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by evanb
Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Kenya Airways Wants a Better Deal From AF-KL Partnership
Replies: 13
Views: 3839

Re: Kenya Airways Wants a Better Deal From AF-KL Partnership

I can't fathom how KQ thinks LH would partner with them...Star Alliance already includes EgyptAir, Ethiopian and South African Airways. What would KQ bring to the table? Lufthansa already codeshare/partner with several OneWorld airlines including Cathay Pacific and LATAM. Why wouldn't they consider...

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by evanb
Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emergency landing at London Stansted, planes holding and diverting
Replies: 7
Views: 4099

Re: Emergency landing at London Stansted, planes holding and diverting

Since the aircraft in question has now landed in Rome I think it's safe to assume that all is okay.

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by evanb
Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: New BKK Suvarnabhumi terminal "won't benefit users"
Replies: 12
Views: 3614

Re: New BKK Suvarnabhumi terminal "won't benefit users"

So build just shops? Yea. Sounds about right... I'm all for a reduction in the shops, but like many other passengers I'm not for the significant increase in airport costs and hence airline ticket prices that will increase as a result. Saying it another way, I'm all for the shops if it helps keep ti...

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by evanb
Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: West African Aviation Thread - 2019
Replies: 249
Views: 31987

Re: West African Aviation Thread - 2019

Certainly, the lack of strong competition presently in West Africa and the choice of the right partner to provide the feed is a big reason why SAA can afford to do this now (and why it will hopefully be more successful than previous attempts to do the same in Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda and I'm sure ...

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by evanb
Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: West African Aviation Thread - 2019
Replies: 249
Views: 31987

Re: West African Aviation Thread - 2019

No argument with this. However, the fact that SAA is adding mainline capacity to Accra rather than to domestic stations simply reiterates the point that Accra has already become SAA's defacto "base" in West Africa, and the co-ordinated partnership with AWA to provide wider feed from the r...

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by evanb
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southern African & Indian Ocean Aviation Thread - 2019
Replies: 297
Views: 51751

Re: Southern African & Indian Ocean Aviation Thread - 2019

My reference to the A330 vs A350 is that given they always lagged behind SAA on the route (time-wise), it's ironic that they will now have a flight time that is slightly less than SAA. I beg to differ. Only twice over ten segments has LA been quicker than JJ. Just because the A350 can cruise faster...

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by evanb
Thu Aug 08, 2019 2:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA increases IAD-ACC to daily nonstop A330
Replies: 15
Views: 4018

Re: SAA increases IAD-ACC to daily nonstop A330

From what I have been told, DSS has extremely high costs so I completely understand SA not wanting to transit passengers there. If costs are an issue, then SA would be very wise to stick to JNB-DSS-JNB (focus solely on the O&D) and send all IAD-bound passengers via ACC. They don't transit JNB-I...

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by evanb
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southern African & Indian Ocean Aviation Thread - 2019
Replies: 297
Views: 51751

Re: Southern African & Indian Ocean Aviation Thread - 2019

British Airways (i.e. Comair) fly once a day between JNB and WDH. Would they increase routes and frequencies if SW folded? Domestically, Westair http://westair.com.na/about-us.php want to get into the market. If SW dropped Frankfurt (and they should), would anyone step in? QR, KL, and ET currently ...

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by evanb
Sat Jul 27, 2019 12:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Can DL Pacific gateway in SEA work?
Replies: 155
Views: 21593

Re: Can DL Pacific gateway in SEA work?

I was talking more the connecting process for China is as bad as the USA. Transit Visa or not you have to go through the monstrous border patrol line to see an officer, then go to baggage claim to reclaim your bags, then drop them back again at a re-check desk, then re-process security because you ...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 25, 2019 9:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Indian Aviation Thread - July 2019
Replies: 478
Views: 40401

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - July 2019

anshabhi wrote:
Me thinks a new set of crew is cheaper than 18 hours of lost B737 hours


It's primarily about getting the timings right for the connecting banks in ADD.

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by evanb
Thu Jul 25, 2019 5:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines
Replies: 173
Views: 32842

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Thanks - makes sense I guess, though seems like a lot of ground time for the a/c. Hopefully some maintenance etc. can be taken up during it's down time. Definitely no maintenance. ET don't do any scheduled line maintenance at outstations. Only what is necessary to dispatch. Out of interest - is ET ...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 25, 2019 3:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines
Replies: 173
Views: 32842

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Their extremely good cost structuring means they can take some risks and operate at lower margins than most competitors. I'd clarify something. There exceptional cost structure means they can operate on lower revenues and still maintain strong margins. Ultimately, their margins are similar to other...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 25, 2019 3:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines
Replies: 173
Views: 32842

