Search found 5611 matches

by SEPilot
Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is there a Business Case for a 787-9 regional
Replies: 96
Views: 13767

Re: Is there a Business Case for a 787-9 regional

Making a new variant is hugely expensive, and the manufacture has to recover the development and certification costs. To do that means that it must offer enough operating cost savings to the airlines to justify their paying a higher price, especially when buying the new variant instead of an existin...

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by SEPilot
Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:49 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Why was the 747-500 cancelled?
Replies: 40
Views: 15207

Re: Why was the 747-500 cancelled?

The economics of ULR change as fuel efficiency improves, and the practical economic maximum range increases. The first real ULR plane was the 747SP, and it sold poorly, because it simply used too much fuel and carried too few passengers. Then the 744 came out, and exceeded the range of the 747SP. Th...

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by SEPilot
Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:18 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: How come even after all the 777Fs coming off the line, MD-11Fs are still going strong?
Replies: 58
Views: 11880

Re: How come even after all the 777Fs coming off the line, MD-11Fs are still going strong?

Freight doesn’t care what it’s riding in. You can buy an awful lot of fuel and maintenance for what a shiny new 777F costs. Especially with the low utilization. The bottom line dictates; when the maintenance costs exceed what payments on a new plane would be they will be gone.

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by SEPilot
Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Just what made the DC-8 Super 73 freighter so popular?
Replies: 32
Views: 6888

Re: Just what made the DC-8 Super 73 freighter so popular?

Boeing decided against offering the CM56 conversion for civilian use on the 707 largely because they wanted to sell new 757s. The 707 could not be stretched like the DC-8 because the tail had insufficient clearance on rotation, which is why Boeing never did it. And once the stretched DC-8 was reengi...

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by SEPilot
Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Inching towards a collapse of the leasing industry
Replies: 56
Views: 15599

Re: Inching towards a collapse of the leasing industry

The A380s will join the 744 at the quad senior center. Lightsaber The A380 is something of a microcosim for the larger industry. On one had airlines cannot/will not pay the leasing costs of their current fleet. On the other hand there is little benefit to repossessing the aircraft, there is no onwa...

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by SEPilot
Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Inching towards a collapse of the leasing industry
Replies: 56
Views: 15599

Re: Inching towards a collapse of the leasing industry

The airline industry is one of the most capital intensive ones out there [...] This urban myth is widely spread -- not just here on a.net -- but it is completely wrong. Establishing an air traffic network is just dirt-cheap compared to developing a functional road or even railway infrastructure. Th...

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by SEPilot
Sun Jul 19, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Inching towards a collapse of the leasing industry
Replies: 56
Views: 15599

Re: Inching towards a collapse of the leasing industry

Another thought about lessors. Whenever there is an extremely expensive item that is in demand, there are going to be those who need it that cannot afford conventional financing. The result is that people come up with creative ways to get it into their hands. And leasing is a common way to do it; lo...

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by SEPilot
Sun Jul 19, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Inching towards a collapse of the leasing industry
Replies: 56
Views: 15599

Re: Inching towards a collapse of the leasing industry

The airline industry is one of the most capital intensive ones out there with a relatively poor rate of return and also one of the riskiest. There are so many things that can disrupt it. War, economic difficulties, disease, volcanic eruptions, bad weather, and so many other things can disrupt air tr...

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by SEPilot
Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 747-8I Fleet Tracking Thread 2020
Replies: 36
Views: 12921

Re: Boeing 747-8I Fleet Tracking Thread 2020

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N828BA

That is what I thought, but it seemed to be left out of the previous discussion.
-->

VCVSpotter wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
What about the LH NTU 748i?


N828BA, stored at VCV, owned by Boeing, Lufthansa NTU.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N828BA

That is what I thought, but it seemed to be left out of the previous discussion.

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by SEPilot
Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:40 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 747-8I Fleet Tracking Thread 2020
Replies: 36
Views: 12921

Re: Boeing 747-8I Fleet Tracking Thread 2020

What about the LH NTU 748i?

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by SEPilot
Wed Jul 15, 2020 7:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future Heavy Freight Aircraft (777X)?
Replies: 64
Views: 9548

Re: Future Heavy Freight Aircraft (777X)?

Unless Russia is successful in building their proposed An-124 replacement, the "Slon" or "Elephant" which is supposed to have a payload of 180 t and use four of the PD35 engines intended for the CR929. I won’t hold my breath. The same laws of supply and demand work in Russia as ...

