Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

The booking trends don't seem to relate to actual TSA counts. I would expect a correlation between the reported booking numbers in this topic vs the actual passenger counts reported by TSA but I'm not seeing it. I've taken a cursory look at previous booking predictions and not seeing the corroborati...

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Worst day for TSA throughput yesterday, Tuesday Jan. 26 since the July 4th holiday. Just about 480,000 passengers And a normal year is only 1.6. No one travels this time of year. The TSA numbers are eerily proportional to day over day numbers compared to 2020. Maybe "eerily" is the wrong ...

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

As another anecdotal observation, today was the quietest I’ve seen in the last few months at the 3 FBO’s I visited. I’ve been able to almost correlate the TSA numbers with the traffic I’ve observed at my FBO’s and today was no different. It was the quietest day Ive seen yet. The panhandle was dead a...

Re: Boeing to close Seattle R&D center

Aircellist wrote:

62 millions $ but no severance pay…

I don't know how to comment that…

Re: Boeing to close Seattle R&D center

It’s pains me to see what the Seattle area has become and it’s more than politics or unions. The social issues have divided the region and the current city council is one of those woke police cancel culture entities. I’m not in a position to comment on the business climate but the social positions t...

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

TSA numbers from previous week Dec 28 - Jan 03 2021 both days included are at 7,495,360 (47%) compared to the same weekdays in 2019- 2020 15,948,520. And again Sunday was the King of the week with a record 1,327,289 during the pandemic. https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput Consideri...

Re: Cathay Pacific News and Discussion Thread - 2021

Is it possible to bring over some posts, maybe the last page, from the previous topic to keep some continuity? patrickw421 wrote: CX Flyboy wrote: HK residents can still enter - you cannot be banned from entering your home! However you must quarantine for 21 days. Apparently they don't think this wa...

Re: Alaska Airlines limits Emotional Support Animals

Thank god! The people that abused this “privilege” were annoying and belligerent. Some of the crap they tried to pawn off as some kind of support beast was absurd. Good riddance.

Re: Delta mass cancellations over Thanksgiving week

I suspect that this weekend's chaos could be an indication of how things will be as the world opens up to travel again. The greatest issue for crewing is that it takes pilots to train other pilots. Currently instructors who are generally more senior, are flying mostly line segments. To retrain othe...

Re: Delta 83 Cancellations 11/25 What Happened?

The company definitely failed here but it’s on several fronts. This is the downside of VEOP’s, pilots lacking recency training, jettisoned fleets with pilots who need training on what aircraft is available, UNA’s, slips not being picked up at their usual rate, etc. It’s a whole host of issues and no...

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

Isn’t there a way to correlate the booking trends with actual TSA numbers? After glancing over the TSA reports it’s been flat or slightly declining since the 1M+ day a few weeks back. The previous booking reports should have indicated that was going to happen. It would seem you can predict future TS...

Re: Official Election thread

Mostly because the people that pay attention to it, lack the education to ignore hyperbole, misdirection, propaganda, and marketing. This is the most misrepresented fallacy I see repeated. Do you not think there is somewhat of a trade off between uneducated urban voters and uneducated rural voters?...

Re: Official Election thread

Mostly because the people that pay attention to it, lack the education to ignore hyperbole, misdirection, propaganda, and marketing. This is the most misrepresented fallacy I see repeated. Do you not think there is somewhat of a trade off between uneducated urban voters and uneducated rural voters?...

Re: Official Election thread

I have heard this point made several times in different places: All those Republican wins are fraudulent as well since the Biden win was on the same ballot. Haven't you figured it out now that the only legitimate wins are for Republicans. They're fine with the media calling Republican wins, but if ...

Re: N400PW Ditches in the Pacific

I’m glad they are safe but I’m confused. Since when is a PC-12 capable of flying safely over 2000NM from California to Hawaii? That sounds beyond the aircrafts safe flying range. Has Pilatus expanded capability recently? I’m not up to date but that distance seems unrealistic. It was a ferry flight,...

Re: N400PW Ditches in the Pacific

I’m glad they are safe but I’m confused. Since when is a PC-12 capable of flying safely over 2400 miles from California to Hawaii? That sounds beyond the aircrafts safe flying range. Has Pilatus expanded capability recently? I’m not up to date but that distance seems unrealistic.

