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stasisLAX
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North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Thu Mar 26, 2009 12:38 am

The Associated Press reported this evening:

"North Korea is loading a Taepodong rocket on its east coast launch pad in anticipation of the launch of a communications satellite early next month, U.S. officials say. U.S. counterproliferation and intelligence officials have confirmed Japanese news reports of the expected launch between April 4 and 8.

North Korea announced its intention to launch the satellite in February. Regional powers worry the claim is a cover for the launch of a long-range missile capable of reaching Alaska. National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair said earlier this month that all indications suggest North Korea will in fact launch a satellite.

South Korea, the U.S. and Japan have urged North Korea to refrain from launching a satellite or missile, calling it a violation of a U.N. Security Council resolution barring the country from ballistic activity. North Korea insists it bears the right to develop its space program and on Tuesday warned the U.S., Japan and its allies not to interfere with the launch.

South Korea's chief nuclear envoy, Wi Sung-lac, said Wednesday after returning from talks with his Beijing counterparts, that a launch would trigger a response.

"If North Korea launches rocket, certain countermeasures are unavoidable," he said. He refused to elaborate, saying the measures, including any sanctions, would be discussed among U.N. Security Council member nations."

Source: http://apnews.myway.com/article/20090325/D975ALGO0.html.

Reuters is reporting that:

"U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Wednesday a potential missile launch by North Korea would be a provocative act that would have consequences for talks on Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions.

Clinton's comments came as a U.S. official said North Korea had positioned what is believed to be a long-range ballistic missile on a launch pad in what could be a preparation for a launch.

"We have made it very clear that the North Koreans pursue this pathway at a cost and with consequences to the six-party talks which we would like to see revived and moving forward as quickly as possible," she told reporters on a visit to Mexico City. "This provocative action ... will not go unnoticed and there will be consequences," she said."

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE52O78520090325

[Edited 2009-03-25 17:40:45]
 
UH60FtRucker
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Thu Mar 26, 2009 1:00 am

Shoot the frakkin' thing down.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Thu Mar 26, 2009 1:49 am



Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 1):
Shoot the frakkin' thing down.

If the North Korean vehicle passes so much as 1 inch into our territory below 59 miles, 5279 feet, and 11 inches of altitude, I'll be cheering from the sideline when we blow that sucker out of the sky.

However, if they successfully place something in orbit or reach the altitude defined to be "space" before passing over our territory, I think it's a bad precedent to begin shooting down spacecraft of other nations. Doing so would be returning one provocative act with another.
 
UH60FtRucker
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Thu Mar 26, 2009 2:28 am



Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 2):
However, if they successfully place something in orbit or reach the altitude defined to be "space" before passing over our territory, I think it's a bad precedent to begin shooting down spacecraft of other nations. Doing so would be returning one provocative act with another.

Frak that.

North Korea's ace in the hole, for the past two decades, has been it's missile technology. When you game out any conflict on the Korean peninsula,it inevitably results in a scenario where the DPRK must use it's massive missile stockpile.

In every other military aspect, aside from artillery tubes and sheer numbers, the DPRK is inferior to the ROK military, let alone the US. The only way they can bring themselves to a closer playing field, is through their missiles. Missiles tipped with biological and chemical munitions.

Why do you think the most likely time for the DPRK to attack, is in the winter? Because the chemical weapons linger on the battlefield for a prolonged period, during cold months. In effect, the winter is a force multiplier.

...So this shit has gone on long enough. It's time to demonstrate, once and for all, that we possess the technology to neutralize their ace. Not to mention, demonstrate that same ability to all the potential customers of DPRK missile technology.

-UH60
 
TheCol
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Thu Mar 26, 2009 10:54 am

Here they go again...

It's like watching that M.A.S.H episode when "5 O'Clock Charlie" tries to destroy the ammo dump. $20 says it won't make it to 30,000ft.

Anyone else want in on this?
 
MCIGuy
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Thu Mar 26, 2009 3:21 pm



Quoting TheCol (Reply 4):
Here they go again...

It's like watching that M.A.S.H episode when "5 O'Clock Charlie" tries to destroy the ammo dump. $20 says it won't make it to 30,000ft.

Anyone else want in on this?

 laughing   laughing   laughing 
ROTFL!

Agreed, but I'm sure we have cruisers and SM-3s on station, just in case.  Wink
 
osiris30
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Thu Mar 26, 2009 3:35 pm



Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 3):
Frak that.

