Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Regarding fighter jets the main questions I see would be: Given the already relatively depleted state of the ukrainian air force, how much more wear and attrition without resupply would the allies consider "acceptable" during the ongoing fighting, given that Russia will of course see an op...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Shoot the messenger why don't you? Because I didn't. Eyal didn't provide any actual message, just regurgitated tabloid headlines, basically. As I noted further and linked, this Dr's credentials in international relations and European affairs is very extensive, None of that was in evidence in his sh...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Facts: 1. We now have a coordinated westerm MBT delivery decision (with the UK unfortunately failing to be on board, but close enough) with coordinated Leo 2 deliveries. UK was motivated to offer Challengers in part because there was no confirmed decision for any other western MBT to be supplied. H...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

par13del wrote:

Just to add, I stand by my initial point, Leopards will be the first western MBT's (not remanufactured Soviet models) delivered to Ukraine, I have bet's on that, definitely before M1's.

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

And then we have the later statement from the German government that they never linked the Leopard decision to the Abrams decision, not for one second, it's posted in this thread. That was based on an uncredited backchannel rumour , on nothing else, which is nevertheless taken at face value around ...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

It was the moving of the goalposts, that rankled, as mention more than once, Germany has lost out politically and with influence in this and I suspect many in Germany know this and also know the Chancellor is by nature a dither. You're again falling for a rumour-based narrative there which isn't ac...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Neglected to add, the USA had started moving forward its schedule of delivery of M1 tanks to Poland to allow them to donate Leopards presently in use to Ukraine, my money in Vegas is on a bet that no Leopards will be delivered until M1's for Ukraine are in Europe then there will be a quick delivery...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

On the timing of the M1 deliveries: Not surprising that they had not been planning for this before so it will take a substantial amount of time to complete, even if I would expect them to find ways to accelerate it if needed. I see no evidence of deliberately drawing it out at this early stage. On t...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

This is a piece from the RUSI, it is not German bashing, it does however highlight a consequence of the war, a reduction of German influence; https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/29/amid-the-smoke-of-war-power-in-europe-is-shifting-decisively-to-the-east The only thing this shallow op...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

No, there's at least one prolific poster on here who says it all the time. No, that is only your own false claim. The EU and NATO are complementary to each other, not replacements for each other as I've explained to you several times by now. I'm not even talking about you. Not everything is about y...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Well someone needs to tell Klaus that he should stop watching those Hollywood movies, he seems to think that the only offensive weapons around that are not being supplied to Ukraine is the ATACMs, and that is being done by you know who.............folks on the other side of the pond who will not ha...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

For some of those who keep saying how important the EU is in Europe, and not NATO, it seems like all the major suppliers of arms are NATO members but several of the larger ones are not EU members. The number of people saying that is zero , so your point is moot. Take your strawmen somewhere else. N...

Re: NATO and related topics discussion

Shocker: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/27/burning-of-quran-in-stockholm-funded-by-journalist-with-kremlin-ties-sweden-nato-russia Burning of Qur’an in Stockholm funded by journalist with Kremlin ties Permit for demonstration at which anti-Islam provocateur burned Muslim holy book was pa...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

It seems remarkably illogical to think that you are entitled to use all the conventional weapons you can get your hands on to fight a war (Russia) but your opponent (Ukraine) is not entitled to do as you do. Give it time. The pathway for F-16 is being laid. ATACMS may be a "red line" item...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Ukraine was given shorter-range equipment when the goal was to stop the Ruzzian advance. At that point in time the donors weren't very sure of how well Ukraine would cope with the situation and didn't want to donate a lot of expensive equipment that could easily end up in the wrong hands. My impres...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Well someone needs to tell Klaus that he should stop watching those Hollywood movies, he seems to think that the only offensive weapons around that are not being supplied to Ukraine is the ATACMs, and that is being done by you know who.............folks on the other side of the pond who will not ha...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

johns624 wrote:

For some of those who keep saying how important the EU is in Europe, and not NATO, it seems like all the major suppliers of arms are NATO members but several of the larger ones are not EU members.

