Search found 280 matches

by ShinyAndChrome
Thu May 14, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UPS Signs 5 Year Lease To Add Gary Airport To Its Cargo Network
Replies: 15
Views: 3405

Re: UPS Signs 5 Year Lease To Add Gary Airport To Its Cargo Network

getting cans to and from ORD is probably a nightmare during the morning and evening due to traffic. This addition to GYY also surprises me because of the short distance to another UPS hub - RFD. I had similar thoughts. The article didn't mention anything about Rockford but are there any capacity is...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu May 14, 2020 6:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall
Replies: 176
Views: 23843

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Two famous quotes from Robert Crandell, former President and Chairman of American Airlines. I've never invested in any airline. I'm an airline manager. I don't invest in airlines. And I always said to the employees of American, 'This is not an appropriate investment. It's a great place to work and ...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu May 14, 2020 3:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall
Replies: 176
Views: 23843

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

No, it doesn’t, Chapter 11 has specific requirements for labor relations and when the contract can be abrogated. To wit, negotiations followed by offers presented to the judge, company has to show abrogation is necessary for the estate’s survival. It just doesn’t “go out the window”. In this situat...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu May 14, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,
Replies: 308
Views: 41670

Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

I don't get the airline bailouts. That's all a political charade, make-believe stuff to me. I only understand measuring the customer demand and sizing the operation to serve it. Given the fragility of airline capital structures, they were destined to go bankrupt in a major downturn, and a whopper a...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Wed May 06, 2020 7:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results
Replies: 64
Views: 7458

Re: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results

How did a thread about a quarterly report stating that AS has the reserves to survive more then a year without an improvement in the present situation shift so quickly to merger assumptions? Are people thinking that AS is daft enougufh to be wanting to buy? To be fair, it's not like it takes that m...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Tue May 05, 2020 6:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results
Replies: 64
Views: 7458

Re: Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q1 2020 financial results

How did a thread about a quarterly report stating that AS has the reserves to survive more then a year without an improvement in the present situation shift so quickly to merger assumptions? Are people thinking that AS is daft enougufh to be wanting to buy? To be fair, it's not like it takes that m...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:52 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Airlines projects $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid
Replies: 92
Views: 19409

Re: United Airlines posts $2.1 billion pretax loss as coronavirus roils business, seeks more federal aid

One of the nations big 4 DL/UA/AA/WN will likely go out of business in the next 12 months. If this mess goes on for say three years, all bets are off. Within the next year, there's still the political appetite to prevent major airline bankruptcies let alone liquidations. There are too many politica...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:29 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Spirit Airlines in this crisis
Replies: 82
Views: 21777

Re: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) is worth a look during market crisis, despite risks

2019 was a year of revival when the company expanded the fleet, launched new services and initiated steps to achieve operational efficiency. Despite heavy capital spending, Spirit ended the year with a decent cash balance of $1.1 billion, which makes it better positioned to deal with the crisis tha...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Norwegian News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 204
Views: 53243

Re: Norwegian Puts 4 Subsidiaries Into Bankruptcy

I wonder how successful any attempt at a debt-to-equity swap would be. I was under the impression that at least compared to the US, creditors in Europe tend to get a good deal more legal protection under bankruptcy. Would any of them have any incentive to take up that offer?

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue, Spirit bailout waiver requests denied
Replies: 2
Views: 1679

Re: JetBlue, Spirit bailout waiver requests denied

B6 has already accepted the grants, so there's not a lot they can do except try applying again I suppose. NK will be interesting to watch in terms of what they decide since they and Frontier are the likeliest to walk away if they can't get exemptions.