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by SEPilot
Wed Jul 15, 2020 12:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future Heavy Freight Aircraft (777X)?
Replies: 64
Views: 9548

Re: Future Heavy Freight Aircraft (777X)?

There has never been a civilian freighter designed as such. The reason is simple; the only time anything HAS to be shipped by air is disaster/emergency relief. And then the military usually steps in (which DOES have purpose built freighters, none of which except the AN-124 and AN-225 have found thei...

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by SEPilot
Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787
Replies: 174
Views: 33965

Re: Emirates: 777X further delayed until 2022, considering to convert more orders to 787

People act that way because they seek to transfer the A380 failure to the 777X. Never mind that the 777X is the significant update to the 77W (the aircraft that vanquished the A380), has somewhat fewer seats....... Perhaps another flaw in the thinking is the somewhat fewer seats than the A380. When...

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by SEPilot
Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020
Replies: 1448
Views: 277582

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020

Well if they are getting conversions to the 787, should Boeing be reducing production of the 787 by the numbers they have proposed, someone like EK would need new a/c sooner rather than later if they are involved in a pivot to smaller frames. Nobody is going to want aircraft soon. Every single airl...

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by SEPilot
Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020
Replies: 1448
Views: 277582

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020

Today’s flight is testing the autoland system If autoland testing is being done, it indicates the high lift system has been finalized. Is this for the wings? Why does autoland indicate that? I’m not very good on the technicals! The autoland system performance is going to be closely linked to the hi...

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by SEPilot
Thu Jul 09, 2020 12:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 777x All Composite Fuselage Possibility?
Replies: 11
Views: 2977

Re: 777x All Composite Fuselage Possibility?

It would be a new design, and seeing as how the future of the 777x is rather cloudy at best the business case for it resembles that of erecting the world’s largest ice machine in Prudhoe Bay. There aren’t going to be any new large aircraft coming out of either manufacturer for quite a while. Both ar...

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by SEPilot
Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747
Replies: 378
Views: 58871

Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

The 747 line has been kept alive in part to keep on the good side of the US Government for military contracts. The last 747's will be the VC-25's for Presidential use that mandate a 4 engine aircraft. I am quite sure the 747 line, something I saw in 2004 and very slow then, only freighters for non-...

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by SEPilot
Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 777 Retirement/Scrapping Thread - 2020
Replies: 106
Views: 24396

Re: 777 Retirement/Scrapping Thread - 2020

We have known for years that there would be a fairly large number of fairly young 77Ws coming off lease in the next few years, but the prospects were good (pre COVID) that they would find new operators. They are not as efficient as the 787s and A350s now coming off the assembly lines, but are still ...

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by SEPilot
Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 747-8I Fleet Tracking Thread 2020
Replies: 36
Views: 12921

Re: Boeing 747-8I Fleet Tracking Thread 2020

Airfleets.net suggest that the plane is stored and was last registered to Prince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz. He passed away just before delivery and NTU by Saudis. Registration Delivery date Airline HZ-HMS1 09/07/2012 Prince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz The plane was ferried to Switzerland for customizing after ...

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by SEPilot
Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747
Replies: 378
Views: 58871

Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

What with the extreme difficulty that the entire aviation industry is likely to face in the next few years it makes little sense for Boeing to devote any resources at all to preserving production capability for a model for which there is no guarantee that there ever will be enough demand for product...

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by SEPilot
Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:13 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: 787-9 Longest Route
Replies: 14
Views: 1820

Re: 787-9 Longest Route

What is the longest regularly scheduled 789 flight?

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by SEPilot
Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 747-8I Fleet Tracking Thread 2020
Replies: 36
Views: 12921

Re: Boeing 747-8I Fleet Tracking Thread 2020

Any idea who’s Jumbo is this mentioned in the article? https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-business-jet-747-8i-private-photos-interior-2020-3 What a pretty business jet. Must be nice to have such a means. Was this the one? Ordered by/for Saudis but not taken up and presumably ended with intended...

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by SEPilot
Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022
Replies: 103
Views: 17873

Re: Qatar CEO: no new Airbus or Boeing deliveries until 2022

The entire airline business is in for a very, very hard time for the foreseeable future; how long, nobody knows. It is an industry with intense competition and slim margins even in good times. Not all players are going to survive. Both Airbus and Boeing will out of necessity; the world cannot accept...

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by SEPilot
Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why doesn't the AN225 have passenger service?
Replies: 46
Views: 9023

Re: Why doesn't the AN225 have passenger service?

The competition among airliners is brutal, with efficiency being the most important metric. But there also is a size limit, as Airbus found out to their detriment. Even when the A380 was the most efficient plane available, few airlines wanted it. And even when the 787 and A350 were flying the A350 c...

