Search found 226 matches

by JonesNL
Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1890
Views: 190378

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

One scenario that I find interesting is that Boeing does an all new kerosene based single aisle line up and Airbus bets on hydrogen. Who will get most orders in such a case? The assumption of Airbus and others is that the price of Hydrogen will go down significantly and the efficiency of fuelcells w...

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by JonesNL
Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:02 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1890
Views: 190378

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

seahawk wrote:
Using what fuel?


Well, the EU wants to force the usage of hydrogen as it is pouring billions and billions in to the hydrogen industry. Which is no guarantee that the industry will be mature enough to power planes, but it does help a lot...

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by JonesNL
Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 578
Views: 65735

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

I don't know what you think, lightsaber, but I think they're smoking weed in Toulouse. Airbus said it had asked suppliers to “protect” a production rate of 47 A320-family jets a month, up from 40, meaning it wants suppliers to be ready to support that rate when needed. It indicated the earliest suc...

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by JonesNL
Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1890
Views: 190378

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Also, if launched, Airbus would certainly be under pressure to do an “A322” I think Airbus is just waiting for the right time to launch the A322 anyway. As the A322 will be, IMO, a much cheaper product to bring to the market, this NMA would have to be exceptionally more efficient to compete. The A3...

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by JonesNL
Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1890
Views: 190378

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

What improved engines might they be thinking about? So existing ones beefed up. Big diameter GTF? GE PIP something? Interesting. What thrust range, 35K to 40K? I always thought this was the place to be for the next aircraft, more so than 50K. Maybe an scaled down version of the GE GE9X? There were ...

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by JonesNL
Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rolls Royce loses £5.4bn, closing two factories, looking to sell assets
Replies: 155
Views: 21814

Re: Rolls Royce loses £5.4bn, closing two factories, looking to sell assets

Lightsaber those numbers are just wrong and you referring to them repeatedly makes no sense. Zeke has a table up on the ge engine certification thread which literally lays out the performance figures as they are. The real world data is consistently 20% or better for the a35k vs 77w. The aircraft in...

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by JonesNL
Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rolls Royce loses £5.4bn, closing two factories, looking to sell assets
Replies: 155
Views: 21814

Re: Rolls Royce loses £5.4bn, closing two factories, looking to sell assets

I found an interesting link on predicted fuel burn for a whole bunch of widebodies (but no A380). It helps to talk to numbers: https://www.aircraft-commerce.com/sample_article_folder/121_FLTOPS_A.pdf Very interesting indeed. I was expecting the A350-1000 to have a much higher performance over the 7...

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by JonesNL
Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders
Replies: 359
Views: 87167

Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Only another 1,100 cancellations to go! Only 3 cancellations last month. It seems Boeing is holding on well as Max gets ready for entry into service. I expect no big cancellations from now on. Plus another 48 removed from the backlog through ASC 606. A backlog that represents more than four years o...

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by JonesNL
Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rolls Royce loses £5.4bn, closing two factories, looking to sell assets
Replies: 155
Views: 21814

Re: Rolls Royce loses £5.4bn, closing two factories, looking to sell assets

[Slightly off topic] Seeing that Rolls Royce is practically bankrupt; is there a possibility that Airbus takes over the relevant engine programs, like Trent, Ultrafan?
Especially seeing that the whole future of their widebodies is so dependant on these current and future programs...

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by JonesNL
Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing releases new CMO (Current market outlook)
Replies: 61
Views: 7934

Re: Boeing releases new CMO (Current market outlook)

Reuters ( https://uk.reuters.com/article/boeing-forecast/boeing-cuts-industry-demand-forecast-on-pandemic-crisis-idUKL1N2GW1ZZ ) has posted a summary: As you suggest the 'dramatic' part is the next year or two. As for 10% decline across a decade, if true it's a big enough thing to those in the indu...

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by JonesNL
Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing releases new CMO (Current market outlook)
Replies: 61
Views: 7934

Re: Boeing releases new CMO (Current market outlook)

They estimate an average of 378 widebody deliveries per year And 1613 single aisle deliveries per year on average over the next 20 years.

Seems over optimistic to me.

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by JonesNL
Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Boeing to Consolidate 787 Production in South Carolina
Replies: 320
Views: 55768

Re: Updated: Boeing to Consolidate 787 Production in South Carolina

The ongoing political unrest in Seattle I am sure does not help either. What political unrest? I live in Seattle. For the City of Seattle proper 99% of it has no unrest. Oh and Boeing has very few operations in the city proper, most are in Everett or Renton. Both of those cities have had no notable...

