Search found 1426 matches

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by smartplane
Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Norwegian Air Cancels Orders For 92 737 MAXs and 5 787s
Replies: 126
Views: 23193

Re: Norwegian Air Cancels Orders For 92 737 MAXs and 5 787s

A very important milestone is approaching for MAX customer compensation, whether they are still on contract V2.0, or executed V3.0 (two tier). If you no longer need your MAX order, the 'take your money and run' window of opportunity to maximise compensation / minimise default payments has arrived.

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by smartplane
Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747
Replies: 327
Views: 49097

Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

You people have no nuance. Maybe not, but we do have common sense. Boeing has supposedly lost $40 million per frame since 2016. They've delivered 36 frames since then, so that would be just under $1.5 billion USD they would need to recover, in addition to the $40 million extra it costs per frame wi...

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by smartplane
Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread
Replies: 483
Views: 60349

Re: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread

lightsaber wrote:
At this time, I do not expect HiFly to lease another and I expect their A380 to be retired when a HMV is due.

No chance HiFly will lease an AF A380 as these aircraft are not subject to an OEM buyback.

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by smartplane
Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 747-8I Fleet Tracking Thread 2020
Replies: 29
Views: 8646

Re: Boeing 747-8I Fleet Tracking Thread 2020

Qatar government A7-HBJ That makes sense with the paint job.and perhaps the businessman referenced in the article is long term leasing the BBJ from Qatar Amiri.Flights I guess that means that the customized BBJ N458BJ not taken up by Saudis is still owned and stored by Boeing Business Jets. Per the...

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by smartplane
Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020
Replies: 1289
Views: 244280

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020

Emirates COO saying it’s not clear if Boeing would deliver the 777X next year. Has something come up? Although he says they are not tin talks to cancel any orders. https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/06/25/business/25reuters-health-coronavirus-emirates-airline.html I'd say that there's 3 possible ...

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by smartplane
Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Emirates to consider smaller aircraft
Replies: 40
Views: 8641

Re: Official: Emirates to consider adding narrow body aircraft

As I said in the deleted thread, at this point it would just make more sense to merge FlyDubai and Emirates. FlyDubai already has a full service hard product, at least on the Maxes. Unsure what their soft product is like but that obviously could be changed. Over the last 4 years, both entities have...

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by smartplane
Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qantas to sack 6000 employees, ground 100 aircraft until mid 2021, retires 747 fleet early
Replies: 79
Views: 13871

Re: Qantas to sack 6000 employees, ground 100 aircraft until mid 2021, retires 747 fleet early

Looks like all 12 A380's are going to Mojave now. 3 years is optimistic I think, and really only indicates that the current 3 year plan (what was released this morning), doesn't include the A380 at all. I suspect its finished. https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/qantas-a380-retirement I noticed...

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by smartplane
Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020
Replies: 214
Views: 25245

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Has anyone tried using NZ credits yet? I got the email about them this morning and had a read through the FAQs and I remain a bit confused about how I might select the flights/options I want, especially when the site says it might be up to 14 days until they get back to me if I use the form - fares...

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by smartplane
Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end
Replies: 140
Views: 33819

Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

MoKa777 wrote:
An order (even heavily discounted) for 777X/787 will require some percentage paid as a deposit/down payment now.

Unlikely. Most customers apply existing accrued credits held with the OEM.

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by smartplane
Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022
Replies: 103
Views: 17628

Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

But as to airlines none are guaranteed. A very good way to be one of the ones that don’t survive is to aggravate both A&B, and AAB seems to be doing his best to do just that. They may both continue to sell to him, but will not give him their best deals or work with him when he has problems. Tha...

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by smartplane
Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet
Replies: 348
Views: 69770

Re: Emirates Airbus A380 Deliveries

Will Airbus and Boeing want to lower the 'order' bar in the current environment? A queue of customers are asking for the same generosity. Can Airbus even afford to forgive? What about the engine contract, negotiated separately? And behind the scenes, don't rule out lobbying from another ME nation, a...

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by smartplane
Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q2 2020
Replies: 607
Views: 56241

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q2 2020

But once again that "moment" assumes that commercial goals driving "unacceptable" engineering decisions and the subsequent crashes is the actual cause and effect. We can speculate all we want about what happened in development, but short of hard, directly linked evidence between...

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by smartplane
Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How many airlines order aircraft to support domestic jobs?
Replies: 13
Views: 1673

Re: How many airlines order aircraft to support domestic jobs?

Twenty plus decades ago, it took as long to negotiate offsets as it did the aircraft order. And then there was the monitoring and enforcement overhead. Now, Government shareholdings in airlines are less common, and offsets generate scrutiny, usually by the unsuccessful OEM, and have been criticised ...

