Away from numbers and wrecks, an up close and for the soldiers and BBC crew, personal report from the very front line. Stunning, shocking, brave; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtqDLsNa-c4 That was intense. I've only seen a handful of videos from journalists in areas where they might face signific...
Jump to postT-55 heading to Ukraine? Recall how some question the utility of M113 that the US sent? Maybe we should have pledge a boat load of M-60s. They would have gotten to the battlefield faster and would be able to deal with these T-55 effectively. T-55 really belongs in a museum. I guess having a tank is...
Jump to postI don't know exactly what the goal is, but Medvedev seems to have been assigned the role of Minister of Hyperbole. .... At the present, it seems like his role is mainly to be a loose cannon to spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt about things Russia could in theory do, but in reality would worsen Ru...
Jump to postPolish Ambassador To France Says His Country Will Go To War With Russia If Ukraine Loses https://tsarizm.com/news/eastern-europe/2023/03/20/polish-ambassador-to-france-says-his-country-will-go-to-war-with-russia-if-ukraine-loses/ Jan Emeryk Rościszewski, Poland’s Ambassador to France, made the star...
Jump to postIn case you thought Russian aggression has its limits, think again: Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, has threatened to launch a missile strike against the International Criminal Court in The Hague , which had earlier issued an arrest warrant for Ru...
Jump to postHe's not the only one raising concerns. I haven't shared many previous such comments here, because it is difficult to translate individual comments into an overall assessment, and because it's not popular, and often misinterpreted as more broad of a criticism than intended. I think this is a good t...
Jump to postOn the Ukrainian sides, the information shared by Kupol has apparently generated a lot of negative reactions but now that he has been dismissed, many people disagree with this decision. I guess the evolution on the battle field in the next few weeks will close these debates. My take is that even if...
Jump to postFootage of the drone collision has now been released. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-64974825 To try to keep somewhat in check the issue of secondary sources incrementally recompressing videos and gradually worsening the quality, here is the original release: https://www.eucom.mil/ar...
Jump to postA senior but anonymous Wagner figure suggests a wide-scale offensive across the entire line is coming: This is somewhat of a long post by RSOTM channel admin ( anonymous senior figure in Wagner ) essentially saying Ukraine is preparing for a strike, yes, but likely along the whole frontline , citin...
Jump to postIt is said Moscow lost 15,000 men in Afghanistan in ten years, and now they've lost >4x that in one year in Ukraine. Nearly 1,200 Russian soldiers were recently killed in a single day around Bakhmut , according to Mark Milley, America’s top general , in an interview with Politico, a news website. “...
Jump to postThe MiG-17 monument prominently visible along the highway leading to Bakhmut from the west has been destroyed.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/10/7392844/
I can half imagine Russian propagandist's claiming Ukraine is so desperate that now they're even losing 1950's era fighters.
I realize people don't want to go crazy, but still, we have to at least admit Ukraine is punching well above its weight, no? Absolutely yes! That was starting to become apparent by the end of the first week of the war as they matched the VDV in Hostemel, stop the advances from the north, and had Ru...
Jump to postI'm not sure that if one country invades another which loses a fair chunk of its territory, the country gaining all that territory can realistically be termed to be losing. A country that plans to invade and capture another country's capital in three days but doesn't, is losing. A country who lost ...
Jump to postAs this piece explains, it can be hard to discern the real level of Russian support, not just 'support' borne out of fear. I suspect a majority still do, I also think it's only going to go in one direction, certainly after more than a year, hence the attempt of messaging the 'we are fighting NATO' ...
Jump to postThe following article is initially about how Switzerland's neutrality policy extending to arms exports and even re-exports, is affecting their arms industry, but it also summarizes many of the instances it has affected support for Ukraine. https://breakingdefense.com/2023/03/the-cost-of-neutrality-s...
Jump to postUkraine's military says Russia fired 81 missiles at its cities overnight, in what was the biggest strike in weeks. In a post on Telegram, it adds that 34 cruise missiles were successfully shot down, as well as the four of the eight Iranian-made Shahed drones that were sent. https://www.bbc.co.uk/ne...
Jump to postNATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday said he can't rule out that Russian forces will soon take over the eastern city of Bakhmut. https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-03-08-23/index.html I think that the part of Bakhmut east of the river is already in Wagn...
