Search found 125 matches

by 75driver
Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 861
Views: 103187

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

I’ll be the first to admit these booking numbers have looked good. Seemed like decent news when you also look at the TSA numbers but it’s not translating to many more butts in the seats. Airlines canceled 100’s of thousands of flights combined for Oct and Nov. Even doing so has left them flying a h...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 861
Views: 103187

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

I think everyone is making the same bet, that most of the restrictions and quarantines go away in the weeks following November 3rd. I would be flabbergasted and can’t see any way airlines plan their schedules around the events of early November. There’s no way restrictions and/or quarantines end du...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Mon Oct 12, 2020 2:52 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 861
Views: 103187

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

I’ll be the first to admit these booking numbers have looked good. Seemed like decent news when you also look at the TSA numbers but it’s not translating to many more butts in the seats. Airlines canceled 100’s of thousands of flights combined for Oct and Nov. Even doing so has left them flying a hu...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Sun Oct 11, 2020 6:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max
Replies: 526
Views: 97903

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Delta has 100 options for A320neo. That means a price has already been set. No need to play games like you suggest. If Delta wants to retire the 717 early in 2025 then an agreement must be reached with Boeing Capital. That's why the Max is a wildcard. Either a deal must be made or Delta will be pay...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max
Replies: 526
Views: 97903

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Based on everything i'm reading, I feel that Delta's actual choices are the following: 1-Make a deal with Boeing, trade 717 for 737Max, if inevitable layoffs happen...blame it on Covid and defend your 717 trade by bringing up the 2023 required modification + covid and that Boeing threw a 737MAX Dea...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Sat Oct 10, 2020 5:25 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 139
Views: 20137

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Debt: $3.38 billion usd assets: $1.69 billion usd https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/airasia-x-airline-debt-restructuring-covid-19-travel-malaysia-13213524 When debt is twice assets, the company is done. When is the question. Not doubting your conclusion, but reading the article, it give...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Sat Oct 10, 2020 3:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max
Replies: 526
Views: 97903

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Agree with our friend from PSU although I’m not sure how much info comes out about Bus’ orders. The earnings report is going to be bleak. Delta is having to account for the huge number of VEOP’s and it’s my understanding they charge 100% of it in Q3 financials. Can’t see any orders being talked abou...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max
Replies: 526
Views: 97903

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

A few months ago I didn’t think DL was a player for the Max but I do now. Don’t think you’ll see an order until we get through the next 6 months unless Boeing comes with some insanely attractive price or a creative financing deal. There are plenty available and it’s a buyers market. It adds to the d...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 288
Views: 29657

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

The absolutely ridiculous predictions like never returning to 2019 air travel levels, especially for business travel are just absurd and laughable. Business travel may never return to the 2019 percentage of air travel, but it will surely surpass the absolute 2019 levels, likely with 5 years. Comple...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 288
Views: 29657

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

With just a little luck one year from now enough people will have been vaccinated so that the economy will be set to recover. That is the good news. The bad news is that we have several more months of economic disaster in multiple sectors of the economy. Economists should be able at the point to as...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 139
Views: 20137

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Has there been any case of an airline getting out of such a mountain of trouble and avoiding bankruptcy? Just recently. Norwegian - with a massive debt to equity conversion and lease returns Virgin Aus - with debt haircuts, lease returns and new investment from Bain Capital Norwegian is far from “o...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 139
Views: 20137

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Lots of people here seeming to be pleased at a bleaker future for the A330neo......I'll pretend to be surprised. . It's not being pleased, it's recognizing reality. Some of these orders were rubbish, but reality was suspended for a bit. Thank you! I’m reading this topic and don’t see anyone celebra...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:34 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 288
Views: 29657

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

I think in most places (save for Hong Kong) downward tends in passenger travel is probably over. This topic is about production of new aircraft and that trend still hasn’t hit bottom. How many new aircraft have been put into service in the last 5-10 years? Those planes will still be flying 20 years ...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 288
Views: 29657

