Search found 262 matches

by bkmbr
Thu Jul 09, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy
Replies: 284
Views: 54326

Re: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy

LATAM Brazil was included at the Bankruptcy http://www.latamairlinesgroup.net/static-files/6947cdf2-2f29-4451-a5ae-0874e9282d9d LATAM Airlines Brazil today began a voluntary reorganization process as part of Chapter 11 protection in the United States to restructure its debt and effectively manage it...

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by bkmbr
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy
Replies: 284
Views: 54326

Re: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy

According to a Chilean newspaper, LATAM have confirmed to the US bankruptcy court that Qatar Airways and the Cueto family will invest US$ 900 million dollars in company and the rescue package negotiated with the Chilean government have not been completely ruled out yet. https://www.df.cl/noticias/em...

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by bkmbr
Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: CN3 order 105 ARJ21s from COMAC
Replies: 102
Views: 22006

Re: CN3 order 105 ARJ21s from COMAC

There will be ARJ-21 exports. I hope GE sells each engine at a profit as I do not expect durable enough airframes to last long enough for overhauls. Without FAA certification this aircraft won't go far. I don't think the Chinese are worried about this, the internal Chinese market alone will be able...

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by bkmbr
Sun Jun 28, 2020 4:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: CN3 order 105 ARJ21s from COMAC
Replies: 102
Views: 22006

Re: Air China, China Eastern, China Southern Take Delivery Of ARJ21

I kind like the uniqueness of the old China Eastern, the China Southern and the Air China liveries to be honest.To me they feel very late 80's/early 90's and far from the "eurowhite pandemic" that Pan Am and Lufthansa created. The whole eurowhite livery makes sense on lufthansa, but in man...

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by bkmbr
Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: LATAM shuts down LATAM Argentina
Replies: 54
Views: 8735

Re: LATAM shuts down LATAM Argentina

The Argentine newspaper Clarin published a story with the 68 reasons presented by LATAM to the Argentine government to explain the reasons for closing the company in the country. Some are surreal, but when it comes to Argentina, they are probably true. The original article in Spanish https://www.cla...

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by bkmbr
Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 773
Views: 140228

Re: Breeze - News and Discussion Thread

https://www.airway1.com/breeze-airways- ... y-in-2021/ ) they will start the flights next year and lease agreement for Azul's ERJ-195 still valid but deliveries are temporarily suspended.
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According to this source ( https://www.airway1.com/breeze-airways- ... y-in-2021/ ) they will start the flights next year and lease agreement for Azul's ERJ-195 still valid but deliveries are temporarily suspended.

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by bkmbr
Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Mitsubishi sets June 1st date for acquisition of CRJ program
Replies: 51
Views: 10141

Re: Updated: Mitsubishi sets June 1st date for acquisition of CRJ program

I think that only 125 units a very low number of frames considering the size of the redesign that the M100 would have to go through to be viable within the scope clause limits. If it were something simple they would want to adapt the M70 and not try to redesign practically half of the M90 to reach t...

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by bkmbr
Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Mitsubishi sets June 1st date for acquisition of CRJ program
Replies: 51
Views: 10141

Re: Updated: Mitsubishi sets June 1st date for acquisition of CRJ program

Hybrid regionals may not be a reality now, but come 2030 and they will be being designed and shortly built. Standard regionals need to be delivered before 2030 in order to have any lifespan. With the new ICAO emission standards in 2028, we will already see many planes that will have their productio...

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by bkmbr
Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Are there any jet alternatives to the 737-200C for gravel operations?
Replies: 100
Views: 17490

Re: Are there any jet alternatives to the 737-200C for gravel operations?

Why? Cargo operators have plenty of planes older than that. The availability of parts will probably be the main factor in accelerating or postponing the withdrawal of services from these planes. The MD-80 series in terms of frame age and availability of spare parts will not be much different than t...

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by bkmbr
Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Mitsubishi sets June 1st date for acquisition of CRJ program
Replies: 51
Views: 10141

Re: Updated: Mitsubishi sets June 1st date for acquisition of CRJ program

The Triumph audit gives some hope the M100 can be sold on a reasonable 86,000 lb. Yes, but how many M100 units would Mitsubishi need to sell to break even at this point? Would this be possible without bankrupting the company? In 2011 the whole MRJ program was estimated around ¥200 billion and would...

