Search found 327 matches

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by Exeiowa
Thu Aug 06, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is there an airline worldwide that’s not losing money ?
Replies: 49
Views: 10617

Re: Is there an airline worldwide that’s not losing money ?

Ziyulu wrote:
If US carriers just didn't fly, they would not lose so much money.


They have to so their money making credit cards keep going! (thats a joke)

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by Exeiowa
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787
Replies: 174
Views: 33956

Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

At this point I am thinking that Boeing would make more money selling 787s instead of 777X to the same airlines but as they have already bet on this horse its a bit late.

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by Exeiowa
Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production
Replies: 152
Views: 22413

Re: Boeing Confirms 747 Production Will End in 2022, Delays 777X Entry to 2022, Reduces 787/777/777X Production

The consolidation part is not surprising. It seems daft to run two production lines only producing three planes a month each. So given the -10 is currently only produced at Charleston, does that suggest all 787 production moving there? Unless Boeing finds a way to ship 787-10 fuselages to Everett f...

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by Exeiowa
Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 337
Views: 40927

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Despite unemployment spiking massively and lots of people not being able to travel the provision of good and services has continued, suggesting a lot of what was being done was non productive work. A lot of people are employed to do work that does not need to be done. That might be the big lesson fr...

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by Exeiowa
Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Inching towards a collapse of the leasing industry
Replies: 56
Views: 15528

Re: Inching towards a collapse of the leasing industry

There are many misconceptions in this thread about leasing. The large lessors, e.g. AerCap, ALC, GECAS, have very diverse portfolios and strong liquidity to support their operations for years without any rent. There are definitely going to be bumps in the road as wide body aircraft are returned in ...

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by Exeiowa
Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787
Replies: 174
Views: 33956

Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

The problem the 777X has is that the 787 has proved to very capable and fewer customers need the larger planes additional capacity and range compared to earlier generations of aircraft. There really is not anyway round this.

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by Exeiowa
Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Inching towards a collapse of the leasing industry
Replies: 56
Views: 15528

Re: Inching towards a collapse of the leasing industry

This is a point I have been bringing up in other threads that has not been taken up. The reason that airlines have received support is so they can continue to make payments to the finance companies (lenders and lessors) otherwise they could have laid people off and the government pay unemployment di...

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by Exeiowa
Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons
Replies: 376
Views: 55044

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

...press does not mean anything anymore - as you say, they have become numb. People know what to do & are protecting themselves in various ways, and have stopped listening to the constantly changing narative. They got the point & can read between the lines. You will see more increases in pa...

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by Exeiowa
Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Relatively few bankruptcies so far
Replies: 20
Views: 3368

Re: Relatively few bankruptcies so far

A totalitarian government like China will do thing a democracy cannot to control a pandemic and Europe had much stricter lock down than the US. The stricter countries are getting over it quicker, and are ready to pounce to get it back under control at the hint of flair ups. In the US you can pretty ...

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by Exeiowa
Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Relatively few bankruptcies so far
Replies: 20
Views: 3368

Re: Relatively few bankruptcies so far

Banks and leasing companies have been slow to pull the plug because the seized assets cannot be reallocated easily. Plus the crises has been a quick one, with a rapid plunge down rather than a steady worsening, takes longer to wrinkle out the failures. If you look across Europe and US airlines are n...

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by Exeiowa
Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787
Replies: 174
Views: 33956

Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Large planes are only needed for range, frequency trumps capacity and the 787 hit the sweet spot in capability that's why it will not be as popular as previous versions of this plane. The question then becomes will the airlines that originally ordered be in a shape to receive it. The answer to that ...

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by Exeiowa
Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Large German Corporations Lobbying Against Advance Payments for Airline Tickets
Replies: 108
Views: 12838

Re: Large German Corporations Lobbying Against Advance Payments for Airline Tickets

The problem with the systems seems to be that it broke down, and one party is unable or unwilling to uphold it contractual obligation. Having been unable to do so the discussion is about if an alternative system is needed to prevent a party from saying sorry you are out of luck try again later. At t...

