Search found 13021 matches

by keesje
Thu Jul 25, 2019 10:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?
Replies: 353
Views: 68064

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

I think we should leave behind some popular assumptions: :splat: The MAX backlog is solid, :splat: Boeing sells thousands of additional MAX aircraft filling slots up to 2030, :splat: Airbus won't launch A220-500 /A320Plus :splat: People and airlines forget the MAX drama easily :splat: a twin aisle d...

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by keesje
Thu Jul 25, 2019 3:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?
Replies: 353
Views: 68064

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

If they really need it by 2027 and assuming NMA is a tight light 7W - it may be a lot faster/cheaper to base NSA on the NMA Cockpit/barrel vs starting clean sheet again. With projected NMA entry of 2025 you would have to think a lot of that work is already done (Cockpit and barrel design). Than do ...

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by keesje
Thu Jul 25, 2019 2:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019
Replies: 2429
Views: 318579

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

I think Boeing needs to start thinking (behind closed doors) about a plan B.

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1415977&p=21536649#p21536455

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by keesje
Thu Jul 25, 2019 2:22 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Could KLM have the 3 variants of Boeing 787?
Replies: 18
Views: 2991

Re: Could KLM have the 3 variants of Boeing 787?

When it’s time to replace the remaining A330s, it’s going to be probably another mix of 787-9s and -10s. The A321XLR would make a good A330-200 replacement on thinner routes. But then again, with AMS being so slot restricted it's simply not interesting for KLM to look at those kind of routes. At SP...

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by keesje
Thu Jul 25, 2019 12:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?
Replies: 353
Views: 68064

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Revelation, it might be time for Boeing management to reset strategy: - not all customers love us so much - the MAX contracts have termination conditions mostly matched by us at this stage - the airlines never stumbled over each other to get 737-7 /-9/-10s - Airbus NB's are almost sold out for 2027 ...

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by keesje
Thu Jul 25, 2019 10:47 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?
Replies: 353
Views: 68064

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Since starting this thread early this year, some time before the Ethiopian crash & grounding, the 737 situation has detoriated. Even at that stage it was clear the 737-7 and 737-9/10 are in a competitively unfavourable situation. There is renewed focus on 737 aircraft certification. On the other...

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by keesje
Wed Jul 24, 2019 8:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will WN ever order the 737 MAX 9 or MAX 10?
Replies: 35
Views: 5563

Re: Will WN ever order the 737 MAX 9 or MAX 10?

I think the 737-8 and A223 might be good combo replacing 737-700 and 737-800.

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by keesje
Wed Jul 24, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Aerospace analyst Ron Epstein posed a tough question on the status of the New Midmarket Airplane, noting problems with the 787, 747-8, MAX and KC-46A as the problems facing a decision on NMA. Muilenburg acknowledged that design and production risk are part of the business case analysis before green...

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by keesje
Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Aerospace analyst Ron Epstein posed a tough question on the status of the New Midmarket Airplane, noting problems with the 787, 747-8, MAX and KC-46A as the problems facing a decision on NMA. Muilenburg acknowledged that design and production risk are part of the business case analysis before green...

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by keesje
Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019
Replies: 2429
Views: 318579

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

. Boeing warns of production reduction, complete shut down of MAX if return to service delayed beyond 4th quarter https://leehamnews.com/2019/07/24/boeing-warns-of-production-reduction-complete-shut-down-of-max-return-to-service-delayed-beyond-4th-quarter/ Reality is kicking in. You can't keep buil...

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by keesje
Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019
Replies: 636
Views: 164952

Re: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019

You are never going to get specifics about the certification if that is what you want. Even in your first quote he is being very generic about the process. If certification results in delay the most you will get is something along the lines of ‘new certification requirements/procedures is resulting...

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by keesje
Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

The 2025 delivery is still possibly plausible I guess we all know this is not going to happen. But we like the idea & stick with it. Programs during the last 20 years took 7-8 years, even upgrades. In terms of company condition, priorities and closing the business case, the 797 program is not a...

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by keesje
Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

To make an oval 2-3-2 fuselage a bit lighter and improve cargo capability for Asia, they could make it a bit higher. Maybe using a dubble bubble to reduce loads. 8 abreast could be used for ULCC's narrowing seats and aisles.