Don't get so upset. If North Korea really f's things up, I vote for a nuclear tipped care package. North Korea is sadly a ticking time bomb, and the global economic crisis won't help at all as 'support' for them dries up. I think it's time to figure out a way to incite a revolt.
 
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stasisLAX
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Thu Mar 26, 2009 8:07 pm



Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 6):
I think it's time to figure out a way to incite a revolt.

Bad idea, IMO. What do you do with all of the brainwashed North Korean zombies, I mean "citizens"?
 
sv7887
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Thu Mar 26, 2009 8:19 pm



Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 3):
In every other military aspect, aside from artillery tubes and sheer numbers, the DPRK is inferior to the ROK military, let alone the US. The only way they can bring themselves to a closer playing field, is through their missiles. Missiles tipped with biological and chemical munitions.

This seems to be the choice weapon for tin-pot dictatorships worldwide to threaten the world. Hopefully the Ballistic Missile Defense system will get a good workout.

Anyone know the status of the Airborne Laser Program? That always excited me in terms of the technology needed to develop it, even better that it's a 747 based platform.

I hope we don't offer the North Koreans another "reset" button.
 
bennett123
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 9:01 am

StasisLAX

"North Korea is loading a Taepodong rocket on its east coast launch pad in anticipation of the launch of a communications satellite early next month, U.S. officials say"

"National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair said earlier this month that all indications suggest North Korea will in fact launch a satellite".

Am I missing something here.

These people refer to a Comms satellite and you refer to a missile.
 
UH60FtRucker
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 10:01 am



Quoting Bennett123 (Reply 9):

lol, well how else does one launch a satellite into space? Sling shot?
 
bennett123
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 10:58 am

UH60FtRucker

So which is it, "a cover for the launch of a long-range missile capable of reaching Alaska". or "North Korea is loading a Taepodong rocket on its east coast launch pad in anticipation of the launch of a communications satellite early next month, U.S. officials say"

"National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair said earlier this month that all indications suggest North Korea will in fact launch a satellite".

IMO we need to slow down a bit here.

What evidence is there that this is not a Communication satellite.
 
UH60FtRucker
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 11:30 am



Quoting Bennett123 (Reply 11):
So which is it, "a cover for the launch of a long-range missile capable of reaching Alaska". or "North Korea is loading a Taepodong rocket on its east coast launch pad in anticipation of the launch of a communications satellite early next month, U.S. officials say"

I don't know, since I didn't say either one of those things. I've stated my opinion, quite clearly.

Whether or not it is a communication satellite, is simply irrelevant. It's not about sending some stupid satellite into space, because a communication satellite is about as useful to the DPRK, as tits on a bull. You see, they could tip the damn thing with a freakin' bag of potatoes, because it's payload matters that little.

No, this is about publicly testing their most sophisticated missile, showing the international community - particularly the US - that they possess the ability to reach out and touch somebody as far away as Alaska/Guam/Hawaii, with their massive chemical and biological stockpiles.

And like I had said: if they want to play this silly dick measuring contest - lets shoot the frakking thing down, and settle this contest, once and for all.

-UH60
 
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par13del
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 11:40 am

UH60FtRucker, in your first post, if the DPRK's greatest threat to the south is their missile technology with nuclear, chemical or biological weapons, that horse has left the barn a long time ago and sending a message to them now makes no sense. The number of SSM deployed in and around the DMZ border area have enough range and volume to virtually wipe Seoul off the map, the US has finally accepted that fact and are moving thei main HQ further away out of the range of those missiles, they should have been addressed years ago, similar thing is taking place across the Taiwan straits, the Chinese deployment in time will render any coastal defenses worthless.

If the thought process is that they are developing ICBM's to reach the US, then yes, I'll agree with you that a shoot down would be a message sender. In my opinion, this is the true nature of the test, any country that can deploy a satellite into space has the capability of deploying a ICBM, its that simple.
 
bennett123
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 11:41 am

Fortuneately that will not be your call.
 
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par13del
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 12:03 pm



Quoting Bennett123 (Reply 14):
Fortuneately that will not be your call.

If the reply is directed at my post I'm afreaid I do not understand it, I never said what should or should not be done, simply gave opinions based on previous responses, now if you want to know what my response would be thats another matter.

Cheers
 
UH60FtRucker
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 12:17 pm

Quoting Bennett123 (Reply 14):

Or will it?  

