Search found 229 matches

by VictorKilo
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: American Airlines Increases International Presence, Makes First Entrance Into Africa
Replies: 508
Views: 94665

Re: Rumor: American to make huge announcement

A flight to CMN (or CPT or JNB) would put AA in the Six Continent club. Changes to European seasonal flying, the move to HND, and adjustments with the QF JV check the boxes for four other continents. An adjustment to South American flying would make this announcement cover "every corner" -...

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by VictorKilo
Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta announces MD-90 retirement deadline - end 2022
Replies: 102
Views: 13303

Re: Delta announces MD-90 retirement deadline - end 2022

I don't see the small size of the fleet being an issue with Delta - an airline that currently operates a fleet of 10 73W, a fleet of 16 753, and operated a handful of non-ER 763's after retiring the majority of them.

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by VictorKilo
Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:53 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta transitions BOS to Hub status, names SJC, BNA, and AUS as new focus cities
Replies: 304
Views: 41455

Re: Delta transitions BOS to Hub status, names SJC, BNA, and AUS as new focus cities

If there is a flight from SJC to Asia my guess is that it will be a flight to ICN, either on KE or perhaps a DL A339. And perhaps some SJC flights from LGB will be forthcoming, along with some nerd bird flying. The economics of thin Europe to BOS or DTW are probably based on 321XLR or 797 models and...

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by VictorKilo
Fri May 24, 2019 2:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters : Airbus to counter the "NMA"by the existing 330neo and the A21N
Replies: 131
Views: 20206

Re: Reuters : Airbus to counter the "NMA"by the existing 330neo and the A21N

The market isn’t just new vs new. If current generation WB are more efficient than new generation at sub two hour flights, and there are a bunch of them in the market since they aren’t as competitive at long flights, putting older WB on shorter flights with less capital cost may be the best way to f...

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by VictorKilo
Thu May 23, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?
Replies: 76
Views: 10597

Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

In my mind the odds that DL will prematurely retire the 757-300 is smaller than the odds that DL will pick up the 16 Condor 757-300 on the cheap if/when Condor is sold, even with the engines not being common with their existing 757-300 fleet.

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by VictorKilo
Sat May 18, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat
Replies: 320
Views: 55530

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

If AC takes over TS and then get their total pax, this will be huge. Imagine the amount of pax that AC would handle per year along with extra pax connecting to the United States thanks to the huge increase in european seats. AC will shut down any overlap, second there is next to no traffic between ...

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by VictorKilo
Sat May 18, 2019 2:01 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 786
Views: 137874

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

I wouldn't rule out a return of DTW-NGO-MNL. The demand from NGO is stronger in premium classes, while the demand from MNL is stronger in economy class. These two complementary markets were served by a 744 in the past, and could be served by a 339 in the future.

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by VictorKilo
Wed May 15, 2019 5:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019
Replies: 835
Views: 162052

Re: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019

I do wonder if some of the 332 routes in excess of the available number of frames are placeholders for future A339 flying. Has any of that been loaded yet?

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by VictorKilo
Tue May 07, 2019 2:37 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: How many more years of A380 service do we expect to see?
Replies: 32
Views: 4694

Re: How many more years of A380 service do we expect to see?

I would also imagine that over time, as the worldwide fleet of operating A380's shrinks with a sub-300 total production run and no aircraft in its family to share common components, the A380 will see the same sort of squeeze on service part availability and engine overall economics that Delta's MD90...

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by VictorKilo
Wed Apr 17, 2019 6:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL S19 Departures By Hub And Aircraft Type
Replies: 143
Views: 19465

Re: DL S19 Departures By Hub And Aircraft Type

There is an increased amount of regional flying at ATL, but it's all CR7 and CR9 flying (plus 4 E70 flights). The number of CR2 flights is up by a single flight over last year.

The remaining M90's, like the M88's and 73G's, are now consolidated at ATL - which doesn't see any 221 flights.

