Search found 195 matches

by JonesNL
Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest maybe considering an Airbus order
Replies: 290
Views: 48861

Re: Southwest maybe considering an Airbus order

Except airlines dint make decisions based comfort these days but more so on the acquisition cost, operating costs, and operational fit (what kind of flexibility will the aircraft offer the air carrier, is the aircraft capable to operate the missions we need it for.) So I suggest leaving getting off...

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by JonesNL
Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX
Replies: 425
Views: 42190

Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Delta needs to conserve $, no MAX for now unless Boeing gives them an excellent deal on price and financing. Delta doesn't need Boeing to finance these, unlike AAnother carrier. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/american-airlines-tells-boeing-no-financing-no-737-max-deliveries.html An easy $Billion o...

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by JonesNL
Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Unmanned fighter
Replies: 8
Views: 1044

Re: Unmanned fighter

Define “magnitude” higher than chess? I'm thinking exponential order. With chess, you have a limit number of moves, but the AI need to calculate umpteenth moves ahead. With a drone AI, there would be more possible moves, but the they do not have to look too far ahead and when you have a swarm you g...

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by JonesNL
Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 398
Views: 44220

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

https://leehamnews.com/2020/11/05/hotr- ... s-decline/
-->

Airbus is planning to increase the prod rate of the A350 average production volume of 3.5 APM in 2020, to 5 APM end of 2021 :spin:

What the hell are they smoking???

https://leehamnews.com/2020/11/05/hotr- ... s-decline/

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by JonesNL
Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:48 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest maybe considering an Airbus order
Replies: 290
Views: 48861

Re: Southwest maybe considering an Airbus order

I'm confused by the assertion that 20 year old 737-700s do not have much life in them. The 737 is certified for 110,000 Flight cycles +FC) and 125,000 flight hours (FH). If you hit either, the plane is done. Airlines have performed the bulkhead repair due by 85,000 FC. So it isn't as if 737s haven'...

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by JonesNL
Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing studied revamp of 737-10 prior to pandemic
Replies: 142
Views: 26940

Re: Boeing turning attention to 737-10

You make a decent point. The average flight for a 737 is just over 2 hours and 900-1000 miles. That market is 10,000+ airplanes. The market for transatlantic narrowbodies is only a few hundred. Having the most efficient and cheapest airplane covering 1-5 hour flights is what is going to matter most...

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by JonesNL
Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing studied revamp of 737-10 prior to pandemic
Replies: 142
Views: 26940

Re: Boeing turning attention to 737-10

What Boeing needs (other than the MAX being recertified) is for one of the MAX models MAX 8 or higher to have an LR version that has true transatlantic range. Right now an airline that wishes to have a transatlantic narrowbody has only one choice. Once they choose the only choice for that mission, ...

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by JonesNL
Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 398
Views: 44220

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

jeffrey0032j wrote:
Adding on, there is only so much airlines and lessors can take. Manufacturers, particularly A, have to realise the market realities.


I am on the same boat, just looking for answers for the baffling production/delivery rate and even crazier projection of 47/m...

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by JonesNL
Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 398
Views: 44220

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

This is propping up Airbus at the expense if airline cash. How much is it airline cash vs leasing company cash? leasing companies as a pure equity business are the group who chose to shoulder the risk, that is their entire business model, it's also good in government economic terms - protect the jo...

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by JonesNL
Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing studied revamp of 737-10 prior to pandemic
Replies: 142
Views: 26940

Re: Boeing turning attention to 737-10

The 737-10 doesn’t need to be compared to the A321LR/XLR. Only to the baseline A321NEO. In my company they need the additional lift over the MAX 8 for a range less that maximum 2500nm. Our most important markets are within 700-1000nm’s. So the current -10 is perfect. What’s up with this A.net myth ...

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by JonesNL
Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:37 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Production/Delivery Thread - 2020
Replies: 330
Views: 81775

Re: Airbus A220 Production/Delivery Thread - 2020

Probably the A321 Neo’s as well. Those are easier to sell to other parties than the A220, which has only an handful of operators.

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by JonesNL
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Production/Delivery Thread - 2020
Replies: 330
Views: 81775

Re: Airbus A220 Production/Delivery Thread - 2020

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElQfYu9W0AA ... name=large


And 2 on Friday! I thought they were parking a big portion of the A220's due to pilot furloughs.
-->

Delta350 wrote:
Delta is receiving an A220 every day this week.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElQfYu9W0AA ... name=large


And 2 on Friday! I thought they were parking a big portion of the A220's due to pilot furloughs.