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by SEPilot
Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: BA fleet parking, will retire 747 fleet
Replies: 284
Views: 75559

Re: Updated: BA fleet parking, at 40+ including 747s, A380s

Nobody knows at this point when, and by how much, international air travel will recover. So smart airline executives are going to keep as many options open as possible. The other unknown variable is where oil prices will be when the recovery happens. But due to the massive losses that the airlines a...

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by SEPilot
Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q2 2020
Replies: 607
Views: 57377

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q2 2020

One of my life maxims is that government, by its very nature, is fundamentally incapable of competence. And it certainly applies here. That is perhaps a bit of a one sided view into this issue. Common among some folks out there, very common in US for instance. But the problem is that many organisat...

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by SEPilot
Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet
Replies: 504
Views: 91186

Re: Emirates Retires First A380

I still wonder why no airline has managed to make the A380 work as a low-cost cattle class plane? An all-economy seating A380 can host 853 passengers. Around $30 per km in fuel. ATH to SIN is about 5621km, making fuel costs around $168630. Divided by 853 it would mean $197 as a minimum ticket price...

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by SEPilot
Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q2 2020
Replies: 607
Views: 57377

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q2 2020

Here’s the problem with shifting the certification authority to the FAA from Boeing. The FAA is a government organization, which by definition is heavily influenced by politics. Its director and top personnel are appointed by politicians, not by people with any aeronautical knowledge. The lower leve...

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by SEPilot
Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747
Replies: 378
Views: 58871

Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

The important thing is that the last 748 comes off the line after the last 380, because some self professed expert made me a thousand to one bet three years ago that couldn't possibly happen. It is shocking but likely to become true, if just an a.net member (verses in real life) he will probably di...

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by SEPilot
Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: First electrical airplane in the world certified !
Replies: 53
Views: 7029

Re: First electrical airplane in the world certified !

Until someone develops a battery with comparable energy density to jet fuel commercial electric planes are going nowhere. And even equal energy density will not do the trick; conventionally fueled aircraft get lighter as they burn fuel, but electric ones do not. On top of that electric planes are on...

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by SEPilot
Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Are there any jet alternatives to the 737-200C for gravel operations?
Replies: 100
Views: 17588

Re: There's any jet alternatives for the 737-200C for gravel operations?

The problem with the 732s is that they are getting scarce, and parts support is dwindling rapidly. That is going to be the same with any old plane, like the MD-80, the 727, and the BAE146. What is needed for a long term solution is a plane currently or recently produced that will do the job. Otherwi...

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by SEPilot
Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end
Replies: 146
Views: 37722

Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

A further point about EVA. They seem to have been simplifying their fleet in recent years, and they are small enough that having a mixed fleet is a distinct liability. They have a substantial A330 fleet that is still young, but they have bought the 787 and it will presumably replace the A330s when t...

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by SEPilot
Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end
Replies: 146
Views: 37722

Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Smart managers often buck conventional wisdom. That conventional wisdom today is that air travel will take a long time to recover and large widebodies are white elephants to be shunned. But that may not be the case. An airline manager who believes this and has access to financing would be in a posit...

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by SEPilot
Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS
Replies: 263
Views: 50579

Re: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS

That GECAS model is a great looking bird. What does this do to the 748F line. I wonder That's basically dead anyway. Really? It is still getting orders and making deliveries to operators that keep ordering more. It is the only freighter in its class. This converted 77W is still not what the 748F is...

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by SEPilot
Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end
Replies: 146
Views: 37722

Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

It is not PR. They have been going Airbus very heavily, and they are not large enough to benefit from having a Boeing subfleet. Besides, PR is currently struggling under heavy losses and hinting of possible further layoffs, engine deals renegotiation and aircraft lease returns..... Won't be surpris...

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by SEPilot
Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why did Pan Am disappear?
Replies: 76
Views: 9746

Re: Why did Pan Am dissapeared?

Pan Am failed primarily because it was built by political deals and favoritism by Juan Trippe. In the process he made many friends and enemies in high places. After he retired in 1968 his friends forgot about Pan Am but his enemies didn’t. That is why Pan Am never received a single break during the ...

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by SEPilot
Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end
Replies: 146
Views: 37722

Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Right now such a deal would heavily rely on politics. So I agree it's probably EVA because of what's going on in the south Chinese seas. For what is happening in the South China sea, I see that it is more reasonable for that unknown customer being ASEAN carriers such as Phillipine Airlines, Vietnam...