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by smartplane
Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:25 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020
Replies: 214
Views: 25245

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2020

Hmm that puts that theory to bed then. Could be that they have pre-committed cycles/hours on these leased frames that they wont to use up before being returned to lease companies. Where they could be saving hours/cycles on the owned fleet, to retain value on them. You could well be right there, I’m...

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by smartplane
Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022
Replies: 103
Views: 17628

Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

QR discussions are mirrored across every airline and lessor with new aircraft on order, though less publicly. OEM's would prefer not to establish public cancellation / deferral precedents, especially as these could also inadvertently reveal 'below the line' incentives. What QR and others do in resp...

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by smartplane
Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022
Replies: 103
Views: 17628

Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

QR discussions are mirrored across every airline and lessor with new aircraft on order, though less publicly. OEM's would prefer not to establish public cancellation / deferral precedents, especially as these could also inadvertently reveal 'below the line' incentives. What QR and others do in respe...

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by smartplane
Sat Jun 13, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet
Replies: 348
Views: 69770

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Most EK A380 leases are 12 years with lessee option of fixed term rollovers, or in less good times (but much better than today) switch to 'on demand' FBTH until the lessor can find a new home. Interesting to see if it remains stored in the region, with EK mitigating end of lease (EOL) costs by prov...

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by smartplane
Sat Jun 13, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q2 2020
Replies: 607
Views: 56241

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q2 2020

This is ridiculous. Such a rule would limit the lifetime of any aircraft type to 20 years and not one day further. It would mean that even minor changes would be cost prohibitive for older aircraft. For example, cargo conversion kits would need to be certified within 20 years after the original, or...

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by smartplane
Sat Jun 13, 2020 7:13 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will Emirates have to completely change business model?
Replies: 17
Views: 2329

Re: Will Emirates have to completely change business model?

EK / Dubai already making changes: 1. Country / DXB - welcoming a broader range of airlines, and more frequency from existing, with stimulus package. 2. Freight - targetting air and sea business, especially currently routed through HKG. 3. EK and FZ - increased co-operation. 4. Airports - DWC migrat...

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by smartplane
Sat Jun 13, 2020 6:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: BA could make up to 12,000 employees redundant
Replies: 309
Views: 56294

Re: BA could make up to 12,000 employees redundant

gunnerman wrote:
I am absolutely certain that British Airways Pension Trustees Limited will not sell assets of its two pension schemes to bail out BA.

But will they need to liquidate assets to pay out employees made redundant en masse who opt to take lump sum payments?

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by smartplane
Sat Jun 13, 2020 3:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 Fleet Tracking Thread 2020
Replies: 44
Views: 11110

Re: Airbus A380 Fleet Tracking Thread 2020

White Emirates A380 seen in DXB https://twitter.com/breakingavnews/status/1271531523838279682 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EaViuffXgAQ_9UV?format=jpg&name=small So in September 2019, Tim Clark said they already removed two A380s from service, which were reported to be A6-EEK and A6-EEH: https://...

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by smartplane
Sat Jun 13, 2020 3:07 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet
Replies: 348
Views: 69770

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Most EK A380 leases are 12 years with lessee option of fixed term rollovers, or in less good times (but much better than today) switch to 'on demand' FBTH until the lessor can find a new home. Interesting to see if it remains stored in the region, with EK mitigating end of lease (EOL) costs by provi...

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by smartplane
Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS
Replies: 240
Views: 42111

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

Cargo weight is down, but much more money being paid out due to the loss of belly freight in pax flights: I'm excited about the 777xF. Partially as the market needs it as there is going to be far more available 777-300ER (and LR) to convert (prices already down 13% in last 3 months per flowing link...

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by smartplane
Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020
Replies: 86
Views: 16023

Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Winter 2020

Leeham has an interesting table on aircraft values and lease rates: https://leehamnews.com/2020/06/10/hotr-boeing-still-sees-max-3q-recertification/#more-33677 We are paralleling post 2001 for aircraft values/lease rates, however, I think the magnitude and duration will be longer. :cry2: As will po...

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by smartplane
Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:52 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)
Replies: 48
Views: 8026

Re: Boeing Sales Considering Moving Up 777-8F Program? (Leeham News)

More to do with internal Boeing dialogue and positioning, than material customer interest / demand. Defending the X from the all conquering 787, also lobbying to offer an F derivative. Will the Board support both?

