Search found 1427 matches

by iamlucky13
Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Speculation on CNBC that Boeing is going to Raise $30B in Equity
Replies: 53
Views: 5651

Re: Speculation on CNBC that Boeing is going to Raise $30B in Equity

I wonder how much of the raised cash will be needed to compensate for negative cash flow. Chances are high, that the 737 line, 787 line and 77X line are cash flow negative for the next year or two. This is luckily offset by 767 and 77W/Fs. That's what the debt they already took on is for. The sugge...

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by iamlucky13
Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Speculation on CNBC that Boeing is going to Raise $30B in Equity
Replies: 53
Views: 5651

Re: Speculation on CNBC that Boeing is going to Raise $30B in Equity

And what shareholder is going to allow frivolous travel expenses just for the heck of it now that they've seen the cost savings and seen proof that the company functions just fine without massive airline and hotel bills? It hasn't been seen long term that companies function just fine without busine...

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by iamlucky13
Wed Dec 16, 2020 12:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 655
Views: 81377

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

I take this article with a grain of salt. Wich accuracy can I expect when the actual real numbers for this year are not correct. An article from today wth a Bernstein Research forecast from yesterday tells us : A220 31 dliveries where as end of November already 32 deliveries took place ! A380 deliv...

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by iamlucky13
Tue Dec 15, 2020 11:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Speculation on CNBC that Boeing is going to Raise $30B in Equity
Replies: 53
Views: 5651

Re: Speculation on CNBC that Boeing is going to Raise $30B in Equity

The anchors on CNBC are discussing the rumor that Boeing is about to raise $30B in Equity to repair the balance sheet. It's not really a rumor since it came from the CFO himself. However, how serious the possibility is at this point, and how large such an equity offering might be are not clear. Her...

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by iamlucky13
Tue Dec 15, 2020 2:56 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 vaccine transport flights.
Replies: 93
Views: 16864

Re: COVID-19 vaccine transport flights.

Pfizer reported their vaccine has a shelf life of 6 months at the indicated normal storage temperature (-80 to -60 Celsius). The shipping container will keep it at that temperature for 10 days, and can be refilled with dry ice if needed. It can also be stored at conventional freezer temperatures (-...

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by iamlucky13
Tue Dec 15, 2020 1:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 vaccine transport flights.
Replies: 93
Views: 16864

Re: COVID-19 vaccine transport flights.

Will these Vaccine delivery flights be given the highest priority for taxi, takeoff and landing since timing is crucial on the lifespan of the load? Yes FAA has already stated so. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/faa-gives-priority-clearance-to-flights-carrying-covid-vaccines/amp I'm sure those in...

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by iamlucky13
Fri Dec 11, 2020 1:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020
Replies: 1835
Views: 369508

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020

But what I never completely understood is the fact that of course they had to stop the pressurisation test after the door has blown. How can they know that no other part would have failed at the load test after the door failed but still before ultimate load. Finite Element Analysis probably would h...

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by iamlucky13
Fri Dec 11, 2020 12:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020
Replies: 1835
Views: 369508

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020

They were "on track" from first flight weren't they? I don't remember what the track was at that specific point in time, but I think no. They were not on track with where they expected to be in their original schedule. They had just gotten past the engine delays, and I don't think they ha...

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by iamlucky13
Wed Dec 09, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 655
Views: 81377

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

A recent estimate sees business travel reduced by up to 36%, permanently: https://www.forbes.com/sites/benbaldanza/2020/12/01/new-study-estimates-up-to-36-of-airline-business-travel-wont-return/ Thanks for the link. That seems like a more rationale assessment than most of the discussions I see abou...

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by iamlucky13
Wed Dec 09, 2020 6:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 655
Views: 81377

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

The path forward will be determined by the recovery which needs the vaccines. I know doctors scheduled for vaccination on December 15th. But it takes vaccinating 3/4s of the population to matter, that will take time and it is slow season. We can only hope the US, UK, and EU are vaccinated enough by...

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by iamlucky13
Mon Dec 07, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 655
Views: 81377

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

Iamlucky13 summarizes the problem well, but leaves a very important question: Whose money will be tied up in wages, parts, and finished inventories if manufacturers keep building? I'm going to continue with my effectively non-committal opinion that the true production rate need is a matter of balan...

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by iamlucky13
Mon Dec 07, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 655
Views: 81377

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

Boeing further cuts 787 priduction to 5/month. https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/aircraft-propulsion/widebody-softness-triggers-boeing-787-production-cut-adds-more I remain if the opinion widebody production must be cut further. Lightsaber I'm going to continue with my effectively non-committa...