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by bkmbr
Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Are there any jet alternatives to the 737-200C for gravel operations?
Replies: 100
Views: 17490

Re: There's any jet alternatives for the 737-200C for gravel operations?

These aircraft are so obviously ideal for this operation that some efforts should be made to relax the costly certification requirements, maybe fly these birds on an "experimental" certificate, in conjunction with limiting their use to when & where actually required. I'm not 100% sure...

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by bkmbr
Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: LATAM shuts down LATAM Argentina
Replies: 54
Views: 8735

Re: LATAM shuts down LATAM Argentina

LATAM's announcement of its departure from Argentina's domestic market has set off an internal war between the different factions of the current Peronist administration. On one hand, the moderates, led by Transportation Minister, Mr, Meoni are meeting and working with LATAM towards a possible rever...

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by bkmbr
Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: LATAM shuts down LATAM Argentina
Replies: 54
Views: 8735

Re: LATAM shuts down LATAM Argentina

Well, let's look at the size of the damage so far at LATAM so far: the closure of the Argentine branch, the total dismissal of the ground crew in Paraguay, the suspension of contracts in Colombia, the dismissal of all the company's airport managers in Brazil and the attempt to return of the company...

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by bkmbr
Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: LATAM shuts down LATAM Argentina
Replies: 54
Views: 8735

Re: LATAM shuts down LATAM Argentina

Well, let's look at the size of the damage so far at LATAM so far: the closure of the Argentine branch, the total dismissal of the ground crew in Paraguay, the suspension of contracts in Colombia, the dismissal of all the company's airport managers in Brazil and the attempt to return of the company'...

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by bkmbr
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Azimuth Airlines: An Example of a Successful SSJ Operation
Replies: 14
Views: 1964

Re: Azimuth Airlines: An Example of a Successful SSJ Operation

lightsaber wrote:
The support for the Western owned SSJs was an utter fail. The delays on spare parts were horrid. All 3 airlines had issues.


The several Russian sanctions by the US doesn't help them either.

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by bkmbr
Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Latam and Azul codeshare agreement in Brazil
Replies: 26
Views: 2873

Re: Latam and Azul codeshare agreement in Brazil

If I were to bet I would bet on nothing more than a temporary code share between the 2 companies. LATAM's Chapter 11 process in the USA and Chile expressly excluded LATAM Argentina and LATAM Brazil from this process and yesterday LATAM Argentina was closed. I think it is quite reasonable to believe ...

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by bkmbr
Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Mitsubishi SpaceJet — Flight Test & Production Thread
Replies: 497
Views: 102440

Re: Mitsubishi SpaceJet — Flight Test & Production Thread

Hard to really call the situation “bad/wrong timing” given that its closest (same-generation) competitor doesn’t exactly have any orders itself - and given all the possible deferrals coming down the line due to this pandemic it may actually work out in their favour. Either way they just announced a...

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by bkmbr
Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Azimuth Airlines: An Example of a Successful SSJ Operation
Replies: 14
Views: 1964

Re: Azimuth Airlines: An Example of a Successful SSJ Operation

pranav7478 wrote:
Wayfarer515 wrote:
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4379792

- First airline with an all SSJ fleet(Interjet is now the second one)

when did interjet become an all ssj airline? i thought they always had problems with it


When the A320s were taken over by the lessors

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by bkmbr
Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:26 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Azimuth Airlines: An Example of a Successful SSJ Operation
Replies: 14
Views: 1964

Re: Azimuth Airlines: An Example of a Successful SSJ Operation

I think the SSJ is a bit neglected in the west. Sukhoi have certainly have had issues with supporting their existing fleet but it seems like a great little airplane. Most Russian planes, since the days of the Soviet Union, are technically very interesting (I personally am a fan of the TU-154 and IL...

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by bkmbr
Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Mitsubishi SpaceJet — Flight Test & Production Thread
Replies: 497
Views: 102440

Re: Mitsubishi SpaceJet — Flight Test & Production Thread

You’d think some here in this forum would be happy that they’re actually correcting design issues the airplane had BEFORE entering service - especially those that potentially would have an impact on safety and operational reliability. But some instead choose to derail the discussion repeatedly with...