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by smartplane
Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Austria to introduce minimum price for plane tickets
Replies: 176
Views: 16414

Re: Austria to introduce minimum price for plane tickets

Seem to me they want a minimum amount of tax and fees to be paid no matter the base fare. It makes sense and may be necessary to maintain facilities fee revenues and general tax income to the country. Also a recurring theme / suggestion at CORSIA workshops initially based on distance bands. The ult...

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by smartplane
Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus threatens to sue airlines
Replies: 104
Views: 20140

Re: Airbus threatens to sue airlines

Airlines has placed orders when the economic conditions were right and they want to deffer and cancel them when the economic cinditions are bad. If they (the airlines) are not allowed to cancel and deffer, how can they afford to pay for the airplanes. This must be a tactical move by Airbus, so the ...

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by smartplane
Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus threatens to sue airlines
Replies: 104
Views: 20140

Re: Airbus threatens to sue airlines

That is not true, a majority of the payment is due at time of delivery, not before. This is especially true in recent years with many of the big orders that airlines have been placing (with OEM encouragement) to boost OEM’s numbers in order race that have had very favorable (for the airline) predel...

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by smartplane
Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus wants governments to finance a scrappage scheme
Replies: 53
Views: 7971

Re: Airbus wants governments to finance a scrappage scheme

However, the source of the news has to be taken with a huge chunk of salt! There are no reports in French or German language, as of now. There was a Lufthansa press conference recently, where CEO Spohr also siad, that such a program would be really nice and new planes would safe so much CO2. Guess ...

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by smartplane
Sat Jun 06, 2020 9:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end
Replies: 140
Views: 33819

Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

I am going to put my money on CN3: Air China, China Eastern or China Southern. All have B787 in fleet. And all have a cargo unit. Air China is B748 operator. All three have B777-300ER. China has a trade agreement to fulfil. Some may argue China wants to renege on the current US-China trade agreemen...

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by smartplane
Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:20 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus threatens to sue airlines
Replies: 104
Views: 20140

Re: Airbus threatens to sue airlines

Law prefers consistency, choosing to not enforce contract requirements for one does set precedent for another to sue to get out of that contract requirement, so it is much better to enforce the contract. If the current contract is unenforceable it is time to sit down to negotiate a contract change ...

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by smartplane
Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders
Replies: 190
Views: 47813

Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

https://www.yahoo.com/news/airbus-warns-may-sue-airlines-150623367.html Airbus may sue if airlines do not take aircraft ordered. We knew it would get messy, Now claims of a glut of aircraft on the market and Boeing and Airbus led to it. "Faury told Politico that some airlines, which he did not...

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by smartplane
Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,
Replies: 308
Views: 41366

Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

Debt convenants don't look at stock prices but at ratings. When triggered, financial institutions don't care about the stock price, they only care about their own financial position which will be impacted when outstanding loans are downgraded. Moreover, some funds are forbidden to iinvest in less t...

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by smartplane
Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK
Replies: 304
Views: 53249

Re: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK

I think WN's recent announcement that they plan to be back up to 98.5% of their pre-COVID number of flights by October 1st might be forcing AA's hand. They will have to get their most of their fleet back in the air in the same timeframe, or risk losing signifcant market share in the recovery. Addin...

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by smartplane
Thu Jun 04, 2020 5:01 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: LEAP engines on 737 and A320 fall way short of on-wing targets
Replies: 42
Views: 11151

Re: LEAP engines on 737 and A320 fall way short of on-wing targets

New generation engines will never feature the same wing time as the old generation because the core runs hotter, resulting in more wear and tear. Everyone working in the industry knows this. So are you telling us CMF planned it this way, engines with only 6.000 hours of wing time and costly engine ...

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by smartplane
Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q2 2020
Replies: 607
Views: 56241

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, May 2020

The impairment is a given. What to me is more interesting is deferments rather than cancellations, and agreement to accept some future discounts rather than all cash, which will keep them likely to stay a MAX customer going forward. Which is Boeing's preferred option, however, I expect our resident...

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by smartplane
Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: LEAP engines on 737 and A320 fall way short of on-wing targets
Replies: 42
Views: 11151

Re: LEAP engines on 737 and A320 fall way short of on-wing targets

GE and PW must be very relieved most customers purchased bundled 737 / A320 packages (turnkey), without engines negotiated separately, so very little PBTH. However, A & B, seeing a revenue generating opportunity offered PBTH without engine OEM underwriting. OK while warranty arguments prevail an...

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by smartplane
Sun May 31, 2020 9:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747
Replies: 327
Views: 49097

Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Doubt upside opportunities for the 748 are worth much Board and senior management time. A far more relevant internal debate that should be going on, is between the 787 and 777 teams. We can offer a 2nd wing option with X-style fold, an 11 stretch (A350 beater) and 7 shrink for less money than the X,...

