Search found 340 matches

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by Taxi645
Fri Apr 21, 2017 5:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus MoM / NMA / A310 replacement, 2025?
Replies: 152
Views: 20267

Re: Airbus MoM / NMA / A310 replacement, 2025?

It would have to be an A330 replacement which would provide better separation from the A350. But Airbus is not in any hurry to develop another aircraft right now, as the CEO has stated, they are enjoying the ROI profits from present products. Indeed. By 2025 the relevant gap is between the A320 and...

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by Taxi645
Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?
Replies: 541
Views: 64232

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

Here's where I most significantly disagree. You appear to give only ~2% L/D improvement. That's far too small for a rewing that would reduce total wetted area by at least 10% between wing, empennage, and engines. Simple suggestion for handy trip-fuel estimator: Use the Breguet range equation. https...

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by Taxi645
Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:30 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?
Replies: 541
Views: 64232

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

* More and higher volume suitable routes This doesn't necessarily follow from traffic growth. Even between the largest global cities, the majority of longhaul traffic is not O&D. If traffic growth causes a proliferation of point-point options and of other connecting options, the overall effect ...

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by Taxi645
Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?
Replies: 541
Views: 64232

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

A 2025EIS will bring no engine worthy to re-engine the 787/A330NEO. That is something for an EIS after 2030. The engine alone must bring clearly over10% improvement (net improvement). To achieve this compared to the Trent 7000/ Ten you are looking at ALECSYS technology level engines. http://cleansk...

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by Taxi645
Wed Apr 12, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?
Replies: 541
Views: 64232

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

A380-800NEO (new wing) So let's take the current 575T MTOW. -39T reduction in fuel load from -15% SFC (ultrafan). -12T from a new wing designed for the new much lower MTOW. -3T from the empennage -3T from the MLG -5T from other weight optimizations from further detail work and 25 year technology im...

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by Taxi645
Wed Apr 12, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?
Replies: 541
Views: 64232

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

I'll add one more point to the floor area utilisation vs yields discussion. Ask yourself if a low cost long haul passenger will have the same criteria in regards to cabin experience as the average current passenger. I think most can figure out the answer to that and A380NEO fuel burn per seat mile c...

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by Taxi645
Wed Apr 12, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?
Replies: 541
Views: 64232

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

Generally people tend to get hung up too much about what is and have troubling imagining what can be. If we compare a roughly 2025 EIS A380NEO with the EIS of the A380CEO: Aviation growth/Market: * More and higher volume suitable routes * More congestion (of course congestion issues don't only get s...

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by Taxi645
Wed Apr 12, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?
Replies: 541
Views: 64232

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

Also from the now-closed thread, we had: Taxi645 wrote: 1 A reasonably efficient fuselage layout which has recently gained a 9% improvement in floor area utilization (without compromising comfort) and a 15% increase in floor area utilization with reducing seat width but still well on the good side ...

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by Taxi645
Sun Apr 09, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: A380NEO: Revisions And BizCase Unclear,2020-25EIS
Replies: 282
Views: 23371

Re: A380NEO: Revisions And BizCase Unclear,2020-25EIS

I find the following line always amusing: “that's basically a new plane”. If you're redesigning an aircraft (or product) you do the changes that makes sense in light of the current and future market and try to optimize the use of available resources. Sometimes it's smarter to keep changes as limited...

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by Taxi645
Sun Apr 09, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: A380NEO: Revisions And BizCase Unclear,2020-25EIS
Replies: 282
Views: 23371

Re: A380NEO: Revisions And BizCase Unclear,2020-25EIS

For what it's worth, here's a animated GIF of what a 17% reduction in wing and empennage area would more or less look like (more or less reduction is possible of course depending on eventual MOTW and wing loading). http://i.makeagif.com/media/4-09-2017/yOvMah.gif I know technically it doesn't hold m...

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by Taxi645
Tue Apr 04, 2017 6:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'
Replies: 1034
Views: 197778

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

So basicly 80 (!?!) seats can be added will smaller changes and kept comfort level? What has Airbus been doing until recent? If I interpret the article correctly it's 47 seats without adjusting seat width and 81 with narrowing the seat width (9 and 11-abreat) compared to the original configuration....

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by Taxi645
Sat Mar 25, 2017 5:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Responds to Boeing MoM launch '17/'18, Not?
Replies: 169
Views: 26172

Re: Airbus Responds to Boeing MoM launch '17/'18, Not?

I reckon Airbus response could be from the bottom and from the top. Sure they say they don't need to do anything, but any average company will tell you to buy what they've got till they got the next thing. I reckon they will do a GTF A330 replacement 2nd half of the next decade and share the engine ...

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by Taxi645
Fri Mar 24, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'
Replies: 1034
Views: 197778

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

I am seeing "GTF-powered A380" mentionned here and there, but I don't believe that if you scale up the PW GTF, it would be any more efficient than a Trent XWB. CFM were able to match the GTF 's efficiency by scaling down a high BPR widebody engine. Besides, the GTF has a shaft speed probl...