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by JonesNL
Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Airbus unveils three hydrogen concepts
Replies: 142
Views: 12769

Re: Updated: Airbus unveils three hydrogen concepts

What an utter non-sense. Who likes pollution? But that doesn't automatically make solar / wind power feasible or a good idea. For aircraft: forget technological breakthroughs solving everything, we haven't seen them over the last 60 years, despite 100's of billions in R&D. We have to give up bl...

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by JonesNL
Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Airbus unveils three hydrogen concepts
Replies: 142
Views: 12769

Re: Airbus unveiling three hydrogen concept plane today at 2pm CET

If you build / integrate a windmill, you have to include all the energy required, to create / form / transport the steel, create the basements in the sea, the cabling, power stations and required infrastructure to manage power variations when there is no / too much wind. And after 20 years thye ene...

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by JonesNL
Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:47 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Airbus unveils three hydrogen concepts
Replies: 142
Views: 12769

Re: Airbus unveiling three hydrogen concept plane today at 2pm CET

To build a windmill, put it in a sea, connect it & make sure we have power when there is no wind, remove it after 20-25 years, clean up, costs about the same amount of energy it takes to create / operate. I don't understand what you mean. Can you expand? Your graph suggests that nuclear has no ...

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by JonesNL
Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Airbus unveils three hydrogen concepts
Replies: 142
Views: 12769

Re: Airbus unveiling three hydrogen concept plane today at 2pm CET

Where will all this hydrogen needed come from? From "clean" nuclear energy? Yes. All options taking into account, I see little alternatives. Sun & wind are just the window dressing we love to believe in We ignore the massive energy requirements / current generation because we love to ...

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by JonesNL
Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:01 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EasyJet Electric Aircraft: Engine Test by 2023, Aircraft in Service 2030
Replies: 80
Views: 11770

Re: EasyJet Electric Aircraft: Engine Test by 2023, Aircraft in Service 2030

Sorry for bringing up an oldish thread but just saw this and hence had to share. Seems there are at least 10-15 odd manufacturers who are looking at electric aircraft. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mz4rMq9yt7Y When the electric variant of an training plane costs $3 dollar an hour in fuel compared...

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by JonesNL
Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:05 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 578
Views: 65735

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

I work in that industry. I do not want the layoffs. Boeing and Airbus are running through cash too quickly and airlines are worse off. Airbus' profits in the good times weren't high enough to ride this magnitude of a drop without my previously quoted production drops. Boeing's 2q report had $4.3 bi...

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by JonesNL
Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 578
Views: 65735

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

I can't understand they do not understand that demand is dead for the next 18 months. The only reason that airliners are accepting deliveries are contractual obligations, not because they need it. Shoving your products in your customers throats when they do not want them is never a good long term s...

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by JonesNL
Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 578
Views: 65735

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

I can't understand they do not understand that demand is dead for the next 18 months. The only reason that airliners are accepting deliveries are contractual obligations, not because they need it. Shoving your products in your customers throats when they do not want them is never a good long term s...

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by JonesNL
Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 578
Views: 65735

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

My entire premise above, by the way, is partially biased against being willing to believe as many of the people I know in aerospace will be laid off as would be dictated by a 60% production rate cut. I work in that industry. I do not want the layoffs. Boeing and Airbus are running through cash too ...

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by JonesNL
Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rolls Royce loses £5.4bn, closing two factories, looking to sell assets
Replies: 155
Views: 21814

Re: Rolls Royce loses £5.4bn, closing two factories, looking to sell assets

The liability increase: "This partly reflects big swings in the value of currency derivatives, rather than the underlying health of the business." https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/rolls-royce-is-fast-becoming-a-british-calamity/2020/08/27/f71253f0-e855-11ea-bf44-0d31c85838a5_story....

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by JonesNL
Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020
Replies: 716
Views: 115901

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

.... I understand the Max's MCAS took control over from the pilots and they couldn't shut it off but at least they could have compared AOA sensors and figured out which one was erroneous. Why does it all have to be tied into 1 system. Let the pilots make the decision what info is right and what to ...

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by JonesNL
Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How would a stretched A330neo have fared?
Replies: 60
Views: 7268

Re: How would a stretched A330neo have fared?

Actually I think a smaller true A300 5500nm range replacement would have fared much better. The difference with the A350 would have been much bigger. A true Middle of the market plane...

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by JonesNL
Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A220-300 MTOW is now 156,300 lb
Replies: 47
Views: 10191

Re: A220-300 MTOW is now 156,300 lb

Well, if you accept a range of 2,200 nm and a "comfortable" pitch then it is okay indeed. Do you have an range diagram for 2200 nm with 180pax? or an source that outlines the capabilities of this plane? No. It is a rough order or magnitude. A stretch of the A220-300 will have a lot of lim...