Jump to postDoes it need to tanker all the hydrogen for the flight or could it take off with some; and then make more as needed on the way by splitting water vapor it encounters in the atmosphere along its flight path? Doing that would require some other energy source, such as jet fuel. It would be a net negat...
Jump to postIf you try to search social media on your own for information on the war, such as by specific cities, you will very quickly start to encounter the Russian propaganda that gets moderated out of most feeds. Some of it fills in the difficulties Ukraine faces their leadership doesn't want to publish. Mo...
Jump to posthttps://youtu.be/GhktiRFNpUY So if Abrams tanks for Ukraine is already at German port, then they should be ready for the Spring offensive. These could also be for US forces. And the video is mistaken. The US is periodically rotating equipment in and out of Europe as part of our deterrence commitmen...
Jump to postPrigozhin has complained that the Russian ministry of defence is not supporting Wagner’s efforts in terms of men and ammunition. “If the private mercenary force Wagner retreats from Bakhmut, the whole front will crumble … to the Russian borders and maybe further,” said Prigozhin in a video address ...
Jump to postProgress Update on the 777X: EASA has dropped its flight control system changes for the 777X and has instead told Boeing to monitor the 777X for the first few years to see how the system performs. This is a key breakthrough and has been one of the major stumbling blocks for the program." How c...
Jump to postIf anyone is curious where Russia is worried Ukraine's next major counteroffensive effort will be, there is an attempt at tracking their fortification work here: https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1631689965376503817 (Linked to Twitter source for credit. Click through to get the Google Maps version)
Jump to postHere's a closeup of one of the larger multi-copter drones I've seen weaponized, with a relatively sophisticated munitions dispenser: https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1629902945864110083?cxt=HHwWhsC-qf-Fyp4tAAAA I was able to track this down as a Chinese-made agricultural spray drone. It has a...
Jump to postThe Russians are now seriously starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel equipment-wise. Trucks were spotted in the occupied territories carrying BTR-50s. These were built between 1954 (!) and 1970, and they've been out of service for decades. https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/162869529655214489...
Jump to postAnyone familiar with Oryx will enjoy this:
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... 5563207682
To be fair, I'm not certain the twitter analyst crowd is very rigorous in their tracking. For example, if the Western Military District claims to have destroyed one, and the Ministry of Defense repeats the claim, it's not clear to me if the twitter analysts are noting that as one claim or two. Eith...
Jump to postRussia has reportedly destroyed 2 more HIMARS this week, bringing to the total to 260% of the total delivered to Ukraine: https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1628097360621453312 If the numbers seem "inflated," perhaps this is why: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1628477488576843777 T...
Jump to postI'm not sure how Ukraine will best utilize JDAM's, but getting maximum range out of them means release at high altitudes, I'm curious about that also. The technique I envision was a Mig can launch the JDAM in a ballistic trajectory. But 70+ km seems quite long for a winged bomb. Rail tracks or brid...
Jump to postAlright fellas, let the speculation begins. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/21/2154264/-Ukraine-reportedly-hits-targets-in-Mariupol-other-cities?utm_campaign=recent The part about Ukrainian striking targets in the south and the rumors of possible JDAM use. If they are truly starting to use ...
Jump to postFor those who might be curious for the details about what Putin is saying in one of his most significant annual speeches, and near the anniversary of the start of the war, the Kremlin has posted an English transcript here: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/70565 Many news articles ha...
Jump to postWith Ukrainian troops currently firing up to 6,000 artillery shells a day to fight Russia, the USA and allies are needing to vastly increase their ammunition production rate: On the topic of artillery, I took a relatively detailed look at the supply situation last month, which I shared elsewhere, a...
Jump to postWith Ukrainian troops currently firing up to 6,000 artillery shells a day to fight Russia, the USA and allies are needing to vastly increase their ammunition production rate: On the topic of artillery, I took a relatively detailed look at the supply situation last month, which I shared elsewhere, a...
Jump to postHere's a couple select Twitter posts I found very interesting about the experience of a soldier, Roman Trokhymets, who is currently stationed near Bakhmut. My understanding is Roman is a psychologist who joined the army after the war started. He speaks English and periodically posts videos from his ...