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by Exeiowa
Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Large German Corporations Lobbying Against Advance Payments for Airline Tickets
Replies: 108
Views: 12838

Re: Large German Corporations Lobbying Against Advance Payments for Airline Tickets

Systems get changed when they are shown not to work. If the corporate entities band together they can probably force some changes.

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by Exeiowa
Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 News and Reference Thread
Replies: 457
Views: 220255

Re: COVID-19 News and Reference Thread

American and United delay return to Hong Kong because of COVID testing rules.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/09/american-united-call-off-hong-kong-flights-after-crew-testing-rules.html

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by Exeiowa
Wed Jul 08, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons
Replies: 376
Views: 55044

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

So we continue to improve in terms of TSA screenings. For the past four weeks, the average change versus prior year has increased by 2.9%. If we extrapolate 10 weeks (roughly early Sept), the rate has only improved to -45%. Again, lots of anecdotal evidence flying around. Big increases in a number ...

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by Exeiowa
Wed Jul 08, 2020 6:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of AirAsia in "Significant Doubt" - auditor Ernst & Young
Replies: 21
Views: 5547

Re: Future of AirAsia in "Significant Doubt" - auditor Ernst & Young

Various changes went into auditing after Enron and Anderson. There is a requirement in many places to change auditors every few years to prevent cozy relationships developing. From my friend who was an auditor tells me auditing is not very profitable it is mostly used as a way to capture more lucrat...

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by Exeiowa
Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Airlines taking advantage of Covid in the long term
Replies: 30
Views: 2822

Re: Winners of Covid

I think "winner" = least damaged. There will be airlines that go under during this time, and others that take significant hits. As things return to normal you would expect the more healthy to take out some of the weaker competitors. Who survives best is probably down to a combination of lo...

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by Exeiowa
Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA reconsidering seatback video screens
Replies: 107
Views: 16340

Re: AA reconsidering seatback video screens

Many now just don't have the same preference for paper in their hands. Whether it be crosswords, word searches or an actual book, the number of people that use that for entertainment are getting smaller by the day. Oh, believe me, I know! I'm 53. I suspect that people from around my generation may ...

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by Exeiowa
Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons
Replies: 376
Views: 55044

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

I have some thoughts, on these stats. Those that die seem to be about 4-6 weeks after infection. At this time with more resources it is likely that people are being found sooner after infection than at the beginning for the US, therefore the difference between rise in infections and rise in deaths w...

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by Exeiowa
Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020
Replies: 95
Views: 18892

Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

I don't think we will have a market clearing price but rather a market clearing time, because owning an airplane induces cost (storage, maintenance, financing charge). The phrase the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, seems an appropriate one for an entity looking to take a...

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by Exeiowa
Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders
Replies: 253
Views: 59846

Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Leasing companies might start getting to a leverage problem. I suspect a lot of that money used is borrowed and with a drop in value of owned frames their ability to borrow money to fund additional purchases would be effected. Cutting of troubled airlines from lease back agreements will hasten their...

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by Exeiowa
Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Emirates to consider smaller aircraft
Replies: 40
Views: 8708

Re: Official: Emirates to consider adding narrow body aircraft

As I said in the deleted thread, at this point it would just make more sense to merge FlyDubai and Emirates. FlyDubai already has a full service hard product, at least on the Maxes. Unsure what their soft product is like but that obviously could be changed. That sums it up. FlyDubai is the regional...

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by Exeiowa
Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Emirates to consider smaller aircraft
Replies: 40
Views: 8708

Re: Official: Emirates to consider adding narrow body aircraft

They do not have to go out and acquire new builds right now, there will be plenty of gently used frames available now and into the near future which people would happily give up.

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by Exeiowa
Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 337
Views: 40927

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

If I was planning to travel long distance right now in the US, I would not be contemplating flying, but would instead drive, that way I can control who and when I interact with people. Even if you're willing to sleep in your car that may not work depending on your routing. Lots of states still have...

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by Exeiowa
Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: American Airlines Business & Finance Discussion
Replies: 354
Views: 65635

Re: AA 5-yr secured notes $2.5 Billion yield 12.03%

Coupon yield of 11.75% sold at 99% provides a 5-yr yield to maturity of 12.028%. A question posed by Clint Eastwood in Dirty Harry : You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky? [i]FORT WORTH, Texas — American Airlines, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL) (the “Company”) today announced that it priced...

