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by Brickell305
Fri May 29, 2020 10:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

https://www.liat.com/liat-extends-suspe ... -june-30th

This is gonna be very rough going to get LI up and running again.
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LI has extended the suspension of commercial services until June 30.

https://www.liat.com/liat-extends-suspe ... -june-30th

This is gonna be very rough going to get LI up and running again.

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by Brickell305
Fri May 29, 2020 10:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 1950
Views: 244218

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Load factor of 57% out of MIA? I’ve been flying 2-3 x per week in May and the number of low load flights I’ve been on is essentially zero in and out of MIA, including this fully loaded 738 from PHL I’m on now. Which is a good example of why we should always defer to actual data instead of anecdotal...

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by Brickell305
Thu May 28, 2020 8:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

The government of Antigua and Barbuda is planning to make (temporary?) changes to the Labor Code to suspend the requirement to pay severance to employees when laid off. LI employees are of the opinion that this is targeted directly at them. https://268today.com/business/liat-employees-fear-mass-term...

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by Brickell305
Thu May 28, 2020 5:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA staff layoffs coming
Replies: 86
Views: 13380

Re: AA staff layoffs coming

American started its CH11 restructuring in Nov 2011, and would have emerged with or without a merger. The AA/US merger wasn't announced until Feb 2013. The plan at the time from an AA standpoint was that AA would emerge as an independent entity then consider a merger with USAir (rumors of B6) with ...

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by Brickell305
Thu May 28, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

The major problem is that the Caribbean governments have still not figured out how and when to open up their borders to regional traffic let alone international traffic. I do believe that they are painfully aware of the highly predictable negative consequences of lockdown and that they cannot affor...

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by Brickell305
Sun May 24, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: OAG Changes 5/24/2020:The Summer of George;DL Hacks July;AS Adds DEN-PDX,FAT-LAX,GEG-SJC, Suspends JFK-LAX Till Fall
Replies: 100
Views: 17344

Re: OAG Changes 5/24/2020:The Summer of George;DL Hacks July;AS Adds DEN-PDX,FAT-LAX,GEG-SJC, Suspends JFK-LAX Till Fall

maverick4002 wrote:
BW FLL-POS JUN 0.7>0.2[0.9]
BW GEO-JFK JUN 1.0>0.3[1.4]
BW JFK-POS JUN 2>0.8[2]
BW MCO-POS JUN 0.4>0.1[0.4]
BW MIA-POS JUN 1.0>0.3[1.0

When are these scheduled to start back? I had seen that JFK was July 15 so I am wondering.

Borders remain closed in Trinidad through at least July.

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by Brickell305
Sat May 23, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: British Airways network updates
Replies: 316
Views: 54486

Re: BA cancels LHR-CHS for rest of 2020

Just don’t see it myself. We’ll have a recession like 2008 for sure but BA still flew the vast majority of their schedule. You’ll be surprised how quickly things will come back. I think, honestly that’s delusional. BA are cutting 12,000 staff. This isn’t like 2001 or 2008. Is that just like how the...

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by Brickell305
Fri May 22, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South Florida Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 157
Views: 13737

Re: South Florida Aviation Thread - 2020

I went on their website to look at prices. It's seems as though I could only book a one way on a Sunday MIA/PBI but no return. $29 o/w. I guess one could take Tri Rail back but Tri Rail currently isn't running on weekends. According to their website, Tri-Rail is running on weekends, however it's on...

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by Brickell305
Thu May 21, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 431
Views: 74503

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2020

Good news from WN today: LFs & bookings topping expectations Net positive bookings through May 18 LF expected to be 35-45% for June which is impressive given they are only cutting capacity by 45% Cash burn down to $20M by June, enough cash on hand for nearly 2 years https://www.marketwatch.com/...

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by Brickell305
Thu May 21, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Jamaican Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 43
Views: 6049

Re: Jamaican Aviation Thread - 2020

https://www.passengerterminaltoday.com/ ... elers.html

That applies to Europe, China and Iran. It does not include the Caribbean.
-->

BW985 wrote:
Could it because FLL is still not allowed to receive international flight?

https://www.passengerterminaltoday.com/ ... elers.html

That applies to Europe, China and Iran. It does not include the Caribbean.

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by Brickell305
Wed May 20, 2020 12:07 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

SKB is a radically different island than is BGI. One island is mountainous and peaceful (and offers a built in multi destination product that is just a ferry ride away) and the other is highly developed in its tourist product with the large numbers of visitors that you would expect. Now why do you ...