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by JonesNL
Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact
Replies: 251
Views: 28616

Re: A330neo future bleak from COVID impact

... The secondhand A330s and 787s that will come to market will be a threat to both programs though. Also, fuel price will not stay low forever and while it may never reach the peaks of a few years ago, it will not stay at the low levels either. Boeing do not deliver many 787-8 anylore. Most of the...

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by JonesNL
Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A220-300 MTOW is now 156,300 lb
Replies: 47
Views: 10191

Re: A220-300 MTOW is now 156,300 lb

... A 180 seat 5-abreast cabin at same pitch would be shorter than an 195E2 after all, and that seems to be just fine. Well, if you accept a range of 2,200 nm and a "comfortable" pitch then it is okay indeed. Do you have an range diagram for 2200 nm with 180pax? or an source that outlines...

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by JonesNL
Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates Network & Fleet discussion 2020
Replies: 1753
Views: 48764

Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

As I see it, Boeing has the widebody market pretty well covered with the 788/9/J and 778/9. Airbus has their A339 and A359/J. Airbus probably has the bigger hole to fill in their market, but they have the A321LR/XLR, which fits all of the F, all of the J, and 70% of the Y of a 762 on something like...

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by JonesNL
Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020
Replies: 716
Views: 115901

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

American architects Victor Hugo Azevedo and Cheryl Lu Xu have a back-up plan for the 737MAX, just in case the return to service will not go as smoothly as hoped: https://images4.persgroep.net/rcs/aJoKD83_NJU-fbJHb_vGi3pTKZY/diocontent/172939946/_fitwidth/1240?appId=93a17a8fd81db0de025c8abd1cca1279&...

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by JonesNL
Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta A221 Schedule Reliability struggle
Replies: 104
Views: 26466

Re: Delta A221 Schedule Reliability struggle

It does imply a certain reliability. Improvements have been delivered, but not universal. I would like some numbers, but DL has certainly favored the A220. Lightsaber Seeing that all programs production rate took a big hit, with the A22x being the sole exception speaks volumes as well. Probably too...

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by JonesNL
Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta A221 Schedule Reliability struggle
Replies: 104
Views: 26466

Re: Delta A221 Schedule Reliability struggle

Does anyone have any update on this subject? A220 has been one of the Delta workhorses during the pandemic It does imply a certain reliability. Improvements have been delivered, but not universal. I would like some numbers, but DL has certainly favored the A220. Lightsaber Seeing that all programs ...

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by JonesNL
Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing 2020 deliveries
Replies: 86
Views: 19752

Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 deliveries

Damm, just 4. It hurts just to think about it...

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by JonesNL
Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"
Replies: 424
Views: 73882

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Ps.: the number 1 prio should be getting reliability up the bar
Number 2 getting production cost down and production rate up
Number 3 getting more sales, which support investments in the previous subject
After all this they can put the development of the A225 on the agenda...

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by JonesNL
Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"
Replies: 424
Views: 73882

Re: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"

Since the backlog/production constraint is lifted from the A32x program for now, the A225 is financially not wise for Airbus. Every A32x produced has an high profit margin. Every A22x has a negative margin. Financially, they have an negative incentive in developing the A225 for the coming 3-4 years ...

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by JonesNL
Fri May 15, 2020 9:04 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max
Replies: 731
Views: 136585

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

From a simplification perspective would it not be wiser to push Airbus into developing an A225 instead of adding another type to the fleet?

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by JonesNL
Tue May 12, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus CEO: "“We’re bleeding cash; may threaten existence of company"
Replies: 190
Views: 31491

Re: Airbus CEO: "“We’re bleeding cash; may threaten existence of company"

And how much of the backlog of the other manufactuerer do you expect to be delivered? I can not see why the outlook for Boeing should be different, outside the military orders that is. We must understand that cancellations and deferrals have the same effect on the supply chain. So if you look at th...

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by JonesNL
Tue May 12, 2020 8:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta 321 neo status
Replies: 23
Views: 6100

Re: Delta 321 neo status

I think the strategy of Airbus will be to defer A32x but keep A22x. They can probably fill the A32x slots with the production reduction elsewhere, but deferring A22x will probably mean that the program will never make a dime of profit before its NEO/MAX/NG upgrade. They need the numbers to break eve...

