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by evanb
Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s
Replies: 125
Views: 30626

Re: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s

Ethiopian aren’t paying anything back. They owe zero dividends back to government. That’s their subsidy. And don’t forget the state policies which help keep labour costs extremely low. SAA will not fail. But extreme changes are in the horizon and it is a very uncomfortable time for all involved. I ...

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by evanb
Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s
Replies: 125
Views: 30626

Re: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s

I want to have sympathy, but how can Ethiopia who in the same 41 years as your wife managed to run their airline through revolutions and famine? Comparing Ethiopia to South Africa is a distraction. Ethiopia is an authoritarian state which enable massive implicit subsidies to the airline with stagge...

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by evanb
Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s
Replies: 125
Views: 30626

Re: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s

Wow I would have thought DC was profitable for them especially with the Accra stop.. Star Hub plus there's a large Ghanaian DC population that loved the direct flight. And it certainly still is. They're cutting 2 flights during the whole month to manage capacity. Doesn't mean it isn't making money....

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by evanb
Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60488

Re: SAA Leasing A350

Don’t know if this has been posted before, but SAA will deploynthe A350 to FRA too. Booked a flight in September and although it shows A346 on booking sites, I noticed in my booking the seating is 3-3-3 so it’s an A350. Too bad, A346 would be nice as we’re travelling with a group of 4, 2-4-2 seatin...

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by evanb
Wed Jan 29, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Air Lines Introduces Delta One on Atlanta-Bogota Route
Replies: 63
Views: 9333

Re: Delta Air Lines Introduces Delta One on Atlanta-Bogota Route

Cut Roses will likely fill up much of that 763 belly...With Bogota, its all about cargo! Ding Ding ... we have a winner. BOG if one of the few airports in the world with consistent high value cargo demand. The extra cargo revenue (probably got a contract) will easily pay for the margin cost differe...

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by evanb
Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s
Replies: 125
Views: 30626

Re: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s

As far as I remember I was working well enough. The issue they had was their aircraft was stuck in CPT for a day, they could get two roundtrips to the US in the same time as one roundtrip to CPT. That works much better. I'm not sure how well it was working, although I'm not sure how well anything w...

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by evanb
Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s
Replies: 125
Views: 30626

Re: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s

SAA actually ordered 4 77Es (+ 3 options) in the mid 90s. Obviously the order was eventually cancelled and SAA ordered A340s. Not entirely correct. They did order four B77Es in 1995 (alongside an additional two B744s), but they were not cancelled in favor of A340s. The B77E deposits were cashed in ...

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by evanb
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL772 stuck in JNB
Replies: 35
Views: 14397

Re: DL772 stuck in JNB

February is usually the hottest month so harder times are coming. I know these data are rather out-of-date, but by no measure is February the hottest month. It's certainly hot and likely to have some particularly hot days that will be challenging, but generally not hotter than January, and not hott...

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by evanb
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60488

Re: SAA Leasing A350

Do you have data regarding max payload difference between A346 and A359 on this route? Very rough estimates, at 5,500ft AMSL Standard day: B77L RTOW 330t MTOW 347t B789 RTOW 240t MTOW 254t A359 RTOW 275t MTOW 280t A346 RTOW 375t MTOW 375t (I'm rounding up on RTOW, but it's gets as close to MTOW as ...

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by evanb
Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60488

Re: SAA Leasing A350

Holy moly! I didn't expect the difference to be that much. How does weight/passenger restrictions compare? Indeed, but you hint at an important point, the A350 also carries less payload so per ton of payload, the A350 doesn't burn 25% less. I suspect that SAA were flying the A346 on the route for p...

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by evanb
Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60488

Re: SAA Leasing A350

@evanb do you have any information on the fuel use on SA203 of the A359 compared to the A346? Would be nice to know what sort of gains SAA are getting in efficiency. Working numbers are about 90t on the A359 and 120t on the A346, so a savings of about 30t each way. Also, is passenger numbers taking...