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by Brickell305
Tue May 19, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 1950
Views: 244218

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

There is just no business demand to Europe and Asia for a while. What are these Mexico/Caribbean widebodies that you speak off that can so easily be moved? How many 788 deliveries can they take when they have no cash? DL & UA displacements have already come out. They are both probably 30% small...

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by Brickell305
Tue May 19, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 1950
Views: 244218

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Just checked some schedules for AA's restart of Eastern Caribbean ops out of MIA and noted that ANU, BGI, GND and UVF all have unconventional schedules. Flights leave MIA at 20:00 or later, overnight at each island and the return is at 13:00 or later the next day, arriving at MIA between 16:00 and 1...

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by Brickell305
Sun May 17, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned
Replies: 138
Views: 15841

Re: OAG Changes 5/17/2020: UNRAVELING; DL Leaves CAK/MHT/PHF/SWF/CZM w/No Resumption Planned

Quieter this week, but we know Delta finished their long term plan this week. First bits are falling out. Much more to come I bet. UA and AA will be next. Lots of stations will be closed permanently. Doubt this is final for anyone. I’m seeing places like GCM, POS, etc. with numbers above 0 in June ...

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by Brickell305
Sun May 17, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 1950
Views: 244218

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

chonetsao wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Additionally, all flights to LHR will be on the 772/77W now.


Wouldn't ORD to LHR remain B788/789?

That also switches to 772.

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by Brickell305
Sun May 17, 2020 1:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

The Caribbean previously had robust financial services, killed off by the Europeans, the UK took advantage of the tourist sector with its APD tax, as one minister said, the tax to the region was higher than to Vegas in the USA because, BA was the primary player and could charge it. One aspect of Ca...

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by Brickell305
Sat May 16, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Jamaican Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 43
Views: 6049

Re: Jamaican Aviation Thread - 2020

Well, as expected the airport is like a ghost town. Thankfully for IBC Airways and FedEx Feeder come by but that's basically it. And since Wednesday night, April 1st, we've been under nightly curfew which lasts from 8pm - 6am. Talk about the deafening silence. Not much has transpired within our ind...

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by Brickell305
Thu May 14, 2020 4:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Although parts of South America are close to the Caribbean there has never been much demand between the two for air travel. So, if BW wants to expand internationally it has to make POS a hub. But the problem is that there is no shortage of non-stop flights between the big travel markets of SA and n...

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by Brickell305
Wed May 13, 2020 5:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 1505
Views: 191965

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

You do realize that's not what people are saying here right? Did you miss the part where I said FLL/MCO/SJU won't be back to pre-COVID size for another 3 or 4 years? This is about remaking your network to take advantage of a rare opening in NYC and possibly BOS. I don't see how bringing back JFK/LG...

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by Brickell305
Wed May 13, 2020 2:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 1505
Views: 191965

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

It’s understandable for those who work at B6. It’s hard to face the reality that your company and ergo your job may not be secure. Also, there is the inner fanboy in most people in this thread who desire for their preferred airline to conquer all. I agree that reality hasn’t sunk in for most yet. E...

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by Brickell305
Tue May 12, 2020 8:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 1505
Views: 191965

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

I think some of us are getting ahead of ourselves here. What makes people think that if there's a recovery only JetBlue will be in a position to do anything? They, like all the other airlines, are going to have less planes, less people and less money when this pandemic is over. It’s understandable ...

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by Brickell305
Tue May 12, 2020 1:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

VS has announced their plans for the 2021 season. They intend to serve all current Caribbean destinations. ANU, BGI, GND, MBJ, TAB will be served from LHR. BGI will also be served from MAN. https://www.godsavethepoints.com/virgin-atlantic-2021-flight-schedule/ There goes all the pessimists pontific...

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by Brickell305
Tue May 12, 2020 1:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

https://www.godsavethepoints.com/virgin ... -schedule/
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VS has announced their plans for the 2021 season. They intend to serve all current Caribbean destinations. ANU, BGI, GND, MBJ, TAB will be served from LHR. BGI will also be served from MAN.

https://www.godsavethepoints.com/virgin ... -schedule/

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by Brickell305
Mon May 11, 2020 11:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

LI would not be able to relaunch STX. Not only does a category 2 classification stop them from adding new service, it also stops them from increasing existing service. https://www.faa.gov/travelers/international_travel/ Doesn't LIAT's existing route rights to STX count as "existing service&quo...

