Search found 343 matches

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by Taxi645
Sat Dec 15, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO
Replies: 172
Views: 20522

Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

As said above, any healthy bussiness has a regular strategy review. You want to make sure that the facts, projections, developments, assesments, threats and opportunities etc. that were the basis or consequence of said strategy are still correct. Such a review can be caused by a significant event, b...

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by Taxi645
Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO
Replies: 172
Views: 20522

Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

If Airbus is going to do a strategic review of wing development and production post Brexit, I reckon the Dutch wouldn't say no: - Still strong competence in aviation tech - logistically well placed in relation to Germany, France and the sea. - Several underused local Airports. - Still got some credi...

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by Taxi645
Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR
Replies: 595
Views: 94825

Re: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

I suspect though EK could on average fill an extra 50 seats. But it does explain why a stretch is unlikely in my mind. Far better to optimise the wing for the current configuration in any neo. A stretch and a new higher composite part wing are not mutually exclusive. The better the SFC of the engin...

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by Taxi645
Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Next A330 Neo orders....
Replies: 217
Views: 56125

Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

or modifications on A350-1000 with a tiny stretch of 1-2 meters with higher MTOW and newer more efficient engines to replace the old A350-1000. I wonder what range an ultrafan A350-1000, with 900 MTOW, wing and MLG would have? Would be close to 8.000Nm I reckon. With ultrafan efficiency I don't exp...

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by Taxi645
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR
Replies: 595
Views: 94825

Re: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Regardless, none of it works if the 380 doesn't get the Ultrafan in a timely manner...and really I don't think RR can pull it off. As said, why would Airbus and EK go through all this trouble building and buying a plane past it's competitive cycle at a trickle rate to bridge the gap to ultrafan and...

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by Taxi645
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR
Replies: 595
Views: 94825

Re: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

The reason Emirates has not gone for densification (X11 @18"Y) is because they can't fill what they've already got - look at the load factors.Indeed with their fourth coming launch of Premium class they will be reducing seat numbers.No one needs a bigger A380. Emirates stopped asking for one a...

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by Taxi645
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR
Replies: 595
Views: 94825

Re: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

In my view this deal is designed to stretch to the ultrafan including possible delays. Why bother otherwise? Of course EK wanted Airbus to get more airlines in so they didn't have to carry that burden on their own. Well, no one was interested, so now there seems to be some pushing and shoving by eac...

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by Taxi645
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR
Replies: 595
Views: 94825

Re: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

https://leehamnews.com/2018/12/06/is-th ... more-28785
-->

Seems the good folks at Leeham haven't given up completely on the A380 after all. Perhaps if we ask nicely they'd be willing to put a stretched ultrafan NEO through their performance model as well.

https://leehamnews.com/2018/12/06/is-th ... more-28785

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by Taxi645
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..
Replies: 211
Views: 32770

Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

I wonder if a new fuselage for an A320 replacement would provide enough improvement to justify the expense. What would it bring that the current fuselage can't. New wingbox and wing I can understand though.

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by Taxi645
Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..
Replies: 211
Views: 32770

Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Please stay on topic folks and avoid the usual boring A vs B stuff.

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by Taxi645
Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR
Replies: 595
Views: 94825

Re: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Odds are, the 350 will get the Ultra, GE will have PIP'd the heck out of the GE9X and undoubtedly trickled down some tech into the GEnx, so while the 380 would get more efficient...so would the competition This is a point that often get's brought up and apparently continously needs to get debunkend...

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by Taxi645
Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR
Replies: 595
Views: 94825

Re: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

The engine I would look at, is the Trent Advanced. It would have a redesigned core, that is at it is tested in a XWB core, and I assume the new composite lighter fan, that is tested in front of an T1000. That engine could be ready around 2023-24, with no application in sight, but reegining, perhaps...