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by JonesNL
Wed May 06, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 passenger to 'auxilary freighter'
Replies: 63
Views: 12243

Re: A380 passenger to 'auxilary freighter'

Didn't SQ retire some older A380s and no one took them? Can't they just convert those? I don't think so 8-) https://www.airportspotting.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/9V-SKA_LDE_02.01.2020.jpg Source: https://www.airportspotting.com/widebody-airliner-storage-and-scrapped-a380s-tarbes-lourdes-spotti...

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by JonesNL
Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirBaltic negotiating for faster A220 delivery
Replies: 28
Views: 4822

Re: AirBaltic negotiating for faster A220 delivery

If I am correct they also charter their A220 to other airliners. Is it possible they are gambling on the chartering/leasing out all birds that they can not fly themselves? The A220 will be the cheapest plane to operate and much easier to fill in times where shrinking routes will be the name of the g...

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by JonesNL
Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1890
Views: 190378

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Orders for the 737-7 seemed non existent even before the Corona crisis. The 737-8 seems to have enough quality problems to ground the worldwide fleet for a year, stop production and fire the CEO. The -9 didn't hold it's own, that's why the -10 was launched. Altogether it wise to launch a plan B ins...

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by JonesNL
Tue Apr 14, 2020 8:37 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1890
Views: 190378

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Can the 737MAX cover the (huge) 150-200 seats up to 3000NM "bread and butter" market segment the coming 10-15 years? Absolutely. The 737-7 and 737-8 are optimized for that market. Where the MAX starts to stumble is the 200-240 seats up to 3000NM market segment, but even there it can compe...

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by JonesNL
Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer hopes E175-E2 jet efficiency helps modify scope clauses
Replies: 434
Views: 37298

Re: Embraer hopes E175-E2 jet efficiency helps modify scope clauses

A bit off topic and might warrant its own thread: Are there any other potential air crafts(beside the 170-E2) that will be scope complaint? Can't imagine the M100 will have the entire segment for its own. Even though it is a low margin niche, 1000 possible units is nothing to scoff at in my book.

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by JonesNL
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 107
Views: 11396

Re: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020

As far as I know, central banks lend money to banks, which then lend it to companies. This also dictates the interest. Even when the central bank has 0.0-0.25% rates, lending from the bank has a higher interest that actually reflects the risk for the bank to lend. Now for airbus it seems that due t...

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by JonesNL
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II
Replies: 1993
Views: 340962

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Commercial aviation industry (and the hospitality, in general) saved in Denmark The Danish government has just released a virtually bottomless pit of support for "especially endangered parts of the industry", pledging to pay up to 80% of their fixed costs, if they stand to lose more than ...

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by JonesNL
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 435
Views: 61867

Re: Boeing in Crisis

The biggest problem with this crisis is that the low oil price effectively kills many reasons to buy a new efficient aircraft from A or B. I see a slow down in production for the A330 and A350 for A and the 787 for Boeing if the low oil price is more structural. Which leaves the A32x as the only sou...

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by JonesNL
Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Fleet makeup and Markets served
Replies: 11
Views: 1890

Re: Fleet makeup and Markets served

One point is that the smaller jets are still instrumental in serving much of the networks. The US fleet of 1037 smaller jets is aging rapidly, and very few airlines are buying new jets of this size. I know that people like to point out that jets can be active for a long time, and that the airlines ...

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by JonesNL
Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Production/Delivery Thread - 2020
Replies: 384
Views: 97903

Re: Airbus A220 Production/Delivery Thread - 2020

Was this kind of investment expected or is Airbus doubling down since they have an higher stake? I know BBD was on the leash for about 350milion, but this announcement almost triples that amount.

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by JonesNL
Thu Feb 20, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not
Replies: 376
Views: 56887

Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

323 tonne that you mention is probably enough. However the comment was for 319 tonnes. MTOW is already 319t since May 2019. See Airbus brochure: https://www.airbus.com/content/dam/corporate-topics/publications/backgrounders/Airbus-Family-Figures-booklet.pdf Adding 4t to achieve a MTOW of 323t is a ...

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by JonesNL
Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:33 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not
Replies: 376
Views: 56887

Re: Project Sunrise Approved - Pilot Agreement or Not

Are you sure it is enough? Both a simple breguet calculator and my first principles model say that 323t is enough. Assumes required SAR of 9600nm Fred Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 323 tonne that you mention is probably enough. However the comment was for 319 tonnes. MTOW is already 319t since...

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by JonesNL
Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020
Replies: 708
Views: 96931

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, February 2020

The bacon for me is in the architecture outline and the choices it lead to. Basing mcas on one AOA was almost logical when looking at the architecture. But if you were already aware of this, then no bacon there either. That's exactly where the article goes deeper than what I've seen so far. Precise...

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