Search found 343 matches

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by Exeiowa
Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA monetizing frequent flyer program for $5B liquidity
Replies: 37
Views: 6131

Re: UA monetizing frequent flyer program for $5B liquidity

When Jet Airways was going through its death spiral one of its early actions was to sell off its loyalty program, do not imagine that worked out well for the buyer. The fact that something like this can have such a high perceived value is an indication of how strange our capital markets can be.

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by Exeiowa
Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA monetizing frequent flyer program for $5B liquidity
Replies: 37
Views: 6131

Re: UA monetizing frequent flyer program for $5B liquidity

The perceived value of miles by customers might diminish in the future if this pandemic situation lingers. Why use a card to accumulate miles that you do not expect to use. That only comes in to play if this lasts a long time. But cutting off an airline from this source of revenue would be quite dam...

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by Exeiowa
Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United eliminates 13 executive positions
Replies: 50
Views: 14314

Re: United eliminates 13 executive positions

Community Relations and Goodwill is important to just about any major corporation these days as it's more cost effective to retain good customers than acquire new ones. Clearly some people here aren't cut out for true leadership positions but by all means, bitch and flame away. These positions exis...

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by Exeiowa
Fri May 29, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Development paths for new scope compliant aircraft.
Replies: 355
Views: 16766

Re: Development paths for new scope compliant aircraft.

Owners and shareholders may momentarily lose their assets during the process... I don't think you understand bankruptcy. It's not a momentary loss of assets - they are GONE if assets don't exceed renegotiated liabilities. Cancelling the common stock is not an uncommon move in Chapter 11. June 11, 2...

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by Exeiowa
Tue May 26, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Development paths for new scope compliant aircraft.
Replies: 355
Views: 16766

Re: Development paths for new scope compliant aircraft.

There is so much RJ flying they have to do something it would cut off a lot of feeder traffic and a lot of RJ to RJ (ie switching RJs at a hub) flying.that is available to passengers now. For what is a worse customer experience compared to say a 737 or 320 its not cheaper to buy tickets, suggesting ...

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by Exeiowa
Tue May 26, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Development paths for new scope compliant aircraft.
Replies: 355
Views: 16766

Re: Development paths for new scope compliant aircraft.

Unless someone is going to build an extensive rail network in US there will be a need for something to do what RJ do. If that can only be done with a Prop that is what we will end up with. A lot of my business travel involved two RJs connecting small cities (chemical plants and suppliers tend to be...

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by Exeiowa
Tue May 26, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Development paths for new scope compliant aircraft.
Replies: 355
Views: 16766

Re: Development paths for new scope compliant aircraft.

Unless someone is going to build an extensive rail network in US there will be a need for something to do what RJ do. If that can only be done with a Prop that is what we will end up with. A lot of my business travel involved two RJs connecting small cities (chemical plants and suppliers tend to be ...

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by Exeiowa
Fri May 22, 2020 7:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Etihad Considers Retiring A380s and Abandoning A350s
Replies: 104
Views: 26505

Re: Rumor: Etihad Considers Retiring A380s and Abandoning A350s

What we see here is political reality meeting economic reality, we will see which one wins in the end.

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by Exeiowa
Fri May 22, 2020 7:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates Network & Fleet discussion 2020
Replies: 1482
Views: 5445

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

There problem might be as we open up the middle east simply gets bypassed as smaller planes with sufficient range take what passengers there are.

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by Exeiowa
Fri May 22, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Etihad Considers Retiring A380s and Abandoning A350s
Replies: 104
Views: 26505

Re: Rumor: Etihad Considers Retiring A380s and Abandoning A350s

It almost feels like their day in the sunshine is coming to an end, where they will be "just another" airline rather than this existential threat or higher luxury brand. And as with many things times change, as technology changes and travel patterns adjust, they are becoming just another m...

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by Exeiowa
Wed May 20, 2020 7:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Time for the airlines to restart advertising
Replies: 114
Views: 10485

Re: Time for the airlines to restart advertising

To be fair large meetings in groups are not that great for many of those things either there value is often in the mixing of people outside the formal part of the meeting. I have sat through so many in person meeting where the same could have been accomplished in 3 paragraph email. Decision based me...