Quoting Par13del (Reply 13):
The number of SSM deployed in and around the DMZ border area have enough range and volume to virtually wipe Seoul off the map, the US has finally accepted that fact and are moving thei main HQ further away out of the range of those missiles, they should have been addressed years ago, similar thing is taking place across the Taiwan straits, the Chinese deployment in time will render any coastal defenses worthless.

You're very wrong.

First, the DPRK will not use their missiles to "obliterate" Seoul. The missiles would primarily be used to attack strategic sites, such as bases, depots, major lines of communication, etc. Their doctrine leaves the missiles at an asset of the corps level, and will be used accordingly. What threatens the first four phase lines, is not missiles, but DPRK artillery tubes, which there is a great abundance of.

Second, the DRPK will not immediately "wipe Seoul off the map." Their doctrine is not centered around that, in fact, they will avoid attacking Seoul, out right. The main thrust will be to capture Seoul, not destroy it. The IV and II corps will thrust towards the SMA, and seek to isolate, consolidate, and then stage from. The large artillery barrages will be focused on limiting ROK and US responses to DRPK incursions, the destruction of forward deployed stores, the destruction of lines of travel and communication, the destruction of forward armies, and counter-battery operations. The destruction of Seoul is not even on their immediate priority list, and will be avoided if necessary.

Third, the US military is NOT moving their forces to the south, to escape DPRK "ssm" threat, as you stated. You are completely wrong. If that was the case, why did the US intentionally move their forces closer to the DMZ, during the 1970/80s, and specifically design plans to conduct immediate counter-offensive operations? No, instead, the US military is consolidating their forces on the peninsula. The US military is seeking to go from hundreds of installations, to only a small handful. The Yongsan garrison, located in Seoul, is 600 acres of prime property in the world's 8th largest city. It is no longer necessary, nor strategically important, to maintain such a large urban footprint. Additionally, the super base, Camp Humphreys, is under just as much threat of DRPK missiles, as Yongsan. Moving 60miles to the south is NOT because the Army seeks greater protection.

Forth, the threat of DPRK missiles can continue to decrease, as long as both US and ROK forces continue to develop anti-missile weapons. The ROK navy is fielding the Aegis radar system, and will be able to join the JMSDF, in the ability to shoot down incoming DRPK missiles. The PAC-III Patriot missile, is stationed in theater. And continued development of on-going systems in testing, all amount to a diminished DRPK threat.

As I said, the DPRK's ace in the hole, is their missiles. This test is purely designed to sharpen that ace, and to remind the world that they still hold that card. It legitimizes them as a threat. If the damn thing doesn't fail off the pad, then shoot it down.

-UH60

[Edited 2009-03-27 05:18:18]
 
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par13del
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 12:36 pm



Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 16):
Third, the US military is NOT moving their forces to the south, to escape DPRK "ssm" threat, as you stated. You are completely wrong. If that was the case, why did the US intentionally move their forces closer to the DMZ, during the 1970/80s, and specifically design plans to conduct immediate counter-offensive operations? No, instead, the US military is consolidating their forces on the peninsula. The US military is seeking to go from hundreds of installations, to only a small handful.

I stand corrected, I knew forces were deployed close to the DMZ then later removed, if consolidation is the stated reason I cannot argue with it, and fully accept that, assumption is always the mother of all evils.

Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 16):
Forth, the threat of DPRK missiles can continue to decrease, as long as both US and ROK forces continue to develop anti-missile weapons

I think this has been long overdue, however, it has been ridiculed as a reincarnation of the Reagan Star Wars program. It is interesting to see the option being mentioned on this and other sites of shooting down the missile, yet when Bush proposed implementing the technology which include land based radar, he was laughed at, not supported and no one wanted a part of it, now it seems that the technology is desired. I do not know the percentage that they are currently working with in terms of a successful hit, test have been done and not all 100%, the actual hit of the failed satellite did work, so hopefully if it comes to that, they will be successful.

Long term implications are another story, it will be interesting to see if the US main priority shifts from the nuclear weapons building capability - do they think it is now too late to do anything about them acuiring the bomb - onto the delivery capability.

Strange times indeed.
 
bennett123
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 2:15 pm

Par13del

I was referring to the previous reply.

I think that UH60FtRucker understood my response.

"And like I had said: if they want to play this silly dick measuring contest - lets shoot the frakking thing down, and settle this contest, once and for all.

-UH60"

PS I am releived that his smiley indicates that he is NOT Barak Obama  Wink
 
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par13del
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 2:18 pm



Quoting Bennett123 (Reply 18):
Par13del

I was referring to the previous reply.