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by Taxi645
Sun Dec 02, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR
Replies: 595
Views: 94825

Re: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

The engine I would look at, is the Trent Advanced. It would have a redesigned core, that is at it is tested in a XWB core, and I assume the new composite lighter fan, that is tested in front of an T1000. That engine could be ready around 2023-24, with no application in sight, but reegining, perhaps...

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by Taxi645
Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR
Replies: 595
Views: 94825

Re: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR

Or moderation reckoned it didn't require a new thread...? Anyway, as said, if Emirates are putting pressure on Airbus to commit to an A380NEO now I reckon they won't succeed. Not before there is a decision from Boeing on the NMA and before the fallout of BREXIT becomes clear and strategical adjustme...

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by Taxi645
Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A340 with two GE90’s.
Replies: 84
Views: 21034

Re: A340 with two GE90’s.

Nice try of history revision. We are talking here about the mid eighties. Boeing is bringing it's new model quad 747-400 EIS 1989, best selling model of the 747 line. ETOPS is just starting with ETOPS 120, first ETOPS 180 flight in 1889. The decision to build the A340 is done before ETOPS is establ...

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by Taxi645
Sun Nov 25, 2018 10:55 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: What would an A350NEO look like?
Replies: 5
Views: 2502

Re: What would an A350NEO look like?

As I've argued before the A350 is on the heavy side for it's wingspan, A359 and 788 have the lowest span loading for any widebody out there, even when including the 77X in the comparison. How did you conclude that it's heavy for its span?. The A330NEO is much lower for instance. If not for the 65m ...

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by Taxi645
Sun Nov 25, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: What would an A350NEO look like?
Replies: 5
Views: 2502

What would an A350NEO look like?

The Bloomberg article hinted at the A350NEO: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-21/airbus-reveals-plans-for-all-new-narrow-body-re-engined-a350 What would an A350NEO actually look like? As I've argued before the A350 is on the heavy side for it's wingspan, especially for past 2025 stand...

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by Taxi645
Sun Nov 25, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A340 with two GE90’s.
Replies: 84
Views: 21034

Re: A340 with two GE90’s.

Hello Hendric, thank you for your well supported post giving more substance to the discussion. Sorry to reply so late, I'm not always in a position to reply in a timely manner. I will also admit that of course hindsight is easy. I think the A340-300 was still the right call at that moment in time. H...

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by Taxi645
Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A340 with two GE90’s.
Replies: 84
Views: 21034

Re: A340 with two GE90’s.

http://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1381101 http://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1378023&p=19942033#p19942033 I think the A340-300 was still the right call at that moment in time. However the 200 wasn't (even though it was very cheap). Instead they should've ...

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by Taxi645
Mon Nov 05, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Just to illustrate the point a bit further. I reckon a ~205T MTOW A330 successor with a 58-60m wingspan would require around 57.000-59.000 lbf. A 505T MTOW ultrafan A380NEO with plus-style winglets would probably be around 60.000-64.000 lbf. That would be close enough to not meaningfully compromise ...

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by Taxi645
Fri Nov 02, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Well with today's news the subject of the thread became more relevant again. I think Airbus chose the lesser of two evil's. I think in a year or two we will know what the long term future for the A380 will look like. Airbus didn't choose anything. Emirates and RR came to an agreement -- the questio...

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by Taxi645
Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Indeed that is the "short term" issue. Yet, not an issue you can solve with a non closing business case... Yet they keep having "digestible losses" for each A380 they are making, by definition a non-closing business case. It's really about what your corporate imperatives are. Cu...

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by Taxi645
Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

So a new engine with just a very small SFC improvement, which doesn't enable addressing any of the issues which have been hampering the A380 from the beginning, to enable another new engine just 8 years or so later? https://i1.wp.com/leehamnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/a380neo-engine-specs.jp...

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by Taxi645
Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

So a new engine with just a very small SFC improvement, which doesn't enable addressing any of the issues which have been hampering the A380 from the beginning, to enable another new engine just 8 years or so later? https://i1.wp.com/leehamnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/a380neo-engine-specs.jp...

