Search found 2900 matches

by Matt6461
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA S18 Departures By Hub And Aircraft Type
Replies: 76
Views: 13784

Re: UA S18 Departures By Hub And Aircraft Type

CHI traffic is split across UA/AA/MDW. Do you think Chicagoans want the substantially meaningless title of megahub (it might bring a few more destinations) or PRICE COMPETITION? Any settlement that enabled a UA megahub at ORD could - and for regulatory purposes should - require a substantial gate a...

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by Matt6461
Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA S18 Departures By Hub And Aircraft Type
Replies: 76
Views: 13784

Re: UA S18 Departures By Hub And Aircraft Type

As a born and raised suburban Chicagoan now living in Nashville, it is pretty pathetic that Chicago has such low % of mainline flights. One of UA's biggest problems is they don't have a ATL or DFW style hub as their flagship megahub. CHI traffic is split across UA/AA/MDW. Do you think Chicagoans wa...

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by Matt6461
Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 217
Views: 29734

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

For 12 years here on a.net my issue with the 380 was always the economics of its size (and the chaos that was the engineering on the program). I was ridiculed, moderated to hell and back, etc My sympathy... I can't imagine how frustrating A380 discussions here were before we had actual market failu...

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by Matt6461
Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 217
Views: 29734

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

You said you had taken one course, undergrad wasn't it ? No. But I find this part of our discussion distasteful and irrelevant; I'm embarrassed to have engaged in it. Only our arguments matter. Put forward something - anything - composed of actual game theory instead of mysticism about Asian cultur...

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by Matt6461
Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 217
Views: 29734

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

don't trust Skytrax much, but I do notice they agree on no US3 in the top 10 or top 20 even. Strange for 3 major airlines, isn't it ? It is hard to take seriously somebody who claims to be an economist yet shares this point publicly. Something I shouldn't have to point out to a 15yo economics stude...

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by Matt6461
Sat Aug 04, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 217
Views: 29734

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

but I do know you never majored in Economics or Game Theory I actually did major in economics and at (biased opinion of course) the best economics school in the world. In graduate and undergraduate programs I've worked with Nobel-winning economists, including on game theory. But let's leave the per...

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by Matt6461
Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 217
Views: 29734

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

Add to that the economic downturn in 2001 ...and 2008, right? Mark 1 of a good business case: "So long as business cycles are no longer a thing, our product will do well." the tech revolution embodied by the 787 & A350 Mark 2 of a good business case: "So long as entirely foreseea...

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by Matt6461
Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA S18 Departures By Hub And Aircraft Type
Replies: 76
Views: 13784

Re: UA S18 Departures By Hub And Aircraft Type

Thanks for putting this together, just saw it via a bump to the DL thread. As a Chicagoan, the most striking fact is that ORD's AA and UA ops have the lowest percentage of mainline of any the US3's full-service hubs (i.e. longhaul hubs so not including LGA and DCA). From a pure demographic perspecti...

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by Matt6461
Sat Jul 28, 2018 10:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 217
Views: 29734

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

Thanks. A good rule of thumb is 5ft3 bag volume per pax, meaning ~27 pax' bags per LD3. With 38 LD3, A380 can hold bags for ~1,000 pax. There's a broader question about cargo capacity to which your question alludes. It's unavoidable that a 2-decker will have lower belly capacity per pax than a sing...

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by Matt6461
Sat Jul 28, 2018 10:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Could Boeing further stretch the 787 above -10?
Replies: 27
Views: 5783

Re: Could Boeing further stretch the 787 above -10?

IMO the 787-11 happens later next decade when the whole family is reengineed with Ultrfan-gen turbines.

Each family member will bump up in range, -11 will take over ~ the current -10's range profile.

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by Matt6461
Sat Jul 28, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 217
Views: 29734

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

Airbus executives in charge of the program have literally said the opposite. I've provided the quotes so many times that I won't bother in this instance - unless someone amenable to facts requests it. Matt, following your input with the greatest enjoyment for a long long time. Congratulations! Howe...

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by Matt6461
Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:58 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: What's next in airliner wing design?
Replies: 28
Views: 3048

Re: What's next in airliner wing design?

I'm not familiar with the terms "Di delta" and "Dp delta" and I could not find definitions for them using a web search, so I was unable to do the math. Sorry I somehow missed your reply earlier. Di is lift-induced drag. Di is proportional to, among other things, lift^2 (=weight ...

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by Matt6461
Sat Jul 28, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 217
Views: 29734

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

The wing is not overbuilt for the A389. Airbus executives in charge of the program have literally said the opposite. I've provided the quotes so many times that I won't bother in this instance - unless someone amenable to facts requests it. Matt, following your input with the greatest enjoyment for...