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

Do you think that Ethiopian Airlines will made Addis Ababa a global hub similar to what Emirates did with Dubai, Turkish Airlines with Istanbul, and Qatar Airways with Doha. Also, do you think that Ethiopia including Addis Ababa itself will become the next hot tourist destination Not a global hub, ...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 25, 2019 2:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines
Replies: 173
Views: 32842

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

The schedules indicate the flight is heading further east from BLR to add another point to the network. Does anyone know what ET is planning? No, the aircraft and crew will remain in BLR for that time. This schedule allows the flights to connect nicely in the connection banks in ADD. Furthermore, t...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 25, 2019 2:08 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Does Air Mauritius need A350s?
Replies: 1
Views: 1453

Re: Does Air Mauritius need A350s?

Air Mauritius has sent A330neos to London and Perth, and seems about to lease A350s out to SAA. It is neither large nor financially strong. I wonder if it could do without A350s all together, relying on a simpler A339-only fleet for long haul. https://simpleflying.com/australia-first-a330neo-operat...

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by evanb
Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

I don't see them replacing the A330s soon-they are less than 10 years old. If they do we'll have to wait until the turnaround strategy is fully implemented after 2021. I don't think anyone is suggesting replacing the A330s anytime soon. The 5 A330-200s are between 7 and 9 years old, while the A330-...

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by evanb
Tue Jul 23, 2019 8:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

KingOrGod wrote:
FAOR/JNB is only 5558' AMSL, or so it was when I worked there anyway. Can be thankful it isnt ADD.


Give or take 100ft or so. Thanks for the correction.

But thankfully, ADD is 1,000nm closer to JFK, 1,700nm closer to LHR and about 1,500nm closer to HKG than JNB.

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by evanb
Tue Jul 23, 2019 3:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

SAA's A346's lift 368t but they still do occasionally take a penalty on the JNB-JFK run in summer. The A343's lift 275t (ZS-SXG has a slightly lower MLW) Thanks for the correction trees. I was just using the generic data from the Airbus docs, obviously using the last off the line IGW versions. But ...

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by evanb
Tue Jul 23, 2019 12:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

Sorry, I meant A332, but same idea. Don't these fly trans-pacific too? Yes, there are plenty of A332's flying trans-Pacific, but probably not from 5,700ft AMSL. I did not realise the quads take a big enough hit to make a difference at this range. How does the A346 compare? Can it do HKG at full MTO...

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by evanb
Tue Jul 23, 2019 12:01 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

mr02 wrote:
But JNB-FRA wouldn't justify a single A35K being leased,right? Just much better to serve it with A359.


JNB-FRA alone would require two aircraft. But no, I don't think in the long term a fleet of two would be viable.

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by evanb
Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

On some days as the weather is cooler at night. The A346 can go out at MTOW. So that is what the 350 has to compete against . A346 can go out at or near MTOW most nights of the year. Even at 30C and 5700ft AMSL, the A346 it leaves about 10t of 380t behind. The A359 by comparison leaves about 10t of...

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by evanb
Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

But why not the A346. Gotta use them somewhere, they should be able to fly HKG easily without restriction and I imagine there is some cargo on this route. But we are talking about SAA so who knows. South African summer is peak tourist season to/from Europe and Australia. During that time it's not u...

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by evanb
Mon Jul 22, 2019 5:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

When did SAA drop the Dakar stop for their service to New York? I remember the last time I took that flight (albeit that was in 2010) we had either a tech or security stop in Dakar. They've tried a lot of things to the US. Specifically, they tried JNB-IAD non-stop and rather had JNB-JFK stop in DKR...

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by evanb
Mon Jul 22, 2019 4:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

Any idea why JNB-HKG is A343? Doesn't A333 have enough range for it? Or do they simply not have enough frames? The longest route for SAA A333 is LHR. I think PER is doable with the A333 (ETOPS of SAA A333?) but HKG should only be possible with payload restrictions The A343 takes a payload hit on JN...

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by evanb
Mon Jul 22, 2019 3:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

Either way, the A35K and A359 can do ALL of these routes cheaper than a 343 or 346, and profitably. Definitely cheaper in terms of fuel, not always total cost though. Those A340s are mostly owned and fully depreciated, so unless the fuel savings are massive (which they will be on the longer sectors...

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by evanb
Mon Jul 22, 2019 3:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Can DL Pacific gateway in SEA work?
Replies: 155
Views: 21593

Re: Can DL Pacific gateway in SEA work?

No. That was only the plan when it became apparent NRT was closing as a hub and KE and DL were fighting. Now that KE is a full JV partner there is no need to fly a bunch of risky stuff like SEA-SIN like they might have tried. If you look back you will see that right after the KE JV they deferred A3...