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by Exeiowa
Wed May 20, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: American Airlines Business & Finance Discussion
Replies: 356
Views: 67520

Re: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK

At this point I am not worried about AA so much as debt contagion, AA might be alright in isolation but if we start to see a run on credit they become vulnerable. I have seen the phrase credit default swaps come up, this is the instrument that spread the GFC from mortgages to everything else well it...

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by Exeiowa
Wed May 20, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Chicago River Flooding Causes Willis Tower (United Airlines HQ) to lose power.
Replies: 45
Views: 8038

Re: Chicago River Flooding Causes Willis Tower (United Airlines HQ) to lose power.

In these days of COVID-19 the idea that they need the Willis tower site would probably be the one questioned so that they could be in a place where they can have more room for employees and less on one site....

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by Exeiowa
Fri May 15, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet
Replies: 763
Views: 122994

Re: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet

But before the Pandemic cargo prices were in the gutter so using a more expensive aircraft to transport cheap cargo doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. There has to be something else in this equation that I'm missing. I suspect it was merely a case of having spare 77L's and putting them where they...

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by Exeiowa
Thu May 14, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"
Replies: 135
Views: 31140

Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

The infection rate across the middle east including UAE looks like its in the exponential phase at this time. So now they have to contend with if people would want to travel through the area as well as risk of origin and destination.

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by Exeiowa
Tue May 12, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,
Replies: 308
Views: 41671

Re: Boeing CEO: A major US airline likely will go out of business this year,

I can tell you working in private industry is not as efficient as "the market" would let you believe. I know of armies of peoples existance is only to provide additional non useful work for others. Lets say they leaned production but never management.

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by Exeiowa
Mon May 11, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Time for the airlines to restart advertising
Replies: 114
Views: 10485

Re: Time for the airlines to restart advertising

Okay number one no advertising where you remind people of the virus is going to help your brand. See the tag line "You are never alone with a " a cigarette brand that was signle handedly destroyed by association with a negative emotional state. People are suggestible, as a graduate student...

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by Exeiowa
Sat May 09, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Should airlines be allowed to hedge against fuel price flactuations ?
Replies: 58
Views: 5404

Re: Should airlines be allowed to hedge against fuel price flactuations ?

People who actually need the item are not causing a problem, it was when others who did not need the item realised they could profit from trading paper back and forth that rent extraction starts making products more expensive.

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by Exeiowa
Fri May 08, 2020 8:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Time for the airlines to restart advertising
Replies: 114
Views: 10485

Re: Time for the airlines to restart advertising

Right now there is a vertical ad either side of where I am typing I did not even know what it was until I actively looked at it. Their targeting sucks. Just because I am interested in aviation I am not buying a bowser, I do not own a cat, I never will get another credit card and I cant say I have ne...

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by Exeiowa
Fri May 08, 2020 7:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Time for the airlines to restart advertising
Replies: 114
Views: 10485

Re: Time for the airlines to restart advertising

What about the advertising for branded cards, these have been a considerable money maker for airlines in recent years, hard to attract users of said card, if perk is of questionable lure.

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by Exeiowa
Thu May 07, 2020 1:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Time for the airlines to restart advertising
Replies: 114
Views: 10485

Re: Time for the airlines to restart advertising

I will give you the script for the only advert worth running at this time. Roll Stock footage of the spacious part of the plane make sure no one is too close together and with a smooth voice over read the following line "When you're ready we will be there..." Show outside shot of plane abo...

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by Exeiowa
Wed May 06, 2020 8:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Time for the airlines to restart advertising
Replies: 114
Views: 10485

Re: Time for the airlines to restart advertising

Watching all the internet companies that rely on advertising dealing with this is interesting. Not much advertising needed when people are physically unable to buy many products. Difficult to advertise flying when you don't know if there will be any happening.

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by Exeiowa
Mon May 04, 2020 3:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates Network & Fleet discussion 2020
Replies: 1482
Views: 5445

Re: EK's possible future?

I think that EK biggest problem is that it links US and Europe with India and Africa. These two area are going to have a very long fight to bring this disease back under control dampening a desire by travelers to head for these destinations.

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by Exeiowa
Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why do so many international terminals have arrivals corridors above the departures level?
Replies: 70
Views: 11234

Re: Why do so many international terminals have arrivals corridors above the departures level?

