Search found 22367 matches

by lightsaber
Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021
Replies: 335
Views: 46504

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

I understand very well that the production cost of A220-100 is similar to that of the A220-300. That's it the point. The point is that the A220-100 is sold millions of US dollars lower than the A220-300. We are not talking about the revenue of the operator here. We are talking about the revenue of ...

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by lightsaber
Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender
Replies: 121
Views: 17378

Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

I do not consider any scenario certain. I consider the -10 MAX a favorite though. I'm not certain how many A223 would be plausible for KLM either. A 3 way split adds too much in costs for 160 aircraft after I think about this, but a 2 way split has merits. There is a cost for a split, but also a cos...

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by lightsaber
Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AF-KLM Group Narrowbody tender
Replies: 121
Views: 17378

Re: Af/KLM Narrowbody order 2021

This is a facinating order. I won't assume anything, but Boeing, with the MAX-10 has an advantage. The question on smaller and the possibility of the A220 and possible xLR orders makes this less than 100% certain to one vendor. I'm at 60% certain all Boeing, which can mean anything.

Lightsaber

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by lightsaber
Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Porter Airlines Orders 30 Embraer E195-E2
Replies: 216
Views: 30297

Re: Porter orders up to 80 E195-E2

I just find links on "up to 80." We get excited about options being excercised for a reason. I assume it is the order for 30 previously reported: https://leehamnews.com/2021/05/19/hotr-porter-confirmed-as-customer-in-e195-e2-deal/ The Porter site says: Our initial set of new routes will be...

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by lightsaber
Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A321XLR Development Production Testing Thread - 2021
Replies: 151
Views: 38822

Re: Airbus A321XLR Development Production Testing Thread - 2021

3900nmi fully loaded in a high density configuration seems unlikely. Pax weight with luggage would be between 60-70k lbs plus OEW wouldn't leave enough margin for the fuel required. 132Kg/Pax seems a bit much, just as 60-70k is a bit much for an aircraft with 56,200 lbs max payload. At 52t OEW that...

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by lightsaber
Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 367
Views: 60408

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

What about AirAsia (non-X)? Is the airline(s) having troubles too? I would guess it is the case, but how deep are they in the poop? They are in deep trouble. However, it is believed they can sell enough stock where half is used for working capital and RM380M (about a third) to pay over due debt , t...

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by lightsaber
Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lufthansa considering to bring back five A380 in 2022
Replies: 36
Views: 10617

Re: Lufthansa considering to bring back five A380 in 2022

A couple of sources that don't hold out much hope for the A380. https://pressinsiderdaily.com/2021/07/lufthansa-gives-airbus-a380-pilots-e-35000-bonuses-so-they-no-longer-fly/ https://industry-update.com/lufthansa-encourages-early-retirement-of-a380-crew/68520/ This could be a short term move. I su...

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by lightsaber
Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 367
Views: 60408

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Is AirAsia X worth saving? Or should they just close the airline? Not worth saving at all, liabilties are in tune of US$15.9 billion, even taking of Airbus portion the debt is still too much to stomach. Like what BOC Aviation said, the airline is hopelessly insolvent. So what would be the outcome o...

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by lightsaber
Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:56 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 1514
Views: 94079

Re: European Commission Vaccination Strategy News and Discussion Thread

I think his number is percentage of the total population and yours are adults. best regards Thomas However, as the UK won't vaccinate the age group 12 - 17 years actively, it makes no sense including less than 18 years into the discussion. Moreover, none of the vaccines is approved for under 6 year...

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by lightsaber
Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:51 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Research Indicates Four-Day Workweeks Are Win-Win
Replies: 41
Views: 1660

Re: Research Indicates Four-Day Workweeks Are Win-Win

My employer keeps pushing to work off Fridays (I just had my first off Friday in months) and Saturdays. Then they wonder at attrition... Not efficient, not after years. People are too burned out. Lightsaber The higher ups where you work clearly lack empathy. Sounds similar to the misstep reported h...

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by lightsaber
Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021
Replies: 47
Views: 8882

Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

I was surprised to find out 22 of Indigo's returned A320CEOs remain with the leasing companies: https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/topstories/where-have-all-indigo-s-ceos-gone/ar-AALw5Gn?ocid=BingNewsSearch My interpretation (and this should be no surprise) is Indigo is returning aircraft as fat as lea...

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by lightsaber
Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021
Replies: 335
Views: 46504

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

That is exactly the same argument that is repeated again and again and yet it is still there.. And what, exactly? It's a reality. I have no issue that an A220-300 generates greater revenue, but whilst the lines are running below capacity, I'm not sure that matters. Should Boeing cancel the 787-9 be...

