Search found 1053 matches

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by moa999
Sat Jul 31, 2021 11:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 381
Views: 64188

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Lessors don’t necessarily have to get equity in situation like this. They might settle for a cash payment, for example, even if that payment is less than the total debt owed to them. The issue with AAX is AAX essentially wants the the lessors to take all the pain with nothing in return (no money, n...

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by moa999
Sat Jul 31, 2021 9:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 381
Views: 64188

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Use another court to reposses. This is a travisty of financial law. The new entity will encounter interesting financing terms. See Virgin Australia for similar example. Lessors have no equity in new entity. Arguably AAX is even worse position. Which lessor wants back a 333 at the moment, let alone ...

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by moa999
Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:00 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: The Downhill Spiral of Southwest Airlines
Replies: 39
Views: 5821

Re: The Downhill Spiral of Southwest Airlines

Start with a young fresh crew, all under 30 apart from a few seniors from other airlines. 20 years later some of those young, fresh crew will be decidedly middle aged and jaded. Not quite the 70yo with high seniority on the legacy airlines, but not far off. Same happened in Australia with Virgin Blu...

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by moa999
Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2021
Replies: 131
Views: 24868

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2021

I'm 30 but got my first AZ dose recently. I expect to be fully vaccinated before I would be eligible for Pfizer, and certainly don't regret it. Agree for the 18-30 age group. Possibly different in the 30-39 group, who will probably get Pfizer first. You've got to remember as well as AZ we also had ...

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by moa999
Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 381
Views: 64188

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

But in effect that's what the proposal is..

Effectively AAG is buying the shell and AOC for $1, agreeing to kick in $xx million new equity.
And agreeing to keep on certain select liabilities and future contracts.

It's ugly either way for the lessors and Airbus.

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by moa999
Mon Jul 12, 2021 5:43 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 381
Views: 64188

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

It's no different to Virgin Australia Imho. The equity is worth nothing. Debt/lessors has to take a haircut and have some ongoing relationship, or get nothing. New equity comes in (in VAs case private equity, in D7s case from AAG). The only difference here is that some investors still seem to think ...

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by moa999
Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 381
Views: 64188

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

The lessors aren't making back their money -- they're taking a gigantic haircut without even the potential for some appreciation by way of an equity stake. Situation seems a bit like Virgin Australia. The business is so far on the red that it needs additional capital, and government assistance/inve...

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by moa999
Tue May 25, 2021 3:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Status of LAX TBIT Midfield Concourse
Replies: 147
Views: 36573

Re: Status of LAX TBIT Midfield Concourse

Any news on what airlines/alliances or third parties taking up the lounge spaces?

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by moa999
Thu May 06, 2021 3:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Malaysia Airlines News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 341
Views: 94499

Re: Malaysia Airlines News and Discussion Thread

No buyers before Covid.
HiFly has given up on their attempt.

With so many airlines grounding fleets, not much value even in spare parts.

Methinks the scrapper will be where they end up, and they don't pay much.

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by moa999
Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:26 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2021
Replies: 270
Views: 44765

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2021

Did it fly, or maybe an equipment test? FlightAware shows it still at VCV

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by moa999
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2021
Replies: 270
Views: 44765

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2021

And how many new prop planes has Rex bought since that prop fell off?

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by moa999
Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JAL looks to create low-cost carrier network
Replies: 16
Views: 4047

Re: JAL looks to create low-cost carrier network

Spring only operates Japan-China, so more like ZipAir which is also solely international.

Jetstar Japan is more domestic focussed (though has also flown some international routes)

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by moa999
Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: oneworld in Central Europe
Replies: 56
Views: 9953

Re: oneworld in Central Europe

debonair wrote:
Absolutely! Blue Air no longer wants to be a ULCC. Modern B737Max fleet, move to central airports like CDG/AMS/LHR, IPO at the London Stock Exchange and much more, source:


Maybe one day. But for now Blue Air is smaller than Sri Lankan.

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by moa999
Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: oneworld in Central Europe
Replies: 56
Views: 9953

Re: oneworld in Central Europe

And CZ had existing partnerships with other OW airlines.

