Search found 253 matches

by VictorKilo
Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: UA plans EWR-JNB/OGG, IAD-ACC/LOS, ORD-DEL/KOA, SFO-BLR
Replies: 453
Views: 50691

Re: United New Route Announcement 9/9/2020

What if the MNL route is HNL-MNL? Strong local demand from HNL plus connections from SFO and LAX? Shorter too (5302 vs 6987 from SFO per Great Circle Mapper).

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UPDATE: AA Goes Forward with Suspending Service to 15 Small Airports in October
Replies: 315
Views: 48470

Re: REPORT: American to drop routes to "two dozen" small/medium sized cities with no new aid

Many east of the Mississippi, yes. West of the Mississippi, the non-seasonal markets are not at unsustainable low levels other than a few markets in the northern plains. But for AA, I think places west of the Mississippi only connected to ORD are at risk, especially when competing against UA to ORD...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates Network & Fleet discussion 2020
Replies: 1459
Views: 2944

Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

Will Boeing let EK convert additional B779s to B789s? Absolutely. Cash rules everything around me. If Boeing can get cash in 2020 or 2021 for 789 for EK at the expense of potential profitable 779 sales in 2024, that's what they do. It means they have incrementally less to borrow in 2020 and 2021 to...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:07 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 2164
Views: 380848

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

I'm saying that it's silly to claim that ongoing optimization of routes between carriers is proof of a failed JV. Not sure you understand "optimization" very well. It's not a buzzword or a cool PowerPoint word. It's a formal university science. By its very definition, "ongoing optimi...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: LH to restructucture SN
Replies: 156
Views: 32322

Re: Reports: LH might let SN file for bankruptcy

Are the traffic rights from BRU to West Africa specific to a Belgian airline or good for the whole EU? Could someone like Norwegian set up shop and start flying BRU-FIH tomorrow? Ah, after pages of "experts suggestions" to relocate their network, somebody finally pops the question. All th...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: LH to restructucture SN
Replies: 156
Views: 32322

Re: Reports: LH might let SN file for bankruptcy

Are the traffic rights from BRU to West Africa specific to a Belgian airline or good for the whole EU? Could someone like Norwegian set up shop and start flying BRU-FIH tomorrow?

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Narrow Body Thread - 2020
Replies: 430
Views: 40200

Re: Why have DL's A320-200s not been retired?

Ed doesn't seem to like used like Richard did. But then again, up until Covid-19, Ed had a lot of resources (money) that Richard didn't have. Richard also didn’t have the opportunity to buy what currently stands at a combined 230 brand new, end of production, largest variant versions of the 737NG a...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Mon May 18, 2020 8:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: American Airlines Business & Finance Discussion
Replies: 355
Views: 66683

Re: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK

(1) If AA files for Chapter 11, and re-emerges, what incentive is there for DL and UA not do the same thing? (Without bringing politics into this argument, is this what is meant by corporations abusing bankruptcy?) Would AA have a 'damaged credit rating' that would prevent them from being able to s...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DY Financial Discussion - 2020
Replies: 603
Views: 149724

Re: DY about to go bust?

DY shares plummet another 7% right away after the opening of the Oslo Stock Exchange today. There are talks now about DY violating minimum share capital requirements of their bond loan agreements, putting them into default. That would mean that DY soon will be flying at the creditors' mercy. So the...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Sat Feb 22, 2020 3:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?
Replies: 161
Views: 18332

Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

And Hillary Clinton has a better chance at winning the presidency this year than DL placing an order for the 788. DL decided several times that the aircraft was a poor fit for its network and cancelled the order, and there's absolutely nothing that's happened since to second guess that decision. At...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?
Replies: 161
Views: 18332

Re: What types will Delta order/option for delivery in 2023/2024?

The issue is that Boeing won't offer the right price. Why? Because they don't have any delivery slots to sell. They're already going to be 2 years behind on the backlog, so even if a few airlines cancel, they are still just catching up on their existing commits. And airlines won't cancel, because t...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: KLM buys a used 777-300 ER and 2 AMS slots for $23M
Replies: 104
Views: 29002

Re: KLM buys a used 777-300 ER and 2 AMS slots for $23M

Are all of the maintenance records required to put the plane into regular service physically contained within the plane at AM, or were they located at 9W at the time of seizure? Without those records the value of this plane is just the scrap value and the value of the parts that can be re-certified ...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?
Replies: 211
Views: 28877

Re: Can Boeing make a great come back in 2020?