No worries my friend, I enjoy the discussions.

Cheers
 
osiris30
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 2:23 pm



Quoting StasisLAX (Reply 7):
Bad idea, IMO. What do you do with all of the brainwashed North Korean zombies, I mean "citizens"?

Well there was an air of tongue in cheek there, but... One way or the other those zombie citizens will be the world's problem in twenty years anyway. North Korea is a big problem and not just from a military perspective.
 
britjap
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 8:06 pm



Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 12):
a communication satellite is about as useful to the DPRK, as tits on a bull. You see, they could tip the damn thing with a freakin' bag of potatoes, because it's payload matters that little.

 checkmark  Exactly right!!!

I would have to agree with UH60; it would be great if it could just be shot down.

Quoting Bennett123 (Reply 9):
Am I missing something here.

These people refer to a Comms satellite and you refer to a missile.

It matters not a bit how you wish to define it.

The Taepodong was conceived and designed for one purpose. As a weapons platform. The fact that they are trying to use it to deliver a satellite to space is very scary. The DPRK has no need for a satellite. They are simply trying to develop payload delivery capability.

As UH60 said, this time is could just as well be a sack of potatoes for all that it matters. But the feedback/data/experience gleaned from this test will just be fed back into the program to improve their current missile technology. As well as testing the new US administration and the sabre rattling publicity, that is what the DPRK is after.

Theoretically they already have the missile tech to hit Japan. They have fired missiles over Japan before and this one is apparently supposed to be going over Japan as well. But it is their avionics/guidance systems that lack quality. People in Japan sometimes joke that in the event of a DPRK attack, Tokyo will be the safest place to be because that is where the North Koreans will aim their missiles at, so that is the least likely place they will fall.

But every test like this performed only goes to improve their tech. and gives them more bargaining power at the table.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 2):
I think it's a bad precedent to begin shooting down spacecraft of other nations. Doing so would be returning one provocative act with another.

I can sympathise with that, but in cases such as this I think the stakes are too high. The DPRK already has developed (limited perhaps) nuclear capability. They must be prevented from acquiring a high quality delivery system as well.

If shooting the thing down helps prevent the DPRK improving their missile tech then I would be in favour. Having said all that, do I honestly think that anyone will try to shoot it down......?

Absolutely not.

I just have to hope that this one fails on launch like the last one.  crossfingers 
 
MCIGuy
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 8:31 pm



Quoting Sv7887 (Reply 8):
Anyone know the status of the Airborne Laser Program? That always excited me in terms of the technology needed to develop it, even better that it's a 747 based platform.

There's a good chance the Obama administration will cancel it.

The best thing about directed energy weapons: Plausible deniability.  Big grin
 
bennett123
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 9:24 pm

Britjap



"The Taepodong was conceived and designed for one purpose. As a weapons platform".

You could argue the same with many of the other launchers used for satellite and manned launches.

Question is once you start shooting em down "just in case", where do you stop.
 
fsnuffer
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 10:14 pm

Newsflash:

North Korea will launch their missile. The West will do nothing about it except run to the TV cameras for their 15 second sound bite denouncing North Korea. The already draconian sanctions will be tightened only slightly as to not risk a Chinese UN veto and in the end the only people to suffer will be the starving North Korean populace.


Move on, nothing left to see here.
 
MCIGuy
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 10:43 pm

Quoting Fsnuffer (Reply 24):
The already draconian sanctions will be tightened only slightly as to not risk a Chinese UN veto and in the end the only people to suffer will be the starving North Korean populace.

As if....as if we dropped the sanctions things would improve for the rank and file N. Korean. Such is the plight of those living under a corrupt Communist dictatorship. The country's wealth is plundered at the whim of the dictator and the expense of it's people, the sanctions have little to do with it.





[Edited 2009-03-27 15:47:41]
 
Oroka
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 11:17 pm

Be a good time to get the YAL-1A ABL out for some early air to air trials  Wink
 
Nicoeddf
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Fri Mar 27, 2009 11:54 pm



Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 25):

As if....as if we dropped the sanctions things would improve for the rank and file N. Korean. Such is the plight of those living under a corrupt Communist dictatorship. The country's wealth is plundered at the whim of the dictator and the expense of it's people, the sanctions have little to do with it.



Quoting StasisLAX (Reply 7):
What do you do with all of the brainwashed North Korean zombies, I mean "citizens"?