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by evanb
Mon Jul 22, 2019 1:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

The payload penalty isn’t that severe, also Avianca flight out of Bogotá. I was just mentioning that aircraft because it performs a lot better than most twins. Both the A359 and 35K can do all of South Africans routes with a moneymaking payload Avianca out of Bogotá? The longest sector they operate...

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by evanb
Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

Though the 77L's EIS was later than the 77W, it's just a reinforced and re-engined modification of the original 772 airframe; for which the 77W is a stretch, not the inverse. Maybe it didn't come across quite as intended: I said "as if" it's a shrink ... because the fuselage is not a shri...

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by evanb
Sun Jul 21, 2019 9:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

mr02 wrote:
Will they retire 2 leased a340s or store the owned ones once the A359 starts revenue service?


They have already stored several A340s and will likely store more.

Most of the A340s are owned. Only a handful (I think 4 or 16 remaining) are leased.

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by evanb
Sun Jul 21, 2019 9:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

Yes, most definitely. Although the 787-8 works well for KQ. And AM and NH out of MEX. Sure, but most of the flying KQ do is to LHR, CDG, AMS, FCO, BKK, BOM, etc which is around 3,500nm so they're not having to carry anywhere nearly as much fuel. Only JFK is a real long sector at 6,500nm. So they ca...

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by evanb
Sun Jul 21, 2019 3:33 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

Yes yes, I think Zeke would be the biggest help here. The A359 wing is HUGE, actually almost too big, and rather appropriately sized for the 35K Agreed, in some respects, it's as if the A359 is a shrink of the A359 vis-à-vis the B77L, but because it's not a shrink, it's not carrying the extra struc...

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by evanb
Sun Jul 21, 2019 2:26 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

I wouldn't worry too much about that. The first routes are likely to be London or prestige reasons and North America where the added operating costs could save the weight. PER if anything could go change of equipment to A332 but its unlikely to be at the front of the line for A350. Now if they want...

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by evanb
Sun Jul 21, 2019 2:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

With the modern generation it's not really about twins at altitude anymore, but the A35K is a stretch of the A359 and has the same wing. So while the A359 performs pretty well at altitude the A35K is inferior. The wing is one of the reasons why the B777-300ER was a better than expected performer at...

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by evanb
Sat Jul 20, 2019 11:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

Capacity. I wasn't thinking about elevation, my mistake. JFK-JNB could fill up an A35K. Too bad twins don't work better at altitude. With the modern generation it's not really about twins at altitude anymore, but the A35K is a stretch of the A359 and has the same wing. So while the A359 performs pr...

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by evanb
Sat Jul 20, 2019 11:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

Just a few years ago, when SAA still offered more than daily flights to GRU, they were the leader on GRU-HKG market, offering the most direct routing (I remember someone posting data about this here on a.net). Now, with one daily flight to GRU, connections are long and they lost this market. Right,...

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by evanb
Sat Jul 20, 2019 4:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60541

Re: SAA Leasing A350

Pellegrine wrote:
The A359 is going on JFK, it should be a A35K IMO.


And what are you basing that opinion on?

The A35K will be limited to between 285t and 290t TOW due to JNB's altitude. That's a 30t reduction in TOW from MTOW. And that's a best case scenario. So no, I don't think JNB-JFK should be a A35K.

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by evanb
Fri Jul 19, 2019 6:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Vietnam Airlines profits up, eyes narrowbody orders
Replies: 37
Views: 5130

Re: Vietnam Airlines profits up, eyes narrowbody orders

I always wondered why they had both the 787 and A350. Geo-political game playing to both the US & EU!? Because there's not nearly as much overlap in the size/mission profile between the two aircraft as AvGeeks often imagine... thus they're actually quite complimentary. Which is why the likes of...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA’s cash position
Replies: 29
Views: 6785

Re: UA’s cash position

Because corporations are not individual people. A certain amount of debt is good as long as the terms are favorable and with interest rates as low as they were over the last decade the terms are very good. Same with individuals 18% credit card debit is BAD and must not be carried however 2.5 on a c...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 18, 2019 4:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Vietnam Airlines profits up, eyes narrowbody orders
Replies: 37
Views: 5130

Re: Vietnam Airlines profits up, eyes narrowbody orders

x1234 wrote:
I always wondered why they had both the 787 and A350. Geo-political game playing to both the US & EU!?


Probably. They've had a split fleet for a while. While it's now B787 and A350 they operated B777 and A330 alongside each other for years.