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by lightsaber
Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:30 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 2399
Views: 161924

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

If you say NE is not vaccinated enough, we will never achieve herd immunity. If I recall correctly original plan was 70%, never 100%. I think serosurveillance is better way to measure herd immunity. Overall commonsense is lacking, even well educated families with all eligible members fully vaccinat...

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by lightsaber
Mon Jul 12, 2021 7:59 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 2399
Views: 161924

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Again, the five most populated are missing from the top 10, so here they are: Los Angeles --- 52% San Diego --- 57% Orange --- 54% Riverside --- 42% San Bernardino --- 39% Source: https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/covid-19-vaccines-distribution/ The poi...

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by lightsaber
Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:36 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 367
Views: 60408

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

It is bad when the government has to step in and prevent creditors from suing for their property. This is going to make lending to the whole nation under a new set of rules in my opinion. This actually, in my opinion, should reduce the chance of an AirAsiaX revival. https://www.reuters.com/business...

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by lightsaber
Sun Jul 11, 2021 8:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 367
Views: 60408

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

It is bad when the government has to step in and prevent creditors from suing for their property. This is going to make lending to the whole nation under a new set of rules in my opinion. This actually, in my opinion, should reduce the chance of an AirAsiaX revival. https://www.reuters.com/business...

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by lightsaber
Sun Jul 11, 2021 4:47 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021
Replies: 435
Views: 34103

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

https://i.ibb.co/Yjb2gMg/coronavirus-data-explorer-11.png This happened in 7 days. Currently, 65.3% (81% of adults) has had a first, 39,9% a second (mostly Pfizer). For now heavy on young people, but it is already working itself up through the population (all under 70 are rising now). Soon rising w...

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by lightsaber
Sun Jul 11, 2021 4:36 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Research Indicates Four-Day Workweeks Are Win-Win
Replies: 41
Views: 1660

Re: Research Indicates Four-Day Workweeks Are Win-Win

My employer keeps pushing to work off Fridays (I just had my first off Friday in months) and Saturdays. Then they wonder at attrition...

Not efficient, not after years. People are too burned out.

Lightsaber

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by lightsaber
Sun Jul 11, 2021 4:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 367
Views: 60408

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

With Delta flying some international less than daily, they have adopted a strategy that allows more granular purchasing of aircraft. The issue is the A338 doesn't cost much less per flight than the A339. That means the 789 is going to be too competitive in ranges it flies (obviously the A338 has mo...

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by lightsaber
Sun Jul 11, 2021 3:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 367
Views: 60408

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

I think the customer base the A330neo has shouldered an outsized impact from the pandemic. With few exceptions these are small operators with only a few examples per, and now these airlines are bankrupt or at the very least in no position to take new aircraft. As a lessor I can’t imagine with this ...

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by lightsaber
Sun Jul 11, 2021 2:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021
Replies: 335
Views: 46504

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

I see a lot of optimism on the fate of A220-100 and I admire people with such optimism. For them it is always about the prospect of sales in the future. I have a little bit different way of looking into it. Let's make the following observations.. The observation that you are missing is that they bo...

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by lightsaber
Sun Jul 11, 2021 1:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 367
Views: 60408

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

I am bearish on the A330NEO, but not as much as some. Delta, Virgin Atlantic, Air Belgium, Kuwait airways and others will accept A330NEOs. Oh, it is now the 717 of the widebody world which can only aspire to doing as well as the MD-11, but it isn't done. Production will continue for years. It doesn...

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by lightsaber
Sat Jul 10, 2021 8:52 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: 'Long Covid' news and discussion
Replies: 36
Views: 2516

Re: 'Long Covid' news and discussion

While I can’t say anything useful on biology, I do watch people’s behavior. Many people have been deeply scarred psychologically by the covid ordeal. There is also media messaging telling people they will never recover. That’s powerful. There is a well known phenomenon of people blaming ailments on...

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by lightsaber
Sat Jul 10, 2021 8:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021
Replies: 335
Views: 46504

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

I errored (majorly) in summing up the costs for adding a new aircraft, so starting again: Slide 9 goes into the costs for JetBlue (I believe I had a typo before) http://investor.jetblue.com/~/media/Files/J/Jetblue-IR-V2/reports-and-presentations/replacement-and-fleet-update.pdf $95 to $125 million t...