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by smartplane
Sun May 31, 2020 8:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet
Replies: 348
Views: 69770

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

First of all, comparing against list price is a bit pointless as nobody pays full price. And secondly, resale value is not an issue for Emirates because they don't own the bulk of the A380s. Emirates will return the aircraft to the lessors. So it' a problem for the lessor, not Emirates. I am not an...

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by smartplane
Sun May 31, 2020 3:55 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747
Replies: 327
Views: 49097

Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Where exactly is this whole 747 passing the ICAO 2028 standard but 777 not, coming from? I think even by the absolute most optimistic perspective, the idea that a new standard being instituted by 2028 will save the 747 line is more than a bit far fetched. Standard applies to new build aircraft manu...

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by smartplane
Sat May 30, 2020 8:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777 Production/Delivery Thread - 2020
Replies: 153
Views: 35634

Re: Boeing 777 Production/Delivery Thread - 2020

Wow, very interesting, thanks for posting. So l/n1657 will be a white-tail for now until this dispute is settled ? Also if it's leased from DAE Capital, isn't the delivery made to them and not directly to VDA ? Then surely it's up to DAE who they place the aircraft with. If the latter, would be DAE...

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by smartplane
Sat May 30, 2020 7:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet
Replies: 725
Views: 110082

Re: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet

UA444 wrote:
Ordering 777-800s to get out of the 717s seems like massive overkill. They’d probably order 737s

Forgive the 717 leases and replace with new 737 leases was the offer earlier this year.

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by smartplane
Fri May 29, 2020 8:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread
Replies: 483
Views: 60349

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

A whole load of rubbish here but I’ll just reply to mine Most of which is incorrect 1. Difficult to finance? That’s why BA told Airbus the 380 was way to expensive. You'll note I didn't argue that the A380 wasn't expensive/difficult to finance. The implication that the 777X had many of the bad simi...

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by smartplane
Thu May 28, 2020 9:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747
Replies: 327
Views: 49097

Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Such internal debate is healthy, though not so much when leaked. It happened previously, when contract terms were modified to prevent customers from selling 'in demand' orders to 3rd parties, before being built, at a profit. And again when B adopted template contracts for small and medium sized cust...

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by smartplane
Mon May 25, 2020 5:05 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread
Replies: 483
Views: 60349

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

Did Airbus guarantee the residual value of any A380s for any airlines or leasing companies? Don't presume Boeing has no exposure to A380 residual values. A & B offer unsolicited buybacks on A & B models, even before a customer starts the acquisition process. And certainly do so when specifi...

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by smartplane
Sun May 24, 2020 10:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread
Replies: 483
Views: 60349

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

All maiden leases have early termination clauses and penalties, including a holding charge if the lessor can't find a new operator for them. There will likely be adverse tax implications. End of lease requirements will still apply, including pro rata inspection and maintenance payments, re-paint an...

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by smartplane
Sun May 24, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates Group announces $456 million profit for 2019/2020
Replies: 17
Views: 3490

Re: Emirates Group announces $456 million profit for 2019/2020

Plus if you don't make your payments on your loans I just apply in London to have you wound up and take my assets. I mean I'm not gonna but I can. That unfortunately is the attitude of many financiers, and disproportionately from the USA, and increasingly the EU, who in tough times, can seem like f...

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by smartplane
Sun May 24, 2020 10:26 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates Group announces $456 million profit for 2019/2020
Replies: 17
Views: 3490

Re: Emirates Group announces $456 million profit for 2019/2020

Emirates annual reports are transparently opaque, oxymoron but true. No one knows if they really have $7B cash. No one knows what is their burn rate. I'm not sure if this is some kind of philosophical statement or just a misunderstanding of how financial statements are produced and later audited. I...

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by smartplane
Sun May 24, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread
Replies: 483
Views: 60349

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

So what happens to the leases while these planes are stored? Will AF still pay them or will they find a way to get out of the leasing contracts? They will negociate. AF said the A380 phase out from their fleet will cost them around 500M€. In this number there is an estimated amount they Will pay To...

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by smartplane
Sat May 23, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy
Replies: 282
Views: 53216

Re: LATAM moving towards bankruptcy

Well...yes...Every single privately owned airline in the whole planet is “towards bankruptcy” in the current scenario. Only the Airlines supported by endless flows of money like Emirates or Etihad can escape to the “towards bankruptcy” qualification. Same for Hotels, Cruise Ships and any leisure an...

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