Boeing will have a successful 2020 if they reject the idea that a short term “comeback” is the barometer of success. Success, rather, is in recognizing that there are systemic issues within the company that have led the company to where it is today, and that Boeing must recognize and address those i...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Investor Day Presentation 12/12/2019
Replies: 109
Views: 17953

Re: Delta Investor Day Presentation 12/12/2019

A couple of implications of the fleet rationalization idea: First, DL can now say that they’re not ordering the MAX to keep their fleet simple, not because of any of the issues related to the MAX. Second, DL has no interest in acquiring a new fleet type to allow it to fly >5000mi routes with planes ...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Wed Dec 11, 2019 11:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air France orders additional A350s
Replies: 73
Views: 16174

Re: Air France orders additional A350s

The AF 789s are the lever that keeps Boeing and Airbus in check on price. If Airbus jacks up 350 pricing, AF can take more 789, and if Boeing jacks up 789 pricing, KL takes the 789 and AF gets more 350s. Having that leverage is worth the cost of keeping them in the AF fleet.

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Thu Nov 28, 2019 3:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Ed Bastion: DL considering buying the 737MAX
Replies: 62
Views: 9800

Re: Ed Bastion: DL considering buying the 737MAX

Even if DL doesn’t fly the Max, they own 49% of AM, an airline who does fly the Max and has literally never owned an Airbus product. So DL does have a vested interest in the Max due to its stake in AM and I would expect them to not trash it openly even if it never flies in DL colors.

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:02 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: KLM to retire A330's by 2025, to become all Boeing airline
Replies: 118
Views: 26536

Re: KLM to retire A330's by 2025, to become all Boeing airline

Are the 5 A333, which are 2012-2014 builds with GE engines, the HGW variant like the DL 333 with GE engines? DL may make sense as a second home for these birds.

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Adding 2 More A330-900 NEOS
Replies: 125
Views: 28937

Re: Delta Adding 2 More A330-900 NEOS

This deal could also drive domestic growth instead of international growth - or these birds could free up 763 to fly in the LATAM JV.

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Sat Oct 12, 2019 5:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta buying 20% of LATAM
Replies: 867
Views: 126459

Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

The DL A220 could be a great tool for the JV to use - on flights to MIA ATL and maybe even MCO - for this long routes to Colombia Peru Ecuador and Northern Brazil. Also, I could see AM adjusting the timing of its NRT and or Brazilian flights to leverage the LATAM FF base on Brazil-Japan, which would...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Mon Sep 30, 2019 12:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Miami gate-space for future DELTA-LATAM expansion (?)
Replies: 102
Views: 13670

Re: Miami gate-space for future DELTA-LATAM expansion (?)

What some are missing is that there are many Skyteam FF members who now have a much greater number of South American flights available and will travel to Miami to board them. Well, LATAM out of MIA adds Recife, Fortaleza, Salvador, and Manaus vs. what DL offers from ATL. There are some problems, ho...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Fri Sep 27, 2019 3:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta buying 20% of LATAM
Replies: 867
Views: 126459

Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

So it appears that four Latam Brazil 359’s were leased to Qatar in the Spring of 2017 - two returned to Latam in the fall of 17 and two are still with Qatar. Perhaps those are the four planes going to Delta??

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta buying 20% of LATAM
Replies: 867
Views: 126459

Re: Delta buying 20% of LATAM

questions wrote:
What does LATAM get from DL that AA was unable to provide? (other than $1.9B)


A JV that can get approved.

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Detroit Metro Airport ranks #1 in the nation for customer satisfaction
Replies: 55
Views: 9409

Re: Detroit Metro Airport ranks #1 in the nation.

The dots also can help birds realize that it’s not something they can fly through.

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Norwegian offers bondholders security (LGW slots) in exchange for amended bond maturities
Replies: 138
Views: 8302

Re: Norwegian Air Fights for Survival

Another large part of the problem is that Norwegian has to pay debt on a large new fleet all year round - high fixed costs - when they only profit from it during high season. Perhaps, in order to make the TATL ULCC model work, you need to have Better places to deploy the capacity profitably during l...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: American Airlines Increases International Presence, Makes First Entrance Into Africa
Replies: 509
Views: 111925

Re: Rumor: American to make huge announcement

A flight to CMN (or CPT or JNB) would put AA in the Six Continent club. Changes to European seasonal flying, the move to HND, and adjustments with the QF JV check the boxes for four other continents. An adjustment to South American flying would make this announcement cover "every corner" -...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta announces MD-90 retirement deadline - end 2022
Replies: 111
Views: 17759

Re: Delta announces MD-90 retirement deadline - end 2022

I don't see the small size of the fleet being an issue with Delta - an airline that currently operates a fleet of 10 73W, a fleet of 16 753, and operated a handful of non-ER 763's after retiring the majority of them.