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

It’s rather shocking when you look at the numbers @lightsaber so meticulously pointed out. I appreciate his detail and research while putting hard numbers on what we’ve likely known for some time. It seemed there was going to be a tremendous backlog but when you start talking about the actual number...

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

Posters here should look at the delivery numbers at Airbus. Just to declare into thin air that 47 A320f family frames a month is unsustainable, because Boeing is in trouble does not make any sense. Airbus has delivered 282 A320 family frames by end of September this year, that means contractual del...

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

That arm twisting is going to start breaking a few off if this madness continues. I said weeks ago both manufacturers could idle their lines for a year but I might have been too optimistic. Its been expertly pointed out in this topic and painfully obvious the number of perfectly good used, new or ne...

Re: WN to Launch IAH and ORD service in 2021

You have to tip your cap to them for probing these routes/frequency while trying to find new pockets of opportunity. At this time though all schedules are extremely soft and subject to change at any moment. There is no guaranty any will operate as planned or operate at all. 3 months from now seems l...

Re: Passenger elevates altercation, involves DL Captain with no mask

There had to be more going on to get the Capt out of his seat. I only had to do so a few times and if it wasn’t resolved in the first couple sentences the passenger was off the aircraft. The only mistake the Capt made was engaging someone who was obviously looking to make a scene. He should have rea...

Re: Southwest CEO: ‘The ship is taking on water’

Those of us in the airline/travel industry are hanging on by a thread. I'm convinced without additional stimulus from Uncle Sam, we're gonna lose a major US carrier in the next 12 months. Hell, we're already seeing consolidation in the travel industry. That means a lot of travel jobs that went away...

Re: Cathay Pacific News and Discussion thread

The ongoing demise of Cathay as a worldwide premier carrier is really sad to watch and it’s not over. The reorganization and absorbing Dragon is likely the start of what will result in an unrecognizable Cathay in the not too distant future. More cuts and changes are on the way. Contemplating aircraf...

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

I’ll be the first to admit these booking numbers have looked good. Seemed like decent news when you also look at the TSA numbers but it’s not translating to many more butts in the seats. Airlines canceled 100’s of thousands of flights combined for Oct and Nov. Even doing so has left them flying a h...

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

I think everyone is making the same bet, that most of the restrictions and quarantines go away in the weeks following November 3rd. I would be flabbergasted and can’t see any way airlines plan their schedules around the events of early November. There’s no way restrictions and/or quarantines end du...

Re: US Airline Booking Trends during COVID-19

I’ll be the first to admit these booking numbers have looked good. Seemed like decent news when you also look at the TSA numbers but it’s not translating to many more butts in the seats. Airlines canceled 100’s of thousands of flights combined for Oct and Nov. Even doing so has left them flying a hu...

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Delta has 100 options for A320neo. That means a price has already been set. No need to play games like you suggest. If Delta wants to retire the 717 early in 2025 then an agreement must be reached with Boeing Capital. That's why the Max is a wildcard. Either a deal must be made or Delta will be pay...

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Based on everything i'm reading, I feel that Delta's actual choices are the following: 1-Make a deal with Boeing, trade 717 for 737Max, if inevitable layoffs happen...blame it on Covid and defend your 717 trade by bringing up the 2023 required modification + covid and that Boeing threw a 737MAX Dea...

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Debt: $3.38 billion usd assets: $1.69 billion usd https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/airasia-x-airline-debt-restructuring-covid-19-travel-malaysia-13213524 When debt is twice assets, the company is done. When is the question. Not doubting your conclusion, but reading the article, it give...

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Agree with our friend from PSU although I’m not sure how much info comes out about Bus’ orders. The earnings report is going to be bleak. Delta is having to account for the huge number of VEOP’s and it’s my understanding they charge 100% of it in Q3 financials. Can’t see any orders being talked abou...

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

A few months ago I didn’t think DL was a player for the Max but I do now. Don’t think you’ll see an order until we get through the next 6 months unless Boeing comes with some insanely attractive price or a creative financing deal. There are plenty available and it’s a buyers market. It adds to the d...

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

The absolutely ridiculous predictions like never returning to 2019 air travel levels, especially for business travel are just absurd and laughable. Business travel may never return to the 2019 percentage of air travel, but it will surely surpass the absolute 2019 levels, likely with 5 years. Comple...

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

With just a little luck one year from now enough people will have been vaccinated so that the economy will be set to recover. That is the good news. The bad news is that we have several more months of economic disaster in multiple sectors of the economy. Economists should be able at the point to as...