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by Matt6461
Sat Jul 28, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: What's next in airliner wing design?
Replies: 28
Views: 3048

Re: What's next in airliner wing design?

Compare that to a monoplane with identical wing area, or identical aspect ratio, and you will see that the biplane has more drag either way. The critical phrase is "with identical wing area or aspect ratio." Strut-bracing allows much higher AR at equal weight. The tradeoff is exactly para...

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by Matt6461
Sat Jul 28, 2018 4:12 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Ramp Rash on 787 and A350
Replies: 18
Views: 5553

Re: Ramp Rash on 787 and A350

So am I right in thinking this relates to the shear vs. Tension/compression strength per unit of aluminum vs. CFRP? does anyone have the figures for the various moduli?

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by Matt6461
Sat Jul 28, 2018 3:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 217
Views: 29734

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

Picture this. Take an A380. Replace 4 Trent 900 engines by 2 Trent XXL ultrafan whatever with say 700kN of thrust each. Hey relax, it's just 25% more than than a GE90, Remove 2 pylons and engine associated systems. Remove some 80 tons of MTOW, some through lower fuel burn, some through lighter OEW,...

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by Matt6461
Fri Jul 27, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: What's next in airliner wing design?
Replies: 28
Views: 3048

Re: What's next in airliner wing design?

TSS wrote:
Why have both folding wingtips to increase span and drag-inducing struts


Do the math. Di delta from 20% more span is ~30%; Dp delta is ~5% if struts are ~15% of wing area.

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by Matt6461
Fri Jul 27, 2018 7:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 217
Views: 29734

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

[A388] has the GLOBAL SHAPE AND DIMENSIONS ready for an A389. Structurally, almost every part would be thicker and heavier than the current wing. Calm down - nobody said A388's wing also has sufficient reinforcement for the A389's increased bending moments. And as you should know, I've pointed out ...

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by Matt6461
Fri Jul 27, 2018 3:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 217
Views: 29734

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

waterbomber wrote:
The wing is not overbuilt for the A389.


Airbus executives in charge of the program have literally said the opposite. I've provided the quotes so many times that I won't bother in this instance - unless someone amenable to facts requests it.

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by Matt6461
Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 217
Views: 29734

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

That is not the only solution. You can also make the aircraft less capable. Which, with the benefit of hindsight, is probably what Airbus should have done. The A380 has fantastic payload-range and take off performance...which few airlines actually really need. On top of that Airbus wanted to mainta...

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by Matt6461
Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 217
Views: 29734

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

I guess your point is that it's short and stubby so it can fit into the box and hold enough pax, which (from an aerodynamic / engineering standpoint) is NOT how you want to build an aircraft :lol: . I'll completely agree with you, but the ONLY solution to that problem revolves around making the pla...

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by Matt6461
Mon Jul 23, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 217
Views: 29734

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

Because this something of a meta-thread, I'll add a somewhat meta point... "Both sides will agree" that the A380 has launched more stupid remarks here and in other media than maybe any program in history. Both sides have said dumb things but only the A380's supporters have been unambiguous...

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by Matt6461
Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 217
Views: 29734

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

Slot congestion also sells smaller aircraft. If passengers bypass hubs by going directly to secondary airports, it does more to reduce congestion than large aircraft world. This effect is minimal if not illusory. Longhaul substitution of AAA-CCC for AAA-BBB-CCC only decreases aircraft movements if ...

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by Matt6461
Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: What's next in airliner wing design?
Replies: 28
Views: 3048

Re: What's next in airliner wing design?

There's a reason braced wings have never been used in transonic airliners, or even fast turboprops. The extra drag by far outweigh any weight savings. With continuing materials improvement from composites, cantilevered wings are only becoming lighter, increasing their advantage. As previous posters...

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by Matt6461
Sun Jul 22, 2018 10:01 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: What's next in airliner wing design?
Replies: 28
Views: 3048

Re: What's next in airliner wing design?

...and I'll throw my hat in the ring for predicting strut/truss-braced wings as a next step-change in wing design. They've been used in low-speed wings for a century but their potential for modern airliners seems enormous within the next 20 years or sooner.

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by Matt6461
Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: What's next in airliner wing design?
Replies: 28
Views: 3048

Re: What's next in airliner wing design?

The A350 features variable camber, i. e. the flaps extend or retract slightly in cruise depending on speed, altitude and weight. I don't know if other aircraft have introduced that yet but the 797 probably will. I also expect wing to move towards a more laminar design, as discussed in the A340 lami...