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by Brickell305
Mon May 11, 2020 9:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

The only US route LI would be looking to (re)start anytime soon is STX. I doubt that would have occurred post-COVID anyway. I doubt the COVID related suspensions of SJU and STT preclude LI from restarting. LI should still be able to launch STX, if they choose to do so post-shutdown, as they already...

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by Brickell305
Mon May 11, 2020 5:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/news ... eptember-1
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Cayman Islands has extended its border closure to September 1.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/news ... eptember-1

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by Brickell305
Sun May 10, 2020 7:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Avianca has filed for Chapter 11
Replies: 65
Views: 14911

Re: Avianca has filed for Chapter 11

https://whtc.com/news/articles/2020/may ... n=business

I believe UA already wrote those loans off in Q1 2020.
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FlyinRabbit88 wrote:
“United stands to lose up to $700 million in loans related to Avianca.” Ouch!!!

https://whtc.com/news/articles/2020/may ... n=business

I believe UA already wrote those loans off in Q1 2020.

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by Brickell305
Fri May 08, 2020 10:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

U.S. FAA downgrades safety rating of Eastern Caribbean aviation system rating The Federal Aviation Administration said Friday it had downgraded the safety rating for the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), a move that means carriers from those island nations cannot start new service. h...

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by Brickell305
Fri May 08, 2020 8:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - May 2020
Replies: 184
Views: 25355

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - May 2020

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/2020/05/08/after-win-at-united-labor-looks-to-change-delta-and-jetblue-cares-act-policies/amp/ After Win At United, Labor Looks To Change Delta And JetBlue CARES Act Policies A win at United Airlines has labor unions seeking similar gains at Delta and JetBlue. On...

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by Brickell305
Fri May 08, 2020 2:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 1950
Views: 244218

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

UA should just suck it up for a little and do MIA, PHL, BOS - LHR before transferring the routes to EWR, LAX, SFO. DL is much more likely to be the airline that goes after both MIA and BOS. I doubt anyone takes up PHL. It specifically said added competition and delta provides no added competition g...

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by Brickell305
Fri May 08, 2020 12:48 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 1950
Views: 244218

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Nicknuzzii wrote:
UA should just suck it up for a little and do MIA, PHL, BOS - LHR before transferring the routes to EWR, LAX, SFO.

DL is much more likely to be the airline that goes after both MIA and BOS. I doubt anyone takes up PHL.

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by Brickell305
Wed May 06, 2020 8:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

embraer175e2 wrote:
When will BA restart flights to Pos?

Currently scheduled for July 2.

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by Brickell305
Wed May 06, 2020 8:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - May 2020
Replies: 184
Views: 25355

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - May 2020

tphuang wrote:
Is this a situation where UA cannot get away with skirting rules due to union presence but DL and B6 can?

The union filed a lawsuit against them and they began to walk back their initial memo.

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by Brickell305
Wed May 06, 2020 7:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020
Replies: 1505
Views: 191965

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2020

jfklganyc wrote:
TPA puzzles me.

Try to book a flight this week. Full full full.

This is not a city to cut

When they filed for the exemption, they cited load factor of 15% to TPA. Maybe things have changed since and they won’t take advantage of the exemption.

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by Brickell305
Wed May 06, 2020 6:32 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Can MCO ever become a legacy hub?
Replies: 46
Views: 5214

Re: Can MCO ever become a legacy hub?

But even WNI don't see will ever dominate MCO point of sale. It's just such a fragmented market with such a large ULCC market and strong legacy presence. WN probably does dominate Orlando point-of-sale; it's just that Orlando point-of-sale is a relatively small fraction of traffic as compared to al...

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by Brickell305
Wed May 06, 2020 5:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - May 2020
Replies: 184
Views: 25355

Doug Parker calls out airlines cutting work hours despite accepting CARES funding

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/2020/05/05/american-airlines-ceo-says-united-cannot-legally-shift-workers-from-fulltime-to-parttime-sources-say/#181631916efd American Airlines CEO Says United Can’t Legally Shift Workers From Full-Time To Part-Time, Sources Say American Airlines AAL does not agr...

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by Brickell305
Wed May 06, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons
Replies: 376
Views: 55556

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

However, I wouldn't look to TSA pass through data for signs of a recovery. I think the best way to gauge recovery is by looking at the actions of the airlines themselves. Airlines have the data they need to know how much capacity is needed in each market... Do U.S. airlines report their passenger c...