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by evanb
Thu Jul 18, 2019 3:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Vietnam Airlines profits up, eyes narrowbody orders
Replies: 37
Views: 5130

Re: Vietnam Airlines profits up, eyes narrowbody orders

As for a low cost base, it pays as much - if not more - as the world average for planes, parts, fuel, financing (and probably pilots). Even in high-wage countries a carrier's total wages can be under 25% of revenues. No it doesn't pay anything similar in terms of aircraft and financing. It gets pre...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Vietnam Airlines profits up, eyes narrowbody orders
Replies: 37
Views: 5130

Re: Vietnam Airlines profits up, eyes narrowbody orders

The population is heavily bipolar, though - i.e. Hanoi (~10M) and HCMC (~12-14M). The other metro area (i.e. Hai Phong, Da Nang) are just tiny in comparison (~1M each). Sure, but by comparison, Thailand has only one metro area (Bangkok) with a population over 1 million (Chiang Mai is just less than...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Vietnam Airlines profits up, eyes narrowbody orders
Replies: 37
Views: 5130

Re: Vietnam Airlines profits up, eyes narrowbody orders

Plus Vietjet isn't gonna use these planes only for its Vietnam ops. You'll probably see at least part of them going to Thailand, and there's room to grow in both markets. Bamboo is also aiming at a different part of the market, despite its very low prices. The Asian market is growing at incredible ...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Vietnam Airlines profits up, eyes narrowbody orders
Replies: 37
Views: 5130

Re: Vietnam Airlines profits up, eyes narrowbody orders

I think the main barrier is infrastructure, or lack thereof. SGN is already creaking and heaving under the pressure, HAN is not as bad but this growth can't be handled by the current airports, certainly for those 2 cities where realistically most of the growth will go. A new SGN airport is still qu...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Vietnam Airlines profits up, eyes narrowbody orders
Replies: 37
Views: 5130

Re: Vietnam Airlines profits up, eyes narrowbody orders

I was thinking the exact opposite. I am really glad to hear that VN are doing well, but I am concerned about how sustainable the growth in the Vietnamese domestic market is and that could put significant pressure on their financial performance. Vietjet have 200 MAX and 120 NEO on order, and Bamboo ...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Vietnam Airlines profits up, eyes narrowbody orders
Replies: 37
Views: 5130

Re: Vietnam Airlines profits up, eyes narrowbody orders

Don’t they also own significant percentages of their domestic competitors? They own significant amounts of Jetstar Pacific at least. I’m not saying this is bad, not they don’t necessarily operate in a competitive domestic market. Jetstar Pacific are relatively small, but majority owned by Vietnam A...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Vietnam Airlines profits up, eyes narrowbody orders
Replies: 37
Views: 5130

Re: Vietnam Airlines profits up, eyes narrowbody orders

I've spent a lot of time working in Vietnam in the last few years. It's a fascinating place. Nearly 100 million people and strong (and consistent economic growth). Unlike China a lot more of the economic growth has been driven by a growing domestic economy rather than just export/investment led grow...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA’s cash position
Replies: 29
Views: 6785

Re: UA’s cash position

Holding onto large amounts of cash turns any company into a takeover target, especially ones without a single controlling shareholder (like United). They effectively have two options: pay down debt or return cash to shareholders. They've been doing the latter by buying shares on the open market whic...

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by evanb
Mon Jul 15, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta’s Hubs
Replies: 30
Views: 5641

Re: Delta’s Hubs

Delta is consistently the most profitable of the US3 despite having hubs in much smaller cities. Why? Of the 8 largest metro areas in the US, AA has hubs at 7 (NYC, LAX, ORD, DFW, DCA, PHL, and MIA) while UA has five (EWR, LAX, ORD, IAH, and IAD). However, DL has hubs in just NYC and LAX. Theoretic...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: PKX (Beijing Daxing) Route Announcements and News Thread
Replies: 124
Views: 27188

Re: Finnair to launch Helsinki—Beijing Daxing this November, becoming 1st inter’l carrier to operate at both PKX and PEK

Here's the timetable for LHR—PKX as compared to current LHR—PEK, obviously not much of a change LHR-PKX BA039 LHR1615 – 1025+1PKX BA038 PKX1210 – 1525LHR LHR-PEK BA039 LHR1625 – 0930+1PEK BA038 PEK1140 – 1555LHR The change is happening at the same time the BA switch from summer to winter schedule (...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: PKX (Beijing Daxing) Route Announcements and News Thread
Replies: 124
Views: 27188

Re: Beijing Daxing Route Announcements and News Thread

why is BA doing this? PEK is the preferred airport? Are they unable to get good time slots at PEK? Seems like CA is really going to win out from this. BA will want to shift PKX-LHR to an evening departure. They currently have an 11:40am departure on PEK-LHR. If you look at their SIN-LHR, KUL-LHR an...

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