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by VictorKilo
Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta looking into accelerating MD-90 retirement
Replies: 203
Views: 29722

Re: Delta looking into accelerating MD-90 retirement

Another way that DL could speed the replacement of the MD90's would be to take some used MAX frames. The WFU/NTU examples from Jet Airways could be the seed, supplemented by additional orders.

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by VictorKilo
Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta looking into accelerating MD-90 retirement
Replies: 203
Views: 29722

Re: Delta looking into accelerating MD-90 retirement

So DL will negotiate. Perhaps buy used aircraft. Once the MAXs are flying again (they will soon as in within 6 months, probably earlier), the value of used NGs and CEOs will reset down. So DL can pick their strategy, influenced by aircraft pricing. While DL may announce their draw down strategy for...

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by VictorKilo
Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Jet Airways Updated: Operations suspended
Replies: 3319
Views: 386968

Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

...But Jet has shed what should be lucrative routes. Survival mode only works so long. Jet is spending its time answering this question: "How do we operate as much of the airline as we can so we can fly again tomorrow?" Jet is failing to answer the question: "What structure should Je...

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by VictorKilo
Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU
Replies: 83
Views: 12089

Re: OAG Changes 3/10/2019:Y4 New Routes;WN HNL-KOA/OGG;VC Trims;ET Adds ABJ-IAD;DL Ends DTW-GRU

It would not surprise me if the DTW-GRU move is a seasonal suspension for Nov/Dec or a transition to seasonal service. Even many of the DTW-Asia flights historically have not operated around the holiday periods, so it would not surprise me for DL just to decide to suspend the flight during this peri...

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by VictorKilo
Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: WOW Ceases Operations
Replies: 975
Views: 158388

Re: WOW Financial Discussion Thread

Outside firm wants to invest cash into struggling airline but the founder of the airline is unwilling to accept a deal that dilutes his stake/power.

WOW is the new Jet Airways.

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by VictorKilo
Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible
Replies: 880
Views: 138833

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Incidentally, this all comes around the timing of the first few 380s being scrapped. I wonder if EK is feeling pressure from the lessors/financers regarding future deliveries of the aircraft. I'd imagine that the lessors have significantly more power to demand more favourable terms in today's marke...

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by VictorKilo
Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:55 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta MD-88/90 B-717 Fleet
Replies: 21
Views: 4705

Re: Delta MD-88/90 B-717 Fleet

If the economy stays strong, they will likely compliment those deliveries by overhauling some V2500s and returning some MD90s to the skies. Remember that the only place left that will overhaul an engine for a MD90 is in New Zealand. Only one. Given their limited lifespan we may see some engine swap...

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by VictorKilo
Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: BE being bought for £2.2m by a consortium including VS, Stobart Group and Cyrus Capital
Replies: 447
Views: 77784

Re: Updated: VS To Be Largest Shareholder In New Airline Group Comprising BE And RE

I don't expect there to be an issue with VS being the largest shareholder but not a majority owner of a regional flying under the Virgin and Aer Lingus brands. YX, after its bankruptcy, is partially owned by all 3 of the majors and does regional flying for all three. Also, with VS having a Delta and...

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by VictorKilo
Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Jet Airways Updated: Operations suspended
Replies: 3319
Views: 386968

Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

For a company that’s not current on wages and just defaulted on its loans, there doesn’t seem to be the same sense of urgency that WOW Air has shown in terms of taking drastic actions to address its financial situation (and there is no evidence that WOW defaulted on wages). Even Norwegian has seemed...

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by VictorKilo
Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA announces SFO-DEL/MEL/YYZ; Expands AKL/AMS/PPT/ICN.
Replies: 507
Views: 71377

Re: United Airlines CEO to Make Historic Route Announcement Tomorrow (12/12)

The combination of Historic and Package of Routes makes me think that it could be something like “Most destinations in (the world, Asia, Europe) ever served nonstop from the mainland US by a single airline.”

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by VictorKilo
Thu Nov 01, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta A330-900 routes
Replies: 80
Views: 13651

Re: Delta A330-900 routes

I had not considered that the A339 would be a good choice for DTW-NGO - which is a sui generis route for Delta - driven by the front of the cabin instead of the back of the cabin, and at 6522 miles long, the longest route flown by the A332 today. But the way Delta has chosen to configure them per Wi...