One can hardly believe what amount of arrogance and self-righteousness is dropped in this thread.

So the average north korean citizen is a zombie, because he was born in a country and has to live with the consequence? And surely the western truth in the question of the best society must be the one and only plausible and right one?

And of course the UN sanctions have nothing to do with the situation of the average (!) North Korean citizen?

One must certainly ask who the brainwashed zombie is and who at least can claim for himself he didn't have a choice of where to live...

Bennett123

I am absolutely with you. Might be the european view of things, but I cannot understand which right the US (or any ally) has to shot down a satelite delivering rocket in international airspace and above. As Bennett123 has pointed out, where does it stop?

And for the patriots in this thread: I am well aware that the payload is actually a masquerade.

Who has to decide which country should be able to launch rockets and deliver "space payload"? The US? Or the Western World?

I tell you something:
The arrogance of North Korea hasn't helped their case for sure.
But the arrogance of the west to forcefully impose our truth on other nations just makes me sick despite the fact that I highly love to live in a democracy.
 
britjap
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sat Mar 28, 2009 1:07 am



Quoting Bennett123 (Reply 23):
You could argue the same with many of the other launchers used for satellite and manned launches.

Question is once you start shooting em down "just in case", where do you stop.

Sure...ordinarily I would be in complete agreement. But I guess it's a question of trust. In terms of sheer lunacy there is not another regime on the planet that is even in the same league as the DPRK.

Do you really think the DPRK can be trusted with this technology?? Trusted not to use it or to sell it??

Quoting NicoEDDF (Reply 27):
Might be the european view of things

Indeed.

So with due respect, pardon me if I don't consider your opinion on the matter as being worth much. Your country is not about to be deliberately overflown by an ICBM fired from a nation governed by the world's most despotic regime!!! (And an ICBM whose quality does not even come close to giving confidence in a *safe* or controlled flight.)

And this is not the first time this has happened!!!
 
UH60FtRucker
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sat Mar 28, 2009 1:52 am



Quoting NicoEDDF (Reply 27):
Might be the european view of things, but I cannot understand which right the US (or any ally) has to shot down a satelite delivering rocket in international airspace and above.

I think you hit the nail on the head. Just as Americans have a tendency to be culturally-tone deaf, Europeans have a tendency to assume a stance of intellectual infallibility, and a monopoly on the truth. This thread being a great example of both.

Is my solution the right answer? I honestly don't know. But I'm blind to what type of threat these missiles pose, and what their continued development means to the future of the region. This is NOT about a satellite. This is about the delivery system.

So while Europeans will remain safe from these missiles, and will never have to directlydeal with this threat, there are roughly 20 million people in the ROK live within striking range of DRPK artillery tubes, and who all live under the DPRK missile threat. Not to mention the countries most likely to come to the ROK's aid, also have have citizens within range of those weapons.
 
osiris30
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sat Mar 28, 2009 2:27 am



Quoting NicoEDDF (Reply 27):
One can hardly believe what amount of arrogance and self-righteousness is dropped in this thread.

So the average north korean citizen is a zombie, because he was born in a country and has to live with the consequence?

You do realize the average North Korean has been brainwashed into believing the west is on the verge of launching an unprovoked nuclear attack and has been for YEARS, right?

That was (I believe) the reason for the use of the term zombie. There has been a systematic brainwashing campaign for decades in North Korea. They literally expect us to nuke them tomorrow.
 
bennett123
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sat Mar 28, 2009 9:58 am

UH60FtRucker

Would it be fair to say that your location has an impact on your views.
 
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par13del
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sat Mar 28, 2009 12:01 pm



Quoting Bennett123 (Reply 31):
UH60FtRucker

Would it be fair to say that your location has an impact on your views.

This question could be asked of everyone also as it relates to the DPRK nuclear program, why exactly is the US, UN, EU and other nations so involved in trying to prevent them from developing the nuclear program, if countries are free to do as they wish, why not let them do so, if they want to push their population into starvation to deliver a nuclear program is that not also their right?
The same theory applies to Iran, difference is that Iran has the money and is not relying on western aid agencies to feed its population while they divert their resources, that may be a key factor in some of the worlds activities when we choose what we will help countries with and what we will not.