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by lightsaber
Sat Jul 10, 2021 7:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Used Delta Aircraft Order A359/737-900ER
Replies: 671
Views: 152621

Re: Rumor: Used Delta Aircraft Order

Folks, this is a used aircraft order thread. While new will compete, please take the discussion on possible new aircraft to another thread. Some history from Simple Flying about the relationships between Delta, LATAM, its creditors, and Qatar in the context of the A359s which may end up with Delta. ...

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by lightsaber
Sat Jul 10, 2021 6:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021
Replies: 335
Views: 46504

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

here is a question. As the number of airlines and aircraft increase, how much does that change the MRO cost? Intuitively, I would imagine that with enough aircraft in service, there will be more MRO providers. There will be more available spare parts? There will be more expertise on lowering mainte...

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by lightsaber
Sat Jul 10, 2021 3:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021
Replies: 335
Views: 46504

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

https://leehamnews.com/2020/01/16/air-canada-inaugurates-a220-300-service-today Speaking of AC, this is a leeham article from when it first took off. The CCO for Airbus said this about A220-300 economics when it first came out. Scherer said the A220-300 economics are better than the slightly larger...

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by lightsaber
Sat Jul 10, 2021 2:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021
Replies: 335
Views: 46504

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

The only thing we know is that the production of the first A220-100 ACJ already started. There are six orders for the A220-100 ACJ and there are two mysterious orders for A220-300 for business aircraft or government. I am not sure if the two A220-300 is part of the ACJ two twenty stuff. The must in...

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by lightsaber
Sat Jul 10, 2021 1:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021
Replies: 335
Views: 46504

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

The A220 is the natural maddog replacement. We are debating how large the market is. The reality is, they have no economical competition for the A223. As to the A220-100, it will still be offered. I expect with declining 76 seat demand (due to them being just completely out of date) that several air...

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by lightsaber
Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 367
Views: 60408

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

I am bearish on the A330NEO, but not as much as some. Delta, Virgin Atlantic, Air Belgium, Kuwait airways and others will accept A330NEOs. Oh, it is now the 717 of the widebody world which can only aspire to doing as well as the MD-11, but it isn't done. Production will continue for years. It doesn'...

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by lightsaber
Fri Jul 09, 2021 5:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021
Replies: 335
Views: 46504

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

I recently saw a presentation by Airbus selling factory time for automated production. It is quite impressive. Note, not on the A320 line, but derived obviously from Hamberg technology. This will, in my opinion, price the A220 at prior levels and be cash flow positive by 2023, if not earlier. This g...

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by lightsaber
Fri Jul 09, 2021 5:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A320neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021
Replies: 277
Views: 29246

Re: Airbus A320neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2021

Why is the the A320neo family production thread so dead? The aircraft type with the highest manufacturing and delivery rate has the most silent thread on a.net? Interesting. :scratchchin: It takes someone tracking production and delivery. I will say, I recently saw a presentation by Airbus selling ...

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by lightsaber
Fri Jul 09, 2021 4:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021
Replies: 335
Views: 46504

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

Does anybody have any idea what the current status of the A-220 business jet version is? The only thing we know is that the production of the first A220-100 ACJ already started. There are six orders for the A220-100 ACJ and there are two mysterious orders for A220-300 for business aircraft or gover...

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by lightsaber
Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021
Replies: 335
Views: 46504

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

... Source? ... Airbus' orders and deliveries spreadsheet for June. A single A220-300 order on June 4. Must be an existing customer. For people wanting the link: https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/orders-deliveries.html So net orders of 18 for 2021 for the A220. That is good. A321NEO orders pos...

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by lightsaber
Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 367
Views: 60408

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

Essentially flying current fleet into the ground so lessors can make back their money. That's not the plan at all. AAX wants the creditors (largely lessors and Airbus) to agree to wipe out $15 billion in debt in exchange for a promise to pay a grand total of $48 million several years down the road,...

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by lightsaber
Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:06 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 2399
Views: 161924

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

With Israel saying Pfizer only stopping 64% Delta infection, and Delta have a R0=5-6, it is simply not possible to stop transmission even if literally every single person are vaccinated, as in that case the R would still be (5~6)×(1-64%)=(1.8~2.15), aka in completely vaccinated environment each inf...

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by lightsaber
Thu Jul 08, 2021 11:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 367
Views: 60408

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

No source, just speculating. That's why I said it was my bet. Not good when your largest customer will not take any aircraft until at least 2027, and even 2027/28 is highly dubious. At this point Delta's order is all keeping the A330NEO going. I see a few potential orders, but I speculate that is t...