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by Matt6461
Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 217
Views: 29734

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

I see a perfect test of your thesis: is the A380 preferred on the world's busiest longhaul route, or do the benefits of frequency remain dominant? A380 fails that test; there are none on LON-NYC. Unfortunately Matt, you left yourself open to this caveat. The BA terminal at JFK cannot handle the A38...

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by Matt6461
Sat Jul 21, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 217
Views: 29734

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

From where I sit the future for the A380 revolves around high density city pairs where business travel demands a minimum level of capacity at the right time of day. Singapore Airline schedule A380 flights out of Sydney to meet underlying peak demand business travel to Singapore. For other times of ...

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by Matt6461
Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Aircraft Values and Lease Pricing - Summer 2018
Replies: 48
Views: 20344

Re: Aircraft Values and Lease Pricing - Summer 2018

Any data on NEO/MAX?

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by Matt6461
Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Hi Fly unveil A380 Coral Reef livery
Replies: 56
Views: 14008

Re: Hi Fly unveil A380 Coral Reef livery

BBC Business News mentioned that Airbus wouldn't have an A380 at Farnborough this year and asked if it was a sign they'd given up trying to sell it ? Between this and ANA the whale is coming into its own in at least aesthetics. Maybe there's a subliminal message in it...like "Save the Whale &q...

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by Matt6461
Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 217
Views: 29734

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

To be competitive versus the 779, the A380 needs more of a PIP than the plane that outsold it received: 1. CFRP wing 2. Stretch (the #1 issue of the A380 is it isn't long enough to cover the weight of two staircases and an elevator). 3. New engines I'm a big fan of a new CFRP wing but I'm wondering...

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by Matt6461
Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: AirAsia X orders 34 more A330neo
Replies: 164
Views: 30902

Re: Air Asia to order more Airbus aircraft?

Airbus' ability to bundle A321 with A330 will probably result in keeping this deal away from Boeing. No A321 deal announced, so it looks like the A339 has won the order fair and square on its own merits. Possible but not necessarily. Airbus was highly motivated to seal this deal - losing it would h...

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by Matt6461
Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:34 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Volga-Dnepr Group Purchases 5 747-8F, commits to 29 777F's
Replies: 53
Views: 8833

Re: Volga-Dnepr Group Purchases 5 747-8F, commits to 29 777F's

Yet, months after that article, LH bought additional 777Fs to help begin replacing their MD-11Fs. Nothing about that purchase is inconsistent with a ~2025 expectation/desire for 778F EIS. I'm not sure you're clear on the scope of my argument. Re the 778F, I'm simply raising the possibility that wor...

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by Matt6461
Thu Jul 19, 2018 2:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Volga-Dnepr Group Purchases 5 747-8F, commits to 29 777F's
Replies: 53
Views: 8833

Re: Volga-Dnepr Group Purchases 5 747-8F, commits to 29 777F's

That doesn't mean the market is willing to pay the premium that Boeing would charge You can reasonably predict willingness to pay by ability to save. Pay ~$2mn more in leasing to save at least $4mn in gas? Show me a carrier who wouldn't make that deal. Also, Boeing does have limited engineering res...

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by Matt6461
Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Volga-Dnepr Group Purchases 5 747-8F, commits to 29 777F's
Replies: 53
Views: 8833

Re: Volga-Dnepr Group Purchases 5 747-8F, commits to 29 777F's

https://airlinerwatch.com/lufthansa-car ... n-of-777x/
-->

Lufthansa's head of cargo seems to agree with my general timeline:

Gerber expects Boeing to reveal a cargo version of the 777X in five to six years.


https://airlinerwatch.com/lufthansa-car ... n-of-777x/

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by Matt6461
Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:31 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Volga-Dnepr Group Purchases 5 747-8F, commits to 29 777F's
Replies: 53
Views: 8833

Re: Volga-Dnepr Group Purchases 5 747-8F, commits to 29 777F's

The 747-8F and 777F address different parts of the market so it may be that RFPs are not so predatory between them. The 777F makes a fantastic 747-200F and MD-11F replacement and a very decent lower gross weight 747-400F replacement. This leaves the 747-8F to handle the high-gross weight 747-400 an...

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by Matt6461
Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will point-to-point hurt or help hubs with large O&D traffic?
Replies: 25
Views: 2802

Re: Will point-to-point hurt or help hubs with large O&D traffic?

The p2p versus hub debate is maybe the stupidest all-time debate on A.net. All you have to realize is that "point" includes "hub." Yes pretty much all longhaul requires a hub for at least one end but that is entirely consistent with p2p options proliferating. There are simply mor...