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by bkmbr
Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: LATAM shuts down LATAM Argentina
Replies: 54
Views: 8735

Re: LATAM shuts down LATAM Argentina

The closing of LATAM Argentina has set off a political storm within Argentina's combative unions and the many factions of the Peronist government. Pablo Biro, the leader at APLA, the pilots' union, (a good chunk of LATAM's pilots walked out from APLA last year to form an independent union) is calli...

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by bkmbr
Thu Jun 18, 2020 12:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: LATAM shuts down LATAM Argentina
Replies: 54
Views: 8735

Re: LATAM shuts down LATAM Argentina

And things are not looking brighter for LATAM Colombia either. While stopping short of suspending its operations, its CEO announced that the airline is temporarily suspending all labor contracts, not knowing when they will be allowed to resume services. https://desdeelpatio.com.ar/nota.php?id=579&a...

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by bkmbr
Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Mitsubishi SpaceJet — Flight Test & Production Thread
Replies: 497
Views: 102440

Re: Mitsubishi SpaceJet — Flight Test & Production Thread

Let's just forget the M100, even Mitsubishi throw in the towel on him.

And as far as I know the MRJ doesn't have a underneath cargo compartment like the ERJ. As far as I remember the cargo compartment on the MRJ jets is behind the rear galley.

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by bkmbr
Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy
Replies: 284
Views: 54326

Re: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy

LATAM just announced the cessation of the LATAM Argentina's operations, both for passengers and cargo, for an indefinite period News article in English https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/latam-airlines-argentina-ceases-operations-and-other-subsidiaries-will-continue-to-operate-international-destinat...

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by bkmbr
Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Mitsubishi SpaceJet — Flight Test & Production Thread
Replies: 497
Views: 102440

Re: Mitsubishi SpaceJet — Flight Test & Production Thread

M90 will have its certification soon or later and will gain some orders, specially operators within Japan, I never doubt that, but the timing for the plane is gone. If the M90 had entered the market 5/10 years before 175E2 it would have a significant advantage over it by offering to the market somet...

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by bkmbr
Wed Jun 17, 2020 2:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Mitsubishi SpaceJet — Flight Test & Production Thread
Replies: 497
Views: 102440

Re: Mitsubishi SpaceJet — Flight Test & Production Thread

Japanese conglomerates are similar to how venture funds work in the US. The central nexus is a bank or fund, which often passes its name onto any subsidiary that it has a share in, and has a somewhat "arms length" control over the subsidiary. Mitsubishi still has control and influence ove...

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by bkmbr
Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Latam and Azul codeshare agreement in Brazil
Replies: 26
Views: 2873

Re: Latam and Azul codeshare agreement in Brazil

I could be wrong but this could be the first step for AD to somehow acquire LATAM Brazil. Would of course face an uphill battle within Brazil's regulatory agencies but makes way too much sense for all players involved. Rumor is already spreading that Latam Brasil would be absorved into Azul. Latam ...

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by bkmbr
Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Are there any jet alternatives to the 737-200C for gravel operations?
Replies: 100
Views: 17490

Re: There's any jet alternatives for the 737-200C for gravel operations?

Thinking out of the box what about either An72 or An74 which could be still in production? Terry Smith Kharkiv State Aircraft Manufacturing company lists An-74 as a product: http://www.ksamc.com.ua/en/production.html Antonov, their former corporate parent, would try to steer you to its newer offeri...

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by bkmbr
Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Mitsubishi SpaceJet — Flight Test & Production Thread
Replies: 497
Views: 102440

Re: Mitsubishi SpaceJet — Flight Test & Production Thread

28 January 2015 - Japan Airlines - 32 Firm orders according to https://www.flightglobal.com/jal-firms-up-order-for-32-mrj-aircraft/115742.article . ANA has 15 on order too. This plane has swept the market ;) as its closest competitor (175E2) has no orders. :stirthepot: Thanks to the artificial limi...

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by bkmbr
Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Latam and Azul codeshare agreement in Brazil
Replies: 26
Views: 2873

Re: Latam and Azul codeshare agreement in Brazil

How big would a LATAM-Azul compared to Gol? Latam-Azul together have 58% of domestic market IMHO this agreement will have a lot of problems to have the approval by CADE, the Brazil's national competition regulator the way it appears right now. The "50 non-overlapping domestic routes" are ...