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by iamlucky13
Wed Dec 02, 2020 2:48 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020
Replies: 587
Views: 94071

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

If you put it that way, Boeing spent several billion $$ and 2 years for ... almost nothing. They could have done it like this from the very beginning for literally pocket change. I would agree with that conclusion going back even to when it started to become clear how MCAS was involved in the accid...

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by iamlucky13
Mon Nov 30, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air France Studies Stretched Airbus "A220-500"
Replies: 424
Views: 75372

Re: AF-KLM Evaluates A220, A321 and MAX for Fleet Renewal

However, if Airbus creates the A225, I wonder if AF can have the A220 family only for its narrowbody fleet, with its current network. I had a mental error reading that. However, it did not take me very long at all to conclude that Airbus was not partnering with Antonov on serial production of the w...

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by iamlucky13
Wed Nov 25, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX
Replies: 441
Views: 50192

Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

MCAS caused the two crashes and the subsequent near two year grounding. It should have been ripped out of the MAX completely back in March 2019, not rehashed with a version 2. Boeing was weeks away from releasing a fixed MCAS 2.0 when the second crash happened. Boeing and FAA made a terrible decisi...

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by iamlucky13
Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020
Replies: 1835
Views: 369508

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020

Yes he has a contract, and it made it's position clear a year or so ago, EK will not take delivery of the plane until it is fully certified and compliant to the spec EK signed for. The 777-X programme qualification and certification process isn't finished and like any new programm in industry, it m...

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by iamlucky13
Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX
Replies: 441
Views: 50192

Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Can I ask where this rumour came from that this aircraft is not stable without MCAS and or pitches up without MCAS. It is evident now that both those theories are completely false. Speculation before clear information was available by journalists and by members of forums that, for better or worse, ...

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by iamlucky13
Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:26 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX
Replies: 441
Views: 50192

Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Say what?? If they had failed to come up with a solution to their problem but still completed the flight safely that would be lucky. But they did come up with a relevant and effective solution to a problem they had never trained for and no one had seen before. That's good. Neither crew knew about M...

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by iamlucky13
Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX
Replies: 441
Views: 50192

Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

Stitch has an excellent post on page three in this thread pointing out (again and again, I might say) how highly experienced "western" crews lost the airframe with old MCAS config time and time again in the SIM. Those test scenarios were not the same as the accident Flights. Crews were on...

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by iamlucky13
Thu Nov 19, 2020 4:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX
Replies: 441
Views: 50192

Re: FAA ungrounds Boeing 737 MAX

If MCAS is legitimately activating (or if you previously disabled MCaS for some reason and now in a situation where it is legitimately needed) then you are probably in a situation where you want to get on the ground as soon as possible. It would probably be left up to pilot discretion though, rathe...

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by iamlucky13
Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 1% of people cause half of global aviation emissions
Replies: 118
Views: 15573

Re: 1% of pax cause 50% of emissions

Surprised no one is talking about the fact ships pollute way worse than airplanes. I guess its an easy target for the media and environmentalists. Google Bunker C oil.... its nasty nasty nasty stuff. And cheap. overall it seems the aviation industry is doing well to reduce emissions (and noise!). D...

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by iamlucky13
Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 1% of people cause half of global aviation emissions
Replies: 118
Views: 15573

Re: 1% of pax cause 50% of emissions

Airlines produced a billion tonnes of CO2 and benefited from a $100bn (£75bn) subsidy by not paying for the climate damage they caused Since I don't imagine most people would care much about updated estimates from the current US administration, it is worth noting that the EPA under the Obama admini...

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by iamlucky13
Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 1% of people cause half of global aviation emissions
Replies: 118
Views: 15573

Re: 1% of pax cause 50% of emissions

Surprised no one is talking about the fact ships pollute way worse than airplanes. I guess its an easy target for the media and environmentalists. Google Bunker C oil.... its nasty nasty nasty stuff. And cheap. overall it seems the aviation industry is doing well to reduce emissions (and noise!). D...

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by iamlucky13
Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:48 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AS 737 hits a bear in YAK
Replies: 65
Views: 11957

Re: AS 737 hits a bear in YAK

Serious question, in a case like this do Alaskans make good use of the bear meat? I mean why waste it right? I knew someone who hit two elk in Oregon, and I remember the news article on the incident saying the meat was salvaged for food bank. From what I have heard, however, while this was pretty c...

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by iamlucky13
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AS 737 hits a bear in YAK
Replies: 65
Views: 11957

Re: AS 737 hits a bear in YAK

bennett123 wrote:
So what will they do with the cub?.


Teach it to play the flute for the circus. He will become a piper cub.

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by iamlucky13
Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:17 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we see another wave of new airlines post-covid?
Replies: 9
Views: 1340

Re: Will we see another wave of new airlines post-covid?