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by keesje
Wed Jul 24, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Boeings goal is to bring a super lean MoM Aircraft that is "cheap" and does not need too much new technic upgrades over current aircraft (as said by Boeing) to gain a massive advantage over existing aircraft, and also be competitive 10-15 years after EIS it has to be designed narrow, so o...

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by keesje
Wed Jul 24, 2019 7:26 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Any idea about the empty weights. The composites 787 has the same empty weight as the A330. Boeing said they avoid technical challenging technology. A 7 abreast 767-200 weighs 80-81t, a single aisle 757-200 58t. https://theblogbyjavier.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/civil-aircraft-price-per-kg.png http...

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by keesje
Tue Jul 23, 2019 4:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

A tight, light 7-across ovoid cross section not massively greater than the cross-section of an A32X would not weigh a lot more than the A321XLR and not be much more expensive. Let's just add 40 inch in cross section, a seatpan, 2 armrests and an aisle. Making a flat cross section adds weight over a...

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by keesje
Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022
Replies: 559
Views: 94707

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

I hoped for years AF could motivate Airbus to create a logical moderately grown A320Plus to replace the 30 years old A320 cabin fleet. The A321 is a whopping 8 rows(!) bigger and more expensive than an A320. 198 seats/ 4 cabin crew would be the holy grail of crew efficiency, without deleting meal s...

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by keesje
Tue Jul 23, 2019 1:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022
Replies: 559
Views: 94707

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

I hoped for years AF could motivate Airbus to create a logical moderately grown A320Plus to replace the 30 years old A320 cabin fleet. The A321 is a whopping 8 rows(!) bigger and more expensive to operate than an A320. 198 seats/ 4 cabin crew would be the holy grail of crew efficiency, without delet...

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by keesje
Tue Jul 23, 2019 12:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019
Replies: 636
Views: 164952

Re: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019

A few months ago Muilenburg discussed 777-9 certification: "Muilenburg says the controversy surrounding 737 MAX certification is unlikely to affect certification of the new widebody. “I don't see anything there right now that would significantly alter the timeline for the 777X, but it's possib...

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by keesje
Tue Jul 23, 2019 12:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019
Replies: 636
Views: 164952

Re: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019

A few months ago Muilenburg discussed 777-9 certification: "Muilenburg says the controversy surrounding 737 MAX certification is unlikely to affect certification of the new widebody. “I don't see anything there right now that would significantly alter the timeline for the 777X, but it's possibl...

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by keesje
Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

I just have a huge problem when linking the bypass ratio to thrust levels. Yeah, well... there is a link, but its far more complex than just bigger = more. I suppose most are just seeing: - Newer engines have higher BPRs. - Newer engines have higher thrust levels. and extrapolating a somewhat incor...

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by keesje
Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:38 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Aircraft design and engine design are not done by Excel spread sheets, mkay. You'd be both alarmed and disgusted if you knew just how much that was not true. :cry: I just have a huge problem when linking the bypass ratio to thrust levels. While there is no direct relation, you can produce a graph i...

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by keesje
Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Let us assume a realistic 797 benchmark: :airplane: a NB fuselage :airplane: mass produced :airplane: 2 versions for up to 230-250 passengers :airplane: range up to up to 3700-4700NM, :airplane: rolling of US, China and Euro assembly lines, a few years earlier than a 797. :airplane: an OEW of around...

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by keesje
Mon Jul 22, 2019 6:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thanks In terms of sizes I doubt they ever do an NMA 797-5 - it would be too small. I think the smallest would be the NMA-6. However I could see them doing one size smaller (using same barrel) NSA - call it 200 seat 1 class to maximize efficiency of FA's at 4. This would be equivalent in size to Ke...

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by keesje
Mon Jul 22, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019
Replies: 636
Views: 164952

Re: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019

Any news on the 777-9 certification process by Boeing and the FAA?

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by keesje
Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

I think the fact we have been discussing this for 4 years and the lauch will be next airshow, should indicate how solid the business case is. Meanwhile the situation has not really changed, so.. Oops it has, Boeing is facing one of the worst crises in its history. Time for a reset or live in the pa...

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by keesje
Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

You would think building a wide body with narrow body economics is a goal that a.net would get behind, but instead we see the rotten tomatoes fly. True, but there's also a school that prefers to seperate non-binding marketing ammo from aircraft specification and design. Specially if the source of t...