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by JonesNL
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:47 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest maybe considering an Airbus order
Replies: 290
Views: 48861

Re: Southwest maybe considering an Airbus order

I am not sure the 15% figure holds any ground. Leeham did an extensive write up comparing the A223, A319neo and 737-7 MAX. A223 did ~8% better on trip cost and ~5% better on a cost per seat basis. It might have changed with time but I am guessing not by much. There were/are talks that with PIPs the...

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by JonesNL
Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest maybe considering an Airbus order
Replies: 290
Views: 48861

Re: Southwest maybe considering an Airbus order

What if the US build A223 has 15% lower operating costs, is quieter and no other airline in the world wants the 737-7? Southwest has 500 737-700s but pushed their small 737-7 order out, even before the MAX crashes. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/southwest-moves-up-40-max-737-8-o...

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by JonesNL
Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest maybe considering an Airbus order
Replies: 290
Views: 48861

Re: Southwest maybe considering an Airbus order

Revelation wrote:
...
It's not all profit, it comes with a lot of direct and indirect cost.
...


Won't the direct and indirect cost be easily compensated by the efficiencies at the scale that WN operates?
Seeing the latest bolded statements in FATFlyer comment WN is talking about half their fleet...

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by JonesNL
Mon Oct 26, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest maybe considering an Airbus order
Replies: 290
Views: 48861

Re: Southwest maybe considering an Airbus order

How small is the aircraft they want to have? The 737-7 has grown in size by about 12 seats compared to the 737-700. So it is not so small any more. The remaining options are A319neo PW, A319neo CFM, A220-300 and E195-E2. There are four aircraft evaluations to run. See transcript above from FATFlyer...

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by JonesNL
Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest maybe considering an Airbus order
Replies: 290
Views: 48861

Re: Southwest maybe considering an Airbus order

How small is the aircraft they want to have? The 737-7 has grown in size by about 12 seats compared to the 737-700. So it is not so small any more. The remaining options are A319neo PW, A319neo CFM, A220-300 and E195-E2. There are four aircraft evaluations to run. See transcript above from FATFlyer...

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by JonesNL
Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest maybe considering an Airbus order
Replies: 290
Views: 48861

Re: Southwest maybe considering an Airbus order

I would think the E195-E2 would be a better fit for LUV if they want to go smaller. Price and availability would be much better than the A-220 and LUV's route network doesn't need the extra range of the A-220. I think if management and pilots could have a come to Jesus meeting and work out a fair p...

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by JonesNL
Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1890
Views: 189189

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Below 200 seats will be a separate business. 200 to 250-300 will be the segment to cover. Not sure myself if six abreast would be the optimum diameter for those bigger narrow bodies. It's interesting to see Airbus range go down with size increases for mainline use but the tiny A220 has extreme rang...

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by JonesNL
Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1890
Views: 189189

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

One scenario that I find interesting is that Boeing does an all new kerosene based single aisle line up and Airbus bets on hydrogen. Who will get most orders in such a case? The assumption of Airbus and others is that the price of Hydrogen will go down significantly and the efficiency of fuelcells w...

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by JonesNL
Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:02 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1890
Views: 189189

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

seahawk wrote:
Using what fuel?


Well, the EU wants to force the usage of hydrogen as it is pouring billions and billions in to the hydrogen industry. Which is no guarantee that the industry will be mature enough to power planes, but it does help a lot...

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by JonesNL
Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 398
Views: 44220

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

I don't know what you think, lightsaber, but I think they're smoking weed in Toulouse. Airbus said it had asked suppliers to “protect” a production rate of 47 A320-family jets a month, up from 40, meaning it wants suppliers to be ready to support that rate when needed. It indicated the earliest suc...

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by JonesNL
Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1890
Views: 189189

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Also, if launched, Airbus would certainly be under pressure to do an “A322” I think Airbus is just waiting for the right time to launch the A322 anyway. As the A322 will be, IMO, a much cheaper product to bring to the market, this NMA would have to be exceptionally more efficient to compete. The A3...

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by JonesNL
Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1890
Views: 189189

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

What improved engines might they be thinking about? So existing ones beefed up. Big diameter GTF? GE PIP something? Interesting. What thrust range, 35K to 40K? I always thought this was the place to be for the next aircraft, more so than 50K. Maybe an scaled down version of the GE GE9X? There were ...

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by JonesNL
Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rolls Royce loses £5.4bn, closing two factories, looking to sell assets
Replies: 155
Views: 21633

Re: Rolls Royce loses £5.4bn, closing two factories, looking to sell assets

Lightsaber those numbers are just wrong and you referring to them repeatedly makes no sense. Zeke has a table up on the ge engine certification thread which literally lays out the performance figures as they are. The real world data is consistently 20% or better for the a35k vs 77w. The aircraft in...