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

We in the US have our guilt to share on this front: what we call the Department of Defense was more accurately named in the past as the Department of War, and the more mentally agile among us will note that the US has never had a Department of Peace. At the very least since Orwell's 1984 that name ...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Except Europe and all other experts state that the best option for Ukraine is Leopards, and those available can be given immediately versus waiting months for the USA M1's. Sure, we've talked about that. But the same maximum available number of Leopards at each time plus additional M1s is still bet...

Re: NATO and related topics discussion

That's all good and dandy and one can appreciate it when detached from everything else. Sure, you can tell your best friend that he is lazy, that he doesn't take a shower, that he talks too much, etc, and he probably will take it being your best friend. But if you are trying to get a big favor from...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

The bad optics here: 1. The USA does not use Leopards 2. The co-ordination between them when they were being designed fell through so we have Leopards and M1, long reads on why no joint tank. 3. The Leopards are in Europe, do not need US ships or C-17 / C-5's for deployment 4. The US seemed willing...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

I gotta say, it is weird living in a world where the GOP's love of authoritarian hero figures and MAGA's love of adolescent contrarianism line up so well with Putin's words and deeds. Ronald Regan is spinning in his grave, but in today's context he'd be viewed as a somewhat conservative Democrat, m...

Re: NATO and related topics discussion

Right now I think there is lots of emotional bluster from Erdogan and from his right wing followers and allies about a swedish right-wing nitwit exploiting Sweden's liberal laws by publicly burning a quran exactly as an intentional provocation to Turkey and He is Danish and not Swedish. His permits...

Re: NATO and related topics discussion

W or w/o ergodan, turkey will not leave NATO. Why ? They see what is happening to the north and notice Russia never says they are being beaten by the EU. NATO is what Russia fears. Imagine this situation in Ukraine w a strong EU and no NATO? You're again confusing things – Ukraine is not supported ...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Just a thought: are there many road bridges in Ukraine able to take the weight of a main battle tank? Contrary to bridges in western Europe (where the western MBTs had been intended for territorial defense) smaller ukrainian bridges may not be up to the same maximum loads, so they may need to be mo...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

I see it quite the opposite. IMO the linkage between the Abrams and the Leopard was a failure on the part of German Ruzzia-lovers who knew the US was against sending Abrams. They thought this would prevent the Leopards being approved, but in the real world what happened is that it made the US recon...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

And I acknowledge your predictions on where things would end up turned out to be correct. Thanks. Yet, overall, I feel Germany could have come out of all this looking like a leader, but instead looks like a reluctant partner who needs to be goaded into action. Which wasn't really the case, the poli...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

I don't see US rockets hitting anywhere in Russia. But I can see Ukrainian rockets built with US tech doing that job. I agree – that is a crucial distinction under the circumstances, and a plausible scenario given what we've already seen with the Neptune cruise missiles sinking the Moskva, the dron...

Re: NATO and related topics discussion

Maybe if the Turkish people and their leadership really want this, we should respect that wish. It's their choice in any case, nothing other countries can or should do about it, since NATO membership is strictly voluntary. Ukraine will be happy to take that vacated slot if this should indeed come t...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Ignorance? It's based on having lived 60 years with the threat of Nuclear destruction, and 40 years of working in the defence industry has told me. For a start the EU hasn't existed for 75 years. We have a separate thread to continue these specific discussions where I have responded to your post: h...

Re: NATO and related topics discussion

Ignorance? It's based on having lived 60 years with the threat of Nuclear destruction, and 40 years of working in the defence industry has told me. Neither of which has anything to do with peace , just with the ability to initiate or possibly deter destruction. That is not peace , that is at best a...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Klaus, to be correct, theories have to explain all the data and your theory about the EU ensuring European security does explain the Balkan. The Balkan’s was a microcosm of how almost every small conflict turned into major conflicts prior to NATO NATO can't actually achieve peace , only end and sup...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