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by evanb
Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s
Replies: 125
Views: 30626

Re: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s

If an airline which operates mostly from a hot and high airport doesn't want the A340 any more, who should buy it? Is the A340 really so bad for them, or did a politician have a wet dream? Also, if the airline is about to go bankrupt, why would somebody lease new A350s to them? They ordered the A34...

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by evanb
Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:34 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL772 stuck in JNB
Replies: 35
Views: 14397

Re: DL772 stuck in JNB

JNB-ATL leaves late in the day, so listing the high temperature isn't an accurate depiction of what it is at takeoff. Even 75 Fahrenheit is likely overstating it based on the late day temp data for the past few days. Indeed, it's certainly leaves on the later side, but the departure time is also ba...

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by evanb
Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL772 stuck in JNB
Replies: 35
Views: 14397

Re: DL772 stuck in JNB

Anyone here have any stats on if the B789 of UA can lift payload out of the hot & high JNB better than the DL 77L? BTW UA's *A partner just started JNB-JFK on the A350 today (still 2-2-2 business class seats from ex-Hainan plane). Very, very rough. For good measure, I included A359: Standard da...

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by evanb
Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60488

Re: SAA Leasing A350

x1234 wrote:
A350 should be able to fly faster @ Mach 0.855 resulting in a quicker trip (15 hours)?


It can, doesn't mean it will. Tonight's will be about 15:50.

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by evanb
Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL772 stuck in JNB
Replies: 35
Views: 14397

Re: DL772 stuck in JNB

Except JNB’s weather has been anything but hot lately. Yesterday it was 75*F and the same the days before. They should have no problem taking off with appropriate fuel at that temp Sure, but that is plenty hot at that altitude with winds like that. On 18 January, the day with the strongest headwind...

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by evanb
Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL201 JNB-ATL 777 diverts to MIA this morning
Replies: 38
Views: 7408

Re: DL201 JNB-ATL 777 diverts to MIA this morning

Here you go! South African approved fly JNB-JFK Airbus 350. See? https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/288877/south-african-airways-adds-a350-new-york-flights-from-jan-2020/ Delta could fly A350 JNB to ATL almost same as JFK. And so? If you neighbor jumps off a bridge do you follow him?...

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by evanb
Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL201 JNB-ATL 777 diverts to MIA this morning
Replies: 38
Views: 7408

Re: DL201 JNB-ATL 777 diverts to MIA this morning

At first glance, I scratched my head at JFK. Once I got geographic bearings I understood along with the reasons listed above. I am surprised DL doesn't have a destinated diversion airport for the JNB-ATL when the weather becomes a factor. According to this forum, there has been 3 different airports...

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by evanb
Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southern African & Indian Ocean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 127
Views: 13141

Re: Southern African & Indian Ocean Aviation Thread - 2020

SAA still has two 737-300s in the fleet. Is this accurate? If so, are they actually being used? Where? Or are they in storage somewhere? Yes, they are freighters that operate overnight domestic routes, and daytime regional. You can see them regularly in MPM, LUN, NBO, EBB, LLW, FIH, HRE, BLZ, DAR a...

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by evanb
Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL201 JNB-ATL 777 diverts to MIA this morning
Replies: 38
Views: 7408

Re: DL201 JNB-ATL 777 diverts to MIA this morning

Delta should switches from B777LR to Airbus 350. Maybe A350 is better performance than 777LR. DL have 10 B777-200LRs, likely nearly paid off and nearly fully depreciated. They need to fly somewhere. They're best suited to their longest routes or those that need the largest lifting power, invariably...

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by evanb
Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s
Replies: 125
Views: 30626

Re: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s

Also, the current schedule requires about 15 widebody aircraft (17 if you include the suspended JNB-HKG route). They have 11x A330s, 17x A340s (although some are stored) and now 4x A350s. Even with the sale of these 9, there is still sufficient capacity to operate the schedule.