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by bkmbr
Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Mitsubishi SpaceJet — Flight Test & Production Thread
Replies: 497
Views: 102440

Re: Mitsubishi SpaceJet — Flight Test & Production Thread

Whomever partners in China takes a risk of IP theft. The program has been a major learning curve on the difference between certified design and production and automotive production. Any comercial partnership, regardless of the nationality of the companies, have risks of IP theft, and moreover, it’s...

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by bkmbr
Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Boeing Terminates Agreement to Establish Joint Ventures with Embraer
Replies: 1171
Views: 147388

Re: Updated: Boeing Terminates Agreement to Establish Joint Ventures with Embraer

Embraer announced this afternoon in Brazil that has just secured a US$ 600 million loan (half by BNDES and half bay private banks) in exchange the company will not lay off any employees for two months after receiving the loan. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-embraer-management/embraer-secures-600...

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by bkmbr
Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Are there any jet alternatives to the 737-200C for gravel operations?
Replies: 100
Views: 17490

Re: There's any jet alternatives for the 737-200C for gravel operations?

f4f3a wrote:
What about a dornier 328? High mounted engine reasonably short field performance ..comes in either jet or prop


To small. 328 jet for example have only 3.2 ton / 7,200 lbs of max payload. The Q400 for example have a 8.6 ton / 19,112 lbs of max payload in comparison.

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by bkmbr
Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Boeing Terminates Agreement to Establish Joint Ventures with Embraer
Replies: 1171
Views: 147388

Re: Updated: Boeing Terminates Agreement to Establish Joint Ventures with Embraer

Embraer begun the "re-reorganization" of the company after the failed joint venture. Embraer's press release: Embraer announces Arjan Meijer as President and CEO of Commercial Aviation business SÃO PAULO - June 15th, 2020 – Embraer started today its restructuring process with the reintegra...

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by bkmbr
Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Are there any jet alternatives to the 737-200C for gravel operations?
Replies: 100
Views: 17490

Re: There's any jet alternatives for the 737-200C for gravel operations?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8iitOBmRdY The AN-148/158/178 is a really interesting aircraft family but lets be honest, the changes to see them operating regularly in Canada is zero. Not only due the problems related to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia but also because the aircraft is not...

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by bkmbr
Sat Jun 13, 2020 8:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer's has projects for a new turboprop plane [June/2020]
Replies: 127
Views: 17817

Re: Embraer's has projects for a new turboprop plane [June/2020]

After the huge loss of the 340/2000 project I have serious doubts as to whether SAAB would risk entering the commercial aviation sector again.

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by bkmbr
Sat Jun 13, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Are there any jet alternatives to the 737-200C for gravel operations?
Replies: 100
Views: 17490

Re: There's any jet alternatives for the 737-200C for gravel operations?

The choice of replacement has to also accomplish two tasks; - Operarte in a "Combi" format. - Offer as much fleet commonality as possible with remaining operations of the airline (and potentially be able to be used when said airlines may need to expand to other, prepared fields. Maybe and...

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by bkmbr
Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer's has projects for a new turboprop plane [June/2020]
Replies: 127
Views: 17817

Re: Embraer's has projects for a new turboprop plane [June/2020]

That would be difficult to answer (about blade angles impact), but here are a couple of articles about turboprop vs jet things: http://www.spsairbuz.com/story/?id=417 http://theflyingengineer.com/aircraft/proud-to-fly-a-turboprop-q400-vs-atr72/ A quote: "The ATR 72 is the lesser of the two tur...

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by bkmbr
Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Mitsubishi SpaceJet — Flight Test & Production Thread
Replies: 497
Views: 102440

Re: Mitsubishi Aircraft to cut over half its workforce and close offices around the world

Probably both. at this rate I'm starting to have doubts if Mitsubishi will be able to finish the certification program of the M90 to begin with.

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by bkmbr
Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer's has projects for a new turboprop plane [June/2020]
Replies: 127
Views: 17817

Re: Embraer's has projects for a new turboprop plane [June/2020]

The TU-114 was pretty fast as well just as his "older brother". He was also the loudest commercial airplane ever produced thanks to the Sonic boom produced by the propellers. - Maximum speed: 870 km/h (540 mph, 470 kn) at 8,000 m (26,000 ft) - Cruise speed: 770 km/h (480 mph, 420 kn) at 9,...

