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by seahawk
Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:29 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

I think Boeing needs to worry about getting their existing programs running smoothly before they start thinking about revolutionising the industry. They are also cutting 787 production to one line so their thirst for future orders is not as high as it would have been with 2 lines. Yes they can expa...

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by seahawk
Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Not if it is something crazy like an 7W-8W with MTOW 175-200T But an NMA AKA NSA-ER with MTOW somewhere in the 110-130T range (either 3x3 or 2-3-2) that could clearly be downsized (different wing/gear/ engines) and held the promise of being able to be produced at quite a low cost - that would cause...

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by seahawk
Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

What announcement would make executives in Toulouse and Hamburg sit up straight, pay attention and make calls? Probably not another $15B MoM defibrillation. Not if it is something crazy like an 7W-8W with MTOW 175-200T But an NMA AKA NSA-ER with MTOW somewhere in the 110-130T range (either 3x3 or 2...

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by seahawk
Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

It applies to everything, even in the construction/manufacturing. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjbhP-AyYDwAhUnKFkFHc5vB1wQFjABegQICBAD&url=https%3A%2F%2Fhome.fnal.gov%2F~peterg%2FRDR%2FLearning_Curves.pdf&usg=AOvVaw2ymqD1ez...

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by seahawk
Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

I think he means type certificate for pilots not the FAA certification of the plane itself.

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by seahawk
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:02 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Obviously, I was just using the same negative outlook for the XLR as some use for the MAX or NMA.

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by seahawk
Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

That would mean that every part has to be certified seperately though. Which means no commonality for spares, etc. That means no economy of scale... How often do you need a spare for a structural item? Sure the MLG is different, but apart from that? It applies to everything, even in the constructio...

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by seahawk
Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

A NMA OEW of 72t is an ambitious target, if it was much lighter Boeing would have specified lower thrust engines. Plus, the basic design is a basis for significant larger, more capable variants up to 300 seats. That usually doesn't make the short version very light (Ref. A358. 788, 77LR, 737-7, A31...

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by seahawk
Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

A NMA OEW of 72t is an ambitious target, if it was much lighter Boeing would have specified lower thrust engines. Plus, the basic design is a basis for significant larger, more capable variants up to 300 seats. That usually doesn't make the short version very light (Ref. A358. 788, 77LR, 737-7, A31...

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by seahawk
Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:25 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

How do you get 6-7 hours 3,000-3,500NM with 250 seats when the A321XLR will struggle with that and by your assumption the A322 will have 1,200NM less range? :scratchchin: https://airbus-h.assetsadobe2.com/is/image/content/dam/stock-and-creative/infographic/A321XLR-infografic.jpg?wid=1920&fit=fi...

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by seahawk
Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

The 767 probably is still the best baseline, when looking at the problem. A narrow 8 abreast with about 5500nm range for the short version (about 762 length) combined with a 4500+nm ranged version of around 763 length. Seating in a configuration similar to the A321 @240 seats, would be around 280 fo...

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by seahawk
Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

The A322 should never compete against the NMA. If it can, even with a new wing, the NMA has no business case.

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by seahawk
Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:31 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Shooting of Daunte Wright
Replies: 181
Views: 15505

Re: Shooting of Daunte Wright

If you let the number sink in, it actually says something completely different. If you want to compare the numbers, let us look at the percentage of police officers killed by unarmed African American males.

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by seahawk
Wed Apr 14, 2021 11:19 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 1526
Views: 111049

Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

And the J&J story is not going to help the public perception of AZ. Especially when you look at the different reactions of both companies.

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by seahawk
Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:14 am
Forum: Aviation Photography
Topic: Nikon Peeps: 24-120 vs 24-70
Replies: 10
Views: 7433

Re: Nikon Peeps: 24-120 vs 24-70

Agree for me it would be 24-70 for quality or 28-300 for versatility.

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by seahawk
Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

We're really not talking about "current generation engines" unless you think technology froze in the 00s and GE and Safran learned nothing from GE9X. Feel free to list the engine technologies it's worth waiting till the 30s for, and what they offer in risk vs reward. On the GE-side the ge...