I always thought the long routes around was because the experience of arriving travelers did not matter that much to the operators of airports and will make you go which ever way works for them.

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by Exeiowa
Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:28 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Boyd Group Intl. suggests that US airports sue China's CCP
Replies: 94
Views: 4944

Re: Boyd Group Intl. suggests that US airports sue China's CCP

There is a concept called sovereign immunity. It is not possible to sue foreign governments in US courts. When the people who relatives died in a terrorist attack got a law passed to allow the country of the origin of that attack to be sued it was thrown out by courts. China clearly has a measure of...

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by Exeiowa
Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What are IAG’s plans for Aer Lingus?
Replies: 12
Views: 3313

Re: What are IAG’s plans for Aer Lingus?

I have connected a few times via Dublin from the US to EU for practical purposes it makes a good connection point as you are not over flying therefore makes reasonable flight times with connection for most of Europe (with the exception of the Iberian peninsular) and for English only speakers it is n...

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by Exeiowa
Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:55 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing is sued for $336 million over canceled 737 MAX order
Replies: 57
Views: 9933

Re: Boeing is sued for $336 million over canceled 737 MAX order

The argument clearly comes down to what each party believes the force majeure terms in the contract mean. Which are probably too vague (due to the nature of such a situation expected to trigger such a clause) that each party can feel they have something to hang their hat on. This will be an interest...

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by Exeiowa
Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing is sued for $336 million over canceled 737 MAX order
Replies: 57
Views: 9933

Re: Boeing is sued for $336 million over canceled 737 MAX order

The leasor only has a contract with Boeing, therefore the only party they would have standing against would be Boeing. There also might be some sovereign immunity involved. If it's the government's fault then Boeing would then go after the government for it's loss. So the material facts would only b...

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by Exeiowa
Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing is sued for $336 million over canceled 737 MAX order
Replies: 57
Views: 9933

Re: ALAFCO Sues Boeing Over Max

Grounding by the FAA perhaps? Yeah but they were not grounded because the FAA had nothing better to do. They were grounded because the product they were selling was unsafe and it killed over 300 innocent people. Generally, government action is defined as an excuseable delay. While we can draw a con...

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by Exeiowa
Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing is sued for $336 million over canceled 737 MAX order
Replies: 57
Views: 9933

Re: Boeing is sued for $336 million over canceled 737 MAX order

The amount being requested probably gives us an insight into the amount for deposits that Boeing would typically have, something normally held confidential and would normally not slip.

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by Exeiowa
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production
Replies: 144
Views: 19163

Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

The evidence suggests that in areas where there are no restrictions people from restricted areas travel in. Those restricted areas will be the one with the higher number of cases. This has to be done really carefully as restrictions on travelling do not exist in the US and this movement has to be ac...

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by Exeiowa
Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration
Replies: 327
Views: 54685

Re: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration

https://www.arabianbusiness.com/transpo ... -australia


Etihad has a stellar record with working with other airlines can't see that going wrong.....
-->

xwb777 wrote:
Etihad is in discussions to relaunch Virgin Australia

https://www.arabianbusiness.com/transpo ... -australia


Etihad has a stellar record with working with other airlines can't see that going wrong.....

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by Exeiowa
Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing is being forced to give larger discounts
Replies: 66
Views: 10378

Re: Boeing is being forced to give larger discounts

Not honoring the terms of a contract which was signed long ago ? This pandemic will not last forever and when this airline calls Boeing to order new aircraft, I am sure Boeing will remember this. At which point a competitor will be more than happy to accept some business. This is how the world goes...

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by Exeiowa
Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production
Replies: 144
Views: 19163

Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

The problem is that everyone needs money because they owe other people (companies and individuals) we are not all going to imminently starve to death, but people will be unable to service those loans and rent payments. At this point individuals are expected to foot the bill and partially government....

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by Exeiowa
Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41555

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

Any manufacturer will get held to terms by people short on cash looking for a way out. One point no has really mentioned anywhere yet is that governments are funding their intervention by borrowing, the pot of money is the same one, there can be some money printing, but in a time when government is ...