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by Taxi645
Thu Oct 25, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

The above also goes for any engine based on the Trent 1000/7000 but more strongly. The fuel savings from that engine would by far not be enough to address the issues which plague the A380CEO increasingly since launch, which are the result of trying to squeeze a 10/8 tube within a 80m wingspan, yet ...

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by Taxi645
Wed Oct 24, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

A NEO 2-3 years ago just didn't make sense. 2-3 years ago is right when A330neo was being mooted. Doing A380neo instead or in parallel would have bought EK's undying admiration and a solid launch order (at least these 20 and probably more), perhaps a tranche of SQ renewals instead of 777Xs, maybe B...

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by Taxi645
Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:19 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

I'll add one more consideration. The only way I can see them not stretching the NEO would be when the weight saving of not doing a small stretch would be critical to make a significant amount of laminar flow work on a new wing. If the drag/economics improvement would be equal or close to the CASM re...

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by Taxi645
Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Since nobody has yet to put seats in a 380 that reach it's design maximum, nor has anyone bitten at the proposed 11-abreast additional capacity, I don't see the need for a 380 stretch. If current potential capacity hasn't been exploited, then why would an even larger potential capacity be considere...

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by Taxi645
Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

In general the A380CEO was a good but not a great plane when it was launched. Not a great plane like the 787 or A350 for instance. To put a 10 plus 8 tube (you could argue 11/9 even) within an 80m wingspan with the engine tech at that time meant rhere were some serious compromises. The A380-800 was ...

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by Taxi645
Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:13 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Personalliy I think Airbus will wait with any A380NEO/stretch deciscion till Boeing has decided on the NMA for two reasons: 1 They will know where Boeing resources (financial, R&D etc.) will be committed too in the relevant period. 2 When knowing the NMA offering they can define the specificati...

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by Taxi645
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Personalliy I think Airbus will wait with any A380NEO/stretch deciscion till Boeing has decided on the NMA for two reasons: 1 They will know where Boeing resources (financial, R&D etc.) will be committed too in the relevant period. 2 When knowing the NMA offering they can define the specificatio...

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by Taxi645
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR
Replies: 595
Views: 94825

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

I agree with the upsizing theory. But why should it end with the 777-9 and not go beyound? Don't know if the A380 will be that aircraft but something bigger than a twin 777-9 (and I am not talking about some possible 777-10X) is entirely plausible to me. The market keeps growing. There would be a b...

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by Taxi645
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:09 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

What is important is the actual thrust requirement. As said above if they match up or not depends on the design definition of both the twin and the quad. That is only part of the equation. However, you are correct for this part of the equation. The other part is that for a low production number air...

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by Taxi645
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:49 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

The issue is the core will need to be able to 100% of the twin's needs at V1 to handle the engine out scenario, whereas in the quad scenario it will only need to handle 33.3% of the (admittedly much larger) needs of the quad. The engine ends up being built for the bigger market of the twins, the qu...

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by Taxi645
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

The A330 replacement will probably a ~205T MTOW widebody to give it the range (early A330 range) and capacity needed to sit at the upper end of the MoM nicely between an A321XLR capability plane and the A350-900. The required thrust range for that plane will be very close to a 505T MTOW A380NEO. Th...

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by Taxi645
Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:31 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR
Replies: 595
Views: 94825

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

[The 748i is dead. Boeing basically said it outright. but your forgetting that the entirety of the 747 line lasted 50 somewhat years while the A380 line, in its entirely, will most likely be DOA in less than 15 years. Who cares? I’m not a big fan of the A380, but the vitriol people have for this ai...

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by Taxi645
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Sir Tim Clark: Emirates next batches of A380s will be powered by RR
Replies: 595
Views: 94825

Re: Bloomberg: A380-Saving Emirates Deal Is Stalled Due to Engine Impasse

It was not a deal made in heaven. Sounds like someone is getting cold feet and is trying to renegotiate their end through a third party and see what gives.