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

It’s seems that every estimate or piece of news that comes out is getting revised down . I haven’t seen a single story or stake holder claim a more optimistic view vs previous claims. It’s almost like there is no recovery, it’s just a continued downward trend for manufacturers and their supply chain...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Tue Oct 06, 2020 4:32 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 288
Views: 29657

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

It seems like airlines are playing chicken with scheduling as much as A & B are with production. They continue to operate at 50-55% capacity when demand is in the 30% range. How long can they sustain flying 25% excess capacity and justify it? My guess is none of the airlines want to miss the ex...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff
Replies: 324
Views: 71191

Re: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff

It looks like everyone else here has lost interest in SAA. In an assessment dated 4th October it is advised that the South African government should pursue a relationship with Ethiopian to have any future for SAA. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-05/south-africa-told-to-look-to-ethio...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:02 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 288
Views: 29657

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

It seems like airlines are playing chicken with scheduling as much as A & B are with production. They continue to operate at 50-55% capacity when demand is in the 30% range. How long can they sustain flying 25% excess capacity and justify it? My guess is none of the airlines want to miss the exp...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Sat Oct 03, 2020 6:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Cathay Pacific News and Discussion thread
Replies: 466
Views: 116441

Re: Cathay Pacific News and Discussion thread

I can’t see Cathay making it out of this mess without a major makeover or getting absorbed/combined/assimilated into or with another carrier. Management has been dancing around staffing for months and the pilot groups standing is about to be non-existent. From the article: “ The CEO admitted to a st...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Sat Oct 03, 2020 6:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Demographics of GA aircraft owners
Replies: 43
Views: 6044

Re: Demographics of GA aircraft owners

I’ve owned some sort of piper variant since the late 80’s. It started out as a partnership but I long ago became a sole owner. I could never have done it on my own. My wife has a lucrative career and always made more money. I was (before the recent VEOP) a commercial pilot and partnerships used to b...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL parks some A220s
Replies: 67
Views: 14797

Re: DL parks A220s

Our union has a meeting tomorrow where we should find out more about our current tentative agreement for cost cutting... I received a text earlier saying the union narrowly approved the measure. Did you hear anything? It would be a big step but there’s still a huge hurdle with furloughs especially ...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL parks some A220s
Replies: 67
Views: 14797

Re: DL parks A220s

This was inevitable and quite frankly they need to be parking more metal and quit returning aircraft to service. We are still flying way over capacity and senior crew will not accept junior 220 drivers avoiding furlough when they are getting kicked to the curb or reduced hours. I don’t see many road...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Majority of LH Shareholders are Voting for Rescue Package
Replies: 624
Views: 70758

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

I think you’re going to see that Lufthansa is the brightest bulb in the room and as the months go by will be hailed as visionaries. They seem to be looking past those holding out their hands for more government money and realizing their business needs to survive long term without constant government...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:34 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 288
Views: 29657

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

I would also point that we may be too western-centric in our analysis of the state of the airline industry. I just had a look at Air China traffic data. In August, their domestic RPKs were down 17% only vs Aug 2019 while the overall RPKs were down 49%. It's not as dramatic as the figures we see in ...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Fri Sep 25, 2020 4:18 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Possibility of second Civil War in US and State Borders
Replies: 89
Views: 5036

Re: Possibility of second Civil War in US and State Borders

I believe we are in something of a "cold civil war" right now. Both sides vehemently hate each other, draw weapons on each other at protests, and recently, have begun killing each other. The flames are fanned on by POTUS who sees the unrest as working to his electoral advantage. Here in m...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Fri Sep 25, 2020 4:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 288
Views: 29657