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sat Apr 18, 2020 10:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air New Zealand Plans To Axe All Boeing 777 Crew
Replies: 66
Views: 15378

Re: Air New Zealand Plans To Axe All Boeing 777 Crew

Hopefully discourages them? The much salivated over pilot 'shortage' never really materialized. And that was in the best of times. The truth is that aviation in general is a far more elastic market than we wanted to believe. And nowhere near as indispensable. Sorry for the double negative. Part of ...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sat Apr 18, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air New Zealand Plans To Axe All Boeing 777 Crew
Replies: 66
Views: 15378

Re: Air New Zealand Plans To Axe All Boeing 777 Crew

Truthfully, I wonder what this whole situation will do to any kids around the world graduating from high school or college in the next few years who was thinking about going into aviation. Hopefully discourages them? The much salivated over pilot 'shortage' never really materialized. And that was i...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air New Zealand Plans To Axe All Boeing 777 Crew
Replies: 66
Views: 15378

Re: Air New Zealand Plans To Axe All Boeing 777 Crew

I hope these crews will have access to some form of severance or at least government benefits. The wording of the article makes this seem like something permanent rather than a furlough. Truthfully, I wonder what this whole situation will do to any kids around the world graduating from high school o...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 2164
Views: 380947

Re: Delta plans to emerge a

You're not wrong, but one thing you've left out is arguably the most important holding of any airline right now given the cash crunch: unencumbered assets. It's not at all a stretch to say that without share buybacks, all airlines would be far more flush with unencumbered assets be those aircraft o...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:29 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 2164
Views: 380947

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

I don't see MSP and DTW both surviving as hubs after this is over. One is going to have to go unless they cut MSP-East Coast and reduce services to the South East in favor of DTW. Services DTW and W/SW would go too. Again with this website's perennial obsession. Every airline's hubs will be seeing ...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz
Replies: 245
Views: 44309

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Re: Business travel recovery, there was an interesting piece on The Air Current about how business travel as a proportion of travelers has already been declining for the last few decades. A lot of that is fueled by the growth of LCCs/ULCCs and the corresponding increases in leisure traffic but the i...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:15 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again
Replies: 310
Views: 64313

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Here’s an interesting article. https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/25/american-airlines-waste-cash-flow-share-buybacks.aspx It says that AA was really the only airline to waste their cash flow on stock buy backs. Based on this, I would say bankruptcy or merger is a real possibility. AA has over ...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:07 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz
Replies: 245
Views: 44309

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

As I suggested in the Delta 'to be a smaller carrier', I think airlines like United will use this to reduce the number of seats available to improve profits and able to raise overall fares. They will ditch unprofitable routes, routes that don't deliver enough connecting pax, push some smaller marke...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:02 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Civil Aeronautics Board - Time to re-regulate?
Replies: 15
Views: 1244

Re: Civil Aeronautics Board - Time to re-regulate?

We’re you flying or working in aviation in the CAB era? If so, you wouldn’t be asking this question, it was way worse and inefficient. I can only imagine the continuous bitching on this site if the US industry was regulated again. Everything from, I can’t go visit grandma for leas than $700, my fav...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 2164
Views: 380947

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Someone big is about to loose their job at the big D. When the gov asks “what happens to all your cash” and stock buy backs are you answer, heads are rolling. Ask Dickson what happens when you botch the job... They'd probably start with the billions invested in airport renovations, aircraft purchas...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 2164
Views: 380947

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

The biggest weakness in DL is its relatively heavy reliance on partners. KE/VS/AF/KL/AZ will all come out of this a different airline - will they become a liability for DL? If DL plays its cards right, they might see this as an opportunity to position itself to capture more of AA's market since AA ...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 2164
Views: 380947

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Similar to yesteryear's NRT hub situation, Delta finds itself in a paradoxical situation -- namely, the legacy carrier with the greatest resources but also the greatest vulnerability. The current crisis will accelerate the biggest trend in North American flying -- point-to-point nonstop flights bet...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:20 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 2164
Views: 380947

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

What is with this obsession with having to choose between MSP and DTW? Even if in theory they could serve a lot of the same flows, they have their own distinct niches and most importantly of all, both contribute an outsized amount of DL's revenues and profitability thanks to their strong local marke...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 2164
Views: 380947

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Could MSP, BOS, JFK/LGA, & SLC not theoretically do everything that DTW does today...? Yes. I never could figure out having two hubs (MSP and DTW) so close together. No other airline does that. What are you talking about? DTW-MSP is 530 miles. United has LAX and SFO (337mi) and IAD and EWR (212...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Aviation sector unpaid leaves and layoffs thread
Replies: 202
Views: 33200