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by Taxi645
Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:16 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

I once made the below table based on the Leeham article. Your table kills your thesis: putting a new wing on and/or stretching the A380 for 11% per-seat fuel burn advantage over 777-9 would be futile. Nearly as misguided as the original A380 launch decision. Well -15% for equal seating density and ...

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by Taxi645
Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Anyone willing to spend a grain of imagination and do some rough calculations will admit that is not neccessarily the same for an A380NEO vs the 777x. With an A380NEO there would be a significant CASM gap. The question is just if the gap would be large enough to justify the investment. The A350 was...

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by Taxi645
Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

The market has made it very clear that there is only a limited market for an aircraft the size of the A380 or larger at this time and for the foreseeable future. The market has made very clear that there is only a limited market for the A380 as is. A plane that has no CASM advantage over it's neare...

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by Taxi645
Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:16 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

$3 billion wouldn’t come close—double that, at least. GF If I do some rough math, based on A330 NEO and 777x updates, I would come to between $3,5-4,3 billion for Matt's 900 proposal (that excludes rear bulkhead redesign), My 505T MTOW 850 (75m), proposal I would get to between $6,3-6,8 billion. Ei...

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by Taxi645
Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

In addition to the above responses, is being a quad an inherent liability for the 380? We know what happened to the 340 & 747, too, with scant orders for the 345/6 and 748, in favor of the 330/neo, 350, 777 and 787. Actually in a few years being a quad may actually be an advantage to the A380 i...

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by Taxi645
Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 22641

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

A possible A380-850: https://i.postimg.cc/3N7Ln9xR/A380-850_75m_2.jpg - Mini stretch to lower CASM and together with landing gear reconfiguration allowing an extra row of containers. - Ultrafan engines (enabling tremendous fuel load saving for the same range, enabling a weight saving loop of unprec...

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by Taxi645
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Eindhoven Airport at its limits
Replies: 17
Views: 2730

Re: Eindhoven Airport at its limits

Railroad connection to EIN could be better as well for future growth.

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by Taxi645
Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)
Replies: 327
Views: 33034

Re: The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)

You are absolutely right that Boeing themselves have always been very clear that the NMA is not a done deal, and may never be. But those who view planemakers at football teams to be cheered and booed seem to often miss that nuance. "Fanboyism" is just a property/defect that has served it'...

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by Taxi645
Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Which Frame Will Be More Efficient....The A35J or the 779?
Replies: 299
Views: 33553

Re: Which Frame Will Be More Efficient....The A35J or the 779?

@Taxi645 - moving lift inboard increases induced drag. For example, when one models wingtip devices as extensions to span, one is just tracking the effect of the revised (outward) lift distribution versus a wing of equal span with the baseline distribution. There's not much point to building a long...

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by Taxi645
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:07 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Which Frame Will Be More Efficient....The A35J or the 779?
Replies: 299
Views: 33553

Re: Which Frame Will Be More Efficient....The A35J or the 779?

@Taxi645 - moving lift inboard increases induced drag. For example, when one models wingtip devices as extensions to span, one is just tracking the effect of the revised (outward) lift distribution versus a wing of equal span with the baseline distribution. There's not much point to building a long...

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by Taxi645
Wed Aug 22, 2018 5:48 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Which Frame Will Be More Efficient....The A35J or the 779?
Replies: 299
Views: 33553

Re: Which Frame Will Be More Efficient....The A35J or the 779?

The weight delta is span delta^3 is assuming the span load distribution is constant. Is there a remote possibility that Boeing is using the extra span made possible through the folding wings and composite construction to move away slightly from the standard elliptical load distribution to a distribu...

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by Taxi645
Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Aspect ratio vs span loading in induced drag calculations
Replies: 12
Views: 1827

Re: Aspect ratio vs span loading in induced drag calculations

viewtopic.php?t=1379311

Perhaps these two can be merged.
-->

viewtopic.php?t=1379311

Perhaps these two can be merged.

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