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

I would also point that we may be too western-centric in our analysis of the state of the airline industry. I just had a look at Air China traffic data. In August, their domestic RPKs were down 17% only vs Aug 2019 while the overall RPKs were down 49%. It's not as dramatic as the figures we see in ...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Fri Sep 25, 2020 4:06 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Rumour China Lying About COVID Numbers and Lockdowns
Replies: 20
Views: 1860

Rumour China Lying About COVID Numbers and Lockdowns

For those who may have picked up on a post I made in the aviation forum, here is the back story. My wife’s alumni group started a weekly zoom meeting to reconnect with old friends and exchange stories during the COVId pandemic. One of her alums teaches English in Beijing along with her daughter. I’v...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 861
Views: 103187

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

What new test does Walgreens have that turns around in 1-2 days? It seen anything about it.

Jump to post
by 75driver
Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 288
Views: 29657

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

This is more to build on your comment (I'm not rebutting): So it seems they are confident that the gain from this year's production is worse than the pain of impacting the supply chain, but next year could be more of a challenge. Kinda interesting given the article says they already have 170 jets t...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Cathay Pacific News and Discussion thread
Replies: 466
Views: 116441

Re: Cathay Pacific News and Discussion thread

Some interesting news on the employment front. https://hk.appledaily.com/news/20200924/5ESFM2IAD5GQHMM5JZ5T26JCNE/ “Cathay pilots ‘suggest half-pay’ to pre-empt job cuts” “ The arrangement, dubbed “Half Pay Leave Scheme,” can last till the end of next year, in the suggestion made by the Hong Kong Ai...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 288
Views: 29657

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

On a more optimistic note, the airlines are not done fighting to get the passenger demand back to a more substantial level. Look at the protocol that Lufthansa is trying to implement: https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-germany-travel-airlines-5860e7c3adf1edc863662caa6aaa978a If implemented, ...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Thu Sep 24, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 288
Views: 29657

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

The issue is neither can afford the size of hole they are digging financially. Indeed. It seems they misjudged the situation. They thought they could get the markets to loan them enough money to get through a few months of crisis and everything would be better by then. Turns out that governments an...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 288
Views: 29657

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

Directly from The Times in UK today. Not sure if this is just bluster but according to Guillaume Faury the are not playing chicken. Can’t see his doomsday scenario happening but pretty safe to say the signs point to minimal production across the board. Airbus in danger of going under, says chief exe...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: NAV CANADA announces workforce reductions
Replies: 52
Views: 5889

Re: NAV CANADA announces workforce reductions

Wasn’t there a push some years ago to raise the retirement age from 56? Whatever happened with that? I’ve always thought it seemed low but what do I know. I imagine there is still some fuel in the tank after 56 and if ATC gets in a bind pushing that back a little might be an option. Maybe more curre...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: NAV CANADA announces workforce reductions
Replies: 52
Views: 5889

Re: NAV CANADA announces workforce reductions

Ive changed my entire thought process on seniority priority. It would never sit well with my colleagues but you can’t sacrifice the future for near term seniority privilege when the very people you displace will be the ones taking the industry through the next decades, not single digit years. I’m n...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Cathay Pacific News and Discussion thread
Replies: 466
Views: 116441

Re: Cathay Pacific News and Discussion thread

Had an interesting zoom chat with one of my closest friends who went the expat route with Cathay many years ago. He wanted the adventure of living in HK and has loved it but he thinks the airline might have the highest percentage of unneeded pilots industry wide. He said approx 3500 are on property ...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: NAV CANADA announces workforce reductions
Replies: 52
Views: 5889

Re: NAV CANADA announces workforce reductions

Ive changed my entire thought process on seniority priority. It would never sit well with my colleagues but you can’t sacrifice the future for near term seniority privilege when the very people you displace will be the ones taking the industry through the next decades, not single digit years. I’m no...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 861
Views: 103187

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Well I see "Now things are coming back" but I don't think this was mean't to say things are returning to normal. The literal meaning of “coming back” is returning to where you started. I’ve got way too many friends and colleagues hopeful for another bailout or expecting some epiphany that...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020
Replies: 716
Views: 114004