If western aid agencies were not supplying aid to the DPRK, where would they be now, yes they are a closed society and the amount of aid is not that vast but the question remains. Millions were given to build alternative power stations and provide alternate fuels to "encourage" them to abandon their nuclear program, is this in theory a pay me to do what you want me to do and not what I want to do, with that world mindset in place, how exactly do we expect the world to evolve. It did not prevent India, Pakistan, Israel, possibly South Africa from joining or gaining valuable nuclear technology.
 
UH60FtRucker
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sat Mar 28, 2009 2:36 pm



Quoting Bennett123 (Reply 31):

Would it be fair to say that your location has an impact on your views.

Where exactly do you think I am?

If you're referring to my flag, I've selected it simply because my brother is currently in Israel, and was there during the latest conflict.

Quoting Par13del (Reply 32):

So you're saying that we should just assume a hands-off attitude, and allow nations to do as they please?

Well in that case, I submit that all nations should withdraw from all global pollution reduction pacts and treaties. After all, what a nation does within their own boards - no matter what global effect it may have - it is their right to do so, correct? So under this logic, we should be free to spew as much pollutants into the atmosphere, as we please... and if it has global consequences, well screw 'em.

-UH60
 
GDB
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sat Mar 28, 2009 3:31 pm

Before we all get too excited (though the Japanese have a right to be more concerned), we are talking about the same, erratic, inaccurate, poor reliability, missiles by the 'Scrapyard Challenge' method?

This is about politics, the politics of a deeply evil regime trying to trade threats for the aid needed to keep their nation of 'Self Reliance' from imploding even more than it has already.
Kim may enjoy, on his train trips (he's scared of flying), the finest lobsters choppered in daily, while the people starve,
But the regime cannot have too many starving, there is a massive, economic life crushing military to maintain. Though mostly obsolete.
A military that took a long time to fully accept Kim as leader. (The perm, platform shoes, decadent bloated body did not perhaps chime so well with their own view of what an effective military leader should look like).

They have very few cards, they play this one each year (after another failed harvest?)
Just this time more so, the logic being they are just deeper in the shit than usual.

The other part of this hand is the knowledge, that the US policy of going in guns blazing, against a nation with only suspected WMD's-not including nukes any time soon either, had not been repeated against a nation with proven far more advanced WMD programmes, as well as being every bit as erratic as Iraq was pre 1991, if not more so.
And also, DPRK have been shown to actually have funded terror, not made up in Cheney's office 'proved' with Iraq.

So despite the creaking obsolesce of the DPRK forces, both sides know a war would be devastating to the whole of Korea, it would only go one way in the end, defeat and destruction for DPRK, but a lot, many more than with Iraq and at a much faster rate, of body bags would go back to the US by then.
For all it's weakness, DPRK is not the militarily enfeebled Iraq of 1991- 2003.

They also sense the US is heavily stretched elsewhere, they will rattle their not as impressive as they look Sabre's yet again.
However, if they don't get what they want, what is the next step for them?
They are in their own way every bit as constrained as the US in options here, unlike the US , the desperate option for them means destruction.
The small group running this Orwellian state live well, unlike the rest of those under them.
Will they really want to bring that house down with them?
 
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par13del
Posts: 10993
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sat Mar 28, 2009 3:58 pm



Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 33):
So you're saying that we should just assume a hands-off attitude, and allow nations to do as they please?

No UH60FtRucker, I was asking the question in response to Bennet123 question which seemed to indicate that your response was based on where you were located, trying to gauge how that works in the international world.

Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 33):
Well in that case, I submit that all nations should withdraw from all global pollution reduction pacts and treaties. After all, what a nation does within their own boards - no matter what global effect it may have - it is their right to do so, correct? So under this logic, we should be free to spew as much pollutants into the atmosphere, as we please... and if it has global consequences, well screw 'em.

Personally, there have been times when the "moral and rightous" give vent in world affairs I wish this could be done, but that was in my young and impeteous days. Unfortunately, we have too many persons today who cling to the belief that if is is not directly affecting them they should not get involved, like muggings or robbery, everyone will call the police but no one will venture out to help, until they are the victims then cannot understand why no one is willing to help.

Unfortunately, too many persons have been willing to help the DPRK in their ongoing course of nation building, they did not get to where they are now with technology without out-side help, what the world now faces is a nation who will essentially blackmail the free world to feed and clothe its population because we fear the consequences of what we helped to create.
 
MCIGuy
Posts: 1445
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2006 8:15 am

RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sat Mar 28, 2009 4:29 pm

My father was in the 1st Marines. He had to lay in piles of dead bodies to avoid Chinese patrols after his platoon was wiped out at Chosin. Oh, and he wasn't drafted, he signed up. I'd hate to see the freedom that was earned be squandered by some misguided person or people at the UN.
 