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by Taxi645
Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'
Replies: 1034
Views: 197778

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

I wouldn't hold out much hope for EK's sustenance of this program to continue. They are currently conducting a fleet review, a result of which could be cancellation of big orders (including for the 777X). http://leehamnews.com/2017/03/20/major-fleet-decisions-may-not-positive-airbus-boeing/#more-22...

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by Taxi645
Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'
Replies: 1034
Views: 197778

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

Indeed it is. The most underrated aspect is the removal of the UD side bins to allow for more J seats in reverse herringbone configuration. That makes the upper deck nearly equal to 777 width for J capacity. Big deal. ...which goes again to the strategic errors of this program. The new stairs optio...

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by Taxi645
Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: BeNeLux aviation - 2017 (# 7)
Replies: 154
Views: 20899

Re: BeNeLux Aviation # 7

That's quite a strong growth for Eindhoven. At this rate I wonder how long the infrastructure (airport itself and surroundings) will remain sufficient.

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by Taxi645
Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'
Replies: 1034
Views: 197778

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

Sure but everything you're saying here is encompassed by my point that it's about marginal revenue and marginal cost, and about where the A380 typically sits on a generalized curve relating marginal revenue and marginal cost. Most of the time it is not a good strategy to trade space for seat count,...

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by Taxi645
Wed Mar 22, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Responds to Boeing MoM launch '17/'18, Not?
Replies: 169
Views: 26172

Re: Airbus Responds to Boeing MoM launch '17/'18, Not?

BTW, nice marketing name for a rewinged A320 as a fast to market response to a clean sheet Boeing MoM proposal:

A320NOW (New Optional Wing).


:P

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by Taxi645
Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'
Replies: 1034
Views: 197778

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

The A380 has a history of underusing it's cabin floor area Folks here often say this. The question is - why did airlines under-utilize the space by nominal seat count? It's not as if airlines overlook space in airliners, after all. Rather, it seems more likely that A380's typically occupy a portion...

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by Taxi645
Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:55 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A330 fuselage stretch ever considered?
Replies: 123
Views: 23052

Re: A330 fuselage stretch ever considered?

In the long run having a program below the A350 that has only 10% lower MOTW doesn't seem like an well allocated way to address the market. For now it works for them, but I reckon with the possible arrival of a GTF in the required thrust range in the second half of the next decade and the fuel weig...

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by Taxi645
Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A330 fuselage stretch ever considered?
Replies: 123
Views: 23052

Re: A330 fuselage stretch ever considered?

Leahy: Looking at 251t A330neo, range “up over 7,000nm.” https://mobile.twitter.com/jonostrower/status/838818272849993731 "Encrouching" the A350 space apparently is low on Leahy' fear list.. 251t, plus 9t, could give a -1000 limited range fall. At 251t MTOW, the A330 is still significant ...

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by Taxi645
Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'
Replies: 1034
Views: 197778

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

The A380 has a history of underusing it's cabin floor area (as many have argumented here for quite some time). The mega orders from Emirates made this less of a problem and probably sussed Airbus to sleep a bit. So when the orders from Emirates ended they suddenly woke up to the reality that the big...

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by Taxi645
Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: An Airbus 8-abreast MOM/A330 replacement?
Replies: 36
Views: 6869

Re: An Airbus 8-abreast MOM/A330 replacement?

Using the existing A330 fuselage would have enormous advantages. And have very significant drawbacks as well. At a certain point you can say you have done your part, after more than 50 years of service it might be time for a design for the next 25-40 years. Basically what we're seeing is that the 2...

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by Taxi645
Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: An Airbus 8-abreast MOM/A330 replacement?
Replies: 36
Views: 6869

Re: An Airbus 8-abreast MOM/A330 replacement?

There really isn't any point in hashing out the exact same concept. I mean, it's nice you did the same work we did in metric units, but it is quite redundant. Why don't we just add Airbus to the other thread and discuss any differences in what their answer might be? I see your point. I appreciate t...

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by Taxi645
Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: An Airbus 8-abreast MOM/A330 replacement?
Replies: 36
Views: 6869

Re: An Airbus 8-abreast MOM/A330 replacement?

How would the narrower fuselage handle LD3's? I suppose stringers are getting flatter and the composite frames are getting thinner and maybe you could lose some off the floor beams. 14cm though? 2.5-3'' each side? Good question. I ended up at 5,5m because I suspected with todays fuselage tech it wo...

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by Taxi645
Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: An Airbus 8-abreast MOM/A330 replacement?
Replies: 36
Views: 6869

Re: An Airbus 8-abreast MOM/A330 replacement?

What would be your opinion on such a proposal? Would it be a viable approach? In what configuration would it be competitive as both a MOM as well as a A330 successor if at all? I'm sure it's a very thoughtful calculation, and there'll be great dialogue on it, but I don't know if I can take another ...

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by Taxi645
Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: An Airbus 8-abreast MOM/A330 replacement?
Replies: 36
Views: 6869

An Airbus 8-abreast MOM/A330 replacement?