Cheap aircraft could definitely be available long enough to enable it. I think there will be investment money available. With the stock market overall seeing high price-to-earnings ratios even before the pandemic, and low bond rates, investors are on the lookout for opportunities to beat the low exp...

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by iamlucky13
Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 655
Views: 81377

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

Breaking news: the BBC is reporting that Pfizer has announced that its Covid-19 vaccine has achieved >90% protection against infection from a trial of some 44K people in a number of different countries. It claims it will have 50M vaccines by year end, and 1.3B next year https://www.bbc.com/news/hea...

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by iamlucky13
Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:50 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Boeing sells yacht
Replies: 25
Views: 7280

Re: Boeing sells yacht

People have been saying that Boeing needs to reconnect with their roots.

Plant 1 was a boatyard before William Boeing bought it.

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by iamlucky13
Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:52 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 655
Views: 81377

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

Just for reference, Boeing plans to go to 31/month (370 year vs. Rate 40 at Airbus 430/year or rate 47 of 500/year, Boeing has 12 month years with trivial rounding). https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/poll-boeings-plan-restore-737-production-31month-2022 This link claims on 60 max currently to ...

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by iamlucky13
Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest maybe considering an Airbus order
Replies: 637
Views: 107599

Re: Southwest maybe considering an Airbus order

I have mixed feelings about this. I hate to see my home team lose the exclusivity with their most prominent customer. However, I've thought for years that as the narrowbody upgauging trend continues, Southwest would likely reach a point where it makes sense to have a smaller aircraft to serve their ...

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by iamlucky13
Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020
Replies: 587
Views: 94071

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

Then why did it activate multiple times and continue to push the nose down when uncommanded.......what was it trying to prevent if not a stall? That was already explained in the post you quoted. The distinction that people seem to be missing is that MCAS helps a pilot fly intuitively at near stall ...

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by iamlucky13
Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020
Replies: 587
Views: 94071

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q4 2020

So will FAA require third AoA sensor like EASA is? If I understood the reporting correctly, the EASA is open to Boeing demonstrating synthetic airspeed as the means to provide data to allow MCAS to determine whether or not to activate in case of a large discrepancy between both AoA sensors. I'm not...

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by iamlucky13
Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1890
Views: 192947

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

The Seattle Times says Boeing does not have enough cash or the right talent to develop a brand new design. Also, the article says the current product lineup is uncompetitive and it is not what the airlines need. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/as-boeing-struggles-to-stay-comp...

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by iamlucky13
Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken
Replies: 655
Views: 81377

Re: The case for more aircraft production cuts/playing chicken

Interesting analysis piece at: https://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKL8N2HE4S5 Insiders said Airbus aims to give suppliers a clear path forwards. Many are unhappy about being asked to take a risk on higher parts production without proof of demand, but [b]Airbus is squeezing them to do more by using fl...

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by iamlucky13
Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020
Replies: 1835
Views: 369508

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020

If they really wanted to get those numbers up, they would fly all 4 planes every day instead of one or 2 a day As far as I know, the goal really is not hours, it is specific test plans completed. Watching previous programs like the 787, CSeries, and A350, it seems they typically have an initial est...

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by iamlucky13
Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1890
Views: 192947

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

UNICEF is expecting to have 500 million doses in their stockpile by the end of the year, Point of order, UNICEF is expecting to have 500 million syringes , not doses, by the end of the year. My mistake. That is correct. Vaccine production is underway ahead of approval, though, with big targets. Mod...

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by iamlucky13
Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1890
Views: 192947

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

I think with Covid19 vaccine not coming in big quantities making it possible to demand a vaccine certificate before traveling before end of 2021 or 2022 aviation industry will be on life support until 2023. I have not seen many comments from officials about the possibility of requiring certificates...

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by iamlucky13
Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1890
Views: 192947

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Boeing's cash situation must be quite strained...not to talk of its indebtedness...is the NMA project actually still an ongoing endeavour or is it surviving on a skeleton staff...one would think that project milestones have all been deferred out to a rather distant future... Anyone in the know?... ...

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by iamlucky13
Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:04 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Anyone have the story of a jumbo landing emergency and seats had to be removed to get plane out?
Replies: 61
Views: 12578

Re: Anyone have the story of a jumbo landing emergency and seats had to be removed to get plane out?

Although not a jumbo jet, in 1962, a United DC-8 mistakenly landed on the 4,461 foot long runway at Troutdale airport in Oregon, instead of the 8,800 foot long runway at PDX, 9 miles to the west and roughly in line with the smaller airport. It is typically claimed that the seats were removed in orde...