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by JonesNL
Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rolls Royce loses £5.4bn, closing two factories, looking to sell assets
Replies: 155
Views: 21633

Re: Rolls Royce loses £5.4bn, closing two factories, looking to sell assets

I found an interesting link on predicted fuel burn for a whole bunch of widebodies (but no A380). It helps to talk to numbers: https://www.aircraft-commerce.com/sample_article_folder/121_FLTOPS_A.pdf Very interesting indeed. I was expecting the A350-1000 to have a much higher performance over the 7...

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by JonesNL
Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders
Replies: 308
Views: 75732

Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Only another 1,100 cancellations to go! Only 3 cancellations last month. It seems Boeing is holding on well as Max gets ready for entry into service. I expect no big cancellations from now on. Plus another 48 removed from the backlog through ASC 606. A backlog that represents more than four years o...

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by JonesNL
Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rolls Royce loses £5.4bn, closing two factories, looking to sell assets
Replies: 155
Views: 21633

Re: Rolls Royce loses £5.4bn, closing two factories, looking to sell assets

[Slightly off topic] Seeing that Rolls Royce is practically bankrupt; is there a possibility that Airbus takes over the relevant engine programs, like Trent, Ultrafan?
Especially seeing that the whole future of their widebodies is so dependant on these current and future programs...

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by JonesNL
Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing releases new CMO (Current market outlook)
Replies: 61
Views: 7838

Re: Boeing releases new CMO (Current market outlook)

Reuters ( https://uk.reuters.com/article/boeing-forecast/boeing-cuts-industry-demand-forecast-on-pandemic-crisis-idUKL1N2GW1ZZ ) has posted a summary: As you suggest the 'dramatic' part is the next year or two. As for 10% decline across a decade, if true it's a big enough thing to those in the indu...

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by JonesNL
Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing releases new CMO (Current market outlook)
Replies: 61
Views: 7838

Re: Boeing releases new CMO (Current market outlook)

They estimate an average of 378 widebody deliveries per year And 1613 single aisle deliveries per year on average over the next 20 years.

Seems over optimistic to me.

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by JonesNL
Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Boeing to Consolidate 787 Production in South Carolina
Replies: 320
Views: 55459

Re: Updated: Boeing to Consolidate 787 Production in South Carolina

The ongoing political unrest in Seattle I am sure does not help either. What political unrest? I live in Seattle. For the City of Seattle proper 99% of it has no unrest. Oh and Boeing has very few operations in the city proper, most are in Everett or Renton. Both of those cities have had no notable...

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by JonesNL
Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Airbus unveils three hydrogen concepts
Replies: 142
Views: 12613

Re: Updated: Airbus unveils three hydrogen concepts

What an utter non-sense. Who likes pollution? But that doesn't automatically make solar / wind power feasible or a good idea. For aircraft: forget technological breakthroughs solving everything, we haven't seen them over the last 60 years, despite 100's of billions in R&D. We have to give up bl...

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by JonesNL
Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Airbus unveils three hydrogen concepts
Replies: 142
Views: 12613

Re: Airbus unveiling three hydrogen concept plane today at 2pm CET

If you build / integrate a windmill, you have to include all the energy required, to create / form / transport the steel, create the basements in the sea, the cabling, power stations and required infrastructure to manage power variations when there is no / too much wind. And after 20 years thye ene...

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by JonesNL
Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:47 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Airbus unveils three hydrogen concepts
Replies: 142
Views: 12613

Re: Airbus unveiling three hydrogen concept plane today at 2pm CET

To build a windmill, put it in a sea, connect it & make sure we have power when there is no wind, remove it after 20-25 years, clean up, costs about the same amount of energy it takes to create / operate. I don't understand what you mean. Can you expand? Your graph suggests that nuclear has no ...

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by JonesNL
Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Airbus unveils three hydrogen concepts
Replies: 142
Views: 12613

Re: Airbus unveiling three hydrogen concept plane today at 2pm CET

Where will all this hydrogen needed come from? From "clean" nuclear energy? Yes. All options taking into account, I see little alternatives. Sun & wind are just the window dressing we love to believe in We ignore the massive energy requirements / current generation because we love to ...

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by JonesNL
Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:01 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EasyJet Electric Aircraft: Engine Test by 2023, Aircraft in Service 2030
Replies: 80
Views: 11657

Re: EasyJet Electric Aircraft: Engine Test by 2023, Aircraft in Service 2030

Sorry for bringing up an oldish thread but just saw this and hence had to share. Seems there are at least 10-15 odd manufacturers who are looking at electric aircraft. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mz4rMq9yt7Y When the electric variant of an training plane costs $3 dollar an hour in fuel compared...

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by JonesNL
Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:05 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 398
Views: 44220

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

I work in that industry. I do not want the layoffs. Boeing and Airbus are running through cash too quickly and airlines are worse off. Airbus' profits in the good times weren't high enough to ride this magnitude of a drop without my previously quoted production drops. Boeing's 2q report had $4.3 bi...