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Then you got this guy telling Sky that “many many in the industry never thought there was anything wrong in the first place”. You really need to watch and listen to this dude trying to ‘splain it away. Sheesh. :banghead: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/airlineratings-editor-discusses-major-flaws...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 861
Views: 103187

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

I don’t get the impression anyone wished or hoped for Armageddon. We’ve already realized Armageddon and it’s now the aftermath of recovery. What does seem odd is many thinking we went through some blip and it’s all coming back to normal. These booking numbers don’t indicate anything near normal nor ...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:30 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A little light hearted ATC fun...
Replies: 51
Views: 8079

Re: A little light hearted ATC fun...

It is absolutely inappropriate and the correct annunciation is “TIE-RON”. I was in this airspace last week and have had this same junction before. I’ve never heard anyone say “TIE-ROWN”. This YouTube is NOT funny. I love my ATC guys and know they put up with enormous stress. I’ve also had my share o...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JZA8615 TSB report released
Replies: 47
Views: 6542

Re: JZA8615 TSB report released

Put auto-locks on the bins. Only open when the aeroplane comes to a complete stop or when the seatbelt sign is off. :) Typical of the unhelpful suggestions about what to do about passengers taking their stuff with them in an evacuation. Bins locked just means aisles blocked as passengers try to ope...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Sat Sep 05, 2020 11:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 2164
Views: 385088

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Congratulations to the Delta flight attendants! It does bring up two questions for me. Of the three major airlines, how was Delta able to achieve zero furloughs (for flight attendants) and the other two furloughs in the thousands. The other is how could Delta in concert with the pilots union furthe...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Sat Sep 05, 2020 9:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JZA8615 TSB report released
Replies: 47
Views: 6542

Re: JZA8615 TSB report released

Put auto-locks on the bins. Only open when the aeroplane comes to a complete stop or when the seatbelt sign is off. :)

Jump to post
by 75driver
Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020
Replies: 716
Views: 114004

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

So what’s the final outcome on EASA’s position about a third AOA sensor? Based on the recent news Boeing has no intention of making hardware changes except the separation of a wiring harnesses. That doesn’t cut it based on what EASA was requesting. Is EASA just going to accept it without one? I find...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Best airframe for fire-fighting tankers
Replies: 53
Views: 6898

Re: Best airframe for fire-fighting tankers

If I lived in a fire prone area I would be all over grabbing a seat on one of these aircraft. It’s awesome freehand flying and so much different than commercial. When I was a young kid I got the chance to go up in one of the “target” planes which was an incredible experience. I don’t know if they st...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020
Replies: 234
Views: 358683

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

https://www.easa.europa.eu/newsroom-and ... ng-737-max
-->

What’s up with these “final actions” Boeing is said to complete? Shouldn’t a fully configured and certifiable aircraft be presented for approval?

https://www.easa.europa.eu/newsroom-and ... ng-737-max

Jump to post
by 75driver
Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 861
Views: 103187

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

People getting on flights care very little about cleaning. Those this concerned are not going to get on an airplane, particularly a full one from a big busy airport. People want cheap flights and they want to know that if COVID 19 takes a turn for the worse making travel difficult or impossible (ha...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19
Replies: 861
Views: 103187

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Seems as though the US3 are doing everything they can to stimulate leisure demand. Removing change fees and making BE fares less restrictive. However, I think some of this is designed long term to clip the ULCCs and their business model. I think airlines are looking at their models and realizing th...

Jump to post
by 75driver
Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:09 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL/NW Merger....12 Years Later
Replies: 120
Views: 15890

Re: DL/NW Merger....12 Years Later

I don’t care about livery, lanyards, fare or service levels but I can say two of my best friends have come from the merger. There was a lot of consternation among pilots but in the end it turned out positive. I doubt either airline would like to take it back.

Jump to post