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by VictorKilo
Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta and Haneda
Replies: 97
Views: 15453

Re: Delta and Haneda

If DL only gets two slots my guess is that SEA and PDX will remain at NRT, mostly because both are within the range of the smaller 763. DL can them concentrate the 359 at HND with flights to ATL MSP DTW and LAX while NRT gets the 763 to SEA PDX and HNL, with SIN and MNL traffic flowing through the K...

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by VictorKilo
Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg
Replies: 171
Views: 29243

Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

The 779 & remaining 359 orders roughly equal the combined 346 and 744 fleets. That still leaves 22 343 (15 at LH, 5 at LX, 2 at SN/EW) to be replaced - and my guess is that this is what the order is targeted towards - and I could see the 789 slotting in to the 343 role. Another factor at play is...

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by VictorKilo
Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Jet Airways Updated: Operations suspended
Replies: 3319
Views: 386968

Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

So if 9W is running out of cash, what’s the incentive for Tata to buy a stake now? Why not wait until bankruptcy and just pick up the parts they want and not the leases they don’t (plus whatever parts a partner investor airline would want them to operate)?

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by VictorKilo
Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Korean Air mulling widebody order
Replies: 68
Views: 15114

Re: Korean Air mulling widebody order

I could also see them get 10 787-8 for long and thin routes to places like PDX and SLC that make more sense now that the DL JV is in place.

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by VictorKilo
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A few Delta fleet questions.
Replies: 135
Views: 13319

Re: A few Delta fleet questions.

My guess is that DL will eventually order the 787, specifically the -8, in the future, probably when they place their 797 order. I expect that the 797 will have sufficient range to fly the majority of 763 flying, but there are still routes longer than the max range of the 797 where an aircraft with ...

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by VictorKilo
Sat Oct 06, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Jet Airways Updated: Operations suspended
Replies: 3319
Views: 386968

Re: Jet Airways: reports cash running out

Does India have any form of bankruptcy reorganization, where Jet can reduce debt and restructure their business (eliminate the 77Ws, the scissor hub in AMS, reject unprofitable leases, increase the amount of economy seats on each plane), or is liquidation the likely result of bankruptcy?

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by VictorKilo
Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will point-to-point hurt or help hubs with large O&D traffic?
Replies: 25
Views: 2808

Re: Will point-to-point hurt or help hubs with large O&D traffic?

The 787 and 350 (like the 777 before it) increase the number of spokes to each hub, and by doing so, decrease the amount of traffic that needs to double connect to reach a destination. The only way a hub can get hurt is if it requires double connecting traffic to function. And the only hub that oper...

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by VictorKilo
Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Comparison of AA/DL/UA routes between the USA's Largest CSA markets
Replies: 31
Views: 4873

Re: Comparison of AA/DL/UA routes between the USA's Largest CSA markets

DL and AA both fly: JFK-PHL-JFK I didn’t include that because DL is ending the service Sept 30, leaving AA the only one of the three still flying NYC-PHL after that date. Even though I understand why, I still found NYC-PHL interesting. UA obviously made the least sense of the three, given the EWR h...

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by VictorKilo
Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans
Replies: 146
Views: 31141

Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

It will be interesting to see how they choose to restructure their wide body fleet. 73 789, 332, 333, 77W, and 380 - plus 139 A350, B77X, and B787 variants on order. Mass cancellations would be expected - the 60 350 orders to start, and probably the 77Xs too. I don’t think they could find someone to...

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by VictorKilo
Mon Mar 26, 2018 2:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta 787 in the future?
Replies: 47
Views: 8703

Re: Delta 787 in the future?

DL is a very enthusiastic user of the A330 and I don't see the basis on which you claim the 789 is better particularly for DL. Seems like someone with a very large A330 fleet interested in a TATL aircraft available soon with low capital costs is prime A330neo customer. But a small fleet of used 787...