You just need to unwind the CX/AC cross-shareholding and it becomes more palatable.
Certainly CX could do with the cash from selling out of AC.

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by moa999
Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Speculation : Airbus Response to a possible NMA-5
Replies: 151
Views: 22232

Re: Speculation : Airbus Response to a possible NMA-5

How much heavier is the empty weight of an A321xlr versus the A321neo? About 2t? Will the A322 be another 2t heavier? If the xlr takes 18t out to 4700nm, then the NMA will be designed to take 22t out to 5000nm, and the Airbus response will be to build a plane that takes 24t out to 5300nm, or someth...

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by moa999
Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:15 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Vietnamese Aviation Thread - 2021
Replies: 63
Views: 7438

Re: Vietnamese Aviation Thread - 2021

Ok. maybe not 'fail'.
But by making the previous announcement they would have got lots of feedback from market participants/ potential investors.

Next month the might try being the first airline to raise money via an NFT.

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by moa999
Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Vietnamese Aviation Thread - 2021
Replies: 63
Views: 7438

Re: Vietnamese Aviation Thread - 2021

I'll give these guys credit for trying...

Fail to launch a raising in Vietnam, so try an even higher value in the US.

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by moa999
Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2021
Replies: 270
Views: 44765

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2021

While capacity might be there, from a few posts I've seen the new entrant in particular is having some shocking loads

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by moa999
Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qantas expects A380 fleet to return
Replies: 71
Views: 15686

Re: Qantas expects A380 fleet to return

If was QF themselves saying that 2x 789 flights STILL cost less than 1x A388. But that was at full purchase price. Once you've taken a massive write down on the A380s things change. Then suddenly the accounting profit or CASM plus depreciation/interest/lease makes an old A380 far more viable versus...

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by moa999
Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qantas expects A380 fleet to return
Replies: 71
Views: 15686

Re: Qantas expects A380 fleet to return

Agreed A lot can happen.. And you've got to consider the financial impact of this.. Joyce can't say much else. Qantas own all 12 outright afaik, no leases, no specific lien. While they've written them down substantially they've still got some value (and they've just spent more $$s refurbing 6 before...

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by moa999
Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Flypop secures A330 leases for start-up.
Replies: 37
Views: 6690

Re: Flypop secures A330 leases for start-up.

I can see it may work for some secondary cities where the typical full service carrier model doesn't work due to lack of premium demand. Remember Emirates had a small A380 fleet that has no F and a smaller J for this market. But you're still fare capped to whatever the cost of a domestic flight to t...

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by moa999
Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:04 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Exclusive- Airbus floating concept for A380 combi
Replies: 96
Views: 13104

Re: Exclusive- Airbus floating concept for A380 combi

Question really is who is driving this? Simple answer is if EK wants it, then it might happen, otherwise no chance. Airbus has limited skin in the game here, and I suspect most parts are going to come from retired aircraft. I could see this possibly be appealing to QF who own all 12 aircraft, and ha...

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by moa999
Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:25 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Butterfly Business Class Seat
Replies: 11
Views: 3040

Re: Butterfly Business Class Seat

It's described as PE, really an International PE or recliner.

But that equates to a Domestic Business or First in the USA or Australia and mostly a Regional Business in Asia.

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by moa999
Fri Mar 26, 2021 7:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qantas 738 replacement competition
Replies: 196
Views: 26788

Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

JonesNL wrote:
Wouldn't the A223 with a possible A225 in the future be an option for QF? It would give them an operational benefit over Virgin. ...


In what way? If you can fill the aircraft the 737-800, and later 737-10 will have a far lower cost per seat

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by moa999
Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qantas 738 replacement competition
Replies: 196
Views: 26788

Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

zkojq wrote:
QF has lots of A380 deposit money still at Airbus.


No proof of that.
And if any money was specifically ties to the A380, it would have had to have been released when Airbus cancelled the program.