An Airbus 8-abreast MOM/A330 replacement? There is a lot of talk about a possible Boeing widebody MOM airliner. A lot of discussion focuses on 7-abreast, however 7-abreast is a lot less efficient than a 6-abreast single aisle plane. 8-abreast makes better use of it's double aisles and is still well ...

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by Taxi645
Sun Mar 12, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'
Replies: 1034
Views: 197778

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

For what it's worth I agree with your logic completely. But not inside the 80m box. Not without folding tips. And even then the plane will still break 80m on the runway - where separation between runway and taxiways could well be an issue for a number of airports. Rgds That's might be one of the di...

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by Taxi645
Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus product planning next decade
Replies: 0
Views: 781

Airbus product planning next decade

Ok a bit from the fantasy lala land, but if look at some of the Airbus concepts people have been talking about the past few years and we try to cram them all in a future product planning schedule, what would be looking at? I gave it a shot. It's not all realistic, well thought out or well calculated...

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by Taxi645
Wed Mar 08, 2017 6:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?
Replies: 541
Views: 64232

Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

You know that's an interesting point and one that rarely comes up vis-a-vis the A380 re-engining efforts. I'm sure Lightsaber will know more about this, but I think you're right that in general new engine tech needs to be matured on mid-sized examples before it can safely be scaled up for the top e...

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by Taxi645
Sun Mar 05, 2017 9:36 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?
Replies: 541
Views: 64232

Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

One thing to consider is that one advantage a 4 hauler like the A380 might have over the big twins is than an ultrafan type engine is perhaps easier to scale to the required size and integrate than it would on a big twin and therefore it could profit from the ultrafan like SFC advantage for quite a ...

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by Taxi645
Sun Mar 05, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A330 fuselage stretch ever considered?
Replies: 123
Views: 23052

Re: A330 fuselage stretch ever considered?

I wonder why Airbus didn't increased fuselage length neither with the A350 Mk. 1 nor with the NEO? As said earlier the A330-200 has served it's purpose, but it's has been a while already since the smaller variant sold comparable numbers compared to it's larger sibling. Wouldn't it have been smart to...

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by Taxi645
Mon Feb 27, 2017 5:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?
Replies: 541
Views: 64232

Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Well, as I've already said, I see no justification for a complete wing redesign - and (I'll say it again) CFRP is not some magical pixie-dust which renders metal structures obsolete. There's no reason to go CFRP unless you're designing a clean sheet aircraft - and even then it would still need to p...

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by Taxi645
Sun Feb 26, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?
Replies: 541
Views: 64232

Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

I asked ROI a new CRFP wing. Investment: E6-7 Billion ? Development time 7 years? Boeing probably knows how much the 777X wing costs. With it's new factory / supply chain. They got a $8.7 billion tax package for it in Washington. For a 0.2% weight saving.. New engines, aero improvements, wing tips ...

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by Taxi645
Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?
Replies: 541
Views: 64232

Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

A380-800NEO (new wing) So let's take the current 575T MTOW. -35T reduction in fuel load from -15% SFC (ultrafan). -10T from a new CFRP wing designed for the new much lower MTOW. -12T from other weight optimizations from further detail work, 25 year technology improvement and again the much lower MO...

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by Taxi645
Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?
Replies: 541
Views: 64232

Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

ROI anyone? You should ask yourself what RR gets from this. Overall, I'm not seeing where all the money comes for this. If you pull 30 CEOs out of the potential 100 NEO order by EK you only have 70 frames to recover RR's costs for an entirely new generation of engine, along with Airbus's expenses t...

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by Taxi645
Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?
Replies: 541
Views: 64232

Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Ok I will give it a shot. Yes the calculation will not be very high standard, but since I'm no aero engineer that is to be expected. So let's take the current 575T MTOW. -35T reduction in fuel load from -15% SFC (ultrafan). -10T from a new CFRP wing designed for the new much lower MTOW. -10T from ot...

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by Taxi645
Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?
Replies: 541
Views: 64232

Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

About bridging the gap to 2025. Say they would launch a Ultrafan NEO around 2019, wouldn't it be a likely possibility to make a 20-30 batch of CEO's part of a NEO deal with EK? That would be 2-3 years worth of production. I could even imagine Airbus selling the CEO's at a slight loss to sweeten the ...

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by Taxi645
Fri Feb 24, 2017 7:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?
Replies: 541
Views: 64232

Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Btw I see posts where members say I think an A380 upgrade should have new wings. I don't. Some further optimization, new engines, wingtips seem sufficient. Just like other midlife upgrades (777W, 330NEO, 764, 320NEO, 744). About the wings, let's try to assess the situation a bit more. Airlines alre...

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by Taxi645
Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?
Replies: 541
Views: 64232

Re: Airbus A380 MidLife Upgrade, 2021?

Expensive option: (not plausible the next 10 years imho.) - New next-gen engines - Stretch to a -900 size variant - Introduce cargo variant based on the -800 (Yes, this takes major redesign of many parts, strengthening lower deck, replacing upper deck, added cargo doors and an internal cargo lift. ...

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