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by keesje
Mon Jul 22, 2019 1:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

You would think building a wide body with narrow body economics is a goal that a.net would get behind, but instead we see the rotten tomatoes fly. True, but there's also a school that prefers to seperate non-binding marketing ammo from aircraft specification and design. Specially if the source of t...

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by keesje
Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019
Replies: 2429
Views: 318579

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Former chairman and MD of NTSB takes hammer to Boeing The Boeing 737 Max crises is a leadership crises https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/17/opinion/boeing-737-max.html Fair use excerpt: We’ve seen this before: A Boeing airliner crashes, killing all aboard. Investigators believe a design flaw in the a...

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by keesje
Sun Jul 21, 2019 5:47 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

I fear Boeing is in no position to simultaneously develop an NMA and an NSA. A smaller type, ultra lean, competing in the 170-220 seat <3000NM segment seems required. Or the competition will have them for lunch. Welcome to 2019. In this thread you have suggested that Boeing do the following ⋅&...

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by keesje
Sat Jul 20, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

I fear Boeing is in no position to simultaneously develop an NMA and an NSA. A smaller type, ultra lean, competing in the 170-220 seat <3000NM segment seems required. Or the competition will have them for lunch. Welcome to 2019.

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by keesje
Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Expects a $5.6 Billion Hit for 737 Max Disruptions
Replies: 128
Views: 13767

Re: Boeing Expects a $5.6 Billion Hit for 737 Max Disruptions

I don't want to put oil on the fire, but the MAX backlog hasn't become more solid. Boeing can't meet contracted deliveries. Airlines can decide to fly existing fleets longer, e.g. NG's for 35-40 yrs, deferring/ cancelling orders, take less aircaft, change their fleetmix, optimizing their network, or...

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by keesje
Fri Jul 19, 2019 4:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Expects a $5.6 Billion Hit for 737 Max Disruptions
Replies: 128
Views: 13767

Re: Boeing Expects a $5.6 Billion Hit for 737 Max Disruptions

The origins of this drama go back to 2011 when Boeing had underestimated the NEO & had to rush a 737 re-engining. That in itself was a result of all attention focussed on getting the years delayed, overpromised 787 into service. So this could be considered a double whammy from those decisions. T...

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by keesje
Fri Jul 19, 2019 3:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Expects a $5.6 Billion Hit for 737 Max Disruptions
Replies: 128
Views: 13767

Re: Boeing Expects a $5.6 Billion Hit for 737 Max Disruptions

Or in other words, the tax payer is footing an important part of the bill. Great. No, the tax payer isn't footing any of the bill. Boeing will only pay less taxes by making less profit. These costs are real. It isn't like they have made up a charge to reduce the tax liability on profits. A company ...

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by keesje
Fri Jul 19, 2019 1:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

The 767-400ER got an updated cockpit, redesigned landing gear, and 777-style Signature Interior in the late nineties, CAD has been there since the late eighties. The design would not necessary change. But to incorporate the advance manufacturing technique being applied to the T-X would require conv...

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by keesje
Fri Jul 19, 2019 1:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: With A220 output set to climb, Airbus eyes additional facility in Mirabel
Replies: 12
Views: 2680

Re: With A220 output set to climb, Airbus eyes additional facility in Mirabel

Let’s face it this will have always been part of the plan, the Mobile FAL was only ever done to get around the threat of punitive import fees associated with the DL order, had that not happened one Airbus might not even be part of the project and two the FAL would not have happened, ironically the ...

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by keesje
Fri Jul 19, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

The 767 seems very much right sized for the job. -> Boeing says so! The 767-200ER is outside of your MOM circle and the 767-300ER just scrapes in. With new engines the dots will shift to the right. Both will now be well outside the MOM circle. That graph shows that it is NOT right sized for the job...

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by keesje
Fri Jul 19, 2019 10:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

I think a "plan B" for the middle of market might not be a bad idea. The 767 seems very much right sized for the job. -> Boeing says so! https://i.pinimg.com/originals/7b/00/45/7b00456ce19c9383f5b7fc2dbcb6a8af.jpg People still believing Boeing can easily spend anything and have time on the...

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by keesje
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:31 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Speaking of the A220...
Replies: 13
Views: 2362

Re: Speaking of the A220...