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by seahawk
Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

The key point to realize is Boeing has no product in the space above MAX10 to offer at all. Coming out of the gate with an engine sized for your new clean sheet is a game changer. Coming out with an engine sized for the current aircraft on offer will help those who buy CFM on Airbus as much as it h...

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by seahawk
Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

But the A321 can also field the GTF and GTF and LEAP will see PiPs in the 2020ies. So the delta will be not that big. PW says, they could offer a GTF Mk.2 after 2030, that should bring about 10% improvement over a GTF fitted on an early A320NEO. They are also aiming at a 3-4% PiP by 2024 and a 2% P...

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by seahawk
Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Bigger with an advance of a half-generation in tech suggests to me something bigger than LEAP-1A and sized for the needs of the platform, rather than a throttle pushed LEAP-1A. Okay - then a LEAP-2B incorporating GE9X technology and a larger fan would give NMA-5 a propulsive advantage over the A321...

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by seahawk
Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

But then how much is a half generation? PW/MTU are aiming for a 3-4% PiP for the GTF to come online by 2024. with another 2% to come at the end of the decade. That´s the benchmark.

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by seahawk
Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

They are both publicly traded stock. The very worst they want is to maintain market share even as the need for aviation continues to grow. Investors also want to see revenues and profits going up, and if they are wise/have any common sense, they will insist on long term planning. Boeing is not goin...

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by seahawk
Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

And the OEMs do not want that. As long as both are running at capacity and earn good margins, it is totally okay for Airbus and Boeing to have the MAX with a little advantage in the -7/-8 and the A321 with a little advantage over the -9/-10. A nicely balanced duopoly is perfect for both. They are b...

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by seahawk
Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:56 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Boeing needs a solid longer term strategy, instead of hoping the 737-10 will do miracles. Airlines want to buy Boeing aircraft, they want competition among OEM's (REF IAG, Qatar) . But they need Boeing offering superior aircraft for the next 30 years. Not failed upgrades of real old ones. And Boein...

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by seahawk
Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Is the 7 abreast for NMA and NSA?

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by seahawk
Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:34 am
Forum: Aviation Photography
Topic: Nikon Peeps: 24-120 vs 24-70
Replies: 10
Views: 7433

Re: Nikon Peeps: 24-120 vs 24-70

The IQ of the 24-120 is worse than the 24-70. For air-to-air one could consider the 28-300 as well, which is highly versatile and the IQ is still acceptable.

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by seahawk
Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

You can not fly 5000nm and optimize for 2000nm. This is simply not possible unless you want to fly the 5000nm as a ferry flight. To be honest as mentioned earlier all but one of the 50 busiest routes in the world are under 1200nm. The next airplane will likely be optimized for closer to 1000nm than...

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by seahawk
Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

And I don't believe Airbus has a viable competitor at the NMA-6 and NMA-7 end. And if this market is so "marginal", Airbus might not bother competing there and instead continue to reap the benefits of the A321XLR at the NMA-5 and below space. Simple question if Airbus has no viable compet...

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by seahawk
Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

I would say the A321 is probably most efficient on routes up to 2000nm due to the wing being designed for small distances and not long cruising. It still can fly way further and the LR even more just by adding ACTs. Do not forget it is not just about the amount of fuel you can load, but also for wh...

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by seahawk
Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

I seriously doubt that. I would say the A321 is probably most efficient on routes up to 2000nm due to the wing being designed for small distances and not long cruising. It still can fly way further and the LR even more just by adding ACTs. Do not forget it is not just about the amount of fuel you c...

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by seahawk
Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

I seriously doubt that.

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by seahawk
Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:02 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

You can not fly 5000nm and optimize for 2000nm. This is simply not possible unless you want to fly the 5000nm as a ferry flight.

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by seahawk
Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:09 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

In a 8 years pax 757s will be gone, with a NMA and without. And people finally need to look at the 757 sales and usage. Nobody wanted the 757-200X and the use on longer routes only started, with the winglets and when the 757 was replaced on shorter routes by the 737-800. One could easily say, that n...

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by seahawk
Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Transpacific range as a dogma requirement is wrong. Less range is even "better" because too much wing and weight and structure will ruin all efficiencies on shorter flights. Take the 787... Boeing needs to do "just" something like 757/767 again, in CFRP. Very efficient robust ai...