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:53 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta transitions BOS to Hub status, names SJC, BNA, and AUS as new focus cities
Replies: 304
Views: 45290

Re: Delta transitions BOS to Hub status, names SJC, BNA, and AUS as new focus cities

If there is a flight from SJC to Asia my guess is that it will be a flight to ICN, either on KE or perhaps a DL A339. And perhaps some SJC flights from LGB will be forthcoming, along with some nerd bird flying. The economics of thin Europe to BOS or DTW are probably based on 321XLR or 797 models and...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Fri May 24, 2019 2:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters : Airbus to counter the "NMA"by the existing 330neo and the A21N
Replies: 131
Views: 21455

Re: Reuters : Airbus to counter the "NMA"by the existing 330neo and the A21N

The market isn’t just new vs new. If current generation WB are more efficient than new generation at sub two hour flights, and there are a bunch of them in the market since they aren’t as competitive at long flights, putting older WB on shorter flights with less capital cost may be the best way to f...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Thu May 23, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?
Replies: 76
Views: 11411

Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

In my mind the odds that DL will prematurely retire the 757-300 is smaller than the odds that DL will pick up the 16 Condor 757-300 on the cheap if/when Condor is sold, even with the engines not being common with their existing 757-300 fleet.

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Sat May 18, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat
Replies: 390
Views: 72639

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

If AC takes over TS and then get their total pax, this will be huge. Imagine the amount of pax that AC would handle per year along with extra pax connecting to the United States thanks to the huge increase in european seats. AC will shut down any overlap, second there is next to no traffic between ...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Sat May 18, 2019 2:01 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 821
Views: 153802

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

I wouldn't rule out a return of DTW-NGO-MNL. The demand from NGO is stronger in premium classes, while the demand from MNL is stronger in economy class. These two complementary markets were served by a 744 in the past, and could be served by a 339 in the future.

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Wed May 15, 2019 5:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019
Replies: 1159
Views: 250241

Re: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019

I do wonder if some of the 332 routes in excess of the available number of frames are placeholders for future A339 flying. Has any of that been loaded yet?

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Tue May 07, 2019 2:37 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: How many more years of A380 service do we expect to see?
Replies: 32
Views: 5046

Re: How many more years of A380 service do we expect to see?

I would also imagine that over time, as the worldwide fleet of operating A380's shrinks with a sub-300 total production run and no aircraft in its family to share common components, the A380 will see the same sort of squeeze on service part availability and engine overall economics that Delta's MD90...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Wed Apr 17, 2019 6:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL S19 Departures By Hub And Aircraft Type
Replies: 143
Views: 22106

Re: DL S19 Departures By Hub And Aircraft Type

There is an increased amount of regional flying at ATL, but it's all CR7 and CR9 flying (plus 4 E70 flights). The number of CR2 flights is up by a single flight over last year.

The remaining M90's, like the M88's and 73G's, are now consolidated at ATL - which doesn't see any 221 flights.

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta looking into accelerating MD-90 retirement
Replies: 203
Views: 31229

Re: Delta looking into accelerating MD-90 retirement

Another way that DL could speed the replacement of the MD90's would be to take some used MAX frames. The WFU/NTU examples from Jet Airways could be the seed, supplemented by additional orders.

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta looking into accelerating MD-90 retirement
Replies: 203
Views: 31229

Re: Delta looking into accelerating MD-90 retirement

So DL will negotiate. Perhaps buy used aircraft. Once the MAXs are flying again (they will soon as in within 6 months, probably earlier), the value of used NGs and CEOs will reset down. So DL can pick their strategy, influenced by aircraft pricing. While DL may announce their draw down strategy for...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Jet Airways Updated: Operations suspended
Replies: 3319
Views: 400399

Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

...But Jet has shed what should be lucrative routes. Survival mode only works so long. Jet is spending its time answering this question: "How do we operate as much of the airline as we can so we can fly again tomorrow?" Jet is failing to answer the question: "What structure should Je...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU
Replies: 84
Views: 12797

Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

It would not surprise me if the DTW-GRU move is a seasonal suspension for Nov/Dec or a transition to seasonal service. Even many of the DTW-Asia flights historically have not operated around the holiday periods, so it would not surprise me for DL just to decide to suspend the flight during this peri...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: WOW Air Ongoing Developments Discussion Thread
Replies: 1113
Views: 184751

Re: WOW Financial Discussion Thread

Outside firm wants to invest cash into struggling airline but the founder of the airline is unwilling to accept a deal that dilutes his stake/power.