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by moa999
Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Volotea launches Bilbao - Gibraltar route in July 2021
Replies: 34
Views: 4261

Re: Volotea launches Bilbao - Gibraltar route in July 2021

A continual freeze and thaw in border relations...
Painful for the many who live in Spain and work in Gib or vv.

Having relatives in the area, they tend to use Malaga Airport (130km away) for the better connections, unless flying to the UK (at least when the border is normalised)

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by moa999
Thu Mar 25, 2021 7:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qantas 738 replacement competition
Replies: 196
Views: 26788

Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

737-10 will win this with 199 seats in a 2 class cabin. https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRbPl0E0JYYNAZCNYwqErJ5S2mHk6OgehZdAA&usqp=CAU https://www.boeing.com/commercial/737max10/index.page Agreed, the MAX should bag this order. it is the perfect fit. It's funny that that gr...

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by moa999
Thu Mar 25, 2021 5:31 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021
Replies: 329
Views: 48587

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

tullamarine wrote:
Given they are the owners, this is hardly a surprise. It is effectively internal spend from Bain's point of view.


Bain Cap and Bain & Co consulting are entirely different organisations.

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by moa999
Thu Mar 25, 2021 1:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qantas 738 replacement competition
Replies: 196
Views: 26788

Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Sure, but QF isn't going to wait for an NMA, if or when it happens. That's got as much relevance to their short term narrow body as the Sunrise order does. This is going to be between the 737 MAX and the a320neo. Agreed Boeing has had about five attempts now at a new aircraft and each time the numb...

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by moa999
Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Vietnamese Aviation Thread - 2021
Replies: 63
Views: 7438

Re: Vietnamese Aviation Thread - 2021

Interesting. So if you believe it could get away at anywhere near that price, you should be loading up on FLC.
Unless there are some other issues in FLC.

Either way seems like a ridiculously ambitious price.

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by moa999
Sat Mar 20, 2021 12:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Vietnamese Aviation Thread - 2021
Replies: 63
Views: 7438

Re: Vietnamese Aviation Thread - 2021

Would be a massive return for the founders, if that price is correct. But doesn't seem anywhere near the right time to IPO an airline. What value did Qantas sell out of Pacific for? And by comparison VJC.HN (VietJet) has an MCap of US$3bn, AAGB.MK (AirAsia) has a market cap of just above US$1bn, and...

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by moa999
Wed Mar 17, 2021 9:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy
Replies: 421
Views: 97286

Re: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy

A loan forbearance/forgiveness would likely show up as a one-off $160m hit to profit at Delta, but no change in cash position. These minority foreign investments certainly make things difficult when receiving government cash in the primary country. We've seen a few move to the exit doors. Qantas sol...

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by moa999
Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:17 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see anything like The Residences ever again?
Replies: 25
Views: 3923

Re: Will we ever see anything like The Residences ever again?

Emirates probably got the best amenity value out of the space (though Qantas's refresh was OK, in the first version the left side was a CSM station).

But Etihad actually tried to monetise it.

Though it'd be interesting to see if they got much paid utilisation out of the space.

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by moa999
Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021
Replies: 329
Views: 48587

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

https://youtu.be/q5dD_Xpoems
-->

Will we see Amazon Air as one of the freight operators at WSA.

Constructing a massive warehouse at Kemp's Creek (about 5km from Badgery's) intended to serve the Australian East Coast.

https://youtu.be/q5dD_Xpoems

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by moa999
Tue Mar 09, 2021 7:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska Airlines Fleet/Network Thread - 2021
Replies: 1557
Views: 199938

Re: Alskan airlines joining oneworld

Maybe mod can change the glaring spelling. Think the most interesting thing will be changed to the AS FF program. AS currently have three elite tiers. MVP, MVP Gold and MVP Gold 75k, so matches oneworld's 3 tiers. Like AA they only have a paid lounge access program, so I'd expect some similar exclus...

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by moa999
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:01 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021
Replies: 329
Views: 48587

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

Indonesia may be keen, but until they get Covid under control, I expect other countries may not be so keen to let there citizens travel to a hotspot.

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by moa999
Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:56 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021
Replies: 329
Views: 48587

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

I tend to agree that some of the destination SE Asian routes may be more popular.

