Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

I'm amazed how easy it is to fix this whole mess. Are Boeing people not reading this forum? Easy is relative, a fuel burn penalty of 1-2% would seriously weaken the position compared to the NEO. It is just a fact that fixing the problem is not hugely difficult from an engineering perspective. It mi...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Boeing won't have to do anything at all. The pax aren't the ones buying their planes. Considering that the airlines basically have a choice between either a 737 or an A320 family, both with long lead times, then the orders will continue to flow in as a) in 3/4/5 years time (roughly the length of ti...

Re: Boeing Expects a $5.6 Billion Hit for 737 Max Disruptions

goosebayguy, you're lacking in long range vision, and business economics. the write-down is to cover expenditures while the 737max is stored and to keep the line running (as well as paying suppliers). once the fix is approved and implemented, there will over 200 737max to be delivered and final pay...

Re: Boeing Expects a $5.6 Billion Hit for 737 Max Disruptions

Boeing Commercial Airplanes Unit yearly earnings (profits) of (about $8 billion in an average year) exceeds the proposed charge for the 737 MAX disruptions, so in a big picture the charge is insignificant. Well, yes, thank you. But $5.6B gone is still a huge hit. I wouldn't characeize it as insigni...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Personally, I think the biggest future loss outside penalty payments to operators and victims, and lost profits from lower sales will be structurally lower ASP for the plane. Those orders that haven't been finalised will probably be renegotiated so I can see ASP going down by a million per plane at ...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

No you are wrong. I'm afraid you did not understand my message. Yes I did and like many others I'm trying to explain to you you cannot equal lost revenue from the production rate cut to lost profits that add to the figure Boeing mentioned and we discuss. I also explained why your refute was false. ...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Production is lower. But cost will also be lower'they don't have to buy engines, avionics, wings, bolts, nuts etc. for planes not being produced. Chances are that their labor force will also be somewhat lower. I guess what I'm trying to say is that lost production income does not equal losses. Cost...

Re: Boeing Expects a $5.6 Billion Hit for 737 Max Disruptions

This is very typical of Boeing over the past 25 years. Gotta cut costs to the bone up front. Then it costs 1000x more later - 787, KC-46, 737 Max. Never enough money to do it right, but always lots more money later to fix the mess. Unfortunately the 737 Max cost more than late deliveries. They neve...

Re: KLM calls for people to fly less

We do, in fact, have scientific evidence of what's necessary to avert catastrophe. For example, the IPCC's most recent report looked into what would be require to limit warming to 1.5 deg C; the report looked at several pathways to that goal. This is exactly what the alarmists fail to understand. W...

Re: KLM calls for people to fly less

We do, in fact, have scientific evidence of what's necessary to avert catastrophe. For example, the IPCC's most recent report looked into what would be require to limit warming to 1.5 deg C; the report looked at several pathways to that goal. This is exactly what the alarmists fail to understand. W...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

I'm not quite sure why some of the Boeing 'defenders' (whitewashing is a forbidden word so it seems) object to the notion of ill-intent. If this truely is a case of a complete failure of SE processes, gross incompetence in engineering and design and failure to verify and (in this case most important...

Re: Airbus product range 2028

I think a lot better path for Airbus would be to do a cleansheet Ovalish 7W fuselage to replace both A320 and A330 series with two different wings/wingboxes/gear/tails/engines (smaller less capable ones for A320 replacement around 3,000NM in range and bigger more capable ones for A330 replacement w...

Re: Airbus product range 2028

To the OP, I am with you regarding the specs for the 322 and 360, although the 360 fuselage might be slightly less wide, going towards 5m40. Interior cabin width will be around 5m10. I can see the Airbus roadmap go as follows: 2023 A321XLR 2027 A322 with new wings, new engine, new cockpit 2028 A350 ...

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

A lot of time goes by that does not mean that such carrier will change strategy. Except Emirates clearly is changing its strategy. :roll: Clearly? OK. Your sources? :roll: wow...you continue to ask people to provide sources, yet duck and hide when people ask you to provide the same for your bold cl...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

I think now would be the time for Airbus to open a design centre near Seattle. I wonder how many Boeing engineers would jump ship. Not sure Airbus would need the extra hands and brains but I'm sure there are some areas of expertise left where they could add value to the company. Airbus and Boeing b...

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

... until ME3 need ...? Oops yes indeed. E3 too but they are dwarfed in that department. But with the increase of P2P I can see their need for VLA's grow longer term. ME3 will need a lot of extra long thin routes to feed into an ever diminishing amount of fat ones. I also meant 500+ pax VLA's, not ...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

I think now would be the time for Airbus to open a design centre near Seattle. I wonder how many Boeing engineers would jump ship.