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by evanb
Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s
Replies: 125
Views: 30626

Re: SAA trying to sell 9 A340s

Theses 9x A340s have effectively been replaced by 5x A330-300s and the 4x newly arrived A350s. It's a one-for-one replacement. The reason that SAA kept them for a while (alongside the A330-300s) was to cover for a series of heavy maintenance checks on the A330-200s and remaining leased A340s. As the...

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by evanb
Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL201 diversion to SJU, 1/6/20
Replies: 12
Views: 3407

Re: DL201 diversion to SJU, 1/6/20

It wasn't a diversion. It was a planned tech-stop for fuel. It was pretty warm at JNB last night in addition to a heavy load.

It only spent 39 minutes on the ground at SJU suggesting passengers remained onboard.

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by evanb
Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL60/01JAN GIG-ATL N154DL double diversion
Replies: 28
Views: 8455

Re: DL60/01JAN GIG-ATL N154DL double diversion

I flew down on DL61/28DEC ATL-GIG and booked back on AA. It looks like it was a good idea in the end (despite the markedly lower level of inflight service from AA in J), as it seems like N154DL is also plowing the skies on the return last night - but diverted to POS and now SJU. Anyone know what is...

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by evanb
Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60488

Re: SAA Leasing A350

What is the status if the A350 lease with SAA declaring Bankruptcy ? They didn't declare bankruptcy. They've entered a process under South Africa law called business rescue where an independent practitioner takes over de facto removing the power of the board and shareholders. They have to generate ...

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by evanb
Thu Nov 28, 2019 8:58 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FAA accuses Lufthansa of illegal flights
Replies: 112
Views: 22045

Re: FAA accuses Lufthansa of illegal flights

sadiqutp wrote:
So, airports in the US don't cross-examine the eligibility of airlines to operate before granting slots?
And why only LH is in hot water and not the airports?


Is either airport slot controlled?

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by evanb
Thu Nov 21, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Big capacity increase on VS's LHR-JFK flight due to 4 x A350's being deployed on route. Were they under capacity before?
Replies: 32
Views: 7589

Re: Big capacity increase on VS's LHR-JFK flight due to 4 x A350's being deployed on route. Were they under capacity bef

Given that the DL/VS JV do connect traffic through JFK one can't simply see it as being over/under capacity between JFK-LHR, but rather the entire network. For example, an increase in capacity on JFK-LHR may have offset a commensurate capacity decline over another hub.

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by evanb
Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Nothing landing at LHR at the moment?
Replies: 27
Views: 9362

Re: Nothing landing at LHR at the moment?

Won't it be sensible for those too-early arrivals to fly slower, thus burning less fuel en route as well as then saving fuel by not stacking ? Could be, or hold departure at origin. The challenge can come in at busy departure airports which don't make it as easy to hold departure or when one is fly...

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by evanb
Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60488

Re: SAA Leasing A350

Whatever problems SAA has some of their ultra long haul routes have to be dogs, is flying nonstop with either an A350 or A340-600 to JFK profitable ? Highly doubtful. Many SAA routes are flown for political reasons for the South African Government. Which ones are those? While it's a nice soundbite ...

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by evanb
Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA Leasing A350
Replies: 244
Views: 60488

Re: SAA Leasing A350

They could operate aircraft given to them for free, burning fuel given to them for free, and they'd still be just as incompetent today as they were yesterday. I know it sounded nice when you thought of this, but if they were given aircraft and fuel for free they'd have made R6.8 billion profit in 2...

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by evanb
Wed Oct 30, 2019 2:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: East African Aviation Thread - 2019
Replies: 340
Views: 46464

Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2019

Tanzania takes delivery of second Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner http://www.china.org.cn/world/Off_the_Wire/2019-10/26/content_75343386.htm They had the first one for over a year and get horrible utilization with it, flying a 3x weekly flight to BOM and occassional regional destinations. That must be burn...