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Has there been any case of an airline getting out of such a mountain of trouble and avoiding bankruptcy? Just recently. Norwegian - with a massive debt to equity conversion and lease returns Virgin Aus - with debt haircuts, lease returns and new investment from Bain Capital Norwegian is far from “o...

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Lots of people here seeming to be pleased at a bleaker future for the A330neo......I'll pretend to be surprised. . It's not being pleased, it's recognizing reality. Some of these orders were rubbish, but reality was suspended for a bit. Thank you! I’m reading this topic and don’t see anyone celebra...

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

I think in most places (save for Hong Kong) downward tends in passenger travel is probably over. This topic is about production of new aircraft and that trend still hasn’t hit bottom. How many new aircraft have been put into service in the last 5-10 years? Those planes will still be flying 20 years ...

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

It’s seems that every estimate or piece of news that comes out is getting revised down . I haven’t seen a single story or stake holder claim a more optimistic view vs previous claims. It’s almost like there is no recovery, it’s just a continued downward trend for manufacturers and their supply chain...

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

It seems like airlines are playing chicken with scheduling as much as A & B are with production. They continue to operate at 50-55% capacity when demand is in the 30% range. How long can they sustain flying 25% excess capacity and justify it? My guess is none of the airlines want to miss the ex...

Re: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff

It looks like everyone else here has lost interest in SAA. In an assessment dated 4th October it is advised that the South African government should pursue a relationship with Ethiopian to have any future for SAA. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-05/south-africa-told-to-look-to-ethio...

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

It seems like airlines are playing chicken with scheduling as much as A & B are with production. They continue to operate at 50-55% capacity when demand is in the 30% range. How long can they sustain flying 25% excess capacity and justify it? My guess is none of the airlines want to miss the exp...

Re: Cathay Pacific News and Discussion thread

I can’t see Cathay making it out of this mess without a major makeover or getting absorbed/combined/assimilated into or with another carrier. Management has been dancing around staffing for months and the pilot groups standing is about to be non-existent. From the article: “ The CEO admitted to a st...

Re: Demographics of GA aircraft owners

I’ve owned some sort of piper variant since the late 80’s. It started out as a partnership but I long ago became a sole owner. I could never have done it on my own. My wife has a lucrative career and always made more money. I was (before the recent VEOP) a commercial pilot and partnerships used to b...

Re: AA Passenger Tries to Jump Counter, Attack Employee After Being Told She Can't Board Flight Barefoot

Hilarious. She be Ms Bohemian

Re: DL parks A220s

Our union has a meeting tomorrow where we should find out more about our current tentative agreement for cost cutting... I received a text earlier saying the union narrowly approved the measure. Did you hear anything? It would be a big step but there’s still a huge hurdle with furloughs especially ...

Re: DL parks A220s

This was inevitable and quite frankly they need to be parking more metal and quit returning aircraft to service. We are still flying way over capacity and senior crew will not accept junior 220 drivers avoiding furlough when they are getting kicked to the curb or reduced hours. I don’t see many road...

Re: What is happening to Lufthansa?

I think you’re going to see that Lufthansa is the brightest bulb in the room and as the months go by will be hailed as visionaries. They seem to be looking past those holding out their hands for more government money and realizing their business needs to survive long term without constant government...

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

I would also point that we may be too western-centric in our analysis of the state of the airline industry. I just had a look at Air China traffic data. In August, their domestic RPKs were down 17% only vs Aug 2019 while the overall RPKs were down 49%. It's not as dramatic as the figures we see in ...

Re: Possibility of second Civil War in US and State Borders

I believe we are in something of a "cold civil war" right now. Both sides vehemently hate each other, draw weapons on each other at protests, and recently, have begun killing each other. The flames are fanned on by POTUS who sees the unrest as working to his electoral advantage. Here in m...

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

I would also point that we may be too western-centric in our analysis of the state of the airline industry. I just had a look at Air China traffic data. In August, their domestic RPKs were down 17% only vs Aug 2019 while the overall RPKs were down 49%. It's not as dramatic as the figures we see in ...

Rumour China Lying About COVID Numbers and Lockdowns

For those who may have picked up on a post I made in the aviation forum, here is the back story. My wife’s alumni group started a weekly zoom meeting to reconnect with old friends and exchange stories during the COVId pandemic. One of her alums teaches English in Beijing along with her daughter. I’v...