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by Brickell305
Wed May 06, 2020 3:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons
Replies: 376
Views: 55556

Re: TSA Screening Numbers - Charts and Comparisons

Thanks for putting this together. I always appreciate when threads are data driven. However, I wouldn't look to TSA pass through data for signs of a recovery. I think the best way to gauge recovery is by looking at the actions of the airlines themselves. Airlines have the data they need to know how ...

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by Brickell305
Tue May 05, 2020 4:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

The news broke today that VS is going to make almost a third of its employees redundant and close its LGW base. I do not expect to see another VS aircraft in the Caribbean again, a big shame as the airline has served the region since September 1998 from LGW starting with BGI and UVF with ANU a mont...

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by Brickell305
Tue May 05, 2020 2:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

The news broke today that VS is going to make almost a third of its employees redundant and close its LGW base. I do not expect to see another VS aircraft in the Caribbean again, a big shame as the airline has served the region since September 1998 from LGW starting with BGI and UVF with ANU a mont...

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by Brickell305
Tue May 05, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Virgin Atlantic creditors aprove restructuring; (files for BK in US Court)
Replies: 1516
Views: 183600

Re: Virgin Atlantic needs government support?

VS11 wrote:
Confirmed on BBC live broadcast: Virgin Atlantic to close Gatwick ops.

Sad to see them go from LGW. However, with things as bad as they are at VS, we might see them go completely. I hope for their employees' and the flying public's sake that's not the case.

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by Brickell305
Tue May 05, 2020 1:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Virgin Atlantic creditors aprove restructuring; (files for BK in US Court)
Replies: 1516
Views: 183600

Re: Virgin Atlantic needs government support?

imo, huge mistake here. They could've moved all their operation to LGW and faced no BA competition and had all the slots they needed to build a hub. Yet, they decided to compete with a minimal network against a much larger rival in a weakened demand environment. Other than serving DL, I don't see h...

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by Brickell305
Mon May 04, 2020 9:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

I'm not inclined to believe that this is correct. Trinidad arriving traffic is different to most of the Caribbean with a lot being VFR and business. There were about 66,700 arrivals at POS from LGW last year of which about 26% would have been VFR and 19% business (based on overall arrival statistic...

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by Brickell305
Sat May 02, 2020 6:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Ryby92, the reason I suggested that BA may consider joining POS and BGI on flights was a consideration of the downturn in the market and the strong possibility that recovery may be slow. BGI and POS are likely to recover faster than the other islands and both markets rely on high frequencies to the...

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by Brickell305
Sat May 02, 2020 12:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

When it comes to BW VFR traffic, IMHO, it's very likely that this Xmas/New Year season (plus Carnival and other religious holidays for POS) could see a peak demand and probably push BW to fly daily between POS and MIA/JFK/YYZ, plus fly some non-stops between JFK and BGI/GEO too. That scenario could...

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by Brickell305
Fri May 01, 2020 7:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

Cayman is in a very different position from all of the other Caribbean and Atlantic neighbors for a variety of reasons, not aviation related. I think BDA and GCM will maintain service for sure, even if at a reduced rate. GCM is already served from LHR so that won't be a change. I think BGI and KIN/...

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by Brickell305
Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020
Replies: 775
Views: 73494

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2020

I dont think most people truly grasp how bad things are about to get in the Caribbean. I highly doubt any of Cal's Caribbean expansion dreams will happen furthermore we should expect a major fleet cut or possibly its demise. Most people in the source markets wont have that disposable income for a w...

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by Brickell305
Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: BA could make up to 12,000 employees redundant
Replies: 347
Views: 68872

Re: BA may not reopen at Gatwick

I would argue that many routes flown ex-LGW are simply redundant at this stage (such as LGW-AMS/EDI/VCE). I would also assume that most of the long-haul route network would make the transition. I think most of their Caribbean network is probably safe and could easily moved, as most flights are simp...

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by Brickell305
Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results
Replies: 67
Views: 9499

Re: AA Reports First-Quarter 2020 Financial Results

Is this loss...excessive? Covid impacts didnt really start until mid-March in the US correct? So two weeks (in context of a quarter) and they have this big loss? I assume they were well on the way to a loss without Covid or am I totally off base here? Their financials break down revenue by region. ...

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