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by bkmbr
Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:56 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Are there any jet alternatives to the 737-200C for gravel operations?
Replies: 100
Views: 17490

Re: There's any jet alternatives for the 737-200C for gravel operations?

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Paving worked for Red Dog Mine, most Aussie mines are serviced by air at paved runways.


Yes, but I imagine that most Aussie mines are also serviced by 365 day road access, not a thing that most Canadian mine have. Probably in some mines equipment and supplier would need to be hauled by aircraft.

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by bkmbr
Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:56 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Are there any jet alternatives to the 737-200C for gravel operations?
Replies: 100
Views: 17490

Re: There's any jet alternatives for the 737-200C for gravel operations?

prebennorholm wrote:
The alternative is likely to be paved runways.

It isn't all that easy or cheap in areas with permafrost. But it is doable. It works in Greenland, and can be made to work in Canada as well.

And once made it has a lot of advantages.


Will this be a viable option for mines?

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by bkmbr
Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:43 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy
Replies: 284
Views: 54326

Re: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy

According to the court fillings and news articles online, LATAM is going to return 19 aircraft and renegotiate other 129 aircraft with the lessors: Will be returned to the lessors: Airbus A319 PR-MAL Airbus A320 PR-MAZ Airbus A321 PT-XPM, PT-XPN, PT-XPQ, PT-XPJ, PT-XPL, CC-BEE, CC-BEF, CC-BEG, CC-BE...

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by bkmbr
Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: First electrical airplane in the world certified !
Replies: 53
Views: 6973

Re: First electrical airplane in the world certified !

This engine on a motor glider would be a very interesting plane.

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by bkmbr
Fri Jun 12, 2020 1:04 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Are there any jet alternatives to the 737-200C for gravel operations?
Replies: 100
Views: 17490

Are there any jet alternatives to the 737-200C for gravel operations?

I was watching Sam Chui's video on Nolinor's 737-200C video operating on gravel and I was curious to know what type of planes could be used in the future to replace those classic birds in the not too distant future, but I didn't get to see many options. Ignoring the comercial grade turboprops (ATR a...

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by bkmbr
Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer's has projects for a new turboprop plane [June/2020]
Replies: 127
Views: 17817

Re: Embraer's has projects for a new turboprop plane [June/2020]

No way. Such an explicit subsidy action only makes it easier for Brazil to financially support Embraer in projects such as Advanced Turboprop as well as a competitor to the A320 / 321 family. Even that Embraer had such money would be difficult to see the company going ahead with 2 such big projects...

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by bkmbr
Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer's has projects for a new turboprop plane [June/2020]
Replies: 127
Views: 17817

Re: Embraer's has projects for a new turboprop plane [June/2020]

IMHO this date to enter service around 2030 is completely unrealistic considering the state of lack of maturity of alternatives to current engines. Airbus and RR just scraped the E-Fan project recently for example.

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by bkmbr
Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer's has projects for a new turboprop plane [June/2020]
Replies: 127
Views: 17817

Re: Embraer's has projects for a new turboprop plane [June/2020]

In fairness to the Electra II, thats over almost 50 years of operations. Most of the losses were the 3 crashes shortly after IOC (American, Braniff and NWA). Eastern never lost one IIRC. Many of the them were operated at the end by small cargo outfits (Zantop was my favorite). If you add in the rec...

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by bkmbr
Sun Jun 07, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer's has projects for a new turboprop plane [June/2020]
Replies: 127
Views: 17817

Re: Embraer's has projects for a new turboprop plane [June/2020]

Yes, but the 1959 Braniff and the 1960 Northwest crashes made the Electra gain the "Killer Airliner" nickname by the american media, this and the appearance of 707 they made Electra quickly go out of service in American companies and, IMHO, it is the source of all the problems that TPs sti...

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by bkmbr
Sun Jun 07, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer's has projects for a new turboprop plane [June/2020]
Replies: 127
Views: 17817

Re: Embraer's has projects for a new turboprop plane [June/2020]

Antaras wrote:
A electrical quad-turboprop with the size of a A319/A320/B739 would be a perfect plane.

And I guess that I need to wait for some more 10-20 years :D


I would say that we will have to wait for some more 40-50 years.

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