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by JonesNL
Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 398
Views: 44220

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

I can't understand they do not understand that demand is dead for the next 18 months. The only reason that airliners are accepting deliveries are contractual obligations, not because they need it. Shoving your products in your customers throats when they do not want them is never a good long term s...

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by JonesNL
Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 398
Views: 44220

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

I can't understand they do not understand that demand is dead for the next 18 months. The only reason that airliners are accepting deliveries are contractual obligations, not because they need it. Shoving your products in your customers throats when they do not want them is never a good long term s...

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by JonesNL
Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 398
Views: 44220

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

My entire premise above, by the way, is partially biased against being willing to believe as many of the people I know in aerospace will be laid off as would be dictated by a 60% production rate cut. I work in that industry. I do not want the layoffs. Boeing and Airbus are running through cash too ...

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by JonesNL
Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rolls Royce loses £5.4bn, closing two factories, looking to sell assets
Replies: 155
Views: 21633

Re: Rolls Royce loses £5.4bn, closing two factories, looking to sell assets

The liability increase: "This partly reflects big swings in the value of currency derivatives, rather than the underlying health of the business." https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/rolls-royce-is-fast-becoming-a-british-calamity/2020/08/27/f71253f0-e855-11ea-bf44-0d31c85838a5_story....

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by JonesNL
Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020
Replies: 716
Views: 114912

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

.... I understand the Max's MCAS took control over from the pilots and they couldn't shut it off but at least they could have compared AOA sensors and figured out which one was erroneous. Why does it all have to be tied into 1 system. Let the pilots make the decision what info is right and what to ...

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by JonesNL
Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How would a stretched A330neo have fared?
Replies: 60
Views: 7194

Re: How would a stretched A330neo have fared?

Actually I think a smaller true A300 5500nm range replacement would have fared much better. The difference with the A350 would have been much bigger. A true Middle of the market plane...

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by JonesNL
Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A220-300 MTOW is now 156,300 lb
Replies: 47
Views: 10144

Re: A220-300 MTOW is now 156,300 lb

Well, if you accept a range of 2,200 nm and a "comfortable" pitch then it is okay indeed. Do you have an range diagram for 2200 nm with 180pax? or an source that outlines the capabilities of this plane? No. It is a rough order or magnitude. A stretch of the A220-300 will have a lot of lim...

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by JonesNL
Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact
Replies: 251
Views: 28468

Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

... The secondhand A330s and 787s that will come to market will be a threat to both programs though. Also, fuel price will not stay low forever and while it may never reach the peaks of a few years ago, it will not stay at the low levels either. Boeing do not deliver many 787-8 anylore. Most of the...

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by JonesNL
Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A220-300 MTOW is now 156,300 lb
Replies: 47
Views: 10144

Re: A220-300 MTOW is now 156,300 lb

... A 180 seat 5-abreast cabin at same pitch would be shorter than an 195E2 after all, and that seems to be just fine. Well, if you accept a range of 2,200 nm and a "comfortable" pitch then it is okay indeed. Do you have an range diagram for 2200 nm with 180pax? or an source that outlines...

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by JonesNL
Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates Network & Fleet discussion 2020
Replies: 1627
Views: 38319

Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

As I see it, Boeing has the widebody market pretty well covered with the 788/9/J and 778/9. Airbus has their A339 and A359/J. Airbus probably has the bigger hole to fill in their market, but they have the A321LR/XLR, which fits all of the F, all of the J, and 70% of the Y of a 762 on something like...

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by JonesNL
Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020
Replies: 716
Views: 114912

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

American architects Victor Hugo Azevedo and Cheryl Lu Xu have a back-up plan for the 737MAX, just in case the return to service will not go as smoothly as hoped: https://images4.persgroep.net/rcs/aJoKD83_NJU-fbJHb_vGi3pTKZY/diocontent/172939946/_fitwidth/1240?appId=93a17a8fd81db0de025c8abd1cca1279&...

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by JonesNL
Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta A221 Schedule Reliability struggle
Replies: 104
Views: 26342

Re: Delta A221 Schedule Reliability struggle

It does imply a certain reliability. Improvements have been delivered, but not universal. I would like some numbers, but DL has certainly favored the A220. Lightsaber Seeing that all programs production rate took a big hit, with the A22x being the sole exception speaks volumes as well. Probably too...

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by JonesNL
Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta A221 Schedule Reliability struggle
Replies: 104
Views: 26342

Re: Delta A221 Schedule Reliability struggle

Does anyone have any update on this subject? A220 has been one of the Delta workhorses during the pandemic It does imply a certain reliability. Improvements have been delivered, but not universal. I would like some numbers, but DL has certainly favored the A220. Lightsaber Seeing that all programs ...

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