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by SEPilot
Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:05 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: IAI Launches 777-300ER converted freighters with GECAS
Replies: 263
Views: 50579

Re: Has Boeing hurt the 777 by not having a BCF option?

Also to be considered is the reason there has been no P2F conversion for the 777; namely, the composite floor beams. If they had been aluminum and strong enough for normal freight, it would have raised the empty weight of the aircraft and caused it to either lose payload or range. The aggregate cos...

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by SEPilot
Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: LEAP engines on 737 and A320 fall way short of on-wing targets
Replies: 42
Views: 11234

Re: LEAP engines on 737 and A320 fall way short of on-wing targets

It is simple physics. Increased efficiency is achieved largely through higher temperatures and pressures. This puts a lot more stress on the materials. They are using new materials that are supposed to better withstand the higher stresses, but there is a learning curve, and as they are pushing thing...

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by SEPilot
Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of the MD-80
Replies: 39
Views: 5766

Re: Future of the MD-80

One should look at the 727 retirement. However, FedEx supporting a large fleet sustained that market. I posted in the aircraft lease/values thread how values have dropped 15% for more modern narrowbodies. It is worth upgrading, in my opinion, just for the variable cost savings. https://www.airliner...

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by SEPilot
Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747
Replies: 378
Views: 58871

Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

It has been apparent for a decade that the 748 was at the end of its production. If the nose door is so vital, where were the orders 3 to 4 years ago. Cargolux, Atlas and Volga-Dnepr have not ordered a dozen frames together in the last years. If something is so vital, but the freighters never inves...

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by SEPilot
Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?
Replies: 199
Views: 24730

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

The only direct competitor the A330 had was the 767-400 which was a bit of a crippled design and otherwise the A340. The A330 did not have much for competitors back then. Now it competes directly with the 787. I would say that because of this the 330N won’t sell with quite the success the previous ...

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by SEPilot
Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of the MD-80
Replies: 39
Views: 5766

Re: Future of the MD-80

There are many vital parts that are made by independent suppliers, not Boeing. They will not be making any more. Once stocks are gone the only source will be scrapyards. The handwriting is on the wall.

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by SEPilot
Sun May 31, 2020 2:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?
Replies: 199
Views: 24730

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

To evaluate the future of the A330NEO you have to compare it to the 787. In what way is it preferable? Is it cheaper to build? From what I have read, no. Does it have better operating economics? No. Does it require less maintenance? No. Does it have better range/payload? No. I do not know of any ar...

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by SEPilot
Fri May 29, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?
Replies: 199
Views: 24730

Re: Will the A330neo ever become as successful as its predecessors?

To evaluate the future of the A330NEO you have to compare it to the 787. In what way is it preferable? Is it cheaper to build? From what I have read, no. Does it have better operating economics? No. Does it require less maintenance? No. Does it have better range/payload? No. I do not know of any are...

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by SEPilot
Fri May 29, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747
Replies: 378
Views: 58871

Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

Ziyulu wrote:
I now wish the 787 would not have been invented and more airlines would order the 748.

It wasn’t the 787 that killed the 748, it was the 77W.

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by SEPilot
Fri May 29, 2020 2:06 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Is there a place for a third OEM player now?
Replies: 14
Views: 1234

Re: Is there a place for a third player now?

The financial backing necessary to start a new large airframe manufacturing operation from scratch is staggering beyond comprehension. The requirement for experienced and knowledgeable people is also beyond comprehension. You cannot just hire a bunch of people off the street and have them design an...

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by SEPilot
Wed May 27, 2020 9:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747
Replies: 378
Views: 58871

Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

So, out of curiosity, would it be possible to modify a 777F to have a tail that swings open like the 747 used for 787 parts? This would solve the problem for larger pallets that couldn't fit through a side door. Maybe there isn't enough clearance for that to happen or there is some other structural...

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by SEPilot
Wed May 27, 2020 5:38 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Is there a place for a third OEM player now?
Replies: 14
Views: 1234

Re: Is there a place for a third player now?

The financial backing necessary to start a new large airframe manufacturing operation from scratch is staggering beyond comprehension. The requirement for experienced and knowledgeable people is also beyond comprehension. You cannot just hire a bunch of people off the street and have them design and...

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by SEPilot
Wed May 27, 2020 5:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747
Replies: 378
Views: 58871

Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

The fact that Boeing has not answered the letter or publicly announced the end says to me that they don’t know what to say, and hence have not made a decision. Which also says to me that they want to wait a bit and see where the market, especially for freighters, goes. They don’t have to make a deci...

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