Jump to postImpact of 155mm artilery deployed mines. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/13/2152710/-Ukraine-update-The-obscure-unheralded-weapon-that-won-the-Battle-of-Vuhledar. These mine can be deployed as needed and re-deployed in the same area if Russian tanks blow holes in the mine field . Many of th...
Jump to postRisking overflying and potentially crashing over a NATO country, do they want to get Article 5'd, or more likely put more determination and clear hurdles quicker for arms provision? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/09/russia-launches-drone-and-missile-attacks-in-south-and-east-ukraine It ...
Jump to postThe EU is sick of Russia pretending to be the victim. EU calls on Russia to stop ‘absurd' claims of victimhood in war against Ukraine. “There is no doubt that this Russian aggression is illegal under international law,” the EU delegation said in a statement during an Organization for Security and C...
Jump to post. But, I suspect Kyiv does not believe that time is on Ukraine's side. Wary of Russian entrenchment and seeking to avoid the perception of a stalemate, UA is likely to move sooner than later. That's been the trend thus far. Western equipment may not arrive in time to be relevant for a UA offensive,...
Jump to postHere's an interesting Twitter thread by Michael Koffman , a civilian analyst for the DoD specializing in the Russian armed force. He was born in Kyiv, but immigrated to the US after the breakup of the USSR. Here he discusses prospects for the next few months of the war. He mentions in passing a poin...
Jump to postA moderately interesting WSJ article about the Russian plans to build a factory in Russia for Iranian-designed drones got me thinking about one part of Russia's long term strategy: https://www.wsj.com/articles/moscow-tehran-advance-plans-for-iranian-designed-drone-facility-in-russia-11675609087?redi...
Jump to postProbably a question for Kanban or Spetsnaz55 - As it’s been pre-787 since I toured the Everett site, what are the clearances in the (old) 787 bay? Specifically, would it be possible to run two parallel MAX lines in that one bay? My quick math tells me they’d need @ 40’ total of clearance to run the...
Jump to postIt seems to me that your government is listening to your advice when it comes to SDBs! From what I know about government procurement and production system, my Government probably had the ball rolling before I even mentioned it here on A-net. Although I admit that I was aware of this capability befo...
Jump to postAs for air support for ground troops, GLSBD can do some of that. There is a short write in on the KOZ web site on the versatility of GLSBD. GLSDB is a different beast. The key words from that video up above are “launcher-independent.” While the GLSDB can be fired from a MLRS launcher, it can also b...
Jump to postMaterially, nothing prevented the provision last summer of the equipment now being provided. Materially, nothing prevented the POTUS from launching every ICBM we have at the Kremlin and every other Russian military target in our databases either. Neither were ever going to happen. I see no producti...
Jump to postNothing was compromised because the hypothetical line of action was not possible. Materially, nothing prevented the provision last summer of the equipment now being provided. It was the decision of the political leaders not to do so. That doesn't have to be treated as a blame game. Any competent le...
Jump to postThe strategic and tactical reality in the midst of these political considerations is that the course of action we chose compromised the hypothetical aim of shortening the war. Nothing was compromised because the hypothetical line of action was not possible. Materially, nothing prevented the provisi...
Jump to postIf the West’s aim had been to shorten the war by speeding Ukraine’s liberation of occupied territory, the assessment that stocks of Soviet-era weapons held by friendly states were running low should have triggered a fundamental change in the provision of Western aid starting in June 2022 ...The Wes...
Jump to postLess is mentioned on how Tawain defense will be weakened in order to support Ukraine with the M1 tank diversion. I'm sure Taiwan was pressured and a sweet deal was probably made to delay the delivery. And they will have a strong ally in Ukraine for the foreseeable future. You have to ask yourself h...
Jump to postThe Institute for the Study of War skipped one of their daily campaign assessments this week to instead publish their assessment of the impacts of the slow provision of western military aid to Ukraine. They're saying many of the things I have been thinking over the last month or two, and that not a ...
Jump to postIn our family's latest round of purchases, ICE's made the most sense for us, but I have little doubt that the next round will be EV. However, it will be a decade or more before we're part of the sales statistics again. And this was without the sub-20k car that would be announced by Musk on Investor ...
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