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by Matt6461
Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Volga-Dnepr Group Purchases 5 747-8F, commits to 29 777F's
Replies: 53
Views: 8833

Re: Volga-Dnepr Group Purchases 5 747-8F, commits to 29 777F's

A-neters and enthusiasts like new shiny metal, air cargo companies want reasonable cost and strong reliability.. the 778F for now only fits the shiny metal wet dream. On the other side Boeing has looked at and planned for a successor plane to the 777F when the reliability and markets are right. Thi...

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by Matt6461
Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Volga-Dnepr Group Purchases 5 747-8F, commits to 29 777F's
Replies: 53
Views: 8833

Re: Volga-Dnepr Group Purchases 5 747-8F, commits to 29 777F's

Didn’t the 748 cost $5 bil? Are they going to pay that back even if they get another 100 orders? Boeing has already written-down just under $3.5 billion and the last one in June of 2016 was to cover the Forward Loss position of the program so the program itself should now be fully amortized in term...

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by Matt6461
Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Hi Fly unveil A380 Coral Reef livery
Replies: 56
Views: 14008

Re: Hi Fly unveil A380 Coral Reef livery

I love how great a canvas that tall fuselage is for airport art. Between this and ANA the whale is coming into its own in at least aesthetics.

Only criticism is that the fore section, which dominates view at the gate, is still plain. Would have been better to invert that choice.

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by Matt6461
Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: AirAsia X orders 34 more A330neo
Replies: 164
Views: 30902

Re: Air Asia to order more Airbus aircraft?

This is by far the most interesting sales campaign going, IMO. We've seen reports citing "insiders" that Boeing had lost and a deal would be announced at FIA, but it appears still to be in play. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airasia-strategy/airasias-fernandes-undecided-on-plane-order...

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by Matt6461
Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Boeing Order Thread
Replies: 189
Views: 83345

Re: Farnborough Air Show 2018 - Boeing Order Thread

https://twitter.com/avgeekjames/status/ ... 46055?s=21


Boeing says "up to ten." Isn't this just confirmation of the previously announced Vistara order that included options? https://twitter.com/BoeingAirplanes/sta ... 2752672769
-->

qf789 wrote:


Boeing says "up to ten." Isn't this just confirmation of the previously announced Vistara order that included options? https://twitter.com/BoeingAirplanes/sta ... 2752672769

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by Matt6461
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta not a fan of second airport in Atlanta
Replies: 121
Views: 12953

Re: Delta not a fan of second airport in Atlanta

Similar threads:

"King George III not a fan of American independence"

"Slave owner opposes abolition"

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by Matt6461
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 3491
Views: 429793

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

Looks like Boeing still faces some interesting challenges... https://leehamnews.com/2018/07/16/farnborough-boeing-reconsiders-metal-fuselage-for-nma-as-cost-remains-major-challenge/ ......and...... "GE still unconvinced about demand for 797" https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-ae...

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by Matt6461
Mon Jul 16, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 3491
Views: 429793

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

seabosdca wrote:
I shouldn't even respond


Go with your gut.

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by Matt6461
Mon Jul 16, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 3491
Views: 429793

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

It means on the other side for the Business case: The Business case is so weak for the plane itself (in the traditional way) that Boeing will not be able to make money from just selling it, like they do with the 737/ 777 and the 787 (now). Your inference about the strength of the business case foll...

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by Matt6461
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 3491
Views: 429793

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

flyingclrs727 wrote:
The 737 shares the same fuselage cross-section as the front half of the 727 plus systems, and engines.


Is this still true of the NG/MAX? Are they really using '60's systems still? How much improved (if at all)?

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by Matt6461
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:31 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters: Airbus is studying A321XLR with extended range over LR
Replies: 470
Views: 74128

Re: Reuters: Airbus is studying A321XLR with extended range over LR

Article below is mostly about Brexit and the potential of Airbus moving production away from the UK. However, towards the end there is interesting discussion that Airbus are working on a carbon fibre folding wing for a next gen A320. Looks like they want the aero improvement but to still fit into t...

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by Matt6461
Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 3491
Views: 429793

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

BREECH wrote:
Boeing has NOTHING to offer to them


I read this guy's post and was like, "WTF?"
Then I read his signature and it all made sense.
It's like if crazy people on the street always wore signs saying, "I'm crazy, just ignore me."

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by Matt6461
Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:26 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A220 Impact on the A319 and A320?
Replies: 84
Views: 19200

Re: A220 Impact on the A319 and A320?

With the upcoming Pratt PW1100G low turbine PIP, we add so much capability and cost reduction to the A321 that cost per seat, per Indigo claims, is 15% less than the A320NEO. In other words, pay for a mere 10 seats for 44 more seats. The new seats are too cheap not to take the opportunity a la JetB...

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