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by Exeiowa
Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 337
Views: 40927

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

If I was planning to travel long distance right now in the US, I would not be contemplating flying, but would instead drive, that way I can control who and when I interact with people. Its interesting that the inter-regional travel is what is effected, by being first the NE now the south meaning tha...

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by Exeiowa
Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: American Airlines Business & Finance Discussion
Replies: 354
Views: 65635

Re: AA 5-yr secured notes $2.5 Billion yield 12.03%

Interesting to note how different parts of the financial markets are pricing the current situation. Seems people are operating from very different assumptions.

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by Exeiowa
Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 337
Views: 40927

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Then don't fly. Completely your choice. Completely understandable. I am not planning to. Nor travel by another means as I am currently in one of the few areas of the US with very few cases. Going anywhere else would increase my risk dramatically. My company has relaxed some vendor service visit res...

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by Exeiowa
Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 337
Views: 40927

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

My current worry is not that if I got it that I would immediately die, but rather what the long term implications might be. Research in to the effects of the virus keep turning up more extensive body damage than just lungs. It might be that people who get infected get long term chronic conditions a...

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by Exeiowa
Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.
Replies: 24
Views: 2613

Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

I thought the lesson of the last generation of airplanes was when engine tech is ready then build a new plane. Otherwise you get rather caught out. So when the ultrafan or what ever else comes on stream then design an aircraft to most utilize it.

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by Exeiowa
Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 337
Views: 40927

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

My current worry is not that if I got it that I would immediately die, but rather what the long term implications might be. Research in to the effects of the virus keep turning up more extensive body damage than just lungs. It might be that people who get infected get long term chronic conditions as...

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by Exeiowa
Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United A350 orders
Replies: 29
Views: 5058

Re: United A350 orders

In the aftermath of COVID no one is going to have the cash on hand to do much development so the currently offered line up of planes is what people will be picking from for the foreseeable future.

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by Exeiowa
Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020
Replies: 95
Views: 18892

Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

With the health and financial aspects of this with big unknowns, I think one of the hallmarks of this might be how regionalised the return of travel maybe. Its clear that some regions of the world have had quicker responses and controls than others. Some parts of the world lack the resources to tack...

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by Exeiowa
Fri Jun 19, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Frequent Flying, Status and Coronavirus
Replies: 6
Views: 732

Frequent Flying, Status and Coronavirus

So one of the things that makes flying palatable to many is the accumulation of perks by frequently using the service. One of these is status this thing which will give you benefits in the future to your level of comfort. a lot of flights that are used to build a persons status are from company paye...

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by Exeiowa
Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA monetizing frequent flyer program for $5B liquidity
Replies: 37
Views: 6081

Re: UA monetizing frequent flyer program for $5B liquidity

When Jet Airways was going through its death spiral one of its early actions was to sell off its loyalty program, do not imagine that worked out well for the buyer. The fact that something like this can have such a high perceived value is an indication of how strange our capital markets can be.

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by Exeiowa
Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA monetizing frequent flyer program for $5B liquidity
Replies: 37
Views: 6081

Re: UA monetizing frequent flyer program for $5B liquidity

The perceived value of miles by customers might diminish in the future if this pandemic situation lingers. Why use a card to accumulate miles that you do not expect to use. That only comes in to play if this lasts a long time. But cutting off an airline from this source of revenue would be quite dam...

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by Exeiowa
Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United eliminates 13 executive positions
Replies: 50
Views: 14261

Re: United eliminates 13 executive positions

Community Relations and Goodwill is important to just about any major corporation these days as it's more cost effective to retain good customers than acquire new ones. Clearly some people here aren't cut out for true leadership positions but by all means, bitch and flame away. These positions exis...

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by Exeiowa
Fri May 29, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Development paths for new scope compliant aircraft.
Replies: 355
Views: 16647

Re: Development paths for new scope compliant aircraft.

Owners and shareholders may momentarily lose their assets during the process... I don't think you understand bankruptcy. It's not a momentary loss of assets - they are GONE if assets don't exceed renegotiated liabilities. Cancelling the common stock is not an uncommon move in Chapter 11. June 11, 2...