The 300 pound gorilla sitting on the fence is South West Airlines. They need to start replacing their 3 cabin attendant, 500x 737-700s. The A220-300 is much lighter, more comfortable, cheaper to operate than the 737-7. SouthWest is studying / eveluating it. https://samchui.com/2019/04/28/southwests-...

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by keesje
Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

No new wing, no new cross section. That means a new aircraft, billions, time to market, risk. Just new engines, the KC46 system upgrades, upgraded glass cockpit, maybe MAX style wing tips. To make any new 767 MAX cost competitive, Boeing would need to re-do the structural engineering to adopt the n...

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by keesje
Thu Jul 18, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

I think everybody is getting a bit nervous on what Boeing should really do. If the MAX drama drags on into 2020, the financial situation, backlog and public perceptions (=stock value) will take a big hit. https://www.news18.com/news/auto/globally-grounded-boeing-737-max-8-unlikely-to-restart-operat...

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by keesje
Thu Jul 18, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1250
Views: 169616

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

I think everybody is getting a bit nervous on what Boeing should really do. If the MAX drama drags on into 2020, the financial situation, backlog and public perceptions (=stock value) will take a big hit. https://www.news18.com/news/auto/globally-grounded-boeing-737-max-8-unlikely-to-restart-operati...

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by keesje
Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says
Replies: 301
Views: 49355

Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Airbus would need a production capacity of ca. 40 A220 family aircraft per month in 2026 to slowly discontinue the 320 and from there on concentrate fully on A321(with 40 per month) while starting to transition removed A320 capacity to the A322 (A321 with new wing and engine and A220 cockpit), and ...

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by keesje
Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says
Replies: 301
Views: 49355

Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

A two class 150 seat aircraft, sufficantly lighter / leaner than the A320s / 737-800s looks tempting for some operations op to 3-4 hours. 28F seems like a very large cabin. I don't think anyone operates an F cabin in the US anywhere near as large? In Europe it is highly unlikely that any large airl...

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by keesje
Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says
Replies: 301
Views: 49355

Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

When deciding to commit to a new type, longer term developments are taken into account. While the A220-300 seems well positioned as A318, A319, 737-700 replacement, an A220-500 would overlap with the A320 and 737-8, despite being a little smaller / less capable. While the focus for the next few year...

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by keesje
Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:30 am
Forum: Site Related
Topic: Progress: Case for a Dedicated Helicopter / VTOL Forum
Replies: 50
Views: 8672

Re: Progress: Case for a Dedicated Helicopter / VTOL Forum

Thanks for the support. I feel a new forum could be really succesfull for a.net. Earlier on I proposed to have members point out 50-100 good threads on Helicopter / VTOL topics in other forums and move them to the new forum. That way the Helicopter / VTOL forum could be filled with interesting topic...

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by keesje
Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:48 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A321neo operators alerted over 'excessive pitch' anomaly
Replies: 92
Views: 25364

Re: A321neo operators alerted over 'excessive pitch' anomaly

As I, a fool I know, understand it - as the A320 is a FBW aeroplane the all fixes are software related and part of the core flight envelope programming. The MAX however required additional and new flight control software to become initially certifiable. A big difference. You nailed it on the head. ...

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by keesje
Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:09 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: KLM getting bad press over breastfeeding
Replies: 104
Views: 7543

Re: KLM getting bad press over breastfeeding

Scandalous Lets post dozens of big breast feeding photos here, now. And see what happens W'll say it's a scandal when they are removed or are not removed. https://www.heart.co.uk/lifestyle/parenting/mum-furious-ryanair-stop-breastfeeding-flight/ https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/feat-united-air...

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by keesje
Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:33 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022
Replies: 559
Views: 94707

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

If the news is correct then Air France would take A321neo and A220-300 instead of A321neo, A320neo and A319neo. What happens to the "family concept"? We can then legitimately ask the question on the fate of the A319neo, although we know the A319neo with CFM Leap-1A engines already obtaine...

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by keesje
Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?
Replies: 353
Views: 68064

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

I wonder how they came up with that 450 orders for the MAX-10? I count 579. While some of these are in jeopardy, I am not aware of any canceled orders. Of course, Boeing insists that a MAX order is a MAX order, and the airline is free to change precise numbers of variants. People have been combinin...

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