Less so Bali/Indonesia.

But Thailand, Taiwan and Japan also have pretty good Covid records.

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by moa999
Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021
Replies: 329
Views: 48587

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

^ Tullamarine

While I agree QF might try and ditch the suite for domestic business, I don't think even they would be stupid enough to go back to 2x3x2 given the reaction when the took the 330s in that config.

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by moa999
Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021
Replies: 329
Views: 48587

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - March 2021

If you live in a regional town in Australia, you will quickly see that Australia has a hub system.

Or more particularly a hub and trunk system.

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by moa999
Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: QF posts $1.1b half-year loss.
Replies: 18
Views: 2288

Re: Ouch! QF posts $1.1b half-year loss.

Agreed traveller confidence is low.
And domestic yields (with Rex starting up) are also very low.

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by moa999
Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 381
Views: 64188

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

The Malaysian High Court has ordered AAX to meet with creditors. Plan is that "....lessors can expect to recover at least 60% of what the airline owed them" https://www.aerotime.aero/27298-AirAsia-X-new-restructuring-plan-creditor-meeting Be nice to get more details.. Presumably that's no...

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by moa999
Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Vietnamese Aviation Thread - 2021
Replies: 63
Views: 7438

Re: Vietnamese Aviation Thread - 2021

Has any information come out about Bamboos shareholding after the reported 49% sale, with FLC Group reporting in 2020 that it only controlled 51%?

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by moa999
Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: QF - Project Sunrise
Replies: 388
Views: 69159

Re: QF - Project Sunrise

The one area I could see premium international traffic working for SWZ are overnight flights from Sydney to South East Asia - Singapore, Jakarta etc. . First 10+ years I agree. And maybe some NZ narrow bodies I would have said AirAsiaX was a likely mover (they like cheaper airport fees) if they sur...

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by moa999
Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: QF - Project Sunrise
Replies: 388
Views: 69159

Re: QF - Project Sunrise

For the first 10/20 years they will be driving to SYD. Remember SWZ starts tiny.

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by moa999
Mon Feb 08, 2021 2:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: QF - Project Sunrise
Replies: 388
Views: 69159

Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Personally don't see them using 35Ks where a 789 will reach more efficiently but I could be wrong (particularly if a route can support F) Also a question as to how many they order. At 21hrs flight time you are looking at 2.5 frames per service (4 hrs changeover plus say 5hrs maintenance allocation o...

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by moa999
Mon Feb 08, 2021 1:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: QF - Project Sunrise
Replies: 388
Views: 69159

Re: QF - Project Sunrise

With direct JFK services I can't see LAX-JFK continuing (plus QF will likely need the 789s) JFK direct would also reduce DFW demand, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it downgraded to a 789 as well (which will alleviate the weight issues on the westerly routes as well). So you'd have 35K to JFK, 789...

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by moa999
Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: QF - Project Sunrise
Replies: 388
Views: 69159

Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Agreed lots of personal prefs.

Knew someone who used to fly the overnight HKG-MEL flight when heading to SYD and MEL as they got a better sleep

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by moa999
Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 381
Views: 64188

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

^ Note that is for AA Group, not AAX.

Raising seemingly done at 68c a share (last close was 76c).
AAG also sold its 33% stake in Air Asia India to Tata Group

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by moa999
Wed Feb 03, 2021 6:15 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: QF - Project Sunrise
Replies: 388
Views: 69159

Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Agree the EK partnership is still needed for the best one stop to most of Europe, although I wouldn't be surprised to see some BA codeshares come back. As for LHR - remember QF had historically only been operating 2 daily flights in and leasing out other slots. If Sunrise gets up I'd see. Daily Sydn...

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by moa999
Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: QF - Project Sunrise
Replies: 388
Views: 69159

Re: QF - Project Sunrise

Why are we obsessed with this being about yield? What about it actually being an efficient way to travel where you actually want to go? Wouldn't say anyone is obsessed about yield but QF needs a yield premium to make this a success. Everything about this is a compromise - paying Airbus for addition...

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