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by lightsaber
Thu Jul 08, 2021 7:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive
Replies: 367
Views: 60408

Re: AirAsia X plans overhaul to survive

After skimming the links, I am amazed how investors just keep throwing good money after bad with companies like AirAsia X. Has any industry destroyed more capital in the last 40 years than the airline industry? My bet is that AirAsia X never even starts up again. Last call for A330 will be made nex...

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by lightsaber
Thu Jul 08, 2021 7:15 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 2399
Views: 161924

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

I should add my relative in a hospital sees breakthrough cases. About 2% of the population cannot build immunity (cancer and kidney patients, HIV, or other imniosupresed). Morbidly Obese and very elderly occupy hospital beds, but make it through. People who spend a good part of a day with an infecti...

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by lightsaber
Thu Jul 08, 2021 7:04 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 2399
Views: 161924

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

Governments shouldn't punish children ie., no vaccines + no masks + no good ventilation for the mistakes of anti-vaxx adults. Goes for both UK(no pediatric vaccinations) and USA(12+ vaccination rates are low). Selectively punish adults if that's what it takes. So these experts need to say how rathe...

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by lightsaber
Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021
Replies: 335
Views: 46504

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

It is physically impossible that the trip costs are even close for the A220 and the much smaller, much lighter E175/CRJ900. Not yet, but next generation aircraft should match or beat their trip costs. I fully expect Delta, Breeze, and JetBlue to use the A220 cost advantage to push out E175/CR9 serv...

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by lightsaber
Thu Jul 08, 2021 5:14 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 2399
Views: 161924

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

And that is not looking good: normal care is being postponed again. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/breaking-two-nhs-hospitals-declare-24480715.amp?__twitter_impression=true And this is almost 2 weeks before opening up. It is clear 50% vaccinated is not enough to stop delta. Hospital admissio...

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by lightsaber
Thu Jul 08, 2021 2:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021
Replies: 335
Views: 46504

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

lightsaber wrote : The SAS and Truejet competitions will be brutal TruJet will be no competition ! from the article : to acquire fifty-four A220s - and - fifty-four E190-E2s and “Embraer will supply three aircraft every two months. The arrangement with Airbus will see one aircraft coming in every 1...

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by lightsaber
Thu Jul 08, 2021 2:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air Astana sues Embraer over E2 issues
Replies: 9
Views: 4112

Re: Air Astana sues Embraer over E2 issues

I have absolutely no insight to this issue, but it does seem that the E2 has had its fair share of teething problems. Back in 2019 before COVID I happened to observe rather regularly the on-time performance of the Widerøe E2s, and it wasn't exactly great. To my understanding, the airline had to bas...

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by lightsaber
Thu Jul 08, 2021 1:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021
Replies: 335
Views: 46504

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

It is physically impossible for a heavier, wider, more expensive aircraft with more drag, higher paid crews that work less and are 1 person larger to have a lower trip cost than a smaller, lighter, cheaper aircraft with lower paid more productive crews. Did those French Canadians make a magic aircr...

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by lightsaber
Thu Jul 08, 2021 12:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021
Replies: 335
Views: 46504

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

ALC has a conference call for 8/5/2021. They state they have placed 15 A220 (of 50). I would love to know with what airlines. In particular if not known A220 operators. https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/05/07/air-lease-corp-al-q1-2021-earnings-call-transcript/?source=eptyholnk0000...

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by lightsaber
Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:58 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 2399
Views: 161924

Re: COVID-19 Vaccine News and Discussion Thread

It matters if everyone is vaccinated. If everyone isn't vaccinated, what matters is the impact on the health system. art : Well BoJo said we should get used to more death so unfortunately it seems he expects things to get worse on that front. What should matter is hospital and intensive care capaci...

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by lightsaber
Wed Jul 07, 2021 10:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues
Replies: 271
Views: 54483

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Please do not mock other posters.

moderators have to delete all post the quote that.

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by lightsaber
Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021
Replies: 335
Views: 46504

Re: Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2021

I'm not sure I agree with the premise that market demand for sub-175 seat space is that much smaller. Airlines are only upgauging because the larger narrowbody aircraft tend to have lower CASM than smaller ones of the same family type. As time goes on, the aircraft/engine improvements seem to have ...

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by lightsaber
Wed Jul 07, 2021 6:04 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021
Replies: 435
Views: 34103

Re: COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q2 2021

We can impede as much as possible but the messaging has been horrible. I live in Canada and many of public health officials should be fired because their communication general lack of compassion and paralyzing fear is now becoming very destructive. Since most of you are Americans Fauci is similar b...

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