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by Exeiowa
Tue May 26, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Development paths for new scope compliant aircraft.
Replies: 355
Views: 16647

Re: Development paths for new scope compliant aircraft.

There is so much RJ flying they have to do something it would cut off a lot of feeder traffic and a lot of RJ to RJ (ie switching RJs at a hub) flying.that is available to passengers now. For what is a worse customer experience compared to say a 737 or 320 its not cheaper to buy tickets, suggesting ...

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by Exeiowa
Tue May 26, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Development paths for new scope compliant aircraft.
Replies: 355
Views: 16647

Re: Development paths for new scope compliant aircraft.

Unless someone is going to build an extensive rail network in US there will be a need for something to do what RJ do. If that can only be done with a Prop that is what we will end up with. A lot of my business travel involved two RJs connecting small cities (chemical plants and suppliers tend to be...

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by Exeiowa
Tue May 26, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Development paths for new scope compliant aircraft.
Replies: 355
Views: 16647

Re: Development paths for new scope compliant aircraft.

Unless someone is going to build an extensive rail network in US there will be a need for something to do what RJ do. If that can only be done with a Prop that is what we will end up with. A lot of my business travel involved two RJs connecting small cities (chemical plants and suppliers tend to be ...

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by Exeiowa
Fri May 22, 2020 7:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Etihad Considers Retiring A380s and Abandoning A350s
Replies: 104
Views: 26427

Re: Rumor: Etihad Considers Retiring A380s and Abandoning A350s

What we see here is political reality meeting economic reality, we will see which one wins in the end.

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by Exeiowa
Fri May 22, 2020 7:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet
Replies: 504
Views: 91129

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

There problem might be as we open up the middle east simply gets bypassed as smaller planes with sufficient range take what passengers there are.

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by Exeiowa
Fri May 22, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Etihad Considers Retiring A380s and Abandoning A350s
Replies: 104
Views: 26427

Re: Rumor: Etihad Considers Retiring A380s and Abandoning A350s

It almost feels like their day in the sunshine is coming to an end, where they will be "just another" airline rather than this existential threat or higher luxury brand. And as with many things times change, as technology changes and travel patterns adjust, they are becoming just another m...

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by Exeiowa
Wed May 20, 2020 7:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Time for the airlines to restart advertising
Replies: 114
Views: 10443

Re: Time for the airlines to restart advertising

To be fair large meetings in groups are not that great for many of those things either there value is often in the mixing of people outside the formal part of the meeting. I have sat through so many in person meeting where the same could have been accomplished in 3 paragraph email. Decision based me...

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by Exeiowa
Wed May 20, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: American Airlines Business & Finance Discussion
Replies: 354
Views: 65635

Re: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK

At this point I am not worried about AA so much as debt contagion, AA might be alright in isolation but if we start to see a run on credit they become vulnerable. I have seen the phrase credit default swaps come up, this is the instrument that spread the GFC from mortgages to everything else well it...

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by Exeiowa
Wed May 20, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Chicago River Flooding Causes Willis Tower (United Airlines HQ) to lose power.
Replies: 45
Views: 7996

Re: Chicago River Flooding Causes Willis Tower (United Airlines HQ) to lose power.

In these days of COVID-19 the idea that they need the Willis tower site would probably be the one questioned so that they could be in a place where they can have more room for employees and less on one site....

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by Exeiowa
Fri May 15, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet
Replies: 747
Views: 117448

Re: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet

But before the Pandemic cargo prices were in the gutter so using a more expensive aircraft to transport cheap cargo doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. There has to be something else in this equation that I'm missing. I suspect it was merely a case of having spare 77L's and putting them where they...

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by Exeiowa
Thu May 14, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"
Replies: 135
Views: 31057

Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

The infection rate across the middle east including UAE looks like its in the exponential phase at this time. So now they have to contend with if people would want to travel through the area as well as risk of origin and destination.

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by Exeiowa
Tue May 12, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,
Replies: 308
Views: 41549

Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

I can tell you working in private industry is not as efficient as "the market" would let you believe. I know of armies of peoples existance is only to provide additional non useful work for others. Lets say they leaned production but never management.

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