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by VictorKilo
Sun Mar 25, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta 787 in the future?
Replies: 47
Views: 8703

Re: Delta 787 in the future?

I think it’s more likely that Delta will acquire the 787 from a defunct airline than Delta will order the 787 from Boeing.

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by VictorKilo
Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Hypothetical: United builds a hub at BNA
Replies: 65
Views: 7866

Re: Hypothetical: United builds a hub at BNA

Another factor that would make such a prospect very difficult is that UA has been historically a minor player in BNA and has basically zero local ff base. Just a few years ago BNA was all express, and down the road CHA had no service at all. Delta and Southwest have loyal frequent flier bases in th...

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by VictorKilo
Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Etihad to retire the 77L
Replies: 143
Views: 42306

Re: Etihad to retire the 77L

I seem to remember discussion back when AI were trying to place these aircraft the first time that there may have been some maintenance paperwork issues with these aircraft. Were those issues resolved when they were placed in service with EY? Are there remaining paperwork issues with these aircraft ...

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by VictorKilo
Wed Nov 01, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Doug Parker on United's Lack of a Southeast Hub
Replies: 196
Views: 22146

Re: Doug Parker on United's Lack of a Southeast Hub

It seems as United faces a structural issue in its network operating major hubs out of the most expensive in the country while not reaping the benefits of a "cheap" hub. That's the wrong conclusion to take from the data, because it neglects to include revenue per enplaned passenger. Just ...

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by VictorKilo
Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Air Berlin to cease operations
Replies: 971
Views: 167429

Re: Updated: Air Berlin to cease operations

Wrong link to the Reuters article. Here's the right one: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-air-berlin-lufthansa/lufthansa-poised-to-buy-parts-of-air-berlin-source-idUSKBN1CG1UR Article mentions Niki + LGW + Additional aircraft (probably the EuroWings wet lease operation) as the parts of Air Berlin ...

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by VictorKilo
Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Air Berlin to cease operations
Replies: 971
Views: 167429

Re: Air Berlin has filed for insolvency

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-22/lufthansa-easyjet-get-inside-track-on-buying-air-berlin-assets Lufthansa wants for Eurowings the jets wet-leased from AirBerlin for Eurowings, and also wants Niki. (Possibly with the TUIFly leases included???) Seems so, but i don't think they want ...

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by VictorKilo
Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Air Berlin to cease operations
Replies: 971
Views: 167429

Re: Air Berlin has filed for insolvency

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-22/lufthansa-easyjet-get-inside-track-on-buying-air-berlin-assets Lufthansa wants for Eurowings the jets wet-leased from AirBerlin for Eurowings, and also wants Niki. (Possibly with the TUIFly leases included???) EasyJet wants other parts of AirBerlin'...

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by VictorKilo
Sat Sep 16, 2017 3:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta to axe NRT-GUM
Replies: 86
Views: 15075

Re: Delta to axe NRT-GUM

DL had been using the 5 ex-Shanghai 752s, which are ETOPS, on NRT-Micronesia routes. Going forward it would make sense that these 752s would go to the mainland and DL would use 763s on NRT-SPN/ROR like they do for NRT-SIN/MNL

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by VictorKilo
Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL Future Expansion
Replies: 516
Views: 60006

Re: DL Future Expansion

I would expect the next announced route will be LAS-AMS on an A332. LAS already has service to all the hubs and SNA, SAN, and SJC. With the new JV it can leverage the KE flight to ICN. LAS-Europe is around 5400 miles, which may be pushing the range of the 763 in LAS's heat. DL already routes multipl...

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by VictorKilo
Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why Lufthansa says it's temporarily dropping its Frankfurt-San Jose flight
Replies: 55
Views: 14642

Re: Why Lufthansa says it's temporarily dropping its Frankfurt-San Jose flight

Perhaps LH could fly an ex-Air Berlin 332 on the route after LH acquires those frames and crews?