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by Exeiowa
Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:19 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Oil price crash
Replies: 223
Views: 7861

Re: WTI Oil price goes negative

You probably need your own barrel. There are technical reasons for this mostly due to people who normally trade paper being unable to trade the paper and getting stuck with the actual oil. But it is an indication of the strange times we are living through

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by Exeiowa
Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration
Replies: 327
Views: 54685

Re: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration

Well the problem is, the companies problem is not that it ran out of money to pay the staff, but ran out of money to pay the bond holders. Any airline getting bailed out using the employees as hostages needs the money to service its debts. Better for the government to directly assist the employees t...

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by Exeiowa
Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41555

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

In previous times is was done out of cost cutting this time it was done because no one could travel. If you didn't travel you would have been considered "cheap" when no one can travel the dynamics are different. I will say that I saw business travel as a perk, but I would only be travellin...

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by Exeiowa
Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41555

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

The Seattle Times article had many errors because Dominic Gates used ex-Boeing employees and bloggers as his sources. Here are facts that I know: - The SLB with BOC Aviation was not for 10 years - Any 77W lessor would love to extend leases right now and would probably cut rent to do so (this goes f...

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by Exeiowa
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EasyJet, Bail it or bin it?
Replies: 117
Views: 24869

Re: EasyJet, Bail it or bin it?

We cannot have companies that are solely responsible to shareholders and no other stakeholders then using employee layoffs as a hostage to extract money from a government to save them. If they are only responsible to shareholders, only shareholders are responsible for their continued existence.

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by Exeiowa
Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 2164
Views: 380955

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

It interesting we now are at a point where the capacity of the government to intervene is not even questioned, its assumed that the government can borrow the money itself (as there is already a deficit) to pass on to companies rather than themselves go to the market to borrow the cash. If companies ...

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by Exeiowa
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 2164
Views: 380955

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

You're kind of all over the place here. They had what was considered a very health amount of cash up until the world aviation market contracted by 75% inside of a month. Hind sight is 20/20. I expect the conversations of what level of catastrophe an airline should expect will be interesting over th...

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by Exeiowa
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 2164
Views: 380955

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Its not that all travel will be replaced but some will and some will be delayed. This thing will not end quickly but linger with occasional flair ups.

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by Exeiowa
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: KLM considers A321 order
Replies: 271
Views: 50994

Re: KLM considers A321 order

Its obvious that the MAX will be the last iteration of the 737. So what comes after will require new infrastructure. Its longevity in the marketplace will be shortened by the knowledge that something else has to come after it. So the opportunity cost of switching will likely not be as high as it mig...

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by Exeiowa
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: American Carriers after COVID-19
Replies: 15
Views: 3716

Re: American Carriers after COVID-19

I think people will be slow to coming back to travelling. Firstly from lingering concern, followed by people and business having overhanging economic factors limiting spending and then finally business who have had to deal with being unable to travel have come up with alternatives to do the same thi...

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by Exeiowa
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020
Replies: 463
Views: 73699

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Its going to be hard to convince people they need this aircraft. No new orders will be rolling in as preexisting orders from lessors will need new homes, and airlines will be looking to offload excess frames. It will be hard to push contractual obligations on companies under the circumstances. I hav...

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by Exeiowa
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 2164
Views: 380955

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

People stopped flying before shut downs, the reduction in flights was in a response to the demand side. So I don't think this thing will come back quickly people will be acting cautiously for some time outside of any enforced restrictions. Despite 9/11 being a one day phenomena the reduction in air ...

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by Exeiowa
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier
Replies: 2164
Views: 380955

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

that's great. The point is that it takes upwards of 2 weeks to show symptoms. The average Corona patient spreads it to 2.5-3 people. Only around 1 with flu. Then those people spread it. And on we go. So yes that's why I'd rather shut everything down for a few weeks completely in hopes of getting th...

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by Exeiowa
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60277

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

At a certain point company triage is going set in and who is worth saving with the limited resources. If you save a manufacturer but not the customers there is not going to be a demand. I suspect that this thing will rumble along a really long time. There will be no air travel demand for a long time...

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by Exeiowa
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again
Replies: 310
Views: 64313

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

I would rather risk hostile takeovers than companies coming cap in hand every few years. If it is a problem then I would imagine there is some rule making if done right could mitigate this problem. Apple famously has a lot of cash (it only started giving dividends in the last few years) and no one h...

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