Re: Airlines unpaid leaves and layoffs thread

The airlines are not going to have much negotiating power here. They may get what the way (and I think they need it) but long-term, look for legislation requiring larger "rainy day" funds and a ban on stock buy backs. I probably come off as a broken record at this point, but if these hypo...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 2164
Views: 380947

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

To beef up its cash position during the crisis, Delta has entered into a $2.6 billion secured credit facility and was drawing down $3 billion under its existing credit facilities. "We are currently burning roughly $50 million in cash each day," Chief Executive Officer Ed Bastian said in a...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:21 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 1524
Views: 196169

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

Something that I don't think has been discussed in detail yet in this thread is the fate of the remaining TATL LCCs. A lot of these airlines had already gone away even prior to this crisis and if Norwegian ends up either going under or being severely curtailed network-wise, it will give B6 some extr...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 2164
Views: 380947

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

This means that DL will be smaller than UA and AA? Fwiw, AA already has a bigger fleet and more destinations if I recall correctly. But in any case, AA, UA, and rest of the airlines have probably been saying the same things internally. It just hasn't gotten leaked to TPG yet. Between all the accele...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:14 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will coronavirus trigger new round of mergers?
Replies: 19
Views: 2663

Re: Will coronavirus trigger new round of mergers?

A merger makes the most sense if the component carriers have some kind of existing structural deficiency that they couldn't feasibly fix organically. Those kinds of glaring issues really just aren't there anymore to justify it. Especially right now, it wouldn't be worth the cost and effort while eve...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again
Replies: 310
Views: 64313

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

I would rather risk hostile takeovers than companies coming cap in hand every few years. If it is a problem then I would imagine there is some rule making if done right could mitigate this problem. Apple famously has a lot of cash (it only started giving dividends in the last few years) and no one ...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again
Replies: 310
Views: 64313

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

I've seen this repeated on this thread several times but this is BS. There is a difference between keeping reserves and hoarding cash. A company that hoards cash is indeed at risk of a hostile takeover, but companies trading at a mutliple of their equity or current assets is not at risk of any host...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again
Replies: 310
Views: 64313

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

No company keeps large sums of money for a rainy day as it makes them a target for a hostile takeover I've seen this repeated on this thread several times but this is BS. There is a difference between keeping reserves and hoarding cash. A company that hoards cash is indeed at risk of a hostile take...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?
Replies: 105
Views: 33267

Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

jagraham wrote:
Airlines are cash intensive. DL and UA management have stated that they cannot save their way through this crisis. Analysts say that DL needs $10 billion per month to operate normally.


How's that supposed to work if DL's annual costs are only something like $30 billion?

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:37 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?
Replies: 62
Views: 2541

Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

........but what corporations went down THAT path after an aviation downturn + investing in an e-commerce advancement? I'm struggling to cite a single one, can you? I wasn't trying to cite specific historical precedent so much as prognosticate about potential outcomes. The issue there though, is th...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:51 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?
Replies: 62
Views: 2541

Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

You will have something like Y, Y+, W, and J as a 4-class widebody as the norm. I know that's basically already the case with some of the newer/newly-refurbished aircraft out there so I don't know if that's necessarily a new trend versus an accelerated one. AA's 787s and DL's 777s immediately come ...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:39 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?
Replies: 62
Views: 2541

Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

........but what corporations went down THAT path after an aviation downturn + investing in an e-commerce advancement? I'm struggling to cite a single one, can you? I wasn't trying to cite specific historical precedent so much as prognosticate about potential outcomes. The degree of people being fo...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:11 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?
Replies: 62
Views: 2541

Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Medium-term social distancing will provide companies ample first hand experience as to how large-scale telework and teleconferencing compare to face-to-face. Some companies won't suffer productivity-wise and will probably reduce business travel spend when things get better. Others will hate it and m...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Renationalisation of airlines being a trend.
Replies: 29
Views: 4404

Re: Renationalisation of airlines being a trend.