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by VictorKilo
Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Air Berlin to cease operations
Replies: 971
Views: 167429

Re: Air Berlin has filed for insolvency

This is going to end in court. And hopefully bad for LH, 90%+ market share cant (and wont) be tolerated by EU legislation. But it won't be 90%+ market share. AirBerlin's business breaks down accordingly: 20 Q400 operated by LGW for AirBerlin 11 A319 operated by AirBerlin for Lufthansa Group 24 A320...

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by VictorKilo
Wed Aug 30, 2017 3:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Air Berlin to cease operations
Replies: 971
Views: 167429

Re: Air Berlin has filed for insolvency

Reuters is reporting that Ryanair will not bid on AirBerlin assets. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-air-berlin-lufthansa-ryanair-hldgs-idUSKCN1BA1S1?il=0 “If there was a fair and open process we would get involved but we are not getting involved in this process because it’s a stitch-up,” [O'Leary]...

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by VictorKilo
Sat Aug 26, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Widebody Thread
Replies: 517
Views: 82890

Re: Delta Widebody Thread

With ATL-LOS going to the 332, is SEA-PVG the only 763 flight requiring crew rest? Could we see that route go to the 332 and the High-J fleet commonized with no crew rest?

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by VictorKilo
Mon Aug 07, 2017 3:01 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL
Replies: 58
Views: 11464

Re: OAG Changes 8/6/2017: UA Brings Back ORD-PNS; AA Exits MSP-LAX, Expands SLC-PHL

DL starting MCO-AMS doesn't warrant a star? Also, enilria, thanks so much for doing this. This is always my favorite thread of the week. Jeremy Agreed on both accounts. MCO-AMS is a 767-300 and appears to be a full time route or at least summer seasonal - not like the grouping of flights to AUS for...

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by VictorKilo
Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL plans to relaunch ATL-PVG in 2018
Replies: 62
Views: 9754

Re: DL plans to relaunch ATL-PVG in 2018

So in 2018 the 77L will be flying the following routes:

ATL-LAX-SYD
ATL-JNB
ATL-ICN
ATL-PVG
DTW-PVG

I suspect LAX-PVG will no longer be flown by the 77L. Perhaps the 77E will fly LAX-PEK - or maybe that route is getting the 350?

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by VictorKilo
Sat Jul 15, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How many A330NEO will DL convert to A359
Replies: 151
Views: 22028

Re: How many A330NEO will DL convert to A359

I disagree that Delta should acquire NEOs sooner and A350s later. The A350 has the ability to open up longer range flights. With the 747s leaving the fleet, Delta is very limited in the number of planes that it has that can fly over 6000 nautical miles. The A330-200 is close to the edge of its rang...

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by VictorKilo
Fri Apr 14, 2017 3:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL defers last 10 A350s by at least 2-3 years
Replies: 204
Views: 45167

Re: Delta Reviewing Airbus Widebody Purchase in blow to Airbus

That's a big uplift vs. the current 763ERs... More likely to be A339 routes than 77E. I can definitely see the first batch of A339s based out of SEA for Transpac routes. I see most of the A339's doing as DL said they would, replace the 763ER's. They'll probably go to MSP, JFK, DTW, and ATL, all to ...

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by VictorKilo
Thu Apr 13, 2017 7:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL defers last 10 A350s by at least 2-3 years
Replies: 204
Views: 45167

Re: Delta Reviewing Airbus Widebody Purchase in blow to Airbus

I can see the following networks for the 777's and a fleet of 16 350's, plus the 332's. 77L: LAX-SYD/BNE/ICN, ATL-ICN/JNB, plus maybe ATL-LAX or asparagus hauling on ATL-LIM if there is any utilization left over. 350: DTW-NRT/PVG/ICN, LAX-PVG/HND, ATL-NRT, JFK-ICN/TLV, plus maybe a few European flig...

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by VictorKilo
Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta and Korean sign JVA
Replies: 631
Views: 77490

Re: Delta and Korean sign JVA

I think MSP-HND is eventually replaced with ICN Possibly, although again, that raises the specter of what happens with the HND slot pair. I share the skepticism of many here about whether or not MSP really makes sense for a HND flight, but at this point if Delta tries to move that HND slot pair som...

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