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by seahawk
Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Market share is only important for forum enthusiasts, as long as your production is running at capacity and you are seeing acceptable margins. Neither of the two should have an interest to really start hurting each other, which is wise considering that new technologies are on the horizon and new com...

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by seahawk
Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

I think at some point Airbus will launch a A320 replacement, slightly bigger than 737-8, with engine choice, container options, quiet spacey cabine and full A320/A321NEO commonality. But only after Boeing has fully commited itself to an NMA, starting around A321 size. https://lh3.googleusercontent....

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by seahawk
Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

The Max is selling well, what they need is something to disrupt the market and that is the NMA. The vision is a twin aisle family will be used for the NMA and NSA, delivering superior economics in both segments.

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by seahawk
Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:16 am
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Second tier advanced fighter projects news and discussion
Replies: 325
Views: 91957

Re: Second tier advanced fighter projects news and discussion

The Korean design does not look bad at all. The roll-out showed no obviously wrong details or parts that seemed to be for show only. Not stealthy per se, but sure a nice RCS reduction compared to a 4th gen. should have been achieved.

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by seahawk
Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

I simply recommend looking at what the engine OEMs and their large suppliers are saying, to get a reality check on future airliners. Nearly all plans involve evolutions of existing technology, either upgrading the core for the GTF or adding the gear to the non GTF engines. After that it will be comp...

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by seahawk
Fri Apr 09, 2021 6:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane
Replies: 2290
Views: 270503

Re: Boeing CEO's Comments On Their Next Airplane

Although if that does happen I don't think they will share the same wing as you won't have enough range in a -7 or the -5 would do something crazy like 6,500NM. Just like in the Leeham article which seems to show the -5 with a wing significantly smaller. I would expect all three NMA to share the sa...

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by seahawk
Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:30 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: WN - A220 vs MAX "Never A Competition"
Replies: 101
Views: 17567

Re: WN - A220 vs MAX "Never A Competition"

I think the 737 could very well see another generation of engines by 2030-35. To compete against the new cleansheet NB offering of Airbus? Sounds like a plan! Who says their will be one. PW talks about the next evolution of the GTF, which could bring 10% fuel burn reduction while keeping the same f...

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by seahawk
Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: WN - A220 vs MAX "Never A Competition"
Replies: 101
Views: 17567

Re: WN - A220 vs MAX "Never A Competition"

I think the 737 could very well see another generation of engines by 2030-35.

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by seahawk
Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: WN - A220 vs MAX "Never A Competition"
Replies: 101
Views: 17567

Re: WN - A220 vs MAX "Never A Competition"

Different types do not necessarily create more costs, if each subfleet is big enough. This entirely depends on your infrastructure. If you have a MRO branch that is already working on different types for other airlines and a training branch that also handles different types for other customers, the ...

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by seahawk
Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:20 am
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: F-15X has no mission!
Replies: 173
Views: 19615

Re: F-15X has no mission!

You mean certified for a cancelled program?

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by seahawk
Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:16 am
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Trinational FCAS Programme News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 124
Views: 42593

Re: New FCAS Unveiled by Dassault for France, Germany & Spain

Lots of money for a plane that will be obsolete when entering production.

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by seahawk
Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:15 am
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: F-15X has no mission!
Replies: 173
Views: 19615

Re: F-15X has no mission!

I wholly disagree. Stealth is not an evolution off the current branch of fighter combat. It has started a different branch. Besides the dicotomy of a stealthy fighter and radar use, you have the current limitation of the high temperature composite and stealth coating maintenance. If manufacturing e...

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by seahawk
Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:08 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Airport Neighbors Unhappier Than Ever About Noise, Despite Quieter Planes
Replies: 54
Views: 3644

Re: Airport Neighbors Unhappier Than Ever About Noise, Despite Quieter Planes

Sometimes you need to experience quiet to understand how loud it was. Since COVID I find the planes a lot louder, because now there are periods of quiet.

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by seahawk
Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:42 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 1526
Views: 111049

Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

Still AZ delivered 25% of all doses. So with no AZ the EU won´t be done with the process till 2022.

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by seahawk
Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest Orders 100 MAX + 155 Options
Replies: 197
Views: 31765

Re: Southwest Orders 100 MAX + 155 Options

The signal is, that the economics work for SW.

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