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by evanb
Sun Oct 27, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southern African & Indian Ocean Aviation Thread - 2019
Replies: 297
Views: 51680

Re: Southern African & Indian Ocean Aviation Thread - 2019

Nah. I think SAA will deploy the A359 on the HKG route and could reduce it due to the new Guangzhou route. But I get where you going with the India flight via MRU. The A359, which will be leased from Air Mauritius, will be deployed solely on the JNB-JFK route according to SAA. The latter has alread...

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by evanb
Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Ethiopian considers stake in SAA
Replies: 12
Views: 2105

Re: Ethiopian considers stake in SAA

The A340-600s are quite dated inside Most of the A340-600s are no longer active and are only regularly flying two routes, JNB-JFK and JNB-FRA. The A340s will likely be retired with the arrival of the A350s beginning early next month. Most widebody flying is now done on the A330s (GRU, IAD, LOS, ACC...

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by evanb
Mon Oct 07, 2019 6:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Ethiopian considers stake in SAA
Replies: 12
Views: 2105

Re: Ethiopian considers stake in SAA

This would defiantly be a positive for SAA, but curious with Ethiopian will follow through and what control they would get. I think SAA are working on closer relationships with other African airlines so this would make sense but this is no easy turn around task. SAA is a great airline and I enjoyed...

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by evanb
Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: East African Aviation Thread - 2019
Replies: 340
Views: 46464

Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2019

I think WB has nonstop service from COO to LBV, DLA and ABJ. There are other flights in these same markets. If Benin needed a national carrier it would probably to serve markets with no service, or not enough service, not these markets. COO is well served from all directions, they probably just nee...

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by evanb
Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL9735 today, A350 ATL-LGA?
Replies: 14
Views: 4365

Re: DL9735 today, A350 ATL-LGA?

As far as I can see there are no DL A350s on the ground in ATL at the moment. Also, none scheduled to arrive anytime soon. The next is N513DZ due from ICN as DL 26 at 7:13pm which will depart to ICM as DL 27 at 12:20am.

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by evanb
Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA Considering A Return to India + Africa Routes
Replies: 236
Views: 37629

Re: AA Considering A Return to India + Africa Routes

JFK is the least distance. AA is better off doing JFK-JNB; will get a lot of business traffic from the financial capital of the word; lots of O&D traffic + easy connections to the rest of USA since it is an AA hub with connections to all over US & Canada. And competing with SA and UA (EWR-C...

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by evanb
Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles
Replies: 39
Views: 7362

Re: Air Senegal to launch flights from Dakar to Washington-Dulles

People's knowledge about Senegal Airlines: 0, People's assumptions cause it's from Africa: 10,000 Air Senegal has a very modern fleet, no major issues, it serves as an investment tool for the Senegalese government, its purpose is not to be 100% profitable Sure, expensive new planes without the oper...

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by evanb
Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Ethiopian Cuts Addis Ababa-Lome-Houston Before It Starts?
Replies: 61
Views: 13419

Re: Ethiopian Cuts Addis Ababa-Lome-Houston Before It Starts?

ET probably went into Abidjan more as a defensive measure to prevent someone else going to North America from there (SAA had mild interest before making the very firm commitment to the Accra hub, and Rwandair has flirted with it as well). On paper, the market is very promising but there are non-mar...

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by evanb
Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:58 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Thai govt ask for airlines to utilize more widebodies at Bangkok DMK
Replies: 42
Views: 9770

Re: Thai govt ask for airlines to utilize more widebodies at Bangkok DMK

Pretty simple. When BKK opened, DMK closed. Very soon however operational and safety problems, along with crowding and high cost for airlines created pressure to reopen DMK. Within 6 months DMK was reopened for domestic services. Eventually Thai government actually encouraged LCCs, domestic and cha...

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by evanb
Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Thai govt ask for airlines to utilize more widebodies at Bangkok DMK
Replies: 42
Views: 9770

Re: Thai govt ask for airlines to utilize more widebodies at Bangkok DMK

Maybe they should expand the facility first. Everytime I passed through DMK or BKK, the immigration halls are so over crowded. I can't imagine more wide bodies passing through that area The immigration lines are mostly a function of Thailand deciding to implement biometric collections. Hopefully th...