Not sure Airbus would need the extra hands and brains but I'm sure there are some areas of expertise left where they could add value to the company.

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

I am amazed that we are 11 pages of comments in without any new news on the 777 at EK. VLA's are the flagships of aviaton, add testosterone and stir. Besides, it's fun to speculate. I agree with Morrisond that it's a matter of time until E3 need 500+ VLAs to replace their 380s, and more p2p fat rou...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Relative to the back in service date, I believe Boeing indicated after they got dinged by the FAA, they said September would be the date for providing paperwork to the FAA, so in service would be 2-3 months after that if all went well. That may be, but that is not what the Bloomberg report says, wh...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

So EASA asking for a fix for a trim wheel function that is present on hundreds of NG's operating in Europe to allow the MAX back in the air while not grounding the NG passes the sniff test? If the exact issue is present on both the NG and the MAX unrelated to MCAS, based on the NG’s safety record I...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

So are you saying Bloomberg made that list up? Maybe the trim wheel is not seen as crucial to the safety of the NG and earlier versions, but I can see why they might think different on the MAX. There might be other reasons, and it might be that the MCAS v2 solution is enough. But yes, let's just ig...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

If that list doesn't concern you I doubt what list will. A lot of them are hardware issues. The heavy trim wheel, how to address that? Unreliable AoA sensors? I read that as 2 = not enough, not issues with the AoA sensor itself. And all these software and hardware issues will be addressed in two mo...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

What exactly would Boeing gain by not giving the airlines a realistic estimate? If they think it will be grounded until December but tell their customers September what would that do except cause logistical issues for their customers with no benefit to Boeing. And don't say stock price. The stock w...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

I'm just not so sure this particular fix will cut it for EASA. I think they have significant extra work ahead of them after the FCC fix. The MAX return to flight may be ultra long haul. The most interesting thing about the article being discussed is that EASA has provided a list of things Boeing ne...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Only a few months ago Boeing claimed may ungrounding and a quick fix. And now we should take their new estimate at face value when issues are even more severe? All I said was that it was interesting that Bloomberg was willing to report that Boeing was telling its customers that 737 would be back in...

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Except that T. CLARK preferred the specifications of the first iteration of the A350-1000 (before 2011) And a lot has changed for Emirates between then and now, so what he said six years ago is pretty much irrelevant now. :roll: A lot of time goes by that does not mean that such carrier will change...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

You present Boeing PR fluff as fact to dismiss statements by the EASA Revelation. That's pretty improper if you ask me. Actually it does not dismiss statements by the EASA, that's just the spin you are applying. It's quite possible Boeing fully understands what EASA is requesting and still feels it...

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

The number of orders the 777-9 has is surprisingly high at the moment, when you consider that the 744 replacement cycle is mostly done, while the replacement cycles for the 777W and the A380 have barely started. The plane will a huge success. In addition it is in the "why should I order now&qu...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

You keep bringing that statement up but a) "returned to service by September" does not equal worldwide ungrounding. It's pretty likely from multiple statements including that Bloomberg article Europe will likely follow later and China even later still. If there is a worldwide ungrounding,...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Boeing has been telling customers and others in the industry that it expects the plane will be returned to service by September . That timetable includes fixing the software implicated in the two crashes as well as the latest flaw identified with the microprocessor, said a person familiar with the ...

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

This is news to me that they are using CRFP in the frame. I have not read that anywhere and it would be a substantial change from a manufacturing and testing perspective. Yes it is. The 777-X is like a new aircraft :bigthumbsup: Do you have a source to quote on the change of material (from Al alloy...

Re: Middle East 3 Carriers are the Lifeline for 777-8/-9 Program

Your sources?? :roll: Yup better stay uninformed in your little bubble. More importantly, there should be a rolleyes quotum around here. For the second time, Your sources ?!... :roll: https://aviationanalyst.co.uk/2019/02/16/etihad-airways-cancel-multiple-a350-777x-jets/ Of course, since neither si...

Re: Middle East 3 Carriers are the Lifeline for 777-8/-9 Program

9Patch wrote:

Absynth wrote:

Checklist787 wrote:

Your sources??

Yup better stay uninformed in your little bubble. More importantly, there should be a rolleyes quotum around here.

I notice you didn't answer the question.