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by iamlucky13
Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Considers Selling Seattle-Area Jetliner Headquarters
Replies: 74
Views: 13229

Re: Boeing Considers Selling Seattle-Area Jetliner Headquarters

Boeing should build a new office at Paine Field. Make it in the form of an airport terminal, with concourses for offices and the tower for a conference room. The Everett Delivery Center is sort of like a small airport terminal, with the windows providing a wrap-around view of the aircraft to be del...

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by iamlucky13
Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Considers Selling Seattle-Area Jetliner Headquarters
Replies: 74
Views: 13229

Re: Boeing Considers Selling Seattle-Area Jetliner Headquarters

I think this should be clear evidence that COVID-19 has created a new normal, one that is not beneficial for airliner manufacturers. Note that the article did not mention moving BCA executives to Chicago. It's more than just work-from-home adjustments. I would guess that at this stage Boeing's real...

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by iamlucky13
Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: PAE (Everett) Commercial Passenger Service News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 381
Views: 58795

Re: PAE (Everett) Commercial Passenger Service News and Discussion Thread

I am hoping to see this airport get back to “normal” in a year or so if AS keeps using smaller a/c... if 737s, it could take a while but AS is best positioned to make it work I've only flown out of PAE once, but I have to wonder about how that (very nice) terminal would handle 737s vs E175s. I know...

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by iamlucky13
Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Pictures of stored aircraft due to COVID/groundings
Replies: 9
Views: 1576

Re: Commercial airports with stored (Covid) aircrafts on Google Maps

I don't have Google Maps suggestions, but you can do a a.net photo search for recent photos of many of the airports commonly used for storage or that serve as hubs. At the latter, though, I think they tend to mostly be parked at their normal gates. Victorville 6101867,6107271,6132829 6023143 Pinal A...

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by iamlucky13
Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: PAE (Everett) Commercial Passenger Service News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 381
Views: 58795

Re: PAE (Everett) Commercial Passenger Service News and Discussion Thread

I just looked at this thread on a phone screen and realized my post above does not display well on narrow screens. Sorry about that, but since the forum software does not seem to have a table option, using the monospaced code format seemed like a decent way to create a fake table. Turning your phone...

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by iamlucky13
Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:25 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: PAE (Everett) Commercial Passenger Service News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 381
Views: 58795

Re: PAE (Everett) Commercial Passenger Service News and Discussion Thread

I looked up the DOT passenger data available so far for 2020 to get a snapshot of how loads have varied. The data has only been released through June, but the terminal was shutdown mid-May through late July. This is for departures only. The number of available seats / flight rates started to be redu...

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by iamlucky13
Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:33 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: PAE (Everett) Commercial Passenger Service News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 381
Views: 58795

Re: Update on PAE (Everett) Commercial Passenger Service

Another minor update: Alaska is proceeding with the previously announced plan to increase Paine Field service back to 6 flights per day by winter. United is currently operating a single flight most days to Denver. Everett Herald Article (first half is about possible pro-hockey team use of Paine Fiel...

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by iamlucky13
Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing releases new CMO (Current market outlook)
Replies: 61
Views: 8143

Re: Boeing releases new CMO (Current market outlook)

Cutting the forecast how Boeing did highlights how production was too frontloaded. Honestly, I think too many lost the ability to read between the lines. Boeing is broadcasting layoffs without stating where and when. It seems like more layoffs would be coming, but if so, why wait? I understand Airb...

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by iamlucky13
Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:40 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing releases new CMO (Current market outlook)
Replies: 61
Views: 8143

Re: Boeing releases new CMO (Current market outlook)

The question this leaves me with is, how is Boeing going to respond to its own outlook? Boeing's current strength is in widebody aircraft, which is not where it's projecting demand. The numbers work out. 7,480 expected widebody deliveries over 20 years would be 31 per month on average, so if Boeing...

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by iamlucky13
Fri Oct 09, 2020 5:31 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing releases new CMO (Current market outlook)
Replies: 61
Views: 8143

Re: Boeing releases new CMO (Current market outlook)

The question this leaves me with is, how is Boeing going to respond to its own outlook? Boeing's current strength is in widebody aircraft, which is not where it's projecting demand. The numbers work out. 7,480 expected widebody deliveries over 20 years would be 31 per month on average, so if Boeing...

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by iamlucky13
Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Boeing to Consolidate 787 Production in South Carolina
Replies: 320
Views: 56385

Re: Updated: Boeing to Consolidate 787 Production in South Carolina

The Air Current ( https://theaircurrent.com/industry-strategy/moving-boeings-787-to-south-carolina-was-a-dozen-years-in-the-making/ ) reports a former Boeing executive as saying the plan has always been to move 787 production to CHS. The thought was that they would need room in PAE to build new pro...

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