It is certainly optimal to have a solid allied consensus in the matter, but while especially M1 may not be logistically optimal for Ukraine Not optimal, but may be sufficient for the Southern Offensive. It is only 150km from the front line to the coast. If the M1 can keep operating for about a week...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

If you know, could anything else be used as a bridging tank eg Leo 2, M1? Or are they type-specific? I can't claim to be an expert, but my understanding is that bridging / pontoon vehicles should be usable either way because the western MBTs are in the same weight class (above the russian ones) and...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

What all the screaming a gnashing of teeth did was to get Biden to commit to M1 tanks sooner than the US military would have liked. Chalk that up to good German negotiation. We'll have wait for the US announcement to see how much consession did Biden give in. Whether it's more than token and whethe...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

The existence of NATO and the threat of Mutually Assured Destruction is what has prevented wars between major nations for the last 75 years. And not just in Europe. The existence of the EU is not a factor in that whatsoever. Speak softly, but carry a big stick, as they say. Which is where the relev...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Again, I find it interesting that DW called their own government out for poor communication of their concerns. Why? Public broadcasters in Germany are independent of the government, as they should be, and don't hold back with criticism, as they shouldn't, they are just held to general journalistic ...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Elsewhere in Europe, the communists have changed name (Workers' Party in Belgium) and/or have joined the green parties which are sometimes referred to as the watermelon parties (green on the outside, red on the inside, red being the color of the socialist/communist parties - just in case it's not o...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

So it turns out it's going exactly as I had predicted: • as expected it was apparently the Ramstein meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group where the agreement was made to start supplying western main battle tanks to Ukraine • There actually wasn't a mad scramble of all or nearly all Leopard 2 operator...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

johns624 wrote: So the Germans don't want their tanks used against Russia because of WW2, It's a wide consensus that we would much prefer to avoid that for exactly those reasons... Kind of strange argument on a technicality. These German tanks were designed and specifically built to kill Russians. ...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

So the Germans don't want their tanks used against Russia because of WW2, It's a wide consensus that we would much prefer to avoid that for exactly those reasons... but are happy with the Russians invade Ukraine and kill Ukrainians, who per capita were more likely to be killed by Germans in WW2 tha...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

So you are saying that this war, happening now, has its roots somehow in WW2? Yes, and most ukrainians are acutely aware of their own history including the atrocities committed against them by historical Russia, by nazi Germany during WWII, after that in Stalin's Soviet Union and now again by Putin...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

How is any of this relevant to this discussion? Its a serious question. Why are Stalin and the Third Reich even being argued about here? That was actually part of why the war today is being fought at all, part of Olaf Scholz's SPD's reluctance on providing weapons of war at all and specifically ger...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

MOSCOW, Jan 19 (Reuters) - An ally of President Vladimir Putin warned NATO on Thursday that a defeat of Russia in Ukraine could trigger a nuclear war... Given that that is their primary / last trump card it is not surprising that they're trying to parade it, even while such a first strike would com...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Actually, my post flew over your head. It's hard to imagine a scenario where the USSR would lose six million of its own people after 1942 if Stalin had just done what his ideology demanded and supported the efforts against the Nazis in 1939! That was simply not the topic being discussed. What I had...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Okay, if prejudiced bashing is the only thing going on here I have no more time for this.

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

SRQLOT wrote:

So what happened with this “well nobody sent Germany a request to send Leopards to Ukraine”!!

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

It's time for Biden to play his hand and give Ukraine a token platoon of M1s. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/berlin-will-allow-exports-german-tanks-ukraine-if-us-sends-its-tanks-source-2023-01-18/ Germany will allow German-made tanks to be sent to Ukraine to help its defense against Russia if...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

You'll need a lot of cooperation between the various Leopard 2 user community to create a pool of common tanks that the Ukrainians can make use of, and support them in the long term, which is a major sticking point right now. Yes, which adds to the need for coordination instead of just a drip, drip...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Holy simplified narratives, man! Actually no – my post flew over your head in multiple ways at the same time already and you should really cool off quite a bit before posting again. I only and specifically addressed the point of which forces were instrumental in the defeat of the Third Reich, and t...