ending 21 June, Arizona rep...

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by Hornberger
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not
Replies: 376
Views: 56569

Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

* International air travel will not recover meaningfully until there is a vaccine and people can travel without fear of being contaminated by fellow passengers. I suspect that a vaccination certificate will be required by many countries before you're even allowed to board a flight to that country. ...

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by Hornberger
Fri Oct 04, 2019 11:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lufthansa loses No-Show lawsuit
Replies: 85
Views: 17701

Re: Lufthansa loses No-Show lawsuit

I cannot see a European airline ever succeeding in court on the fare difference between the ticketed segments and the actual segments flown - the airlines have not suffered a real loss which requires compensation. They could succeed on actual costs incurred as result of the no-show (airport charges,...

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by Hornberger
Thu Oct 03, 2019 5:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019
Replies: 417
Views: 99827

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

I am surprised that no Victorian government agency has made a submission in support of QF’s application. I know this was discussed above, but in my opinion a link to HND is a valuable commercial proposition (given the business community focus on HND flights). This makes me think something is known ...

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by Hornberger
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:30 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019
Replies: 417
Views: 99827

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

In a meaningful way, I have responded to your question in the same way you can’t really give me a better answer as for why BAC, Tourism QLD and TA’s can’t get the same result from VA starting BNE-NRT. An extra daily flight is more landing fees for Brisbane Airport. An extra daily flight is an extra...

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by Hornberger
Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019
Replies: 417
Views: 99827

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Meaningful way? Is this a joke? Anyway, I’ve already responded to your comments re: Melbourne Airport and Visit Victoria. We’re done. Except you haven't respond to the question at all - all your response are about VA and BNE - HND vs BNE - NRT. There is nothing in your response the explain why it w...

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by Hornberger
Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019
Replies: 417
Views: 99827

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

But your point was that BNE-HND is a new route. MEL-HND is also a new route. QA flying Melbourne - Tokyo is not a new route in an meaningful way. VA flying Brisbane - Tokyo is a new route. Going back to my original question - Why does Melbourne Airport care if QA have a MEL - HND flight instead of ...

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by Hornberger
Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019
Replies: 417
Views: 99827

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

Err. Links to the rest of Japan. Exactly the same point Brisbane Airport and Tourism Australia supporting VA’s application. VA is already allowed to fly NRT and open additional capacity to Japan and provide competition. It chooses not to. VA's application represent a new flight - that represents ne...

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by Hornberger
Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019
Replies: 417
Views: 99827

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

It’ll be interesting to see if Destination NSW and Visit Victoria, SACL and Melbourne Airport come out in support of QF. Why would Visit Victoria or Melbourne Airport support QF when there is anything in it for them? QF isn't offering increased capacity or addition frequencies. There is no marginal...

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by Hornberger
Wed Oct 02, 2019 6:53 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019
Replies: 417
Views: 99827

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2019

It’ll be interesting to see if Destination NSW and Visit Victoria, SACL and Melbourne Airport come out in support of QF. Why would Visit Victoria or Melbourne Airport support QF when there is anything in it for them? QF isn't offering increased capacity or addition frequencies. There is no marginal...

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by Hornberger
Sat Sep 21, 2019 4:56 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: How does aviation tackle climate change?
Replies: 133
Views: 27513

Re: How does aviation tackle climate change?

The only real solution is to fly less: * Use larger, more fuel efficient planes, with higher density seating seats and carrying higher passenger loads. * Increase the high reliance on teleconferencing for business meetings. * Reduce the use of fly-in fly-out working arrangements. Don't employ some o...

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by Hornberger
Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1494
Views: 290871

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

This recent interview with Qantas CEO Alan Joyce suggests that the primary Project Sunrise routes to be served from MEL and SYD are: ⋅ London ⋅ New York ⋅ Chicago ⋅ Rio de Janeiro ⋅ Cape Town Why are Project Sunsrise aircraft required for Rio or Cap...

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by Hornberger
Sat Jun 08, 2019 1:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: More Point-to-Point The Path Forward?
Replies: 36
Views: 5175

Re: More Point-to-Point The Path Forward?

Are there any statistics / research on the percentage of air travel that is direct vs 1 stop vs 2 stops vs 3+ stops, and how that compares to 10, 20 or 30 years ago?