Mir
Posts: 19491
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 3:55 am

RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sat Mar 28, 2009 11:28 pm



Quoting NicoEDDF (Reply 27):
So the average north korean citizen is a zombie, because he was born in a country and has to live with the consequence?

It's not the fault of the North Korean people, but yes, if the regime should suddenly disappear tomorrow there would be a lot of people who would have no idea what to do with themselves, and they would be a problem for everyone else in the region, particularly China. Think of all the trouble that Eastern Europe went through (and still is going through), and then remember that North Korea is far more of a dictatorship than the Soviet Union was prior to its collapse.

Quoting NicoEDDF (Reply 27):
And of course the UN sanctions have nothing to do with the situation of the average (!) North Korean citizen?

They really don't. The North Korean government would keep their citizens poor even if there were no sanctions, because it's in their interest to do so. To the west's credit, they have tried to target the sanctions toward Kim Jong Il, restricting things like cognac, Hollywood movies and porn, but sanctions can really only do so much.

-Mir
 
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par13del
Posts: 10993
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sun Mar 29, 2009 12:58 am



Quoting Mir (Reply 37):
It's not the fault of the North Korean people, but yes, if the regime should suddenly disappear tomorrow there would be a lot of people who would have no idea what to do with themselves, and they would be a problem for everyone else in the region, particularly China.

I'm not sure how concerned China is with this, they are also a controlling society, my opinion, if they thought the leader of the DPRK was a problem that they could not handle they would have gotton rid of him a long time ago. North Korea can be a distraction for the west while China continues on it march as everyone is preoccupied elsewhere. Imagine if we were not looking at Korea, how would China look, military build up is continuing, missile deployment facing Taiwan continuing, influence program contonuing to grow throught the region and the rest of the world, if Korea were suddenly at peace we would suddenly look at China and be scared.
 
britjap
Posts: 264
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 12:47 pm

RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sun Mar 29, 2009 2:08 am



Quoting Par13del (Reply 38):

There is some truth in that.

The point though is that if the DPRK regime were to collapse, it would create a humanitarian crisis of monumental proportions.

Well...North Korea has been in a permanent state of crisis for quite some time, but it remains essentially a North Korean problem (as they are a closed state). Were the regime to collapse however, North Korea's problem would instantly become the problem of her neighbours as well. And there is no doubt that many North Korean people, (quite probably millions??) would attempt to enter into China across the northern border. This is a consequence that China, even with its new found wealth, does NOT want to deal with.

To put it simply...North Korean citizens (refugees) are not kept out of China by the Chinese so much as they are kept inside North Korea by the DPRK government.

So in that regard the maintenance of the DPRK is important to China. Plus, as you say, they probably sometimes have their uses to the Chinese leadership as well.
 
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par13del
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RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sun Mar 29, 2009 1:37 pm



Quoting BritJap (Reply 39):
To put it simply...North Korean citizens (refugees) are not kept out of China by the Chinese so much as they are kept inside North Korea by the DPRK government.

I must admit that I did not know that, I have seen articles written of refugee camps by the Chinese border, but maybe because of my pre-dispositions, I just took it for granted that the Chinese were ensuring that their border was controlled. Indeed, my belief is also that if the DPRK were to collapse, the south and regions within boat range would bear the brunt of the crisis and not their neighbours to the north, we have seen how they deal with their own citizens.

Now you have me going back to the drawing board on my assumptions of how things are in the region.

Thanks
 
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Spacepope
Posts: 5554
Joined: Tue Dec 28, 1999 11:10 am

RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sun Mar 29, 2009 2:55 pm

And then there are the rumored massive "Illegal immigrant" settlements of "escaped" North Koreans that have set up camp on the Russian side of the border. The governor of the russian state that borders the DPRK says they could take 210,000 in event of war, though there is a highway and rail crossing across the border there as well, so the numbers coming over could be higher.
 
UH60FtRucker
Posts: 3252
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 9:15 am

RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sun Mar 29, 2009 3:18 pm

Yeah... because this sounds exactly like a simple satellite launch.  Yeah sure

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090329/ap_on_re_as/as_nkorea_missile

Quote:
North Korea is preparing to launch a short- or medium-range missile, possibly right after it carries out its plan to fire a long-range rocket in early April, a Japanese newspaper reported Sunday.

even more interesting:

Quote:
Sankei said in a separate dispatch from Washington that 15 personnel from the Iranian satellite and missile development company Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group are staying in North Korea at the invitation of the North Korean government.