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by evanb
Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Thai govt ask for airlines to utilize more widebodies at Bangkok DMK
Replies: 42
Views: 9770

Re: Thai govt ask for airlines to utilize more widebodies at Bangkok DMK

lightsaber wrote:
Good for Thailand that DMK used up the available slots. What are the BKK expansion plans? When does BKK add a terminal and runway?


They're building a new terminal as we speak.

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by evanb
Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:52 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Thai govt ask for airlines to utilize more widebodies at Bangkok DMK
Replies: 42
Views: 9770

Re: Thai govt ask for airlines to utilize more widebodies at Bangkok DMK

But who sees the likes of AisAsia, Malindo, Nok Air or Tigerair adding widebodies for short-haul just because DMK as the only airport in their networks is capacity-constrained? This is really wishful thinking and against core elements of the short-haul LCC model. Last time I checked Air Asia (throu...

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by evanb
Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: BA and the A350-1000
Replies: 37
Views: 9882

Re: BA and the A350-1000

anrec80 wrote:
Isn’t A350-1000 a 77W replacement? 772 is more 359? Is BA even ordering 359?


BA are de facto replacing some of the B747-400 with the A350-1000. It's not a like-for-like replacement though.

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by evanb
Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Norwegian offers bondholders security (LGW slots) in exchange for amended bond maturities
Replies: 138
Views: 7486

Re: Norwegian Air Fights for Survival

enilria wrote:
First, I'm interested where you see Norwegian's connect traffic rate.


Norwegian Chief Commercial Officer Thomas Ramdahl said: “We already see a large number of passengers making connections between Norwegian’s own long-haul and short-haul networks."

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by evanb
Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Norwegian offers bondholders security (LGW slots) in exchange for amended bond maturities
Replies: 138
Views: 7486

Re: Norwegian Air Fights for Survival

It's great that you disagree, but it's just math and it's how all ULCCs work. There's nothing to disagree with. Never said legacies were not maximizing revenue. Often there are situation where you can, for example, add better food that costs $8 and charge $10 for it and increase your revenue and pe...

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by evanb
Thu Sep 05, 2019 7:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What Defines a Low Cost Carrier?
Replies: 17
Views: 2368

Re: What Defines a Low Cost Carrier?

An easy financial definition: an airline that has a significantly lower unit cost compared to other carriers flying in the same jurisdiction.

A marketing definition: any airline that wants to call itself one.

A practical definition: any new airline.

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by evanb
Thu Sep 05, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Norwegian offers bondholders security (LGW slots) in exchange for amended bond maturities
Replies: 138
Views: 7486

Re: Norwegian Air Fights for Survival

There is one thing that very few people on a.net seem to understand about LCCs. If you are a legacy your business model is to charge local passengers as much as possible because you have the only non-stop and they fill up 30-50% of the plane (e.g. local fare $1400 rt transatlantic). The connect tra...

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by evanb
Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Norwegian offers bondholders security (LGW slots) in exchange for amended bond maturities
Replies: 138
Views: 7486

Re: Norwegian Air Fights for Survival

Use lower cost crew/pilots by structuring the ownership in various countries that allow lower pay/benefits How substantial is this? Furthermore, is this a function of the LCC model viz-a-viz legacies? Use the 787 which is more efficient and less costly to fly (at the time) than the competition's ai...

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by evanb
Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Norwegian offers bondholders security (LGW slots) in exchange for amended bond maturities
Replies: 138
Views: 7486

Re: Norwegian Air Fights for Survival

Something that the Norwegian fans/supporters have been able/willing to answer: How are LCCs able to sufficiently reduce their cost structure viz-a-viz legacy carriers on long haul routes? The genesis of LCCs on short haul routes was their ability to lower their cost structure through elements of sin...

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