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by Hornberger
Sun May 19, 2019 8:25 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1494
Views: 290871

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

If the 778 can reliably carry an extra 3T between Sydney and London compared to the A35K, that is extra 30 pax in Y. The 778 might still only be carrying 280 pax (and no cargo) compared to 250 pax for the A35K. Obviously you chose to ignore the comments regarding conclusions cannot be drawn unless ...

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by Hornberger
Sun May 19, 2019 7:07 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1494
Views: 290871

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

The A350-1000 will carry less payload mass compared to the 777-8, however it has more revenue space above the floor the airline can configure for revenue. It also have more volume in the cargo hold, with the ability to carry an extra pallet compared to the 777-8. The A350-1000 should more flexible ...

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by Hornberger
Sun May 19, 2019 6:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1494
Views: 290871

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

If I have understood correctly, the 778 has the payload advantage at extreme ranges (16,000km+) but the A35K is likely to have the cost advantage as trip length decreases. That suggests that the 778 has the economic edge. The 778 carries more payload, but not more passengers. I doubt QF is interest...

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by Hornberger
Sat May 18, 2019 10:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1494
Views: 290871

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

If I have understood correctly, the 778 has the payload advantage at extreme ranges (16,000km+) but the A35K is likely to have the cost advantage as trip length decreases. That suggests that the 778 has the economic edge. Of the potential ULH routes, the key routes (SYD / MEL to LHR/JFK) are at thos...

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by Hornberger
Mon May 13, 2019 10:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1494
Views: 290871

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

What size order are people expecting? To my mind there are probably 5 safe bets for ULH routes (Syd - LHR, Syd - JFK, Syd - DFW, Mel - LHR, Per - LHR). That is 10 aircraft ( + 1 or 2 spares). Two of those routes (Syd - DFW, Per - LHR) are already served by other aircraft but could probably be better...

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by Hornberger
Mon May 13, 2019 8:04 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1494
Views: 290871

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

I am sceptical to the degree to which 'operational flexibility' is going to impact on the final decision. At the end of the day, flying either a 250 seat A35K or 280 seat 778 in a 4 class configuration between Melbourne and Hong Kong is going to have lousy economics. You are going to want to ULH air...

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by Hornberger
Sun May 12, 2019 7:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019
Replies: 366
Views: 66180

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

While I am big fan of HSR, I don't think a conventional HSR between Melbourne and Sydney will ever be viable. It simply isn't fast enough. At 3.5 hours by train, neither train nor plane will have a material time advantage. It will come down to price, schedule and personal preferences. For HSR to wor...

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by Hornberger
Sat May 11, 2019 4:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019
Replies: 366
Views: 66180

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

With all this bullet train talk around the federal election and labour now pledging $1 billion to build it - what would the impact of high speed rail between SYD/MEL/BNE have on the golden triangle air travel? Labor isn't pledging $1bn to build HSR, they are pledging $1bn to secure the necessary la...

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by Hornberger
Sun Mar 31, 2019 12:28 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?
Replies: 127
Views: 18222

Re: Why Has Boeing Been So Reluctant To Build A New Narrowbody?

Boeing builds the NSA, which is 10% more efficient than the Neo. Airlines start heavily favour the NSA over the Neo. Airbus responds by building the Neo replacement. The Neo replacement is equal to the NSA. The NSA and and Neo replacement have equal sales. Both Boeing and Airbus have spent $10 - 20b...

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by Hornberger
Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue CEO: JVs stifle competition
Replies: 149
Views: 10842

Re: JetBlue CEO: JVs stifle competition

I think it is important to remember that many JV's in the airline industry are only necessary because of archaic foreign ownership laws that prevent cross-border acquisition and mergers. This is a dynamic doesn't exist is pretty much every other industry.

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by Hornberger
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Turkish Airlines in Kangaroo route
Replies: 89
Views: 2613

Re: Turkish Airlines to Australia in 2019 with B787-9

Assuming 1 J = 4 Y. Why would you assume that though? TK is 6abreast in J on its Airbus widebodies and 7 abreast on its 777s. Assuming they pursue the typical 9 abreast Y in a 787, that puts 1J = 1.5Y or 1.3Y Granted, I'm aware that pitch has to be taken into account, but that's not going to triple...