Re: Middle East 3 Carriers are the Lifeline for 777-8/-9 Program

The Etihad order is almost certainly reduced from 25 to 6. OTOH that A350 order by Emirates is firm even if it isnt 100% finalised. There might still be a A380 order in the books formally, but the order has been changed over. It will likely be finalised after they have a new deal in place with Boei...

Re: Middle East 3 Carriers are the Lifeline for 777-8/-9 Program

C'mon keesje - the Emirates A350 deal is not firm and in Airbus' backlog. Yet. Is there a Boeing or etubhad release noting the 777X reductions? I haven't found one despite searching. Wonder what gives?? The airline was quick to cancel 350, perhaps too quick....but I can't see some official statemen...

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

778 OEW estimation is around 167 t and A35k is around 150t! On a photo from CX A35k there is label with OEW 148 900kg on the pedestal. Cheers The 77W OEW is 167.8t. The 778 is 5m shorter than the 77W. At 2.3t/m, the 778 will be at least 11t less than the 77W before wings (going to composites should...

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

A 777X 85M based Twin with 360T MTOW would negate the need for a 11 or 12W clean sheet and the 777X would start to make a lot more sense to me. I always thought they were kind of crazy not to do an Ovalish Carbon 11W Barrel 777 replacement based on the 787 - however at 85M the 777x could be a very ...

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

I don't think there is enough market for a ground up 11 or 12 abreast plane.

Designing one in cooperation sounds like a recepy for miscommunication, errors and budget and planning overruns, so very unlikely.

I think a small stretch to 80m for the 777 is all that is feasible in our lifetime.

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

I'm sure Emirates would love a 777-10X as A380 replacement. The question is whether Boeing has any incentive to spend the money to develop it. As opposed to spending that money on a plane hardly anyone wants (Etihad is already out by all accounts) and for which Airbus has a leaner alternative they ...

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

People here are missing the forest for the trees. 1. The 380X got cancelled, the order changed to 30 A350's that will somehow have no effect on the 35 777-8 order, which is a plane with near identical specs to what has now been ordered from Airbus? 2. Emirates are changing strategies: expanding the ...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-28/boeing-s-737-max-software-outsourced-to-9-an-hour-engineers America’s favorite form of cost-cutting finally comes home to roost. Incredible. 737MAX, designed by third world engineers. The Cheapest. Clearly these people didn't wait to read where thi...

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

No, it doesn't make sense. Airlines doesn't need direct A380 replacement. They need to get rid of those excess capacity and replace it with smaller widebodies. I don't think it would provide any financial benefits for Boeing to build -10X. The -9X is the largest widebody aircraft out here. They hav...

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

I continue to believe that the 777x program is in trouble. Its too big and too heavy for most "real" airlines. Most of its orders are from ME3 and they're in trouble financially. What a tragedy Boeing did 777x and the 747-8 instead of MOM and a 737 replacement. Yes they got their priority...

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Haven't read all posts but here's my take on this news: the renegotiation seems likely to have been kicked off by the wish of Boeing to cancel the 777-8X. Boeing will need all their resources for the NMA/NSA. Emirates let the LOI expire as trading bargaining against a revised 777X order. I could see...

Re: LH will look at A321XLR, but it's no game-changer: CEO

The facts are that there is very little demand to/from secondary European cities relative to the big cities and MAN is no different. Uhm...which is exactly where the 321XLR comes into play? Those secondary cities can't fill a 787 or even a 330, but a 321 can open up a lot of new TATL lines that can...

Re: Boeing falsified records for a 787 sold to AC

With 160,000 employees there will always be bad actors. Unless directed by multiple layers of management it is impossible to say there’s a cultural problem. Yep. Like to know what company in the world with this many people does not have bad actors like this. My guess: zero. We've had these stories ...

Re: Boeing falsified records for a 787 sold to AC

The problem with firing the people is that Boeing created the culture to encourage their bad behavior in the first place. By firing them, Boeing dealt with the symptom, not the disease. They need leadership change and cultural change imho. Punitive action is not acceptable in a safety conscious bus...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Either way, the silver lining for Boeing will be they will be the first airplane manufacturer to break the 1000 deliveries a year milestone. I can see them deliver up to 1200 planes next year, a record Airbus probably wont be able to break for at least 10 years. That might not be happening... Consi...

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

It discusses a seemingly similar situation where a knowingly "broken processor" was used with no issues in Ariane 4, as the flight parameters would never reach the processor-software interaction limitations. The same set-up on Ariane 5 resulted in failure of first flight as flight paramet...

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

And you know this very well. The argument has been made over a hundred times by now, by dozens of people, if not more.

I'm a bit baffled by your bizarre response TBH.