Quoting unnamed intelligence sources in Washington it said are close to North Korean affairs, Sankei said the Iranians are likely to join North Korean preparations for the launch and also observe it. The report said North Korea sent missile experts to Iran when it launched a satellite in February.

Yeah sounds like a grand ole' party over there in the DPRK. Seriously, shoot both of the freakin' things down, and crash the party those thugs plan on throwing.

-UH60
 
MCIGuy
Posts: 1445
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2006 8:15 am

RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sun Mar 29, 2009 3:55 pm

I'm all for giving the benefit of the doubt in the absence of hard evidence but there are exceptions, like when when weapons of mass destruction and megadeath are involved.
 
GDB
Posts: 14412
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sun Mar 29, 2009 4:00 pm

It may be unwise to be too in favor of the US bringing down satellites.
Because for one, they are not the only ones with the ability to do that, the other, those who also have that ability-or will develop it in the foreseeable future, might just be much less reliant of satellite technology than the US and West is.
Commercially and militarily.
They'd not be unaffected, but the US military has guaranteed access to satellites for various means, so deeply embedded in their posture.
 
Lumberton
Posts: 4176
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 7:34 am

RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sun Mar 29, 2009 4:26 pm

SECDEF has said we won't shoot it down.
Gates: U.S. Won't Shoot Down N. Korean Missile

Quote:
"I think if we had a missile that was heading for Hawaii, that looked like it was headed for Hawaii or something like that, we might consider it. I don't think we have any plans to do anything like that at this point," Gates said.

Asked if the launch was set to happen, the Pentagon chief said: "I think it probably will."

"I would say we're not prepared to do anything about it," he added, following Keating's remark in an interview with ABC News.

 
gsosbee
Posts: 365
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2005 8:40 am

RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sun Mar 29, 2009 4:35 pm

Anyone who believes that any shot by the NK's is anything more than a military test needs a real dose of reality. Yes any country can test whatever they like over their own airspace. When those tests involve over flying another country's airspace without permission, the other country has a right to stop it. It would be the Japanese who would take action if there is an overfly.
 
britjap
Posts: 264
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 12:47 pm

RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Sun Mar 29, 2009 6:18 pm



Quoting Gsosbee (Reply 46):
When those tests involve over flying another country's airspace without permission, the other country has a right to stop it. It would be the Japanese who would take action if there is an overfly.

I fully agree and would be in total support if something were done, but it won't happen. The constitution would not permit it unless it were actually falling towards Japan. There is always a chance that could happen though as NK's missiles are not exactly very dependable!!

Quoting Par13del (Reply 40):
I just took it for granted that the Chinese were ensuring that their border was controlled.

I'm sure they do, but I would say it still represents the *easiest* avenue of escape for North Koreans. Sadly for them it is a real gauntlet, because I believe, China has a repatriation policy, meaning, any North Koreans found by the authorities entering China are returned to the DPRK. I have no idea what happens to them after that but I think it would be a fair guess to say that they will never be seen again.

That is why the objective of many North Korean escapees, is to get to an embassy or consulate of say European or SE Asian nations that usually have a policy of repatriating those people to the South. And I may really be wrong here but I believe the ROK has a policy of accepting all such refugees from the North. (They often have family in the south)
There are even charities that exist to help smuggle these people from the border to the embassies. Very courageous for all those involved!!
 
ThirtyEcho
Posts: 1411
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2002 1:21 am

RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Mon Mar 30, 2009 5:01 am

Why are all the DPRK missiles named "dong"?

Could we circumvent all of this missile stuff by handing the DPRK guards at the DMZ a box of Viagra addressed to the Dear Leader?

If anyone can make a dong wilt it is Secretary Clinton.
 
Mir
Posts: 19491
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 3:55 am

RE: North Korean Missile Launch Will Have Consequences

Mon Mar 30, 2009 5:27 am



Quoting Par13del (Reply 38):
my opinion, if they thought the leader of the DPRK was a problem that they could not handle they would have gotton rid of him a long time ago.

It's not Kim Jong Il they worry about, it's millions of North Koreans who would have no idea what to do with themselves flooding over the border should his regime fall. China doesn't want to see North Korea do something stupid any less than the US does, because they know that the resulting reaction will create that very problem.

-Mir

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