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by Hornberger
Wed Sep 19, 2018 7:38 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Turkish Airlines in Kangaroo route
Replies: 89
Views: 2613

Re: Turkish Airlines to Australia in 2019 with B787-9

Does a First/Business Class seat + occupant + baggage + catering weigh more than the equivalent # of Economy Seats + Occupants + Baggage + Catering? Yep. A single J seat can weigh as much as a whole row of 9abreast Y seats. F seats are even worse. It's not uncommon for J seats to weigh 80-100kg... ...

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by Hornberger
Mon Jul 23, 2018 6:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018
Replies: 641
Views: 66809

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

I disagree. The "direct" route would only shave about 5-8 minutes of travel time, and costs a lot more. The decontamination that's needed on the Maribyrnong defence site is huge and expensive. Sunshine makes a lot of sense in terms of integrating into the whole network. Building a super h...

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by Hornberger
Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018
Replies: 641
Views: 66809

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Hornberger, reply 439: Can you elaborate a bit please. From Sunshine I assume you mean the line is along side the standard gauge line to about Airport West then a new branch into the airport. I cannot find any lines closer to the airport than that, on Google maps. Also this: "construction to s...

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by Hornberger
Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018
Replies: 641
Views: 66809

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

I know little of Melbourne but Sunshine seems a long way from MEL. Are they proposing some sort of dedicated line to the airport rather than integrate it into the suburban network like BNE and SYD links both are? I know nothing of the issues, but does that explain the years of delay? A simple branc...

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by Hornberger
Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2018
Replies: 482
Views: 49523

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2018

What would be the real world range of 787-10 for QA or JQ? Based on the following configurations: QA: 32J (78") + 300Y (31") JQ: 28J (38") + 400Y (29") Would it be able to fly routes such as: MEL - HON (8,900 km) MEL - PEK (9,100 km) SYD - BOM (10,200 km) JQ already fly to Honol...

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by Hornberger
Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2018
Replies: 482
Views: 49523

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2018

What would be the real world range of 787-10 for QA or JQ?

Based on the following configurations:
QA: 32J (78") + 300Y (31")
JQ: 28J (38") + 400Y (29")

Would it be able to fly routes such as:
MEL - HON (8,900 km)
MEL - PEK (9,100 km)
SYD - BOM (10,200 km)

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by Hornberger
Thu Jun 07, 2018 12:04 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What Is The Real Difference Among Full Service, LCC and ULCC Carriers?
Replies: 65
Views: 6761

Re: What Is The Real Difference Among Full Service, LCC and ULCC Carriers?

The way I see it is FSC is focused on increasing revenue first and cutting cost second, where as LCC aim to cut costs first and increase revenue second. A FSC seeks to do things that add value to customers (particularly to high value business travellers) - e.g. Airport lounges, getting the best slot...

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by Hornberger
Tue May 08, 2018 10:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes
Replies: 239
Views: 20827

Re: Bloomberg article: Watch Out, Airlines. High Speed Rail Now Rivals Flying on Key Routes

HSR is not concerned with population along the route as it doesn’t stop often. That’s what pisses off so many people living along HSR routes: they don’t get any benefits out of it! HSR cares very much about people along the route. It is just a trade off between adding extra stops as to serve more p...

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by Hornberger
Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qantas proposes amenities in the cargo hold for ultra long flights
Replies: 76
Views: 13233

Re: Alan Joyce floats the idea of "Cargo class"

Doesn't the issue regarding evacuation have to do with take off and landing? If the area isn't occupied at those times then it would be ok? So...bunks during flight, or maybe lavs make the most sense to free up space above, as on some Airbus planes. Not sure of the exact dimensions of the 777-X car...

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by Hornberger
Sun Feb 25, 2018 2:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018
Replies: 729
Views: 63068

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

I disagree. Look at the list of 10 world's busiest air routes: http://www.traveller.com.au/worlds-busiest-airline-flight-routes-melbournesydney-now-worlds-second-busiest-h0e7ha The average length is 830km. The shortest is Rio to Sao Paulo at 350km. The longest is Cape Town to Johannesburg at 1,260k...

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by Hornberger
Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018
Replies: 729
Views: 63068

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - February 2018

I appreciate your point, but will (with global) market demands, a 797 be optimized for the east coast triangle? Yes, I know, some Asian sectors in between etc etc, but I do not see Boeing providing an Aircraft to suit this type of operation, especially considering the other operators (and their req...

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