WOW is the new Jet Airways.

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible
Replies: 879
Views: 142787

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Incidentally, this all comes around the timing of the first few 380s being scrapped. I wonder if EK is feeling pressure from the lessors/financers regarding future deliveries of the aircraft. I'd imagine that the lessors have significantly more power to demand more favourable terms in today's marke...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:55 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta MD-88/90 B-717 Fleet
Replies: 21
Views: 5014

Re: Delta MD-88/90 B-717 Fleet

If the economy stays strong, they will likely compliment those deliveries by overhauling some V2500s and returning some MD90s to the skies. Remember that the only place left that will overhaul an engine for a MD90 is in New Zealand. Only one. Given their limited lifespan we may see some engine swap...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: BE being bought for £2.2m by a consortium including VS, Stobart Group and Cyrus Capital
Replies: 449
Views: 80425

Re: Updated: VS To Be Largest Shareholder In New Airline Group Comprising BE And RE

I don't expect there to be an issue with VS being the largest shareholder but not a majority owner of a regional flying under the Virgin and Aer Lingus brands. YX, after its bankruptcy, is partially owned by all 3 of the majors and does regional flying for all three. Also, with VS having a Delta and...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Jet Airways Updated: Operations suspended
Replies: 3319
Views: 400399

Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

For a company that’s not current on wages and just defaulted on its loans, there doesn’t seem to be the same sense of urgency that WOW Air has shown in terms of taking drastic actions to address its financial situation (and there is no evidence that WOW defaulted on wages). Even Norwegian has seemed...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA announces SFO-DEL/MEL/YYZ; Expands AKL/AMS/PPT/ICN.
Replies: 507
Views: 74371

Re: United Airlines CEO to Make Historic Route Announcement Tomorrow (12/12)

The combination of Historic and Package of Routes makes me think that it could be something like “Most destinations in (the world, Asia, Europe) ever served nonstop from the mainland US by a single airline.”

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Thu Nov 01, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta A330-900 routes
Replies: 80
Views: 14066

Re: Delta A330-900 routes

I had not considered that the A339 would be a good choice for DTW-NGO - which is a sui generis route for Delta - driven by the front of the cabin instead of the back of the cabin, and at 6522 miles long, the longest route flown by the A332 today. But the way Delta has chosen to configure them per Wi...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta and Haneda
Replies: 97
Views: 15777

Re: Delta and Haneda

If DL only gets two slots my guess is that SEA and PDX will remain at NRT, mostly because both are within the range of the smaller 763. DL can them concentrate the 359 at HND with flights to ATL MSP DTW and LAX while NRT gets the 763 to SEA PDX and HNL, with SIN and MNL traffic flowing through the K...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg
Replies: 171
Views: 29851

Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

The 779 & remaining 359 orders roughly equal the combined 346 and 744 fleets. That still leaves 22 343 (15 at LH, 5 at LX, 2 at SN/EW) to be replaced - and my guess is that this is what the order is targeted towards - and I could see the 789 slotting in to the 343 role. Another factor at play is...

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Jet Airways Updated: Operations suspended
Replies: 3319
Views: 400399

Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

So if 9W is running out of cash, what’s the incentive for Tata to buy a stake now? Why not wait until bankruptcy and just pick up the parts they want and not the leases they don’t (plus whatever parts a partner investor airline would want them to operate)?

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Korean Air mulling widebody order
Replies: 68
Views: 15459

Re: Korean Air mulling widebody order

I could also see them get 10 787-8 for long and thin routes to places like PDX and SLC that make more sense now that the DL JV is in place.

Jump to post
by VictorKilo
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A few Delta fleet questions.
Replies: 135
Views: 13992

Re: A few Delta fleet questions.

My guess is that DL will eventually order the 787, specifically the -8, in the future, probably when they place their 797 order. I expect that the 797 will have sufficient range to fly the majority of 763 flying, but there are still routes longer than the max range of the 797 where an aircraft with ...

Jump to post