I would use the following considerations;
Do they have a reasonable number of new generation types on order/in service. By that, I mean post F-16 designs-which I regard as the (still highly effective) template of multi role combat aircraft since?
Does the
AF have at least plenty of reasonably modern/effective types in full operational service?
Do they have a robust training programme-what's the average annual flight hours of operational crews?
Do they have recent combat experience?
Do they have these core capabilities-
1)
AD against
SU-27 series aircraft.
2) Ability to deliver PGM's against at least reasonably well defended targets-that could include just decent SAM's, as well as fighters.
3) Ability to deploy at least one squadron (let's use an 18 aircraft baseline for that) rapidly, well outside the NATO area, with the ability to be operational if not on arrival, then at least within a few days.
4} Ability to support this sort of deployment with only minimal use of leased/ friendly forces support aircraft.
5) Ability to do as 4), with at least a battalion of ground troops.
6) Even if operated by the Army, not the
AF, a modern generation attack helicopter capability.
7) For nations with substantial coastlines, do they have a decent maritime aircraft? Baseline here being post Atlantique 1/P-
3C, or fairly recently and modernised earlier versions of the Orion.
8) Do their combat aircraft have decent
EW/countermeasures-that is, established use of ECM pods, decoy dispensers, a bonus for ARM capability.
9) Do their combat pilots regularly take part in exercises, that includes instrumented air to air combat ranges, against other
AF's with dissimilar types, use of NATO facilities/large exercises, is a bonus here.
10) Has the
AF active programmes in the following;
A) UAV/UCAV
B) Network enabled ability
The UK and France has all of the 10, the UK with more combat experience, a bigger transport capability, the BAe ALARM ARM is better (and proven) , than anything France seems to have right now.
Germany has them too, but with far less combat experience, like France, until A400M arrives in numbers, transport ability is substantially less than the RAF's. Germany scores above France with Tornado ECR.
Tornado also giving them (and the UK and Italy), a better longer range strike ability, even allowing for Tornado's age now. Within that, the UK has the most modernised, most combat used fleet, Germany though is doing upgrades, Italy is starting too.
Italy has all the above too, Spain mostly so, but not quite all.
Clearly smaller European nations, are at an in built disadvantage, so another category, we'll call 'ability to punch above their weight!'
Meaning not only national size, but even with a quite small front line fleet, a demonstrated ability to deploy often and effectively on operations.
The Netherlands does really well here. Cold War, they had just a very small fleet as F-27's as transports, now KDC-10's, C-130's. Helicopters like
CH-47, Super Puma,
AH-64D. Cold War, aside from the Navy, they just had Alouette III's.
So critics of the much reduced F-16 numbers, I think are missing the point, why have 'enough' but meaning investment in post Cold War assets, means you cannot easily deploy them out of area.
As well as more funds for weapons, like modern PGM's.
Had all smaller European
AF's, done similar since 1991, the general European ability to deploy would be much better.
Denmark and Norway, smaller still as nations, are honourable mentions here too.
So, my rankings;
1) R
AF
2) French
AF
3) German
AF
4) Italy (actually not much between them and Germany).
5) Netherlands
6) Spain
7) Denmark
8) Norway
9) Greece
10) Turkey.
Greece and Turkey being at the bottom, is due to combat/operational experience being limited to each other flying similar types, so far lack of real experience in deployments, less use of NATO major exercises.
As I have said, this for me is not a numbers game, clearly the very possession of both's mainly modern fleets, general NATO infrastructure, what operations they have done, as worldwide top ranking
AF's by any measure.
To be fair, non NATO nations are at an inbuilt disadvantage in respect of operational deployment/combat experience, as well as not, until quite recently, not being involved as much in large scale exercises, dissimilar air to air.
That is all changing, but here is my 'Non NATO' top 3;
1) Swedish
AF
2) Swiss
AF
3) Austria.
Austria made it, due to doing live CAP's during Yugoslavia conflict, additions to transport fleet, Typhoons.
Finland has a very competent
AF, but was edged out due to Austrian developments.
I would fit, within the NATO list, (jointly with NATO ones for comparison), Sweden with Spain, Swiss
AF with Denmark and Austria with Greece.
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