I am sorry if this hasn't been covered in the coronavirus related thread. Upon discovering that AZ is about to be renationalised, I am almost certain that another string of airlines, perhaps less so in Europe and definitely not the US3 being renationalised. Those that i could think of as strong con...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II
Replies: 1993
Views: 337674

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

We have seen cocky airlines complaining about subsidies to competing airlines, while they didn't save up anything themselves. So now they should be given the opportunity to prove that they are as tough as they pretend to be and show us how it's done. Grants and low interest loans can come once they...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again
Replies: 310
Views: 64313

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Sorry, no special reason to bail out airlines over other organizations. Unless the White House is straight up lying, a whole lot of other businesses big and small will be getting some kind of relief so no problem there. Airlines are a cyclical industry. The expectation that it won’t be cyclical was...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Former CFO to Launch a New U.S. Budget Airline
Replies: 126
Views: 29046

Re: United Former CFO to Launch a New U.S. Budget Airline

The fact is, despite some on this site's ridiculous protests to the contrary: the market is extremely competitive, with 3 global legacy carriers + 1 regional legacy carrier, a nationwide LCC, a large east coast and transcon LCC, a large Hawaiian carrier, and two large ULCCs. There's not many niches...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska, JetBlue Lower Q1 RASM Outlook on Transcon Fare War
Replies: 25
Views: 4241

Re: Alaska, JetBlue Lower Q1 RASM Outlook on Transcon Fare War

I can personally attest this tax season is very unkind as a new york resident. Both B6 and AS trimmed their RASM outlook by 2% for Q1. A few weeks ago, WN also trimmed by 1%, but WN's original guidance was much better. That's the problem of having so much capacity tied down to transcon out of NYC/B...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Fri Mar 08, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: JAL longhaul LCC ZIPAIR discussion
Replies: 255
Views: 39920

Re: JAL longhaul LCC = ZIPAIR

http://press.jal.co.jp/ja/release/201903/005096.html

Image


Well, this certainly doesn't spark joy.
-->

ITSTours wrote:
Press release from JAL. ZIPAIR confirmed.
http://press.jal.co.jp/ja/release/201903/005096.html

Image


Well, this certainly doesn't spark joy.

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sun Mar 03, 2019 1:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: B6 Announces Major BOS Expansion
Replies: 115
Views: 20730

Re: B6 Announces Major BOS Expansion

That doesn't really contradict with what I said, though. I said that B6's business model relies on O&D traffic, which DAB apparently doesn't have enough of from NYC. JetBlue cannot be like aa or dl in nyc. It needs to be like atl or dfw. I'm not sure I follow. How do you see NYC becoming an ATL...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: B6 Announces Major BOS Expansion
Replies: 115
Views: 20730

Re: B6 Announces Major BOS Expansion

DL has as much of a presence as B6 does in BOS. Fact Check: B6 has 230% more presence than DLin BOS. BOS passengers for 12 months ending Nov 2018: 1. JetBlue 10,377,000 2. American 6,486,000 3. Delta 4,563,000 Those numbers are way off however the order by market share is correct. Due to its merger...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:55 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air Canada announces direct Vancouver to Auckland flight
Replies: 10
Views: 2917

Re: Air Canada announces direct Vancouver to Auckland flight

Its a joint venture with NZ, so really isn't a major benefit to the Public e.g. I wouldn't expect fares to drop by much.... More hopes would now be for WestJet to give it an crack 3x weekly with an 789, WestJets new CEO was ex-NZ and used to be in charge on NZ's long-haul network.... You know, lowe...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:28 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 821
Views: 153872

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

From what I've read of these answers, it seems like there isn't agreement on the criteria for selection. I always thought it was supposed to be which routes best served US consumers, which to me knocks out HNL, GUM, and LAS service. It also is not supposed to be about making things "fair"...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 821
Views: 153872

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

So far DL is the public enemy number one? What did DL do to deserve this? (genuine puzzled, not a DL fanboy nor DLs hateman) Well DL still hasn't published their response yet. They were also the last to submit their application when the proposed routes were initially submitted to the DoT. I wonder ...

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by ShinyAndChrome
Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: JAL longhaul LCC ZIPAIR discussion
Replies: 255
Views: 39920

Re: JAL longhaul LCC = ZIPAIR

Sidenote, I wonder if "Zipair" could be related to "Zipang", which was an archaic name for Japan from the Marco Polo era. Having worked in Tokyo, I think it is more likely that the "creatives" sat around a table and tried to come as close as possible to "Scoot&quo...

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